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Continued strong growth in Sweden Sources Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankGDP, quarterly changes in per cent, calculated as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
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Monetary policy update
April 2011
The Swedish economy remains strong
Continued strong growth in Sweden
Sources Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankGDP, quarterly changes in per cent, calculated as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Mean 2000-2010
Strong exports and domestic demand
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Export
Investments
Consumption
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Labour market situation improving
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankUnemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
Continued strong growth abroad
Sources: IMF and the RiksbankGDP, annual percentage change. IMF’s April forecast for Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Euro areaUSABRICWorld
Uncertainty in the world economy
Natural disaster in Japan
Fiscal problems in the euro area
Political unease in North Africa and the Middle East
High energy and commodity prices
Sources: Intercontinental exchange and the RiksbankBrent crude oil, USD per barrel. Forward rates calculated as a 15-day average.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
OutcomeForwards, average, up to 12 April 2011Forwards, average, up to 9 February 2011
Low underlying inflation
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankAnnual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
Rising mortgage rates give high CPI inflation
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPI
CPIF
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankAnnual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Increasing short-term inflation expectations
Annual percentage change. Inflation expectations refer to all participants. Surveys December 2010 and March 2011..
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
CPI
CPIF
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
CPI CPIF1 year (December) 1 year (March)2 years (December) 2 years (March)5 years (December) 5 years (March)
A forecast not a promise
Source: The RiksbankRepo rate, percentage, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
The Swedish economy remains strong