Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Money and Markets’ Issue 489 | January 2015
6 Safe Money Forecasts for 2015!Lingering Danger of First Rate Hikes in Years More Trouble in Russia, Europe, Middle East Global Money Tsunami to Intensify Blow-off in U.S. stocks — set-up for future crash? And more ...
SAFE MONEY REPORT
Inside this Issue ...Gold and Energy . . . . . . . . . . . page 10
Positions At A Glance . . . . . . . . page 11
Questions and Answers . . . . . . page 12Safe Money Ratings . . . . . . . . . . page 6
Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 8
2014 brought a little — and sometimes a lot — of everything for investors: Another strong year for the best, highly rated stocks ... the biggest, broadest U.S. dollar rally in years ... suppressed interest rates thanks to QE on an epic scale
overseas (even as the Federal Reserve wound it down to zero here).
Throw in a Saudi-led oil war ... a Russian invasion in Eastern Europe ... an ISIS takeover of Mideast territory larger than the U.K. ... the worst airline tragedies in decades ... fresh fighting in Libya and Syria ... and mass pro-tests here at home ... and you can see: It was one heck of a tumultuous year!
But all my indicators suggest 2015 will be even more wild and wooly. That makes the well-informed, objective, conflict-of-interest-free guidance you get from Safe Money more valuable than ever before!
So where are we headed over the next 12 months? What surprises might this brand new year have in store for us? How can you navigate them prudently and profitably? Here
are my six forecasts for the year that follows — along with specific actions for you to take for each.
Forecast #1Fed Rate Hikes Loom in 2015!
We’ve been living in a fantasy world when it comes to the cost of money – interest rates. The Federal Reserve has kept them pegged near zero for so long, Wall Street has grown accustomed to that regime, and assumed it will last forever.
But the Fed itself is now signaling that interest rates must rise. Multiple Fed poli-cymakers are dissenting with the dovish ma-jority, and pushing for action. So just as I forecast that QE would be rolled back long before most of Wall Street saw it coming, I’m now forecasting that the likelihood of a rate hike is rising fast.
The collapse in oil prices we’ve seen may push the date out further into 2015. But given the fall in U.S. unemployment, the increase in financial-market risk-taking, and 5% GDP growth, rate hikes are the natural sequel to the elimination of QE.
Mike Larson, Editor
SAFE MONEY REPORTPage 2
What impacts can you expect? Well, just as in past Fed hiking cycles, the damage will come in stages. The trouble will first manifest itself in bonds and other fixed-income invest-ments. It will also impact currency markets, because the relative cost of money is a key driver of currency values.
Your action: Continue to avoid most fixed-income securities and related ETFs. The ex-ception would be shorter-term, low-duration investments I highlight on page 9.
Forecast #2Russian Aggression, Middle East Turmoil and European Debt Woes
Will Continue to Ramp Up!Besides monetary policy, several major for-
eign threats will impact U.S. markets this year.
Just ask yourself: Is Vladimir Putin done making waves in Eastern Europe? Does Greece look like it can stay in the euro zone forever? Do oil supplies in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and else-where seem completely safe to you? Heck, no!
As a result, money is being driven to the U.S. from all three of these major fronts in the global battles for hearts, minds, money and resources ...
Russia: I don’t see Putin backing down one iota, despite the collapse in the ruble and sanctions from the West. If anything, those pressures will boost his popularity ratings, in-tensify his resolve and prompt him to lash out even more — seizing assets and territory to help his country fight off short-term weakness.
Jihad: For every terrorist leader the U.S. or its allies takes out, another always takes his place. And for every country that experiences a lull in sectarian strife (such as Israel with the tempo-rary end of hostilities in Gaza), another suffers a sudden surge in confl ict (such as Libya, where militants besieged and set fi re to portions of the country’s largest oil port in December). There is no sign this is going to change ... and every sign it’s going to continue to get worse.
European debt crisis: This crisis STILL keeps flaring up four years after it began, and the latest example takes us right back to where it all started — Greece.
Late last year, three parliamentary votes failed in Athens, forcing snap elections this month. Those elections will likely usher into power an anti-austerity, anti-euro party called Syriza, a prospect that’s causing Greek stocks and bonds to crater again!
Throughout 2014, these crises were unable to derail the market run for more than a short period of time. Instead, they helped drive ever more fear money to U.S. financial markets.
But at some point in the future, if these pres-sures intensify later in 2015, they could help set the stage for a world-class hangover in 2016!
Your action: Avoid far-flung, high-risk in-vestments like Russian, African, and South American ETFs and mutual funds, and direct your capital towards more domestically fo-cused ones instead.
Forecast #3The Global Money Tsunami
Intensifi es ... Impacting Stocks, Currencies, and More!
Five months ago, I alerted you to one of the most persistent — and least understood — forces driving up markets: The massive flood of flight capital heading our way from trouble spots around the world.
To see how very real — and how very power-ful — its impact has been, look no further than the currency market! Money poured out of weaker foreign currencies last year, fl ooded into ours, and led to one of the broadest dollar rallies in years.
In the waning days of 2014, the British pound hit a 15-month low of 1.55 against the dol-lar. The euro hit a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.2130. The Australian dollar plunged to a five-and-a-half-year low just over 0.80, while the Japanese yen sank to a seven-year low of 0.82.
by Mike Larson Page 3
The carnage has been even worse in select emerging markets: The Brazilian real tanked 11% against the buck in 2014, while the Rus-sian ruble collapsed 43% to a record low!
Why? Scared money naturally gravitates to the largest, most stable market. Meanwhile, growth in Europe, Asia, South America, and other regions hasn’t been up to snuff. But growth here has been the strongest (by some measures) since the early-to-mid-2000s!
Now, the European Central Bank could be just days away from unleashing a fresh, massive wave of QE. The goal? To balloon its balance sheet by at least a trillion euros — mostly adding govern-ment bonds to its existing purchases of private bonds and asset-backed securities.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also just announced that it would start charging — rath-er than paying — banks interest to park money with it. That means interest rates BELOW zero, to the tune of 0.25%.
The result: Oceans of liquidity are washing up here, driving both the buck and U.S. stocks higher!
Your action: Stick with your remaining shares of the ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO), which have handed you open gains of 30.6% in just 9 months! Also continue to avoid investing in all those markets or currencies where the central bank has virtually declared war on money. But watch carefully for instruc-tions on when to bag more profits, because this move is getting extended and could reach an irrational extreme in 2015!
Forecast #4Blow-Off Highs, Setting up for an
Ugly Hangover in 2016!So far, we’ve established that:
A) The Fed is likely going to start raising rates here ...
B) But turmoil overseas is getting worse, not better …
C) So money is increasingly flowing to where it will be treated best .
In this situation, it can be tricky to predict exactly where the U.S. stock market will go, and precisely when it will get there. But here’s the most plausible scenario: A blow-off move to euphoric highs in many stocks THIS year, followed by an ugly hangover NEXT year!
Look, all over the world central banks are opening the money floodgates: Japan is print-ing 100 trillion yen every few weeks, and un-leashing those trillions into the marketplace. The European Union is buying tens of billions of euros worth of bonds every few weeks, and planning to launch full-scale QE within weeks — or even days — of this issue’s release. China is flooding its banking system with tens of billions of yuan. And a raft of other foreign central banks are doing the same.
So even as the U.S. Fed is dialing back its largesse, others are stepping into the breach. That’s leading to stretched valuations in many, many asset classes.
High-end U.S. real estate is one obvious ex-ample, with $100-million-plus listings starting to proliferate in cities like New York and Mi-ami that attract foreign capital.
Bonds themselves are another, with prices rising so high that yields on Japanese and Ger-man debt have sunk to record lows. In fact, the yield on a 2-year German note just hit NEGA-TIVE 10 basis points, the lowest in history!
Valuations on tech startups are also ramp-ing higher — at a rate we haven’t seen since the dot-com bubble! A whopping 70 startups around the world are now being valued at a billion dollars or more, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’s double their level of 1999-2000.
You’ve probably heard of Uber Technolo-gies, the car service start-up that’s competing with taxi operators in many cities worldwide. It didn’t even exist a half-decade ago. But it just
SAFE MONEY REPORTPage 4
Disclaimer: Safe Money Report is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment or trading advice to its subscribers. The money you allocate to speculative trading should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. While every effort is made to simulate the actual experience of subscribers, all performance figures must be considered hypothetical. References to examples of past performance are not intended to provide a total picture of positions results, and past results are no guarantee of future performance.
About the EditorMike Larson has seen a little bit of everything in the decade he’s been following the interest rate, housing and mortgage markets …
» The 1998 bond market meltdown, which forced the Federal Reserve to step in and
help bail out Long Term Capital Management.
» The great surge in interest rates of the late 1990s … and the colossal collapse that began in 2001.
» The biggest housing bubble in modern U.S. history, aided and abetted by some of the most reckless mortgage lending ever.
Mike got his start tracking the financial markets at Bloomberg News while still in college. He graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out.
“There’s always something new going on in interest rates. And because rates impact virtually every corner of our financial lives, you simply have to stay abreast of the latest developments.”
Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001, and has worn a number of hats at the company: Analyst. Writer. Trader. Editor. He shares his insights with subscribers like you as a contributing editor at Money and Markets, and editor of Safe Money.
SAFE MONEY RESOURCES
Copyright © 2015 by Weiss Research, Inc., Safe Money Report (ISSN 1086-251X), 4400 Northcorp Parkway, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410; 561-627-3300; Sales: 800-291-8545. Subscription rate: $198 for 12 monthly issues. Single issue price: $16.50. Publisher: Martin D. Weiss. Editor: Michael D. Larson. Research Supervisor: Amber Dakar. Staff: Michael Fenimore, Marty Sleva, Mandeep Singh Rai, Richard Suwanprakorn and Julie Trudeau. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Safe Money Report, 4400 Northcorp Parkway, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410.
executed a funding round that valued the com-pany at $41.2 billion. That was a 12-fold in-crease in only a year, and it values Uber higher than 403 of the companies in the S&P 500!
Another worrisome sign: Robert Shiller, the Nobel Laureate economist who has warned of previous bouts of irrational exu-berance and resulting crashes, has a valua-tion measure called the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE for short). It’s running around 27 now.
Shiller’s work shows his CAPE ratio rose higher than that only three times in the last 130+ years: 1929, 2000, and 2007. You probably don’t need me to tell you what happened next!
But remember: Some of the biggest gains come at the tail end of a bull market run. Exit too early — or go short prematurely — and it’ll cost you! You’ll leave big gains on the table, or worse, pile up serious losses.
Here’s the key: Nearly all of these warning signs are still only flashing yellow rather than red, and we could see a blow-off move in some sectors before the subsequent plunge. So I don’t want to jump the gun ... yet.
Your action: Continue to invest in stocks prudently. Maintain the select, limited hedges I’ve recommended. Then stay alert for updates throughout the year. As we get toward the end of the year ... and if we get a blow off move higher ... that could very well be the time to cut long positions down sharply, and ramp up our hedging activity!
Forecast #5Highly-Rated Stocks with
a Domestic Focus and Attractive Yields Will Prosper!
Given my forecast for a rising market NOW, followed by pain LATER, it’s imperative that you remember the golden rule for investing success in 2015: Slow growth overseas, stron-ger growth in the U.S.
by Mike Larson Page 5
Already, even while Italy, Russia, Brazil, Ja-pan, and China are struggling or tumbling into recession, the U.S. is continuing to gain strength.
Example: We learned in late December that U.S. GDP actually grew 5% in the third quarter rather than the previously reported 3.9%. That was the fastest growth in any quarter in 11 years!
That’s why we see great investment op-portunities in companies that largely focus on domestic businesses. Think utilities, consumer staples, health care, and more.
Your action: Despite concerns about in-creasingly rich valuations in some portions of the market, stick with the winners I’ve been telling you about — and take advantage of the additional pick I have in this issue! They have the added benefit of attractive Weiss Stock Rat-ings, giving you confidence in their underly-ing, fundamental financial health.
Forecast #6Energy Stocks Will Offer the Most
Compelling Bargains in Years, if Not Decades!
Other than the kinds of stocks I highlighted in my last forecast, where can you find incred-ibly attractive opportunities? Energy. And more specifically, domestic energy.
Go back to the mid-1980s. Back then, global petroleum prices began falling as crude de-mand shrank. Then in 1986, they collapsed — plunging from around $30 a barrel to only $10 in just a couple of months.
Why? The Saudis opened the taps all the way to beat non-OPEC suppliers into submis-sion and to keep the world hooked on their oil.
The fallout was widespread. Production in U.S. states like Oklahoma and Texas tanked, and unemployment in the region surged. Oil-field equipment sold for pennies on the dollar at auction, while lenders with heavy energy ex-posure imploded. Bank failures in Texas alone jumped to 175 in 1988 from just three in 1983.
As for energy stocks, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) struggled throughout 1985. Then they rapidly dropped 14% and 17% in early 1986 as oil tanked.
But if you bought into the teeth of that crisis, you made out like a bandit! Chevron bottomed out, then surged 88.6% in value from mid-1986 through late-1987. Exxon-Mobil surged 90.1%! Oil itself didn’t see those $10 lows again until 1998, amid the Long-Term Capital Manage-ment and emerging markets meltdown.
This time around, I’m already seeing signs the “smart money” is looking to take advantage of energy-sector bargains. Energy ETFs took in more than $3.1 billion in December; quadruple the yearly average and topping the previous monthly record from 2007.
Meanwhile, the Saudis are facing more and more pain as a result of their intransigence on production cuts. The country gets more than 90% of its revenue from oil sales, and its breakeven oil price is estimated around $85 a barrel. So it’s facing a record budget defi cit of $38.6 billion in 2015 as a result of the recent price declines.
My take: It simply can’t stomach these pric-es for long — at least not as long as diversified economies like ours. That means we could see price-stabilizing and/or price-boosting produc-tion cuts OPEC-wide early in 2015.
Your action: Stick with the energy plays I’ve recommended, and be prepared to add more. The bargains I’m seeing in the energy patch now are every bit as juicy as the ones we saw in the post-crash environment in 1986.
As you can see, the next 12 months should be incredibly eventful, volatile, and potentially rewarding. But they’re also full of possible pit-falls. I’ll continue to help you grab all the op-portunities I can ... while remaining cognizant and wary of the risks that lie ahead.
See my remaining recommendations in this issue — then strap in, buckle up, and get ready for a rocking 2015!
SAFE MONEY REPORTPage 6
SAFE MONEY RATINGS TODAY
How Does S&P 500 Stack Up in Our Foreign Vs. Domestic Screen?
Last month, I evaluated the entire universe of stocks rated by our Weiss Stock Ratings. I sorted them to identify which A) Received the highest (or lowest) ratings and B) Were the most (or least) focused on the domestic market.
Why? Simple: Our economy is doing much bet-ter than foreign economies in Europe, Asia, and South America! So domestically focused compa-nies are attracting more investor dollars.
The trends driving that outperformance haven’t changed. If anything, they’ve intensifi ed.
So this month, I zeroed in on the S&P 500. After all, the stocks in the benchmark aver-age are some of the biggest, most liquid in the world. Chances are you own many of them ei-ther directly or through an ETF or mutual fund. So it helps to know which stack up well in terms of their sales breakdown and ratings.
Once again, our Top Ten list on this page in-cludes S&P 500 companies with both the highest ratings and percentage of US. sales; our Bottom Ten list on page 7, those with the worst Weiss Ratings and the lowest percentage of U.S. sales.
You can see that Lincoln National (LNC), the diversified insurance and investment man-agement firm, came out on top. It sports an “A+” rating and generates 100% of its sales here in the U.S. Its shares just hit a six-year high.
On the flip side, gold miner Newmont Min-ing (NEM) is rated all the way down at “D+”. It generates all of its revenue in foreign mar-kets and it has lost more than 17 percent of its value in the past year.
Bottom line: It still makes sense to pursue a “domestic over foreign” investment strategy!
SAFE MONEY RATINGS TODAY
C+
Top 10 S&P 500 U.S. Focused Firms
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A+
A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Lincoln National Corp
TICKER: LNC % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 100%
Wells Fargo & Co
TICKER: WFC % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 100%
Allstate Corp/The
TICKER: ALL % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 97%
Capital One Financial Corp
TICKER: COF % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 94%
Principal Financial Group Inc
TICKER: PFG % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 88%
Amgen Inc
TICKER: AMGN % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 78%
LyondellBasell Industries NV
TICKER: LYB % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 50%
Amphenol Corp
TICKER: APH % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 32%
Western Digital Corp
TICKER: WDC % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 22%
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The
TICKER: BK % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 63%
Source: Weiss Ratings, Inc. Stocks ratings are based on data from
January 2, 2015; A = Excellent, B = Good, C = Fair, D = Weak, E = Very Weak
by Mike Larson Page 7
SAFE MONEY RATING TRENDSThe chart and table you see below are based on
data from our Weiss Ratings stock model, which objectively weighs the risk and reward of invest-ing in 10,164 stocks traded on U.S. exchanges.
Each trading day of the year, our model gener-ates and updates ratings that range from A+ to E-. As with all our ratings, A = excellent, B = good, C = fair, D = weak, and E = very weak. More-over, among our stock ratings, A and B are equiv-alent to “buy”; C can generally be interpreted as “hold”; while D and E are akin to a “sell.”
Our Ratings Distribution chart shows you many buys, holds and sells our model is cur-rently identifying. The tally for early January was 2,910 buys, 3,089 holds, and 4,165 sells. That represents another month of deterioration in market internals, a trend that needs to be monitored closely as we roll further into 2015.
-
Buy Hold Sell TrendCurrent 2910 3089 4165
1 Month Ago 2957 3048 4143
3 Months Ago 3073 3111 4071
6 Months Ago 2934 2949 4093
Bottom 10 S&P 500 U.S. Focused Firms
D+
D+
D+
C-
C-
C-
C-
C-
C-
C-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Newmont Mining Corp
TICKER: NEM % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 0%
Avon Products Inc
TICKER: AVP % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 13%
Amazon.com Inc
TICKER: AMZN % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 31%
News Corp
TICKER: NWSA % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 43%
Adobe Systems Inc
TICKER: ADBE % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 48%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
TICKER: VRTX % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 74%
Actavis plc
TICKER: ACT % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 75%
QEP Resources Inc
TICKER: QEP % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 100%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co
TICKER: PXD % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 100%
Tenet Healthcare Corp
TICKER: THC % OF SALES FROM U.S.: 100%
Source: Weiss Ratings, Inc. Stocks ratings are based on data from
January 2, 2015; A = Excellent, B = Good, C = Fair, D = Weak, E = Very Weak
SAFE MONEY REPORTPage 8
SAFE MONEY STRATEGIESwhile — Treehouse Foods (THS). Meriting a Weiss Stock Rating of “Buy,” Treehouse is a Steady-Eddie grower in the food and beverage space that has been expanding organically and through smart, well-timed acquisitions.
It now sells everything from powdered soups and macaroni and cheese to pickles and single-serve coffee refills. Sales have more than doubled from just $1.5 billion a half-de-cade ago to an estimated $3.5 billion for 2014 on the whole.
But unlike many mega-manufacturers in the industry, Treehouse still has ample room to grow. It bought Flagstone Foods for $860 million in July to expand its presence in the healthy snack market, adding nut, trail mix, and dried fruit products to its portfolio. It also added Protenergy Natural Foods of Canada in May for $150 million, adding more soup and sauce products.
That’s helping THS make steady progress since its mid-2014 breakout from technical resistance. Plus, THS is relatively insulated from the turmoil we’re seeing in overseas markets like Europe because the lion’s share of its sales is generated in North America. I recommend you buy 50 shares of THS at the market right away!
Portfolio UpdateMeanwhile, you should have added two
new picks last month — Wex Inc. (WEX) and Macquarie Infrastructure Company (MIC). Good.
I also recommended you part ways with the last of your ProShares Short Real Estate (REK) and Oneok Partners (OKS) shares. The moves were part of a year-end clean out of positions that simply weren’t working.
In other news, Nike (NKE) delivered an-other solid quarter in mid-December. It re-ported $655 million, or 74 cents per share, in earnings in the three-month period that ended
The euro currency simply can NOT get out of its own way! After toying with 1.40 against the U.S. dollar this spring, it has plunged virtually nonstop. In fact, it fell as low as 1.1815 earlier this month — the low-est level since 2006!
That’s bad news for citizens across the pond, whose wealth is disappearing before their eyes. But it’s great news for the ProShares Ultra-Short Euro (EUO), which I recommended last April. You already bagged gains of 14.4 per-cent and 17.2 percent on two rounds of shares, and your remaining 200 shares are showing open gains of up to 30.6 percent!
My recommendation: Hold! We’re get-ting extended on this move, and the time to grab more profits could be coming soon. But the laundry list of bearish euro fundamentals hasn’t gone away: Weak European growth ... more money printing in Frankfurt than Washington ... stifling business regulation ... cross-border political wrangling ... Russian saber-rattling ... and fears of a “Grexit” thanks to a major shift in the Athens government.
Steady Growth, Strong Performance Make This Food Play a Winner!
Meanwhile, I recommend you add back an oldie but goodie name we haven’t owned in a
Recommendation 1. Buy 50 shares of Treehouse Foods (THS) at the market.
EUO Soars as Euro Tanks! SAM, DTE, MKC Hit new Highs ... But Energy, Materials Plays Struggle!
What to Buy now ...
by Mike Larson Page 9
November 30. That was a hefty 23 percent year-over-year gain on a 15 percent rise in revenue to $7.38 billion.
Stick with your remaining 30 shares, which were recently up 17 percent. Or buy that many now if you’re not on board yet.
Anyone who owned Boston Beer Co. (SAM) the past couple of months could afford to drink champagne rather than two-buck chuck on New Year’s Eve. That’s because the stock broke out to an all-time high at year-end. You should have open gains of about 8.3 percent on your 20 shares. Hold for more! Or purchase them if you don’t own any.
DTE Energy Co. (DTE) had a strong finish to 2014, breaking out to an all-time high in December. Research firm UBS also recently upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Neutral.” Hold, or buy 50 shares now if you aren’t on board.
Over at Tenet Healthcare (THC), long-time director Jeb Bush resigned from the hospital firm’s board in late December. But the move doesn’t stem from any earnings or strategy-related problems. It’s because the former Florida governor may run for presi-dent, and he’s trying to sever or modify some business relationships ahead of a potential campaign. I still think the stock has promise. So hold your 75 shares, or buy them at the market now.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) has pulled back to levels where the stock broke out in mid-2014. The catalyst? Some concern over demand from energy industry customers. But in a mid-December update, the domes-tic steel manufacturer said it’s still seeing strong demand from automotive, manufac-turing, and construction-industry custom-ers. So hold your 200 shares, or buy now if you’re not on board.
McCormick & Co (MKC) just hiked its quarterly dividend to 40 cents per share
from 37 cents per share. That’s what you like to see as a shareholder. And the move is nothing new for the spice and seasonings company. It has raised its payout every year for the last 29!
If you own 75 shares, hold. If you don’t, buy at the market.
Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) took a hit in December along with virtually every energy-related company and yield vehicle. But the fiscal first-quarter results the propane distribu-tion firm released last month looked just fine. Gross profit rose 8 percent to a record $154.7 million, while adjusted earnings before inter-est, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose almost 30 percent.
So hold your 150 FGP shares or buy that many at the market now.
Finally, aircraft leasing firm Aircastle LTD (AYR) has been on a tear since Octo-ber. It hit a seven-year high right at the end of 2014, pushing your total return to as high as 27 percent. With a still-attractive dividend yield of 4.2 percent, AYR remains a hold in my book. Or if you don’t own any shares yet, buy 125 now.
If I didn’t mention a position here, and you’re wondering what to do, remember to check the portfolio table on page 11. It al-ways contains instructions for existing and new subscribers!
As for your cash and cash-like holdings, I recommend 100 shares of the Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF (GSY), 200 shares of the SPDR Barclays Short Term Corporate Bond ETF (SCPB), and 100 shares of the iShares 1-3 Year Trea-sury Bond ETF (SHY). The remainder can be parked in short-term Treasuries or a Treasury-only money fund. You’ll find a list of our favorite funds online here: www.moneyandmarkets.com/treasury-only-money-market-funds.
SAFE MONEY REPORTPage 10
SAFE MONEY GOLD & ENERGY
What the 1980s Can Tell (and Show!) Us About Energy in the 2010s!
In my main article, I told you that I see a lot of parallels between the energy market in the mid-1980s and the energy market in the mid-2010s. Now let me show you what I’m talking about.
On the chart below, you’ll see what hap-pened to crude oil futures when the Saudis de-cided to flood the market with petroleum back in the Ronald Reagan era. Prices fell from just over $30 a barrel to less than $10, all in the span of less than five months!
We can’t track what the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) did back then, since sector ETFs didn’t come along until several years later. But we can look at the performance of the biggest energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). News flash: It wasn’t pretty! They
dropped at double-digit rates early on in the year as the arrows indicate in my second chart below.
But you can also see that XOM shares bot-tomed out at a split-adjusted price of around $6. A year and a half later, they changed hands for more than $12! CVX shares fell to as low as $8.56. But by the summer of 1987, they were going for more than $16!
As the saying goes, history doesn’t re-peat itself, but it does rhyme. With oil prices down roughly 56% from their high last year, it seems likely to me that we’ve already seen the lion’s share of the resulting pain in the energy patch.
So stick with 50 shares of Brookfield Re-newable Energy Partners LP (BEP), 150 shares of Ferrellgas Partners (FGP), 150 shares of Northern Tier Energy (NTI), and 75 shares of FreightCar America (RAIL). Or buy that many shares of each position if you don’t already own them
Also hold your $5,000 worth of gold bul-lion. Or buy that much now.
Oil Collapse in 1986 as the Saudis Played Hardball ...
Source: Bloomberg
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10Jun-85 Oct-85 Mar-86 Jul-86 Dec-86
... but After Initially Getting Smacked, EnergyStocks Soared!
Source: Bloomberg
$17
$15
$13
$11
$9
$7
$5Jan-85 Jul-85 Feb-86 Sep-86 Mar-87 Oct-87
CVX: 88.6% Gain!
XOM: 90.1% Gain!
SAFE MONEY POSITIONS AT A GLANCEInitial
Purchase DateCompany Name (Ticker)
Most Recent Trade Date
# of Shares
Avg. Cost Basis Per Share ($) $ Gain/Loss
Total Return (%) Current Recommendation (What to do if you don’t own it.)
Safe Money Report Overall Position Performance
SMR S&P500
* Including dividends. 1Assumes reinvestment of all distributions; initial purchase andcombines any subsequent purchases as an average of all shares. For any remaining funds not invested in our recommended stocks and mutual funds, we recommend a Treasury-only money market fund for safety and liquidity, so that this cash is readily available for reinvestment.
Data date: 1/5/15
Gold Bullion $1,204.82 11/8/1999 11/8/1999 4 $289.75 $4,819.28 $3,660.28 315.81 Hold (Buy $5,000 worth at the market)iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) $84.54 7/9/2012 10/10/2014 100 $84.56 $8,514.47 $58.47 0.69 Hold (Buy 100 shares at market)ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) $24.51 1/25/2013 8/20/2014 100 $31.58 $2,451.00 ($707.00) (22.39) Hold (Buy 100 shares at market)Aircastle Ltd (AYR) $20.68 10/7/2013 10/28/2014 125 $18.41 $2,712.50 $411.25 17.87 Hold (Buy 125 shares at market)Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF (GSY) $49.95 10/7/2013 10/7/2013 100 $50.14 $5,060.29 $46.29 0.92 Hold (Buy 100 shares at market)Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. (FGP) $22.10 3/10/2014 3/10/2014 150 $24.13 $3,540.00 ($79.50) (2.20) Hold (Buy 150 shares at market)NIKE, Inc. (NKE) $93.50 3/10/2014 10/28/2014 30 $80.45 $2,826.60 $413.10 17.12 Hold (Buy 30 shares at market)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) $22.19 4/7/2014 10/17/2014 200 $16.99 $4,438.00 $1,040.00 30.61 Hold (Buy 200 shares at market)Brookfi eld Renewable Energy Partners LP (BEP) $31.94 4/7/2014 10/28/2014 50 $28.87 $1,655.13 $211.63 14.66 Hold (Buy 50 shares at market)SPDR Barclays Short Term Corporate Bond ETF (SCPB) $30.53 4/14/2014 4/14/2014 200 $30.79 $6,153.45 ($4.55) (0.07) Hold (Buy 200 shares at market)McCormick & Company, Inc. (MKC) $72.70 6/9/2014 8/11/2014 75 $70.47 $5,508.00 $222.75 4.21 Hold; Stop loss $61.50 (Buy 75 shares at market)
$22.15 6/9/2014 8/11/2014 150 $26.93 $3,552.00 ($487.50) (12.07) Hold (Buy 150 shares at market)$18.70 7/28/2014 9/19/2014 200 $23.36 $3,763.00 ($909.00) (19.46) Hold (Buy 200 shares at market)$49.04 7/28/2014 9/8/2014 75 $54.16 $3,678.00 ($384.00) (9.45) Hold (Buy 75 shares at market)$26.26 9/19/2014 9/19/2014 75 $35.89 $1,974.00 ($717.75) (26.66) Hold (Buy 75 shares at market)$40.72 9/19/2014 9/19/2014 100 $37.14 $4,072.00 $358.00 9.64 Hold (Buy 100 shares at market)$17.88 10/17/2014 10/17/2014 400 $19.77 $7,151.84 ($756.16) (9.56) Hold (Buy 400 shares at market)$86.16 11/10/2014 11/10/2014 50 $83.85 $4,308.00 $115.50 2.75 Hold (Buy 50 shares at market)
$288.20 11/10/2014 11/10/2014 20 $266.07 $5,764.00 $442.60 8.32 Hold (Buy 20 shares at market)$96.01 12/8/2014 12/8/2014 20 $101.80 $1,920.20 ($115.80) (5.69) Hold (Buy 20 shares at market)$68.33 12/8/2014 12/8/2014 30 $66.23 $2,049.90 $63.00 3.17 Hold (Buy 30 shares at market)
Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC)
FreightCar America Inc (RAIL)
The Fresh Market Inc (TFM)
Short Financials ProShares (SEF)
DTE Energy Company (DTE)
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)
WEX Inc. (WEX) Macquarie Infrastructure Company LLC (MIC)
Treehouse Foods (THS) $85.62 1/12/2015 1/12/2015 50 - - - - Buy 50 shares at market
YTD Total Return (%)* (1.54) (2.71)
Current Value ($) as
of 1/05/15
Disclaimer: Safe Money Report is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment or trading advice to its subscribers. The money you allocate to speculative trading should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. While every effort is made to simulate the actual experience of subscribers, all performance fi gures must be considered hypothetical. References to examples of past performance are not intended to provide a total picture of positions results, and past results are no guarantee of future performance. The table includes all open positions recommended in the monthly Safe Money Report newsletter or fl ash alerts. Entry and exit prices are based on the closing price of the security 3 days after. Data date: 1/5/15
Current Quote ($) as of 1/05/15
Initial Open Positions Cost ............ $83,030.05 Open Positions Value .................... $85,911.65Open Positions Total Return Since Initial Purchase Date (%)*1 .....................3.47YTD Open Position Total Return(%)* .............0.41
SAFE MONEY REPORT by Mike LarsonPage 12
We have Federal Reserve policymakers who keep tinkering with policy the way Dr. Frankenstein tinkered with the laws of nature!
But as bad as things may be here, they’re much worse overseas in places like Europe! And curren-cies trade on a relative basis. That means when the euro collapses, like it has been, the dollar goes up just because it’s on the other side of the seesaw!
I anticipated this action, and that’s why I’ve avoided “contra-dollar” recommendations. Better yet, I recommended an ETF that rises in value as the euro falls – the ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO). It has paid off handsomely for you.
Q. I just attended a local individual investor meeting, which featured a speaker from Bar-ron’s. That speaker warned about a defl ationary economy, and that got me thinking: Should I purchase zero coupon municipal bonds? – R.D.
A. In a true defl ationary environment, zero coupon bonds should perform well. They offer the most price appreciation possible when interest rates and growth collapse. But while many foreign economies are relatively weak, and some are fac-ing short-term defl ation, there’s no evidence the U.S. is in the same boat right now.
Q. I’m trying to compare the “Positions at a Glance” in the Safe Money portfolio table with my online accounts. My accounts sort by ticker symbol. How do you sort yours? – L.K.
A. The table that we publish in the monthly letter is sorted chronologically. But you’ll fi nd everything you need to know about each position in the table – the name of the company, the ticker symbol (in parenthesis), the purchase date, the number of shares recommended, and so on.
Naturally, our “buy” and “sell” prices ... dates of purchase ... and other details may vary from your personal experience. So if you want to track the performance of YOUR transactions, you can use a tool like Yahoo Finance’s “My Portfolios” to do so. It’s available online here: fi nance.yahoo.com/
SAFE MONEY READERS’ Q&AQ. I saw some information you provided
on the threat of a Fed rate hike. But I missed specifi c stock suggestions on what to buy as a result. Where can I fi nd them? – D.H.
A. I’m glad you’ve taken the initiative to read up on the threat of higher rates down the road. I be-lieve that will leave you in better shape than many investors who are ignoring the warning signs!
As for specifi c investment recommendations designed to help insulate your wealth – and help you profi t – you’ll fi nd those right here in the Safe Money newsletter D.H.! See the model portfo-lio table on page 11 for details on what to buy if you’re just coming on board.
Q. I’m six years away from retirement, and my 401k balance is limited. So to offset that, I’ve been aggressive with my investing style, putting about 95 percent of the money in stock funds. What do you think of that approach? – J.B.
A. I can’t give personalized advice tailored to everyone’s individual situation, J.B. But putting 95 percent of your money in stocks ... with only a half-decade until retirement ... sounds risky to me.
The last couple of major bear markets in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 wiped many investors out. If another were to strike in the next couple of years, you wouldn’t have time to build your nest egg back up before retirement!
Just FYI: The Safe Money model portfolio (which is designed to be relatively conservative) has only a 49% allocation to stocks.
Q. I’ve been convinced the dollar will tank – but it keeps going up! Why? – M.Z.
A. I’ll be the fi rst to admit the U.S. dollar has fundamental, long-term problems. We have too much debt as a country. We have Washington dysfunction, the likes of which I’ve never seen.
1 (over, please ...)
Project 2015Announcing a major breakthrough
in the art and science of wealth building ...Deadline: January 23, 2015!
Dear Fellow Investor,
Weiss Research’s “Project 2015” initiative has led us to the single greatest breakthrough in the art and
science of wealth-building I have ever witnessed.
It is a breakthrough that I believe will completely revolutionize the way you invest.
It gives you the potential to achieve BOTH very large winning trades AND, at the same time, a very high ratio of winners to losers. As a result, this breakthrough gives you a new strategy with ...
The power to multiply your speculative funds
by 34 times!
Moreover, it gives you the opportunity to achieve this result with consistency and SPEED over time.
For example, in January of 2005, if you had set aside $10,000 to follow this new strategy, you could have over $340,000 today.
With a bit more — just $15,000 — you could have over a half-million dollars by now ($511,000 to be exact).
Or if you doubled that, starting with $30,000, you could be sitting on over $1 million.
That’s one million EXTRA dollars for all the special plans and interests you may have, whether during your retirement or before.
The key to our discovery is our new Weiss Timing Index. For each and every one of the 12,000 stocks we review each day, this new index addresses two critical issues:
1. Which way is this stocklikely to move — up ordown?
2. What is the likelihoodthat the move will beginwithin the next threetrading days?
Then, for each stock, our new model gives us a rank — from rank #1 to rank #12,000. Thus ...
Stocks with the ultimateWeiss Timing Indexhave an extremely HIGHprobability of movingalmost immediately,giving us a great dealof certainty regardingmarket timing, while ...
Stocks at the very bottom of the list have an extremely LOW probability of moving right away, meaning any investment action at that stage could be very premature.
This is a huge breakthrough for me — and for you. Now instead of just estimating the market timing, we have a thoroughly
tested, mathematical measure to guide us!
This project was driven by my personal commitment to help you build wealth even more effi ciently with stocks.
But as we began to see positive results, the project quickly exploded in both scope and size, ultimately involving a dedicated team of investment specialists and ratings analysts ... nearly our entire computer network ... and the single largest mountain of data any of us has ever seen in one place at one time.
It became an obsession with my entire team: We literally worked around the clock ... through weekends ... even through vacations and family holidays ... to bring this to you.
All to help you make 2015 your most profi table year ever.
Now the fi nal testing is complete — and I can tell you that the results are spectacular to say the least:
Not only have we greatly enhanced the tools for maximizing your profi ts on stock investments ...
We also have the power — and confi dence — to apply these tools to TIME-SENSITIVE speculative vehicles.
And that means, we have the power to build wealth far more
2
quickly — in ways that investors and traders could only have dreamed of before!
Now, you could turn a small grubstake
into a formidable pile of money the WEISS way.
At this point, you’re probably wondering if I’m talking about stock options. If so, you are 100% correct.
If that surprises you, I certainly understand. I’m known far and wide for being one of the most risk-averse investors on the planet. And even though purchasing stock options limit your risk, they are more volatile than stocks.
And you’re right: Without the power of my award-wining Weiss Stock Ratings to select the safest stocks ... and now, the additional power of my new Weiss Timing Index to time the market, I simply wouldn’t feel comfortable with options.
But WITH these two exclusive and thoroughly tested tools to help guide us, I now have a stock options approach I’m absolutely comfortable with.
I call it my ultimate stock options strategy. But I’m not talking about go-for-broke options.
I buy only options which are the most widely-traded, and most likely-to-succeed based on my tools. And I’m buying them only on the best-rated stocks on the market.
Nor am I doing this just for the “thrill” of hitting some grand-
slam home runs once in a while. Rather ...
I’m talking about using these highest quality options to build substantial wealth consistently, over time; over the long haul. And because we’re using options, we’re set to grow our speculative funds much faster.
This has rarely been done with options before — and that’s why I believe this new strategy is such a landmark breakthrough.
Three big advantages and one important
disadvantageof buying options ...
As you probably know, the main reason options are so powerful is because of LEVERAGE: The ability to deliver gains of $5 or more for every $1 generated by the underlying stock. Options allow you to effectively control large blocks of stocks for a period of time with very little money. And that gives you three major advantages:
Advantage #1 — Buying stock options gives you virtually UNLIMITED profi t potential and STRICTLY LIMITED RISK.
Other highly leveraged investment vehicles expose you to unlimited risk — but when you buy stock options, that is never the case. The absolute most you could ever lose is the small amount you spend for the option plus the tiny brokerage commission. Unlike futures or short-selling, you can never suffer a margin call.
In fact, since options let you control lots of shares with very little money, your dollar risk can actually be less than if you bought the actual stock.
Advantage #2 — Options give you enormous money-making power at a very low cost: Right now, for example, 100 shares of Microsoft would set you back about $4,900. But with options, you can control 100 shares for as little as $119.
And because you effectively control the stock, you can profi t almost as if you actually owned the stock outright. But because you pay so little for your position, your gains are amplifi ed many times over.
So let’s say that last April, your next-door neighbor decided to pay $7,500 to buy 100 shares of Apple at $75 per share.
By July, the stock was selling for about $100 per share — a 33% gain. He’s telling everyone he knows that he just snagged a $2,500 profi t (before commissions and taxes).
Not bad! But look at what could have happened if you had used options instead:
3(continued ...)
For starters, you would have taken effective control of those 100 shares of Apple for a fraction of what your neighbor paid:
Instead of shelling out $7,500 to buy 100 shares of the actual stock, you could have paid as little as $119 for an option that gives you the right to control those 100 shares.
That’s 98% less than the stock investor paid! So when the stock rises $25 per share, your percentage gain is far greater. Plus, it also means that, if the stock falls, the amount of money you have at risk is far smaller.
Advantage #3 — The low cost of options can actually REDUCE your capital risk: Let’s say your neighbor bought 100 shares of Amazon last February at $354 per share — an investment of $35,400. You used options instead, paying only $1,025 for an option that gives you the right to control 100 shares of Amazon.
But by October, the stock had plunged 19% to around $285 per share. Your neighbor wound up with a painful $6,726 loss. Your loss would have been just $1,025 (plus a small brokerage commission), but not a penny more.
Now, here’s the important disadvantage of options: As time goes by, if the stock does not make its move pretty soon, you will begin to see the value of your options erode. And if you run out of time entirely
— if the stock doesn’t make its move before your option expires — you could lose the entire amount you paid for the option (although never a penny more).
This is the main reason why many investors lose money with options: They buy or sell them at the wrong time.
And that’s where my new Weiss Timing Index makes all the difference in the world, in my view. Instead of just aiming for some big home runs here and there, my Weiss Timing Index gives us the power to hit an almost endless series of singles, doubles and triples, with few losing trades in between.
I repeat: Instead of trading options just for the “thrill of it,” you can also use options for SERIOUS — and VERY RAPID — WEALTH BUILDING.
To prove my theory, I ordered the most exhaustive testsin my company’s
history:
First, I focused a dedicated team on this effort. I gave our senior analysts, our ratings experts and our research people full access to our vast computer network and gave them explicit instructions for the development and testing of this strategy.
Second, we spent $32,000 to purchase a vast database that includes all 10,598,077 unique stock options that have been traded on U.S. exchanges since 2005.
Third, we considered only options on stocks with a Weiss Stock Rating of “Buy.” That step alone eliminated about 75% of the stocks on the market, leaving me with a list of strictly 3,150 high-quality investments.
Fourth, we ranked the remaining stocks from #1 down to #3,150 based on my Weiss Timing Index.
Fifth, each day, we produced a list of stocks ranked #1 through #5 — the absolute best of the best on all measures of market timing.
Sixth, from that list, we selected only the best options available — those that are (a) at or very near the money, and (b) have plenty of time remaining.
And seventh, we applied a similar strategy (in reverse) during the period that our Weiss Bear Market Indicator clearly identifi ed as a bear market.
Now, here are the results ...
Using our Weiss Stock Ratings to pick the best stocks AND the Weiss Timing Index to pick the best time turned out to be a very powerful combination, which could have yielded a series of outstanding benefi ts to investors.
Benefi t #1. Superlative win ratio. Our results produced an astounding win ratio of 80.2%. In other words, four out of fi ve trades would have been winners and only one out of fi ve was a loser. For any options-buying strategy, a win-loss ratio over 50% is considered unusually good; 80% is simply unheard-of.
4
Benefi t #2. Excellent consistency from year to year. The win ratio was mostly consistent year after year. In the last three years, for example, the percentage of wins has been 86% (2012), 85% (2013) and 85% again (in the fi rst 10 months of 2014).
Benefi t #3. Overall profi ts year after year. In the entire 10-year period, our results show only two losing years; and the losses were moderate — 14% and 4% back in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, our results showed eight winning years, with yearly gains of 60%, 47%, 15%, 32%, 45%, 77%, 118% and 107%.
Benefi t #5. Thirty-four times wealth growth in 10 years. Your total return since 2005 could have been 3,307%, enough to multiply your money 34 times.
All with options that I believe are suited for less aggressive options investors — in or very near the money and with plenty of time remaining before expiration.
Benefi t #6. Ideal for bear markets as well. We also found that everything that could be achieved in a bull market could also have been done in a bear market.
Instead of targeting our buy-rated stocks, we target our sell-rated stocks. And instead of buying call options (designed to profi t from rising stock prices), we buy put options (designed to profi t from declining stock prices).
Winning trades that will make most options
tradersturn green with envy ...
I want to make this perfectly clear: For me, extremely positive, OVERALL performance matters a lot more than some home runs on individual trades.
But, as I said earlier, if time runs out on your option and the stock fails to make its move — or moves in the wrong direction — you could lose up to 100% of your small investment in that particular trade. And even with all the best tools in the world, my results show that could happen from time to time with my ultimate stock options strategy.
Moreover, as I also said, the overwhelming bulk of the option trades — a whopping 8 out of 10 — were winners, including ...
Some hefty doubles and triples:
A 130.4% gain in 23days on CatamaranCorporation ...
A 133% gain in 10 dayson Philip Morris ...
A 160% gain in one day onFive Star Quality Care ...
A 169.23% gain in 47 dayswith ON Semiconductor.
And on many trades, you could have also more than TRIPLED your money:
You could have purchasedan option on AmericanInternational Group for
just $315, then sold it for a 234.9% gain in just 10 days.
You could have boughtan option on AIG for just$183 and sold it 11 dayslater for a 255.2% gain.
You could have bought anoption on Family DollarStores for just $207, thensold it for a 276.8% gainin 84 days.
And you could have boughtan option on Sanofi for just$170 and sold it 10 dayslater for a 283.5% gain.
Let’s say you had invested $5,000 in that last trade on Sanofi . Your 283% gain means you could have walked away with $19,150 — nearly FOUR TIMES your investment and in just ten days!
And on many trades, you could have grabbed your gains in one week or less: Over the ten years of the study, among 609 trades, over 300 trades took one week or less, generating gains of 24.4% ... 51.1% ... 79.3% ... up to 160%!
And I repeat: You could have done it without EVER buying the kinds of options that are generally considered riskier and more volatile — out of the money or with a very short time remaining before expiration.
To my knowledge, nobody has ever developed a strategy with the power to deliver an 80% win rate with the purchase of options.
Nobody has ever created the tools with the power to use options for a serious, reliable
5(continued ...)
wealth building strategy — to multiply your money more than 34 times over in ten years … until now!
That’s why I created Ultimate Stock Options — an entirely new service dedicated to trading stock options with your speculative money.
The ultimate in expertise: Meet the Ultimate Stock
Options editors:Exclusively qualifi ed to
help you profi t.
Make no mistake: I am deeply involved in this strategy. Not only did I design it myself — I also led the team that developed all of the tools we’ll use on every trade.
But editing Ultimate Stock Options demands the editor’s full time and attention. Plus, I’m absolutely committed to my work as editor of Martin’s Ultimate Portfolio.
So I’ve recruited the two professionals who are the most qualifi ed of all the analysts I know to serve you as editors of Ultimate Stock Options:
MIKE BURNICK is the expert on my Ultimate Strategy. He was at my side as I created
it, fi ne-tuned it, tested it and fi nalized it. He understands how the Weiss Stock Ratings work and he is highly qualifi ed for stock selection.
DAVID DUTKEWYCH is one of the few professional traders I know who has CONSISTENTLY
had success with options even without the benefi t of my Weiss Stock Ratings and Weiss Timing Index. I’m not talking about a winning streak or two throughout his career: David is hands-down the single most consistent options winner I’ve ever seen.
Together, Mike and David are like words and music — Mike using my Weiss Stock Ratings to identify the stocks we’ll base our options trades on ...
And David using our Weiss Timing Index to issue “buy” and “sell” signals for puts and calls.
The ultimate in confi dence: I’m so confi dent
Ultimate Stock Optionswill multiply your
money ... I’m going to be investing
right along with you!
I want you to know that I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
I want you to be able to
trade before I do.
And I want you to see exactly what results I get, warts and all, in my own brokerage account.
That’s why I’m investing right along with you in Ultimate Stock Options.
I have set aside some money that I can afford to risk, and I’m using that money to invest in the very same trades as members of Ultimate Stock Options!
That’s important; let me repeat it:
I am so confi dent in these enhanced tools and our team, I am going to invest in every “buy” and “sell” signal for these options right along with you.
And of course, as publisher of Ultimate Stock Options — and one of your fellow investors — I will monitor every move they make with an eye to maximizing performance.
The ultimate in exclusivity:Enrollment is strictly
limited and could close at any moment
without notice.
I must do this in all good conscience. If too many people receive our trading signals, it could become diffi cult for you to get advantageous prices when you buy or sell.
As a result, less than one-half of one percent of our readers will ever be able to join — and memberships will be awarded on a fi rst-come, fi rst-served basis only.
The ultimate in SAVINGS: Exclusive, deeply-
discounted new member pricing is available only until
January 23!
6
I want to be 100% up-front with you about this: For the rest of the world, membership in Ultimate Stock Options will be expensive — $5,000 for a single year; $10,000 for two years.
The good news for you is that, if you act now, you can purchase a one-year membership in Ultimate Stock Options for just $4,500. You save a whopping $500.
Or, for just $1,000 more, you can purchase two years of Ultimate Stock Options for just $5,500. That’s $4,500 off the $10,000 rate.
No guarantees, but with just one $2,250 trade that makes a 200% gain, you could easily cover the cost of your membership for two whole years. After that, the rest of your membership is gravy.
Fair warning: But you must hurry because this deeply-discounted new member pricing expires January 23!
Your complete satisfaction is
fully guaranteed for a full year!
I repeat: My Weiss Stock Ratings and my Weiss Timing Index are so accurate and so powerful, my team and I have supreme confi dence in this program, and we want to express that confi dence in still another way: A full, one-year guarantee on your complete satisfaction.
During your fi rst year with us, get our trading issues. Check out each trade. In the fi rst few weeks, you can just trade
with paper money if you wish, without risking a penny.
Later, once you’re comfortable with the strategy, you can trade with real money.
Then, as your fi rst full year with us closes, make your fi nal decision. You can quit and get back every penny you’ve spent for your membership, no questions asked. Or you can stick with it. Entirely up to you!
Learn a lot more about thebest way to trade options ...
Get a solid feel aboutwhether it’s right for youor not ...
See with your own eyes,in real time, whether ornot WE can really helpmake a big difference foryou, and ...
THEN decide whether youwant to continue or not ...
All with ZERO risk onyour membership fee and,if you wish, even withoutcommitting a penny ofyour investment capital inthe fi rst trades.
This could be the ultimate win-win
for you:
The way I see it ...
We have theultimate long-termmegatrend: The tidalwave of foreign moneythat’s now rushingtowards Wall Street.
We have the ultimate toolfor identifying the mostpromising stocks: TheWeiss Stock Ratings.
We have the ultimatetool for timing themarket: The WeissTiming Index.
We have the ultimateinvestment vehicles tomultiply our profi ts:Stock options designedto hand you $5 or morefor every $1 gain in theunderlying stock.
And we have the equalability to achieve theseresults in both up anddown markets: Withcall options on Weissbuy-rated stocks and putoptions on Weiss sell-rated stocks.
Plus ...
You are entitled to alow membership ratethat will be available forthis service, saving you$500 on one year and$4,500 on two years ...
You have my guarantee thatyou will be delighted with the profi ts my Ultimate Stock Options service helps you make after one year, or I’ll refund every penny you paid.
But please remember: You must grab your membership quickly. Membership is strictly limited and enrollment may close at any moment without notice.
When the last membership is purchased, your only opportunity to join will be to get your name on our waiting list in case a vacancy occurs in our membership rolls.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin(continued ...)
7
* These overall performance numbers represent total price appreciation before taxes and broker commissions. They depict what a hypothetical investor could have achieved if he had followed all signals that would have been generated by the combination of the Weiss Stock Ratings and the new Weiss Timing Index, including both winning and losing trades. It is assumed that the investor consistently erred on the side of caution by (a) avoiding higher risk options and (b) never reinvested profi ts, except at the beginning of each new calendar year. For details, see Terms and Conditions. Data Sources: Bloomberg, Weiss Ratings, MarketDataExpress.com
Membership ApplicationUltimate Stock Options
Deeply-discounted New Member Pricing Expires on January 23, 2015
Weiss Research’s Ultimate Stock Options YES, MARTIN! Please accept my new membership in your Ultimate Stock Options service
as indicated below. I understand that I must be delighted with this service, or I can cancel at one year for a full refund.
I understand that as soon as I’m accepted:
I’ll be one of the fi rst to get your major “buy” and “sell” signals for puts and calls the minute they’re issued.
I’ll get exclusive, discounted membership pricing saving me $500 off the regular cost of a one-year membership or a whopping $4,500 off the cost of a two-year membership.
I get 24/7 access to the Ultimate Stock Options website and full and free access to you PERSONALLY through your “Editor’s Mailbag.”
My Ultimate Stock Options membership is fully guaranteed. If I am not completely thrilled, I can cancel my membership at one year for a full refund.
BEST VALUE: Two years; save $4,500. You get 24 months of Ultimate Stock Options for just $5,500. Satisfaction Guaranteed.
GREAT VALUE: One year; save $500. You get 12 months of Ultimate Stock Options for just $4,500. Satisfaction Guaranteed.
Or, if I call 800-291-8545, I can begin enjoying all my membership benefi ts in just minutes!
Check Enclosed: Amt. $ _________
Please charge my:
Credit Card #: ____________________________Expires: ________Signature: _______________________________________________Name: __________________________________________________Address:_________________________________________________City: _________________________ State: _________ Zip: ________Email Address: ___________________________________________
Please provide your email address to receive your important updates
Send this form to: Weiss Research’s Ultimate Stock Options4400 Northcorp Parkway Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410 tel: 800-291-8545 fax: 561-625-6685
SMRE48903
✓
✓
✓
✓
