Monetary Policy Report 3/12 - Norges Bank · Futures MPR 3/12 Futures MPR 2/12 Petroleum price 0 20 40 0 20 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1) Weighted average of Norwegian

Monetary Policy Report 3/12

Charts

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Chart 1.1 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 15 June 2012 and 25 October 2012.¹⁾ Percent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2015²⁾

US

Euro area³⁾

UK

0

1

0

1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 15 June 2012. Thin lines show forward rates as at 25 October 2012. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates2) Daily figures from 1 January 2008 and quarterly figures from 2012 Q43) EONIA for euro area from 2012 Q4Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

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15

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25

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40

Chart 1.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. Percent. 1 January 2010 – 25 October 2012

Greece (left-hand scale)

Germany

Spain

Italy

0

1

2

0

5

10

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Source: Thomson Reuters

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3

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2

3

4

Chart 1.3 Difference between 3-month money market rateand expected key rates¹⁾. Percentage points. 5-day moving average.1 January 2008 – 25 October 2012

US

Euro area

Norway

0

1

0

1

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-121) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates. Norges Bank's projections for market participant's key rate expectations are used for NorwaySources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

60

80

100

120

140

160

60

80

100

120

140

160

Chart 1.4 Oil price (Brent Blend) and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports¹⁾.USD/barrel. January 2000 – December 2015

Oil price

Futures MPR 3/12

Futures MPR 2/12

Petroleum price

0

20

40

0

20

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exportsSources: Statistics Norway,Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

84

88

92

96

100

84

88

92

96

100

Chart 1.5 Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)¹⁾.January 2008 – December 2012

I-44

Projections MPR 3/12

104

108

104

108Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank


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1.5

2

1

1.5

2

Chart 1.6 Difference between 3-month money market rate and expected key rates.¹⁾ Percentage points. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4



0

0.5

0

0.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) Norges Bank's projections from 2012 Q4Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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11

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Chart 1.7 Key policy rate, premium in the money market¹⁾, risk premium 5-year covered bonds²⁾ and weighted average lending rate on new residential mortgages³⁾. Percent. 1 January 2008 – 25 October 2012

Risk premium 5-year covered bonds

Premium in the money market

Key policy rate

Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages)

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-121) 3-month NIBOR (effective)2) Indicative risk premium on 5-year covered bonds3) Nominal interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 2m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market shareSources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, DnB Nor Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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11

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Chart 1.8 Key policy rate, premium in the money market rate¹⁾, risk premiumon 5-year bank bonds²⁾ and average interest rate on corporate loans.Percent. 1 January 2008 – 25 October 2012

Risk premium 5-year bank bonds

Premium in the money market

Key policy rate

Average interest rate on corporate loans

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1

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3

0

1

2

3

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-121) 3-month NIBOR (effective)2) Indicative risk premium in 5-year bank bondsSources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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5

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25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Chart 1.9 Credit growth¹⁾ and house prices. 12-month change. Percent. January 2004 – December 2015²⁾

House prices

Credit growth

Projected house prices

Projected credit growth

-15

-10

-5

-15

-10

-5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20141) From January 1 2012 the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March 20122) House prices up to and including September, credit growth up to and including August.Projections to 2015 Q4, where debt growth is change in inventory Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank

115

120

125

130

135

140

115

120

125

130

135

140

Chart 1.10 GDP for Mainland Norway and selected trading partners. Index. 2004 = 100. 2004 – 2015

Norway

Euro area

USA

Trading partners

Sweden

95

100

105

110

95

100

105

110

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0

2.5

5

7.5

0

2.5

5

7.5

Chart 1.11 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Percent. January 2004 – September 2012

CPI 20% trimmed mean

CPI-ATE¹⁾ CPIXE²⁾

CPIM³⁾

-2.5

0

-2.5

0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 3) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries 5/2010 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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Chart 1.12 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾. Percent. 1981 – 2012

Variation

Inflation target

CPI

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2

4

0

2

4

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 20111) The moving average is calculated 10 years back2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation3) Estimate based on CPI projections in this ReportSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

2.5

5

2.5

5

Chart 1.13 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q3

Expected inflation 5 years ahead

Expected inflation 2 years ahead

002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economistsin the financial industry and academiaSources: TNS Gallup and Opinion Perduco

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Chart 1.14 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 2008 – December 2015

MPR 1/12

MPR 2/12

MPR 3/123/071/082/08

3/08

17 Dec 08

1/10 2/103/101/11

2/113/11

0

1

2

0

1

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Norges Bank

1/092/09

3/09 2/10 /

1/12 2/12 3/12

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Chart 1.15a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1– 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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2


1

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5

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Chart 1.15b Projected output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario withprobability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

-4

-3

-2

-1

-4

-3

-2

-1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP andprojected potential mainland GDPSource: Norges Bank

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Chart 1.15c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probabilitydistribution. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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1

2

3

4

5

Chart 1.15d Projected CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

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Chart 1.16 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹⁾ and estimated forward rates²⁾. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Estimated forward rates MPR 3/12

Estimated forward rates MPR 2/12

Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 3/12

Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 2/12

0

1

2

0

1

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market.2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue and red bands show the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 4 June – 15 June 2012 and 11 October – 25 October Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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1

2

3

4

580

83

86

89

92

95

98

Chart 1.17 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹⁾ and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)²⁾.January 2003 – December 2015³⁾

-2

-1

0

101

104

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

I-44 (left-hand scale)

3-month rate differential (right-hand scale)

1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 3) Monthly figures from January 2003 and Norges Bank projections from 2012 Q4 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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-1

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1

2

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Chart 1.18 Projected inflation¹⁾ and output gap in the baseline scenario.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Output gap (left-hand scale)

CPIXE (right-hand scale)

-1

0

1

-4

-3

-2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

100

150

200

250

4

6

8

10

12

Chart 1.19 Household debt burden¹⁾ and interest burden²⁾. Percent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2015 Q4

0

50

0

2

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Interest burden (left-hand scale)

Debt burden (right-hand scale)

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 20152) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2015 plus interest expensesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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Chart 1.20 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1– 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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Chart 1.21a Key policy rate. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

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Chart 1.21b Output gap. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

-4

-3

-2

-1

-4

-3

-2

-1


1.5

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1.5

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3.5

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Chart 1.21c CPIXE¹⁾. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

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0.5

1

0

0.5

1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

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Chart 1.22 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹⁾ Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2

Taylor rule

Growth rule

Rule with foreign interest rates

Model-robust rule

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario

0

1

2

0

1

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and 3-month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in 3-month money market ratesSource: Norges Bank

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3

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Chart 1.23 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾Percent. 2004 Q1 – 2013 Q2

90% confidence interval

Key policy rate in baseline scenario

0

1

2

0

1

2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and 3-month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2012 Q2. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussionSource: Norges Bank

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9

Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/12 with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/12 (red line). Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3


0

1

2

0

1

2

Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 2/12.Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2012 Q4 – 2015 Q4

Exchange rate Prices

Money market premiums Interest rates abroad

Lending margins Change in the interest rate forecast

-2

-1

-2

-1

2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4Source: Norges Bank

50

60

70

50

60

70US (ISM) Euro area Sweden

China UK

Chart 2.1 Manufacturing PMIs. Diffusion index centred around 50. January 2006 – October 2012

30

40

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Thomson Reuters

50

60

70

-5

0

5

10

15World trade (left-hand scale)

Global PMI new export orders (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.2 Growth in world trade and indicator of global exports. World trade: Three-month moving average. Past three months over previous three months. Percent. Global PMI export orders: Diffusion index centred around 50. January 2006 – September 2012

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-15

-10

5


3

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3

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8

Germany

Chart 2.3 Interest rate on new business loans to non-financial corporations. Loans up to EUR 1m. Maturity between 1 and 5 years. Key policy rate. Monthly figures. Percent. January 2006 - August 2012

0

1

2

0

1

2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spain

France

Italy

Minimum bid rate, ECB

Source: ECB

6

8

10

12

14

6

8

10

12

14

Unemployment rate

Unemployed over 15 weeks

Chart 2.4 US unemployment. Percent of labour force. January 2006 –September 2012

0

2

4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4


20

30

40

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60

20

30

40

50

60Manufacturing (31% of total)

Infrastructure (27% of total)

Real estate (24% of total)

Chart 2.5 Fixed asset investment in China. Value. Three-month moving average. 12-month change. Percent. January 2006 - September 2012

-10

0

10

-10

0

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sources: CEIC and Norges Bank

-1

0

1

2

-1

0

1

2

Historical growth



Chart 2.6 Quarterly GDP growth trading partners. Historical numbers and projections given at different points in time. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2

-3

-2

-3

-2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013




Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

2

4

6

8

10

2

4

6

8

10Advanced economiesEmerging market economiesHeadlineCore inflation

Chart 2.7 Consumer prices in advanced economies and emerging markets.¹⁾12-month change. Percent. January 2006 – September 2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-2

0

2

-2

0

2

1) GDP-weighted (PPP). Advanced economies: Australia, Canada, euro area, Japan, UK and US. Emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Sources: CEIC, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

Chart 2.8 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.Monthly figures. January 2003 – August 2015

Coal US¹⁾

Oil¹⁾

Gas UK¹⁾

Gas US¹⁾

Gas Russia

Gas Norway

Futures prices

0

5

0

5

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20151) For October 2012, calculated as daily averageSources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

300

400

500

600

700

300

400

500

600

700Aluminium

Copper

Wheat

Maize

Soybeans

Chart 2.9 Commodity prices. USD. Index, January 2003 = 100.Daily figures. January 2003 – December 2015

Futures prices

0

100

200

0

100

200

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Sources: CME Group, ICE and Thomson Reuters

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE

Chart 2.10 CPI, CPI-ATE1) and CPIXE2). 12-month change. Percent. January 2009 – February 20133)

002009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/20093) Projections for October 2012 – February 2013 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0

2.5

5

0

2.5

5

Chart 2.11 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector.12-month change. Percent. January 2009 – February 20132)

CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³⁾

-2.5-2.52009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Projections for October 2012 – February 2013 (broken lines) 3) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Chart 2.12 CPI-ATE. Domestically produced goods and services. Average12-month change. Percent. January – September 2012

0

0.5

Agriculture and fish products

Sheltered goods

Goods influenced by global market

prices

Goods influenced by global market competition

Rent Other services0

0.5

Source: Statistics Norway

-0.5

0

0.5

1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Chart 2.13 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 20121)

-1.5

-1

-1.5

-1

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

1) Projections for 2012Source: Norges Bank

1

2

3

1

2

3

MPR 3/12

SAM

CPI-ATE

Chart 2.14 CPI-ATE1). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM2,3) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2011 Q1 – 2013 Q14)

30% 50% 70% 90%

00mar. 11 sep. 11 mar. 12 sep. 12 mar. 13

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) System for averaging short-term models3) Projections from SAM is based on information up until 30 October4) Projections for 2012 Q4 – 2013 Q1 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and No

2

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7

2

3

4

5

6

7

MPR 3/12

SAM

GDP mainland Norway

Chart 2.15 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM1,2) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q43)

30% 50% 70% 90%

0

1

0

1

Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-121) System for averaging short-term models2) Projections from SAM is based on information up until 30 October3) Projections for 2012 Q3 – 2012 Q4 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

1

1.5

2

1

1.5

2

GDP mainland Norway

GDP mainland Norway except electricity production

Chart 2.16 GDP mainland Norway. Quartely change. Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2013 Q11)

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-130

0.5

0

0.5

1) Projections for 2012 Q3 – 2013 Q1Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Chart 2.17 GDP mainland Norway per capita. Annual change. Percent.1990 – 20151)

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014-4

-3

-2

-1

-4

-3

-2

-1

1) Projections for 2012 – 2015Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

GDP growth per capita

Average 1990 – 2011

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Domestically oriented manufacturing

Suppliers to the petroleum industry

Chart 2.18 Change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Index1). February 2003 – March 20132)

-3

-2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-3

-2 Export industry

Construction

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 denotes a sharp fall and +5 denotes strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network: fresh and useful information" in Economic Bulletin 2/2009 for further information 2) Latest observation in the Regional network is September 2012Source: Norges Bank

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

1

2

3

4

5Output gap MPR 3/12 (left-hand scale)

Capacity constraints (right-hand scale)

Labour supply (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.19 Capacity constraints and labour supply1) reported by the Regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. 2005 Q1 – 2012 Q3

10

20

-2

-1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank

5

0

5

10

15

5

0

5

10

15Saving ratio excl. dividend income

Saving ratio, adjusted ²⁾

Net lending ratio excl. dividend income

Chart 2.20 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 1992 – 20151)

-15

-10

-5

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012-15

-10

-5

1) Projections for 2012 – 2015 (broken lines)2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2015Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Chart 2.21 TNS Gallup’s trend indicator for households.Seasonally adjusted. Net figures. 1992 Q3 – 2012 Q4

-30

-20

-30

-20

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: TNS Gallup

TNS Gallup’s trend indicator

Average 1992 Q3 – 2012 Q3

4

6

8

4

6

8

Household consumption Household real disposable income

Chart 2.22 Household consumption1) and real disposable income2). Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 20153)

0

2

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20150

2

1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume2) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations3) Projections for 2012 – 2015 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale)Population growth (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.23 Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households1), and population growth2). 2003 – 2012

2003 2005 2007 2009 20110

10000

20000

-20000

-15000

-10000

1) Projections for 2011 and 20122) Projections for 2012Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

150

200

250

300

350

150

200

250

300

350

Business Housing

Chart 2.24 Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector. Constant 2009 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20121)

0

50

100

0

50

100

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

1) Projections for 2012Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1

0

1

2

-1

0

1

2

Regional network

Employment growth

Chart 2.25 Employment1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q42)

-2

1

-2

1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts2) Latest observation in the Regional network is September 2012. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2012 Q2, projections for 2012 Q3 – 2012 Q4 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

2

4

6

8

2

4

6

8

Annual wage growth Unemployment rate

Chart 2.26 Annual wage growth1) and LFS unemployment. Per cent. 1993 – 20132)

01993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

0

1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions2) Projections for 2012 – 2013 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

60

90

120

150

180

60

90

120

150

180

Chart 2.27 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2013 prices. In billions of NOK. 2003 – 20151)

Structural, non-oil deficit

Expected real return

0

30

60

0

30

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

1) Projections for 2012 – 2015Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

75

100

125

150

175

200

75

100

125

150

175

200

Chart 2.28 Petroleum investment. Constant 2009 prices. In billions of NOK.1992 – 20151)

0

25

50

0

25

50

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

1) Projections for 2012 – 2015 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Documents

Monetary Policy Report 3/12 - Norges Bank · Futures MPR 3/12 Futures MPR 2/12 Petroleum price 0 20 40 0 20 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1) Weighted average of Norwegian