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Monetary Policy Report 2/11
Charts
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16
0
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Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 1.1 Yield spreads against German 10-year government bonds.
Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 16 June 2011
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Portugal
Italy
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Europe is defined as the euro area and the UK
2) Weighted by GDP (PPP)
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart 1.2 Consumer prices in G20 – Advanced economies¹⁾ and emerging
markets.²⁾ 12-month change. Per cent. January 2003 – April 2011
Advanced economies Emerging markets
0
1
2
3
4
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6
7
0
1
2
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7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chart 1.3 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 10 March 2011 and
16 June 2011¹⁾. Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2014²⁾
US
Euro area
UK
1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 10 March 2011. Thin lines show forward
rates as at 16 June 2011. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates
2) Daily figures from 1 January 2008 and quarterly figures as at 16 June 2011
Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank
0
1
2
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6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Thomson Reuters
Chart 1.4 Yield on 10-year government bonds.
Per cent. 1 January 2003 – 16 June 2011
US
Euro area
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Most recent observation from the regional network is from May 2011
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.5 Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production
past three months and expected change in production next six months.
Per cent. 2003 – 2011¹⁾
-2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
-2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chart 1.6 Consumer prices. 12-month change.
Per cent. January 2003 – May 2011
CPI CPI-ATE ¹⁾
CPIXE ²⁾ CPI-FW ³⁾
20% trimmed mean CPIM⁴⁾
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time
figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009
3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 7/2009
4) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 5/2010
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Chart 1.7 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾. Per cent. 1981 – 2011
Variation
Inflation target
CPI
1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back
2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and
excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation
3) CPI projections in this Report form the basis for this estimate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2.5
5
0
2.5
5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists
(financial industry experts, macro analysts and academia)
Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco
Chart 1.8 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾ Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q2
Expected inflation 5 years ahead
Expected inflation 2 years ahead
0
0.5
1
1.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chart 1.9 Five-year forward rate¹⁾ differential 5 years ahead between Norway
and the euro area.²⁾ Percentage points. 1 January 2003 – 16 June 2011
1) Based on swap rates
2) Expected inflation can be derived from the long term interest rate differential. Due to a higher
inflation target in Norway, the long-term interest rate differential will normally be between 0.5 – 1
percentage point, depending on risk premium.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Interest burden (left-hand scale)
Debt burden (right-hand scale)
Chart 1.10 Household debt burden¹⁾ and interest burden²⁾. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2014 Q4¹⁾
1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested
dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014.
2) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated
reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for
2006 – 2014 plus interest expenses.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1) The squares show the average so far in 2011. A positive slope indicates weaker
competitiveness
Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements,
Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Chart 1.11 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period
1970 – 2010. Per cent. 1970 – 2011¹⁾
Relative wages
Relative consumer prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart 1.12 Three-month money market rates.¹⁾ Trading partners.
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Market MPR 2/11 (16 June)
Market MPR 1/11 (10 March)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.13a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart.
Per cent. 2008 Q1– 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and
projected potential mainland GDP
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.13b Estimated output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.13c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart.
Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.
As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank
Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.13d Projected CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.
Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) The Executive Board's decision of 22 June 2011 is not shown in the chart
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.14 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period,
actual developments¹⁾ and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.
Per cent. January 2008 – December 2014
MPR 2/11
MPR 1/11
MPR 3/10
MPR 2/10
Strategy period
3/07
1/08
Key policy
rate
2/08
3/08
17 Dec 08
1/09
2/09
3/09
1/10 2/10 3/10
1/11
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) Norges Bank's projections from 2011 Q2
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.15 Premiums in the Norwegian money market¹⁾ Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Premium MPR 2/11
Premium MPR 1/11
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5 85
88
91
94
97
100
103
106
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market,
transformed into 3-month money market rate
2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart 1.16 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹⁾ and
trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)²⁾. Monthly
figures (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). January 2003 – December 2014
I-44 (left-hand scale)
3-month rate differential (right-hand scale)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.
As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo
7/2008 and 3/2009
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.17 Projected inflation¹⁾ and output gap in the baseline scenario.
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Output gap (left-hand scale)
CPIXE (right-hand scale)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.18a Key policy rate. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
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5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.18b Output gap. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.
As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank
Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.18c CPIXE¹⁾. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
0
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chart 1.19 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary
policy rules.¹⁾ Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q1
Taylor rule
Growth rule
Rule with foreign interest rates
Key policy rate in the baseline scenario
1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank's projections for the output gap, consumer
prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices (CPIXE)
and 3-month money market rates. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the
simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in 3-month money market rates
Source: Norges Bank
0
1
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9
0
1
2
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chart 1.20 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹⁾ and
estimated forward rates²⁾. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Estimated forward rates
Money market rates in the baseline scenario
1) Key interest rate plus premium in the Norwegian money market, transformed to
3-month money market rate
2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band
shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 3 June – 16 June 2011
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chart 1.21 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from
Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾ Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q1
90% confidence interval
Key policy rate
1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP
growth, wage growth and key rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated
over the period 1999 Q1 – 2011 Q1. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion
Source: Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.22a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative
scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased price and cost inflation
Weaker growth abroad
30% 50% 70% 90%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.22b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative
scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased price and cost inflation
Weaker growth abroad
30% 50% 70% 90%
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chart 1.22c CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios.
Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased price and cost inflation
Weaker growth abroad
30% 50% 70% 90%
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from
August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009
Source: Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/11 with fan chart
and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/11 (red line).
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
Source: Norges Bank
-2
-1
0
1
2
2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 1/11.
Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2011 Q3 – 2014 Q4
Money market premium Accrual
Capacity utilisation Prices and costs
Interest rate abroad Exchange rate
Change in the interest rate forecast
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135 US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Japan
China
India
ASEAN¹⁾
Chart 2.1 GDP at constant prices. Index, 2008 Q1 = 100. 2007 Q1 – 2011 Q1
90
95
90
95
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: CEIC, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Production
Import volume
E t l
Chart 2.2 Industrial production, exports and imports in emerging economies. 12-month change. Per cent. 3-month moving average. January 2006 – March 2011
-25
-20
-25
-20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Thomson Reuters
Export volume
2
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
US
Euro area
UK¹⁾
Chart 2.3 Unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 2006 – May 2011
0
2
0
2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) UK; average unemployment past 3 months Source: Thomson Reuters
Sweden
Trading partners
1
2
3
4 US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Chart 2.4 Consumer prices excluding food and energy1). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – May 2011
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco for the euro area, UK and Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
6
8 US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Chart 2.5 Unit labour costs. Total economy. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1– 2010 Q4
-4 -4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: OECD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 Brazil Russia China India
Chart 2.6 Core inflation in emerging markets1). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – May 2011
-4
-2
-4
-2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) India; wholesale prices for manufactured goods Source: Thomson Reuters
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Chart 2.7 Oil price (Brent Blend), prices for Norwegian petroleum exports1) (USD/barrel). January 2003 – January 2014
Oil price
Futures
Futures as at MPR 1/11
Futures as at MPR 3/10
Petroleum price
0
20
0
20
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
5
10
15
20
25
5
10
15
20
25
Chart 2.8 Prices for coal, oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU. January 2003 – January 2014
Coal US¹⁾
Oil¹⁾
Gas UK¹⁾
Gas US¹⁾
Gas Russia
Gas Norway²⁾
Futures
0 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1) For June 2011 calculated as daily average 2) Calculation of future gas prices for Norway based on assumptions in 2011 National Budget Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
100
200
300
400
100
200
300
400 Overall
Food
Industrial goods
Non-food agriculturals
Metals
Chart 2.9 The Economist price indices. USD. Index, January 2003 = 100. January 2003 – June 2011
0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Thomson Reuters
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Aluminium
Copper
Wheat
Cotton
Chart 2.10 Commodity prices. USD. Spot and futures prices. Index, January 2003 = 100. January 2003 – December 2014
Futures
0
100
0
100
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Sources: CME Group and Thomson Reuters
2.5
5
7.5
2.5
5
7.5
CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE
Chart 2.11 CPI, CPI-ATE1) and CPIXE2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – March 20123)
0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 3) Projections for June 2011 – March 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to September 2011, then quarterly figures Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2.5
5
7.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
Chart 2.12 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – March 20122)
CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ³⁾
-2.5
0
-2.5
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Projections for June 2011 – March 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to September 2011, then quarterly figures 3) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1
2
3
4
5
50
55
60
65
70
75
Chart 2.13 Enterprises' price expectations next quarter and CPI-ATE1). Diffusion index from business tendency survey and four-quarter change CPI-ATE. 1991 Q1 - 2012 Q12)
Business tendency survey (manufacturing, consumer goods for domestic market, smoothed. Two quarters ahead)
CPI-ATE (right-hand scale)
-1
0
40
45
50
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-0.5
0
0.5
1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Chart 2.14 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. 2002 – 2011¹⁾
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1) Projections for 2011 Source: Norges Bank
1
2
3
1
2
3 MPR 2/11
SAM MPR 2/11
MPR 1/11
SAM MPR 1/11
Chart 2.15 CPI-ATE1). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM2) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q13)
30%
50%
70%
90%
0 0 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging models 3) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
0
2
4 Regional network
Mainland GDP growth
Chart 2.16 GDP mainland Norway1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q12)
-2 -2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume 2) Latest observation in the regional network is May 2011. Latest GDP observation is 2011 Q1, projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
120
130
140
150
160
120
130
140
150
160
Mainland Norway
Total
Chart 2.17 Terms of trade. Index. 2003 Q1 = 100. 2003 Q1 - 2011 Q1
90
100
110
90
100
110
2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mainland GDP
MPR 2/11
SAM
Chart 2.18 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM1) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q12)
30%
50%
70%
90%
-2
-1
0
1
-2
-1
0
1
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
1) System for averaging models 2) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
1
2
3
4
5 Output gap MPR 2/11 (left-hand scale)
Capacity constraints (right-hand scale)
Labour supply (right-hand scale)
Chart 2.19 Estimated output gap and capacity constraints and labour supply.1) Per cent. January 2005 – May 2011
10
20
30
-2
-1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand, and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Sources: Norges Bank and Norges Bank's regional network
200
300
400
500
200
300
400
500
Services Traditional goods
Chart 2.20 Exports from mainland Norway. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20111)
0
100
0
100
1992 1997 2002 2007
1) Projections for 2011 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
4
6
8
4
6
8
Household consumption Household real disposable income
Chart 2.21 Household consumption1) and real disposable income2). Annual change. Per cent. 2003 – 20143)
0
2
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0
2
1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume 2) Excluding dividend income 3) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15 Saving ratio excl. dividend income
Saving ratio, adjusted ²⁾
Net lending ratio excl. dividend income
Chart 2.22 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1992 – 20141)
-15
-10
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 -15
-10
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken lines) 2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
800
1000
1200
40
60
80
100
120
140
Chart 2.23 Housing starts1) and order intake for residential construction2). 1992 Q1 - 2011 Q1
Order intake (right-hand scale)
Housing starts (left-hand scale)
400
600
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 0
20
40
1) In 1000s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted 2) Value index deflated by the price index for housing investment in the national accounts. Deferred two quarters forward. 2007 = 100 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
150
200
250
300
350
150
200
250
300
350
Business Housing
Chart 2.24 Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20141)
0
50
100
0
50
100
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
4
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14 Business Housing Average business Average housing
Chart 2.25 Investment as share of GDP mainland Norway. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. 1978 Q1 – 2011 Q1
0
2
4
0
2
4
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: Statistics Norway
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Chart 2.26 GDP per hour worked for mainland Norway. Index, 1997 Q1 = 100. Seasonally adjusted. Market value. 1997 Q1 – 2012 Q11)
95
100
105
95
100
105
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
1) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
0
1
2 Regional network
Quarterly National Accounts
Chart 2.27 Employment growth1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q12)
-1 -1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change 2) Latest observation in the regional network is May 2011. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2011 Q1, projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
30
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
Net migration
Excess of births
Population growth
Chart 2.28 Population growth, net migration and excess of births. Sum of four previous quarters. In 1000s of persons. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q41)
0
10
20
0
10
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
1) Quarterly projections for 2011 Q2 - Q4. The squares show the annual average for 2012 - 2014 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2
3
4
5
2
3
4
5
Chart 2.29 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q11)
0
1
0
1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 Annual wage growth
Unemployment rate
Chart 2.30 Annual wage growth1) and LFS unemployment. Per cent. 1993 – 2014 2)
0
1
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 0
1
1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions 2) Projections for 2011 - 2014 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank
80
120
160
80
120
160
Chart 2.31 Actual use of oil revenues. The non-oil budget deficit. In billions of NOK. 2003 – 20111)
0
40
0
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Projections for 2011 Source: Ministry of Finance
60
90
120
150
180
60
90
120
150
180
Chart 2.32 Underlying use of oil revenues. Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2011 prices. In billions of NOK. 2001 – 20141)
Structural, non-oil deficit
Expected real return
0
30
60
0
30
60
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
60
90
120
150
60
90
120
150
Chart 2.33 Petroleum investment. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20141)
0
30
0
30
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
