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Monetary Policy Report October 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regions Annual percentage change. Note. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden’s most important trading partners. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, National sources and the Riksbank. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Monetary Policy Report
October 2012
Figure 1.1. GDP in different regionsAnnual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, National sources and the
Riksbank
Note. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden’s most important trading partners.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
96 00 04 08 12
KIX
World
USA
Euro area
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
06 08 10 12 14
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.
Figure 1.3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.4. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors and the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
Figure 1.6. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent
3
4
5
6
7
8
3
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 1.7. Unit labour costIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: EurostatNote. Only seasonally-adjusted data up to the end of Q1, 2011 is available for Greece.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
SpainPortugalItalyIrelandGreeceGermany
Figure 1.8. GDP in Sweden, the euro area and USAQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
06 08 10 12 14
USA
Euro area
Sweden
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the United StatesAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat
Note. This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States.
Figure 1.10. GDP in the world and the Swedish export marketAnnual percentage change
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
96 00 04 08 12
GDP in the world (left scale)
Swedish export market (right scale)
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.
Figure 1.11. KIX- and TCW-weighted nominal exchange rates Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
TCW
KIX
Source: The RiksbankNote. KIX and TCW refers to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Figure 1.12. KIX- and TCW-weighted real exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages
100
110
120
130
140
150
100
110
120
130
140
150
96 00 04 08 12
TCW
KIX
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. The real exchange rate is deflated by the CPIF for Sweden and the CPI for abroad. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes.
Figure 1.15. Household wealthPer cent of disposable income
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. There is no regular publication of official data for the households’ total wealth. The series refers to the Riksbank’s estimate of the households’ total financial assets and housing assets. Liquid wealth mainly refers here to cash, bank deposits, bonds and shares (directly owned and funds).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Householdd real and financial wealth(excluding collective insurancesavings)
Household liquid wealth
Figure 1.16. Household debtPer cent of disposable income
80
100
120
140
160
180
80
100
120
140
160
180
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.17. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
06 08 10 12 14
Swedish export market
Swedish exports
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.
Figure 1.18. Gross fixed capital formation and GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
06 08 10 12 14
GDP
Gross fixed capital formation
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.19. General government net lendingPer cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
08 10 12 14
September
October
Figure 1.20. Net exports, total financial balance and current accountPer cent of GDP
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
96 00 04 08 12
Net exports, other
Net export, foreign trade
Total financial balance
Current account
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
96 00 04 08 12
Employed, aged 16-64
Employed, aged 15-74
Labour force, aged 16-64
Labour force, aged 15-74
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.22. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Figure 1.23. RU indicatorStandard deviation
Source: The Riksbank Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
96 99 02 05 08 11
Figure 1.24. GDP and labour market gapPer cent
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
06 08 10 12 14
Hours gap
Employment gap
GDP gap
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated using a production function. The hours gap and the employment gap refer to the deviation in the number of hours worked and the number of those employed from the Riksbank’s assessed trend.
Figure 1.25. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
CPIF excluding energy
CPIF
CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.27. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.28. CPIAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.29. CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.30. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Figure 1.31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
06 08 10 12 14
September
October
Figure 2.1. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics and the Riksbank
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
08 10 12 14
Higher growth in Sweden
Main scenario
Figure 2.2. Labour productivity and GDPAnnual percentage change
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
GDP
Productivity
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.3. Labour productivity Annual percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
08 10 12 14
Higher productivity (deviation)
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.4. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
08 10 12 14
Higher domestic demand
Higher productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 2.5. Hours gapPer cent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 10 12 14
Higher domestic demand
Higher productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.6. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
08 10 12 14
Higher domestic demand
Higher productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.7. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Higher domestic demand
Higher productivity
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.8. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Higher domestic demandHigher productivityMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.9. KIX-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
08 10 12 14
Stronger krona
Main scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 2.10. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
08 10 12 14
Slow impact
Rapid impact
Normal impact
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 2.11. Hours gap Per cent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 10 12 14
Slow impact
Rapid impact
Normal impact
Main scenario
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.12. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
08 10 12 14
Slow impact
Rapid impact
Normal impact
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.13. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Slow impact
Rapid impact
Normal impact
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.14. CPI Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Slow impact
Rapid impact
Normal impact
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. Alternative repo-rate pathsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.16. Hours gapPer cent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.17. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.18. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 10 12 14
Higher interest rateLower interest rateMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.19. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 3.1. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12
United Kingdom
USA
Germany
Sweden
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.2. Government bond rates with 2 and 10 years left to maturityPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
08 09 10 11 12
Spain, 2 years left to maturity
Spain, 10 years left to maturity
Italy, 2 years left to maturity
Italy, 10 years left to maturity
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.3. Stock market movementsIndex, 3 January 2006 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
08 09 10 11 12
Emerging markets (MSCI)USA (S&P 500)Euro area (EuroStoxx)Sweden (OMXS)
Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Reuters EcoWin, Standard & Poor's and STOXX Limited
Figure 3.4. Commodity price indexIndex, 2005 = 100, USD
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
08 09 10 11 12
Food
Other agricultural products
Metals
Total
Source: The Economist
Figure 3.5. Policy rate expectations measured in terms of market prices in the euro area, USA and UKPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankNote. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent to the official policy rate.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Repo rate
Forward rate 6 September 2012
Forward rate 18 October 2012
Survey, Prospera average, 26 September 2012
Figure 3.6. Repo rate expectations in Sweden measured in terms of market prices and survey, money market participantsPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Repo rate
Forward rate 6 September 2012
Forward rate 18 October 2012
Survey, Prospera average, 26 September 2012
Figure 3.7. Short-term interest rates in SwedenPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
05 07 09 11
Mortgages, averages
Interbank rate (Stibor rate)
Repo rate
Mortgages, interest rate according tofinancial market statistics
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. Refers to average of three-month listed mortgage rates from banks and mortgage institutions, the three month interbank rate and the monthly average for three month mortgage rates for new loans according to the Riksbank´s financial market statistics. Listed mortgage rates are the rates published by Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Swedbank Hypotek and Stadshypotek, for example in the daily press.
Figure 3.8. Bank lending to companies and householdsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Companies
Households
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.9. Housing prices Index, 2008 = 100
Sources: Statistics Sweden and Valueguard
Note. The data from Valueguard is on a monthly rate and the data from Statistics Sweden is on a quarterly rate. Statistics Sweden's real estate price index is based on land registration data, while Valueguard's index is based on purchasing contracts. Purchasing contracts are normally registered about two months before land registration, which means that SCB's statistics lag behind those from Valueguard.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
05 07 09 11
Tenant-owned apartment prices (Valueguard)
Real estate price index (Valueguard)
House prices (Statistics Sweden)
Figure 3.10. KIX- and TCW-weighted nominal exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
05 07 09 11
TCW index
KIX index
Source: The RiksbankNote. KIX and TCW refer to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries.
Figure 3.11. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
Figure 3.12. Industrial productionIndex, January 2006 = 100
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Figure 3.13. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat
Figure 3.14. Purchasing managers' index, manufacturing sectorIndex
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
BRIC
USA
Euro area
Sources: Institute for Supply Management and Markit Economics
Note. Values above 50 indicate growth. The BRIC countries consists of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Figure 3.15. GDP in Denmark and NorwayQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
05 07 09 11
Norway, mainland
Denmark
Sources: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Norway
Figure 3.16. Housing construction in the United StatesNumber of new homes constructed per month calculated as an annual rate, thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 3.17. GDP in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
05 07 09 11
China
India
Russia
Brazil
Sources: Central Statistical Organisation, India, Federal State Statistics Service, Russia, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and National
Bureau of Statistics of China
Note. The BRIC countries consists of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Figure 3.18. World Import VolumeIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
80
120
160
200
240
280
80
120
160
200
240
280
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Emerging economies
Advanced economies
World
Figure 3.19. Consumer prices Annual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Figure 3.20. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
96 99 02 05 08 11
Figure 3.21. The Economic Tendency IndicatorIndex, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
The Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean
+/- one standard deviation
Figure 3.22. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
96 99 02 05 08 11
Public authorities
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
Figure 3.23. New export ordersNet figures and index
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Silf and Swedbank
Note. Values above 50 on the right scale indicate growth.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
96 99 02 05 08 11
Orders, NIER, net figures (left scale)
Orders, Swedbank, PMI (right scale)
Figure 3.24. Production, export and import of goodsIndex, 2007 = 100
70
80
90
100
110
70
80
90
100
110
05 07 09 11
Import of goods
Export of goods
Services production
Industrial production
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.25. Confidence indicator for householdsNet figures
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
96 99 02 05 08 11
Figure 3.26. Employment, labour force and unemploymentThousands and per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Labour force (left)
Employed (left)
Unemployment (right)
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. Three-month moving averages.
Figure 3.27. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sectorNet figures and annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: National Institute of Economics Research and Statistics Sweden
Note. The net figures are defined as the difference between the proportion of firms reporting a wish to increase the number of employees and the proportion of firms reporting a wish to reduce numbers.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
96 99 02 05 08 11
Hiring plans according to NIER’s quarterly business tendency survey (left scale)Number of employed according to National Accounts (rightscale)
Figure 3.28. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Employment Service and the Riksbank
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
96 99 02 05 08 11
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
New vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
Figure 3.29. WagesAnnual percentage change
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Note. Preliminary outcomes in the past 12 months, usually revised upwards.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
96 99 02 05 08 11
Business sector
Public sector
Figure 3.30. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
CPIF excluding energy
CPIF
CPI
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 3.31. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
40
60
80
100
120
140
40
60
80
100
120
140
06 08 10 12 14
Outcome
Futures, average up to and including 31 August 2012
Futures, average up to and including 18 October 2012
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.
Figure 3.32. Expectations of inflation one year aheadPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Money market participants(Prospera)Companies (NIER)
Households (NIER)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS SIFO
Prospera
Note. Company figures are quarterly, others monthly.
Figure 3.33. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer cent
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
96 99 02 05 08 11
5 years
2 years
1 year
Figure A1. Total of KIX weights for countries outside the TCW areaPercentage
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
92 96 00 04 08 12
Figure A2. GDP abroadQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Note. KIX-21 includes the countries and regions presented in Table A1.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
TCW
KIX-21
Figure A3. CPI abroad Annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
TCW
KIX-21
Sources: National sources, OECD and the Riksbank
Note. KIX-21 includes the countries and regions presented in Table A1.
Figure A4. KIX- and TCW-weighted nominal exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
100
110
120
130
140
150
92 96 00 04 08 12
KIX
TCW
Source: The Riksbank
Figure A5. KIX- and TCW-weighted real exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
100
110
120
130
140
150
92 96 00 04 08 12
TCW
KIX
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. The real exchange rate is deflated by the CPIF for Sweden and the CPI for abroad. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure A6. Policy rates abroad Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12
TCW
KIX-4
Sources: Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Reuters EcoWin and the
Riksbank
Note. KIX-4 includes the euro area, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States
Figure A7. Nominal wages, trade union agreements and the CPI in SwedenAnnual percentage change
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
CPI
Trade union agreements
Nominal wages
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A8. Labour shortage and wage drift in the business sectorPer cent and annual percentage change
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. The series for wage drift is smoothed using a 3-quarter moving average. Shortage of labour refers to seasonally-adjusted data.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
96 99 02 05 08 11
Shortage of labour (left scale)
Wage drift (right scale)
Figure A9. Confidence indicators for the business sectorNet figures, seasonally-adjusted data
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Construction industry
Private service industries
Retail trade
Manufacturing industry
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure A10. Agreed wage increases Annual percentage change
Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank, ECB, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
96 99 02 05 08 11
Germany
Euro area
Sweden
Figure A11. Profit share in the business sectorGross surplus as share of value added in the business sector and annual percentage change, respectively
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Real labour cost per hour deflated by the added-value deflator in the business sector.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Profit share (left scale)
Real labour cost per hour (right scale)
Productivity (right scale)
Figure A12. Total wage increases and wage increases agreed at union level in SwedenAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
96 00 04 08 12
Total wage increase
Trade union agreements
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A13. Expected wage drift at companies according to the Riksbank’s company interviewsNet figures
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Source: The Riksbank
Note. Weighted net figures based on the number of employees in Sweden at the interviewed companies. The question relates to the companies' assessments of wage drift over the next 12 months. The net figures in the diagram represent the balance between the percentage of companies stating that wage drift will increase and those stating that wage drift will decrease. The dates specified in the figure refer to the month in which the company interviews were mainly conducted.
Figure A14. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Average 1980-1991
Average 1999-2012 Q3
Outcome
Figure A15. Flows on the labour market
OUTSIDE THE LABOUR FORCE
UNEMPLOYED
EMPLOYED
Figure A16. Age structurePer cent of population, aged 15-74
10
20
30
40
50
60
10
20
30
40
50
60
88 93 98 03 08
55-74 years
25-54 years
15-24 years
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A17. Total unemployment by age groupPercentage points of total unemployment
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2006 2011
15-24 years
25-54 years
55-74 years
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A18. Total unemployment by education levelPercentage points of total unemployment
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2006 2011
At most compulsory school
Upper-secondary school
Tertiary education
No data
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A19. Total unemployment by originPercentage points of total unemployment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2011
Native born
Foreign born
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A20. Beveridge curvePer cent of the labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Data labels mark the first quarter of the respective year.
2001
2002
2003
20042005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
20112012
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
Vac
ancy
rat
e
Unemployment
Figure A21. Geographical mobility and vacancy ratePer cent of the labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Geographical mobility is defined as the number of people moving into the area as a percentage of the labour force. The vacancy rate is defined as the number of vacancies as a percentage of the labour force.
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Forecast (left scale)
Geographical mobility (left scale)
Vacancy rate (right scale)
Figure A22. Job finding rate for those registered with the Employment Service, by different groupsPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Born outside of EuropeAt most compulsary schoolDisabledElders (55-64 years)Young (16-24 years)All
Sources: Employment Service and Statistics Sweden
Note. The Figure shows the number of individuals in different groups, that have got an unsubsidised job in the month concerned as a percentage of the remaining number of unemployed and participants in programmes with activity grants in the preceding month. Three-month moving average.
Figure A23. Average period of unemploymentNumber of weeks
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
87 91 95 99 03 07 11
Average 1987-2012
Outcome
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. Refers to the 16-64 age group.
Figure A24. Job finding rate and tightness on the labour market, quarter
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Job finding rate is calculated as the percentage of unemployed that move from unemployment to employment from one quarter to another. Labour market tightness is measured as the number of vacancies, according to Statistics Sweden’s vacancy statistics, in relation to the number of unemployed. Both variables are seasonally-adjusted, logarithmed and measured as a deviation from the
average during the period. Observations up to the end of the fourth quarter 2008 are marked in red and observations thereafter are marked in blue.
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Job fi
ndin
g rat
e
Labour market tightness
Figure A25. Job finding rate and tightness on the labour market, month
Sources: Employment Service and the Riksbank
Note. Job finding rate is defined as the number of job-seekers who have got an unsubsidised job in relation to the total number of job-seekers in the preceding month. Labour market tightness is defined as remaining vacancies in relation to the total number of job-seekers. Both variables are seasonally-adjusted, logarithmed and measured as a deviation from the average during the period. Observations up to
and including December 2008 are marked in red and observations from January 2009 to August 2012 are marked in blue.
2012.62012.3
2012.9
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
Job fi
ndin
g rat
e
Labour market tightness
Figure A26. Job finding rate - outcome and forecastPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Employment Service and the Riksbank
Note. The broken red line represents the forecast. The broken black line represents the 95% forecast interval.
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Outcome
Forecast
Fitted values
Table 1.Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Source: The Riksbank
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
Repo rate 1.5 1.2 (1.3) 1.3 (1.6) 1.9 (2.3) 2.6
Table 2. InflationAnnual percentage change, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CPI 3.0 (3.0) 0.9 (1.2) 0.7 (1.3) 2.4 (2.6) 2.7
CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.1 (1.6) 2.0 (2.0) 2.1
CPIF excl. energy 1.0 (1.0) 1.0 (1.1) 1.4 (1.5) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1
HICP 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.1 (1.5) 2.1 (2.0) 2.2
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Summary of financial forecastsPer cent, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Repo rate 1.8 (1.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.2 (1.4) 1.7 (2.0) 2.3 2.3
10-year rate 2.7 (2.7) 1.7 (1.6) 2.0 (2.1) 3.1 (3.3) 3.9 3.9 Exchange rate, KIX-index, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100
107.6 106.0 103.4 103.3 103.3
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100 122.3 (122.3) 120.8 (120.4) 116.8 (116.9) 117.2 (118.0) 117.8
General government net lending* 0.2 (0.1) -0.1 (-0.2) -0.3 (-0.5) 0.5 (0.5) 1.0
Table 4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
GDP 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Euro area (0.14) 1.5 (1.5) -0.4 (-0.4) 0.2 (0.5) 1.7 (1.9) 2.2
USA (0.19) 1.8 (1.8) 2.1 (2.3) 2.2 (2.4) 3.4 (3.2) 3.6
Japan (0.06) -0.7 (-0.7) 2.3 (2.7) 1.3 (1.4) 1.1 (1.2) 1.0
BRIC-countries (0.26) 7.4 (7.5) 6.0 (6.5) 6.7 (7.0) 6.9 (7.3) 6.9
OECD (0.54) 1.9 (1.9) 1.4 (1.6) 1.7 (1.9) 2.6 (2.7) 2.8
KIX-weighted (0.79) 2.2 1.1 1.6 2.6 3.0
TCW-weighted (0.54) 1.3 (1.3) 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (1.1) 2.0 (2.1) 2.4
World (1.00) 3.9 (3.9) 3.3 (3.5) 3.6 (3.8) 4.1 (4.3) 4.3
Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF, 2011. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
CPI 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Euro area (HICP) 2.7 (2.7) 2.5 (2.5) 1.9 (1.8) 1.6 (1.6) 1.8
USA 3.2 (3.2) 2.2 (2.1) 2.0 (1.9) 1.9 (2.0) 2.4
Japan -0.3 (-0.3) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) 0.9 (0.3) 0.6
KIX-weighted 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3
TCW-weighted 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.1) 1.8 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) 1.9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Policy rates in the rest of the world, KIX-weighted, per cent 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9
Policy rates in the rest of the world, TCW-weighted, per cent
0.8 (0.8) 0.3 (0.3) 0.3 (0.3) 0.4 (0.4) 0.9
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 111 (111) 112 (113) 108 (110) 103 (104) 98
Swedish export market 5.4 1.5 3.9 7.0 8.2
Note. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated
by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.. The weights comprise the respective country´s share of Swedish export of goods Policy rates abroad refers to a weighted average of
USA, the Eurozone, Norway and the United Kingdom.
Table 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Private consumption 2.1 (2.0) 1.8 (1.7) 2.2 (1.8) 2.7 (2.4) 2.3 2.3
Public consumption 1.7 (1.8) 0.6 (0.9) 0.9 (1.0) 0.7 (0.7) 1.1 1.1
Gross fixed capital formation 6.7 (6.2) 3.7 (4.1) 2.7 (2.6) 5.2 (5.5) 5.1 5.1
Inventory investment* 0.4 (0.6) -0.9 (-1.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0
Exports 7.1 (6.9) -0.1 (1.3) 3.3 (3.9) 6.4 (6.5) 8.5 8.5
Imports 6.3 (6.3) -0.3 (-0.2) 3.9 (3.8) 6.7 (6.8) 8.5 8.5
GDP 3.9 (3.9) 0.9 (1.5) 1.8 (1.9) 2.7 (2.8) 2.9 2.9
GDP, calendar-adjusted 3.9 (4.0) 1.2 (1.9) 1.8 (1.9) 2.8 (2.9) 2.7 2.7
Final figure for domestic demand* 2.7 (2.6) 1.7 (1.8) 1.8 (1.6) 2.5 (2.4) 2.4 2.4
Net exports* 0.8 (0.7) 0.1 (0.7) -0.1 (0.3) 0.3 (0.3) 0.5 0.5
Current account (NA), per cent of GDP 6.9 (7.0) 6.7 (7.2) 6.5 (7.2) 6.5 (7.2) 6.5 6.5
Table 6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
* Per cent of labour force
Note. Potential hours refer to the the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked according to the Riksbank’s assessment.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population, aged 16-64 0.3 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 0.2 (0.2) 0.2 0.2
Potential hours worked 0.7 (0.8) 0.5 (0.6) 0.4 (0.5) 0.4 (0.4) 0.4 0.4
GDP, calendar-adjusted 3.9 (4.0) 1.2 (1.9) 1.8 (1.9) 2.8 (2.9) 2.7 2.7 Number of hours worked,calendar-adjusted 2.2 (2.3) 0.4 (0.3) 0.4 (0.3) 0.9 (1.1) 0.7 0.7
Employed, aged 15-74 2.1 (2.1) 0.5 (0.4) 0.3 (0.4) 0.9 (1.1) 1.1 1.1
Labour force, aged 15-74 1.2 (1.2) 0.7 (0.5) 0.6 (0.5) 0.3 (0.3) 0.2 0.2
Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.7 (7.6) 7.9 (7.6) 7.4 (6.9) 6.5 6.5
Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data, unless otherwise stated
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hourly wage, NMO 2.4 (2.5) 3.2 (3.1) 3.1 (3.3) 3.4 (3.4) 3.7 3.7
Hourly wage, NA 3.4 (3.3) 3.3 (3.4) 3.4 (3.5) 3.7 (3.7) 4.0 4.1
Employer’s contribution* -0.2 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0
Hourly labour cost, NA 3.2 (3.1) 3.4 (3.5) 3.4 (3.5) 3.7 (3.7) 4.0 4.1
Productivity 1.7 (1.7) 0.8 (1.5) 1.5 (1.6) 1.9 (1.8) 1.9 2.3
Unit labour cost 1.5 (1.4) 2.6 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9) 1.8 (1.9) 2.0 1.8
Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total
number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 8. Alternative scenario: higher growth in Sweden – higher productivityAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
* Per cent of labour force
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2013 2014 2015
GDP 2.2 (1.8) 3.6 (2.8) 3.1 (2.7)
CPIF 1.1 (1.1) 1.8 (2.0) 2.0 (2.1)
Hours gap, per cent -0.7 (-0.7) -0.4 (-0.1) 0.3 (0.2)
Unemployment, aged 15-74* 8.0 (7.9) 7.3 (7.4) 6.3 (6.5)
Repo rate, per cent 1.1 (1.2) 1.2 (1.7) 1.8 (2.3)
CPI 0.5 (0.7) 1.8 (2.4) 2.6 (2.7)
Table 9. Alternative scenario: higher growth in Sweden – higher domestic demandAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2013 2014 2015
GDP 2.2 (1.8) 3.6 (2.8) 3.1 (2.7)
CPIF 1.3 (1.1) 2.2 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
Hours gap, per cent -0.4 (-0.7) 0.3 (-0.1) 0.4 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 7.8 (7.9) 7.0 (7.4) 6.4 (6.5)
Repo rate, per cent 1.4 (1.2) 2.2 (1.7) 2.9 (2.3)
CPI 1.0 (0.7) 2.9 (2.4) 2.9 (2.7)
Table 10. Alternative scenario: stronger krona – normal impactAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2013 2014 2015
Exchange rate, KIX-index, 18 Nov. 1992=100 99.9 (103.4) 102.2 (103.3) 102.7 (103.3)
CPIF 0.8 (1.1) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
Hours gap, per cent -1.0 (-0.7) -0.3 (-0.1) 0.0 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 8.0 (7.9) 7.5 (7.4) 6.7 (6.5)
Repo rate, per cent 0.8 (1.2) 1.4 (1.7) 2.4 (2.3)
CPI 0.0 (0.7) 2.3 (2.4) 3.0 (2.7)
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Table 11. Alternative scenario: stronger krona – rapid impactAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2013 2014 2015
Exchange rate, KIX-index, 18 Nov. 1992=100 99.9 (103.4) 102.2 (103.3) 102.7 (103.3)
CPIF 0.6 (1.1) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
Hours gap, per cent -1.1 (-0.7) -0.4 (-0.1) 0.0 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 8.1 (7.9) 7.6 (7.4) 6.8 (6.5)
Repo rate, per cent 0.7 (1.2) 1.3 (1.7) 2.4 (2.3)
CPI -0.3 (0.7) 2.4 (2.4) 3.1 (2.7)
Table 12. Alternative scenario: stronger krona – slow impactAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2013 2014 2015
Exchange rate, KIX-index, 18 Nov. 1992=100 99.9 (103.4) 102.2 (103.3) 102.7 (103.3)
CPIF 0.9 (1.1) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
Hours gap, per cent -0.9 (-0.7) -0.3 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 8.0 (7.9) 7.4 (7.4) 6.6 (6.5)
Repo rate, per cent 1.0 (1.2) 1.5 (1.7) 2.3 (2.3)
CPI 0.3 (0.7) 2.3 (2.4) 2.9 (2.7)
Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2012 2013 2014 2015
Repo rate, per cent 1.4 (1.5) 1.0 (1.2) 1.7 (1.7) 2.4 (2.3)
Hours gap, per cent -0.6 (-0.6) -0.5 (-0.7) 0.0 (-0.1) 0.3 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 7.7 (7.7) 7.8 (7.9) 7.2 (7.4) 6.4 (6.5)
CPI 0.9 (0.9) 0.7 (0.7) 2.7 (2.4) 2.8 (2.7)
CPIF 1.0 (1.0) 1.2 (1.1) 2.1 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
Table 14. Alternative scenario: higher repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
2012 2013 2014 2015
Repo rate, per cent 1.5 (1.5) 1.4 (1.2) 1.7 (1.7) 2.3 (2.3)
Hours gap, per cent -0.6 (-0.6) -0.8 (-0.7) -0.3 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.2)
Unemployment, 15-74* years 7.7 (7.7) 8.0 (7.9) 7.5 (7.4) 6.7 (6.5)
CPI 1.0 (0.9) 0.7 (0.7) 2.1 (2.4) 2.6 (2.7)
CPIF 1.0 (1.0) 1.0 (1.1) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 (2.1)
