Monday, December 07, 2009 Daily FundamentalMCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE Dec09 99.4 0.71 NCDEX CARDAMOM FUTURE Jan10 1013.5 0.57 Top Losers Exchange Commodity Price Chg % NCDEX TURMERIC FUTURE

Daily Fundamental

Monday, December 07,

2009

Market at a Glance

Top Gainers

Exchange Commodity Price Chg %

NCDEX PEPPER MALABAR GB Jan10 15679 1.2

NCDEX SILVER DELHI FUT Dec09 29015 0.84

NCDEX STEEL LONG Dec09 21760 0.83

MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE Dec09 99.4 0.71

NCDEX CARDAMOM FUTURE Jan10 1013.5 0.57

Top Losers

Exchange Commodity Price Chg %

NCDEX TURMERIC FUTURE Dec09 8730 -3.99

NCDEX GUR FUTURE Dec09 1070.8 -1.76

NCDEX JEERA UNJHA FUT Jan10 14851 -0.99

MCX NATURAL GAS FUT Dec09 215.1 -0.69

MCX GOLD FUTURE Feb10 17584 -0.62

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yen for the first time in three weeks and was on track for its best day against the Japanese currency since August, while the euro fell below $1.49 and headed for its biggest one-day decline since July. The dollar has lost 7 percent this year against six major currencies as markets have bet the United States would lag re-covery in the rest of the world and that the Fed would keep rates low indefinitely. Recent Fed statements about keeping U.S. rates low for an extended period have encouraged investors to use the dollar as a fund-ing vehicle with which to purchase higher-yield assets.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geith-ner on Thursday said it was vital to get U.S. budget deficits down in order to spur private-sector growth that creates jobs and predicted it will begin happening in 2011. The budget deficit hit a record $1.4 tril-lion in fiscal 2009 that ended Sept. 30 and is forecast to be in the same range next year, fostering doubt in global markets about the dollar's

value because of huge U.S. borrowing needs. Geithner said it was "important" for the United States to maintain a strong dollar and said he takes seriously its key posi-tion as a global reserve cur-rency. He said the United States needs to persuade the world it will be more fiscally responsible in future.

Today no important eco-nomic data will be released. However $1135 will act as a crucial support for gold be-low which the prices can touch $1080/ounce

Unemployment Rate and Non Farm Payrolls Fall in U.S

The U.S. labor market improved markedly in November, with the unemployment rate falling back to 10% and job losses shrinking to the lowest level in nearly two years, the Labor De-partment reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11,000 in No-vember, the fewest since December 2007. Payroll losses in September and October were re-vised lower by a total of 159,000.

Precious Metals

Events

Economic Calendar

Page 2 Da i ly Fundamenta l

Fall in unemployment

rate is good news for

American economy.

U.S. gold futures settled below $1,170 an ounce in choppy trade on Friday, losing 4 percent as bet-ter-than-expected jobs data sent the dollar sharply higher, triggering heavy margin selling.

COMEX February gold settled down $48.80, or 4 percent, at $1,169.50 an ounce. March silver ends down 60.8 cents, or 3.2 per-cent, at $18.520 an ounce, tracking gold's weakness.

The dollar soared against the yen and euro on Friday after data showed the United States shed far fewer-than-expected jobs last month, boosting hopes that recov-ery is picking up steam. Employers cut 11,000 non-farm jobs last month while markets had expected job losses of 130,000. The surpris-ingly strong report fed speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon have to consider raising interest rates from record lows, which would increase returns on dollar assets. The dollar broke above 90


Base Metals

Energy

Copper fell from the highest price in more than 14 months as a stronger dollar slashed demand from traders. Payrolls declined by 11,000, figures from the Labor Depart-ment showed on Dec. 4 in Washington, compared with the median forecast for a 125,000 decline. The jobless rate fell to 10%. The better-than-expected U.S. unemploy-ment data fueled optimism in the market that the U.S. econ-omy is indeed recovering, which may help metals de-mand. People are seeing this jobs number as an uptick in busi-ness activity. Copper is benefit-ing from the idea that this could bring some additional usage from the industrial sec-tor.

Still, copper inventories gained in the LME and Shanghai to 446,075 tons and 104,710 tons last week, respectively, adding pressure to the market in the short term. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, gained as much as 1.6% after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate fell. A quicker U.S. recovery may let the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next year. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators in-creased their net-long position in New York copper futures in the week ended Dec. 1, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

But copper demand in

Japan, which is less than

one-fifth of China's, is

likely to be slow to

recover.


Oil prices rebounded toward $76 a barrel on Monday, after shedding nearly $1 in the previ-ous session, as positive U.S. jobs data buoyed hopes that energy demand in the world's largest fuel consumer would soon improve.

NYMEX crude for January delivery rose 35 cents to $75.82 a barrel. The contract fell 99 cents to settle at $75.47 a barrel on Friday.

Oil ministers from Arab pro-ducers are comfortable with current crude prices and several on Friday saw no need for OPEC to change its output targets when it meets in Angola this month.

OPEC's compliance with its oil output targets is not tight

enough and should be at 65% or more rather than a current 60%, Kuwaiti

Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah said on Saturday. Mexico reopened its main oil ports on Sunday after a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico shuttered them over the weekend, the government said.

The dollar on Friday posted its best performance against a basket of currencies in nearly a year after data showed the United States lost far fewer jobs than expected last month, bolstering hopes the economy is on a stable path to recovery. U.S. employers cut far fewer jobs than expected last month in the best showing for the

labor market since the recession began, lifting the beleaguered U.S. dollar as investors bet a sustainable recovery was build-ing. Wall Street's rally may keep going next week on signs of stability in the labour market. But concerns about penny-pinching consumers during the holiday shopping season and the spectr of higher interest rates may be hurdles.

Expect a positive trend for the day.



Palm Oil & Mustard / RM Seed Palmoil prices traded on a

weaker note during Saturday’s

trading session on the back of

taking cues from crude prices

and soybean prices.

Indonesian palm oil exports are

estimated to have risen 16 per-

cent in October to 1.35 million

tonnes from the same month a

year ago, data from the Indone-

sian Palm Oil Producers Asso-

ciation (GAPKI). October ex-

ports, however, were slightly

below the 1.36million tonnes

Soy Bean

sharply, or 3.9 percent, to 990

pesos ($260) mirroring losses

in the benchmark CBOT after

local prices reached a five-month

high of 1,030 pesos ($270) per

tonne on Tuesday. In Argentina,

Rosario soy for delivery in May

2 0 1 0 , w h i c h

is quoted in U.S. dollars, fell $9

to $236 per tonne.

Soybean futures ended flat on

Saturday as pressure from weak

global leads was offset by firm

domestic demand and lower

arrivals. The December soybean

closed 0.04 percent lower at

2452.5.

On Cbot soybean futures fell

2 percent, pressured by a re-

bound in the dollar and weak

cash soy markets. Traders were

also taking profits after soy-

beans rallied to the highest spot

price in three months earlier

this week. Wet weather to slow

final soy harvest in the U.S.

southern, Delta and eastern

crop region at midweek, but

extended forecasts indicate

better harvest weather.

Spot basis bids for soybeans

rose in the eastern U.S. Mid-

west and declined in the west-

ern part of the region on

Wednesday, while bids for corn

were steady to slightly lower.

Argentina’s main grains market

of Rosario, soy prices fell

shipped in September, the data

s h o w e d .

Palm oil exports in the first ten

months rose 16 percent to

12.76 million tonnes from 11

million tonnes in the same pe-

riod of last year.

Market witness some sell-off

on the back of profit booking

weak crude prices and weak

bean prices..

Taking cues from soy and palm

oil prices mustard seed traded

on a mix note as output con-

cern still lingers.


Pepper

Chilli & Turmeric

Jeera (Cumin)

Pepper futures on Saturdaywit-nessed high volatility and closed marginally below the previous close on selling pressure. Inves-tors were selling validity expired stock at Rs 250 below the De-cember price and buying De-cember fresh pepper at Rs 100 below the December price.

Thus, there was a selling pres-sure pushing the prices down after moving up significantly till the afternoon trading.

A total of 75-80 tonnes of MG1, validity expired and farm grade pepper were traded. Total turnover increased by 2,130

tonne to 17,183 tonnes. Total open interest increased by 364 tonnes to 13,964 tonnes. December open interest dropped by 912 tonnes to 4,889 tonnes. January open interest increased by 1,220 tonnes indicat-ing switching over.

Spot prices ruled steady at previous levels of Rs 14,800 (un-garbled) and Rs 15,300 (MG 1) a quintal.

Indian parity in the international market continued to remain out-priced at $3,525 - $3,550 a tonne (c&f).

Chilli prices traded on a weaker note during Saturday's trad-ing session. Market opened on a steady note with some upside but after which prices slumped and closed in negative trajec-tory.

This was nothing to do with physical buying activity but was primarily influenced by profit booking and expectation of normal output in Guntur re-gion. Going further markets will be taking cues from the development of new crop i8n major producing centre in Guntur.

Turmeric futures edged down in a volatile trade on Saturday as hopes recent rains in growing areas would improve yields outweighed depleting stockpile. Major turmeric producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Maharash-tra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu received rains earlier

Carry-forward stocks were low as output had fallen sharply last year due to low acreage and bad weather.

The supply crunch is support-ing the upside and it will remain till fresh arrivals hit the market. Turmeric arrivals usually start in mid-January in small quantities

“Jeera prices rises

slumps as traders

awaits demand to

pick up ”


and gain momentum from March.

The peak season runs till June. Nizamabad, a major spot mar-ket in Andhra Pradesh, was closed on Monday for a local festival.

Slump in prices was also on the back of profit booking.

Jeera futures ended down Satur-day on profit-taking after prices rose more than 10 percent in the last six sessions. Fundamen-tals, however, remained firm on dipping acreage that sparked worries of lower crop and firm export demand.

In the international market In-dia is still quoting less than other origins so exports are

good and weather problems have already delayed sowing, so the output this season can be lower.

A prolonged hot and dry spell has delayed the sowing of cumin, or jeera, slashing acreage 25-30 percent from last year, but defi-cit could narrow if conditions improve.

Spot market in Unjha is close

from 26th Nov’09 to 2nd Dec’09 and or that reason mar-ket will lack cues from the fun-damentals.

Prices are expected to continue its uptrend as it lacks funda-mental cues and will be driven by sentiment and speculation..


Weather - Update

♦ Maximum temperatures are below normal by 5-8°C over

parts of northwest India, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat

and Maharashtra, by 2-4°C over west Uttar Pradesh and

north interior Karnataka. They are above normal by 2-

4°C over east India and parts of extreme south peninsula

and near normal over rest of the country.

♦ Fairly wide spread rainfall occurred over Madhya Ma-

harashtra and Konkan & Goa. The significant amount of

rainfall (in cm) recorded at 1730 hours IST of today are:

Honaver-9, Mahabaleswar-7, Nedumbassery, Nasik, Pune

and Mumbai-4 each, Satara and Mangalore-3 each.

♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Konkan,

Madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat during next 24

hours.

♦ Squally winds speed reaching 50-55 kmph gusting to 65

kmph are likely along and off Maharashtra coast during

next 06 hours.

♦ Sea condition will be rough along and off Maharashtra

coast during next 12 hours.

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Documents

Monday, December 07, 2009 Daily FundamentalMCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE Dec09 99.4 0.71 NCDEX CARDAMOM FUTURE Jan10 1013.5 0.57 Top Losers Exchange Commodity Price Chg % NCDEX TURMERIC FUTURE