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Monday
June 6, 2016
www.bloombergbriefs.com
Yellen Speaks; U.S.-China Talks; Fed's May LMCIBEN BARIS AND JAMES BATTY, BLOOMBERG BRIEF EDITORS
WHAT TO WATCH: Federal Reserve Chair will address the World Janet YellenAffairs Council of Philadelphia at 12:30 p.m. Follow the TOPLive blog on the Bloomberg terminal for coverage of Yellen's speech .here
ECONOMICS: The Fed's , released at 10 a.m., will Labor Market Conditions Indexoffer more details on the U.S. job market in May following the surprise downside miss in the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Boston Fed President the Eric Rosengren saidlatest economic data had been "choppy," but that he still expects sufficient economic growth to "justify a gradual removal of accommodation" in a keynote address given at the Helsinki Central Banking Conference.
GOVERNMENT: The U.S. and China will discuss economic cooperation, cyber security and tension in the South China Sea when Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Secretary of State John Kerry visit Beijing through tomorrow. The U.S.-China Climate Forum runs concurrently.
MARKETS: The pound slumped following polls showing Brexit gaining ground.
(All times local for New York.)
Click to view a live version of this chart on the Bloomberg terminalhere .
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"The revisions were so significantit does begin to paint a trend of deceleration over three months. Ifind it hard to fathom we’re going to speak a month from now and find all this has been bad a dream."— Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern
Trust Corp., on the May reportjobs
COMMENTARY IN THIS ISSUE
The acute in May non-farm weaknesspayrolls extended far beyond what could be attributed to the impact of the Verizon strike, signaling fundamental frailty in the U.S. economy. Carl Riccadonna,
and Yelena Shulyatyeva Richard Yamarone.
Are businesses running up against the limits of how many jobs they can create?It have to be that way: doesn't Mark Whitehouse.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen's June 6 address to the World Affairs Council is the most important economic event of the — weekparticularly after the dismal jobs report: Bloomberg Intelligence Economists.
EQUITIES DATA MONITOR
BIG PICTURE CARL RICCADONNA, YELENA SHULYATYEVA AND RICHARD YAMARONE, BLOOMBERG ECONOMISTS
Solid Claims Level Doesn't Let Jobs Report off the Hook
Following the weak non-farm payrolls report Friday, several market professionals advanced the argument that the jobs number wasn't so bad because jobless claims remain low. Real-world considerations and data analysis counter this notion. Managers facing a slowdown stop hiring before they start firing, which incurs costs. Hiring activity stalls or weakens before similar developments in jobless claims. In November 1998, payroll growth held a flat trend while claims continued to trend lower for another 17 months to April 2000. During the next cycle, payrolls began to deteriorate in November 2005 while claims held stable until August 2007, a 21-month spread. In the current cycle, payroll growth has deteriorated at an accelerating pace over the past 19 months, while claims have continued to trend lower.
— TJ Marta, Bloomberg First WordNote: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Source: Bloomberg
Gauges of materials producers were the biggest gainers on both the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index after U.S. jobs data crushed speculation the Fed will raise interest rates by July.
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 2
BIG PICTURE CARL RICCADONNA, YELENA SHULYATYEVA AND RICHARD YAMARONE, BLOOMBERG ECONOMISTS
Hiring Stall Slashes Chances of Fed Rate Increase in JuneThe acute weakness in May non-farm
payrolls extended far beyond what could be attributed to the impact of the Verizon strike, signaling fundamental frailty in the U.S. economy. The broad-based weakness and substantial revisions to previous months suggest that larger forces are at play. The poor payrolls result eclipses the any positive implications froma falling unemployment rate for two primary reasons: Unemployment fell for the wrong reasons and payrolls are a better concurrent indicator of economic activity than the unemployment rate.
This jobs report significantly complicates the Fed’s objective of raising rates later this summer. The June meetingis now absolutely too soon for them to have confidence that the economy has righted itself following the first quarter growth stall. July remains possible, assuming that a range of data rebound materially later in the quarter — including the pace of hiring.
There will be one more jobs report before the July FOMC meeting. If Fed Chair Janet Yellen only halfheartedly defends the potential for a July move when she speaks on June 6, and again when she testifies before Congress on June 21-22, the potential for the Fed to deliver two rate increases in 2016 will be significantly reduced.
Non-farm payrolls advanced by a lowly 38,000 during May, well below the consensus estimate of 160,000. It was theweakest monthly posting since September2010, when they fell by 52,000. To make matters worse, the previous two months suffered notable downward revisions. The April increase stands at 123,000, downwardly revised from 160,000, while the March gain was cut to 186,000 after an initially reported as a 208,000 increase. The two-month net revision was minus 59,000. The second-quarter average monthly increase currently stands at 80,000, the slowest since the third quarter of 2010.
The Verizon work stoppage reduced growth in May non-farm payrolls by 37,000. Ex-telecommunications payrolls increased by a still-lousy 75,000. History suggests the impact of the strikes should be temporary and net hiring will likely reverse after the strike ends. Thus, the June payrolls report will be boosted by
Read the full analysis with additional live charts on the Bloomberg terminal . here
roughly 40,000 as Verizon workers get back to work.
Private-sector hiring slowed even more than the headline reading, plummeting to just 25,000 in May from 130,000 in April. Private service-sector payrolls have steadily decelerated since the beginning of this year — in February they stood at 242,000, falling to just 61,000 in May.
The one-month payroll diffusion index of 262 industries fell to 51.3 last month, following a 53.8 posting during April. This is the lowest level since February 2010. Readings above 50 denote expansion, so the breadth of job creation remains positive, albeit at a less desirable pace.
The unemployment rate declined sharply to 4.7 percent, from 5.0 percent the prior month, but for unfavorable reasons — specifically declining labor force participation. The fall in unemployment totaled 484,000, but this was almost entirely due to labor force dropouts. The size of the labor force fell by 458,000. The participation rate fell to 62.6 percent from 62.8 percent prior. The rebound in participation earlier this year, which was a welcome development to forecasters who believed that rising wages could entice individuals back into the workforce, appears to be stalling out.
The broader U-6 unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7 percent. The current reading stands below the 12-month moving average of 10.0 percent,
suggesting continued progress in reducing labor-market slack.
Average hourly earnings advanced 0.2 percent last month. This followed an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in April initially estimated to have increased 0.2 percent. Average hourly earnings are now 2.5 percent higher than year-ago levels. The current pace is slightly softer than the 2.6 percent postings of October and December and only a tad stronger than the 2.4 percent pace averaged over the last 12 months. They remain range-bound.
The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours in May after April was revised lower to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours. A flat workweek combined with a low net hiring number, resulting in weak growth in aggregate hours of 0.1 percent versus 0.1 percent prior. Upon accounting for the modest rise in average hourly earnings, aggregate income growthrose just 0.3 percent versus 0.5 percent prior. The 12-month change decelerates to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent prior.
Aggregate income is running at a pace that should support only moderate consumer spending gains, particularly as inflation pressures rise due to the reboundin energy prices. Aggregate hours growthimparts some downside risks to tracking estimates for second-quarter GDP growth, which had previously approached the 2.5-2.9 percent range.
Employment Diffusion Index Falls to Lowest Since 2010
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 3
WEEK AHEAD CARL RICCADONNA, YELENA SHULYATYEVA AND RICHARD YAMARONE, BLOOMBERG ECONOMISTS
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 4
WEEK AHEAD CARL RICCADONNA, YELENA SHULYATYEVA AND RICHARD YAMARONE, BLOOMBERG ECONOMISTS
Yellen Gets Last Word Following Hiring SwoonFed Chair Janet Yellen's June 6
to the World Affairs Council is addressundoubtedly the most important economic event of the week — particularly after the dismal May jobs report. Economists are cautious not to overreact to one month's hiring data, but large downward revisions to March-April establish a compelling pattern of a slowdown. The economy is recovering from a weak first quarter, and the hiring stall may simply be a lingering aftereffect. Yet the rebound is tepid and casts doubt on the need for further rate hikes.
While Yellen briefly commented on the monetary policy outlook in response to a question at Harvard's Radcliffe Day, her appearance Monday in Philadelphia is a more appropriate platform for her to elaborate on the outlook. Following the May jobs report, she will have the opportunity to seal the fate of a potential rate hike in June. In fact, she will likely have the last word on the matter, as it is the last scheduled speech by a Fed official ahead of the June 15 rate decision.
Yellen expressed solidarity in earlier comments with a range of officials who advocated for a mid-year move. With respect to timing, she indicated a move could be appropriate in the coming months — so she did not express a predilection for June. Mostly likely, she will keep July squarely in her sights.
The data are often overlooked JOLTSby market participants because they trail the official jobs report by a month. However, there are important economic signals to be gathered from the underlying details. The March JOLTS indicated a surge in job openings, sending a compelling signal that the pace of hiring should accelerate this year. But payrolls fell sharply in May, and were significantly revised down in April.
JOLTS data for April, released Wednesday, should help better understand the reasons for the deceleration in job gains in the previous jobs report. This could give analysts some clues about the reasons behind an even sharper deceleration in May.
View a more comprehensive week ahead preview on the Bloomberg terminal .here
One of the most encouraging economic data points of the last year has been the low level of . This implies jobless claimsbusinesses are confident and optimistic that demand will be strong enough to justify current staff levels. Initial claims fell 1,000 to 267,000 during the week ended May 28, carrying an associated four-week moving average of 277,000, which is essentially the same as the 278,000 average for all of 2015. There would have to be a considerable surge in claims to signal an alarm.
Household balance sheets have recovered from the housing bust and financial crisis. Household assets increased at the end of 2015, driven by home-price appreciation and stock-market gains. Household net worth rose by $1.6 trillion in the fourth quarter. Housing prices increased significantly in the beginning of this year and stocks ended the first quarter on a positive note after falling sharply in January-February. This suggests another gain in household net worth in the first quarter of around $1 trillion in Thursday's report.
Consumer sentiment will warrant much closer scrutiny, given the heightened uncertainty toward the near-term economic outlook following recent
negative data surprises including the jobs report and non-manufacturing ISM. The economy is bouncing back from a first-quarter stall, but only moderately, in large part due to a measured improvement in household spending. Income growth, as implied by the jobs report, is likely to be modest in May, thereby depriving households of the necessary funds to bolster spending.
Consensus expects a minor decline in the preliminary June sentiment result, released Friday, to 94 versus 94.7 in May. The risks tilt toward a weaker result, given the recent turn in the data. It will be worth watching for corroboration of broadening wage pressures noted in the Fed's Beige Book.
The FOMC's June meeting is now absolutely too soon for policy makers to have confidence that the economy has recovered from the first-quarter growth stall. July remains possible, assuming thata range of data rebounds materially later in the quarter including retail sales, and most importantly June payrolls, released on July 8. If the rebound in the economic data is mild and the Fed delays beyond July, they will likely be forced to accept just one rate increase in 2016, given the timing of the presidential election.
COMMENTARY: LABOR FORCE MARK WHITEHOUSE, BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG VIEW COLUMNIST
Sentiment Vulnerable to Payroll Slump
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 5
COMMENTARY: LABOR FORCE MARK WHITEHOUSE, BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG VIEW COLUMNIST
The Jobs Recovery Doesn't Have to Be OverAfter U.S. employers turned in their
worst hiring performance in almost six years, the people responsible for managing the economy must be wondering: Are businesses running up against the limits of how many jobs they can create?
It doesn't have to be that way.The May jobs report offers troubling
signals that the U.S. economy may be nearing its capacity to generate jobs. Non-farm employers added only 38,000 workers — a number that, even accounting for a Verizon Communications strike that took about 35,000 people off payrolls, fell far short of expectations. The unemployment rate declined to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, due to a drop in the number of people seeking work actively enough to be counted as unemployed. That's well below the level that economists see as full employment, the point at which further hiring tends to push up wages and inflation.
To be sure, the jobs data are volatile and subject to revision, so one shouldn’t jump to conclusions from one month's data. More important, though, the headline numbers don’t tell the whole story. Because the unemployment rate counts only those who have sought work in the past four weeks, it misses millions of jobless who for one reason or another are staying on the sidelines. Employment among people in the prime working years of 25 to 54, for example, remains about 2.8 million jobs short of what would have been considered normal before the 2007-2009 recession.
The crucial question, then, is whether those people will work. If they've given up, or if their skills have irreparably deteriorated, then maybe the damage done by the recession can’t be reversed any further. If better prospects can bring them into the job market, then employers can keep hiring without unduly pushing up wages.
One way to get a sense: Look at the actual monthly flows of people into the labor force. If they're already abnormally low as a share of the population, coaxing more people to join probably won't be easy. If they're within the historical range,
there may be hope.The data are encouraging. Throughout
much of the current recovery, a large share of the population has started seeking work after being out of action — meaning these people went from being classified as "not in the labor force" to "unemployed." That percentage has declined — to an average of 0.75 percent in the three months through May -- but hasn’t fallen below its level at the peaks of the last two economic expansions. (Top chart).
Perhaps more promising, a lot of people are going straight from the sidelines into jobs, without even showing up as unemployed. On average in the three months through May, 1.67 percent of the
population did so. That's a bit less than in previous months, but still high by historical standards. (Bottom chart).
In short, the evidence suggests that workers are available, if only employers saw enough demand for goods and services to keep hiring. This, together with persistently below-target inflation, supports the case for more ambitious stimulus policies such as infrastructure investment and possibly even direct payments from the central bank to taxpayers. Failing to consider such measures would risk leaving millions of potential workers behind.
This column does not necessarily reflect the
opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP
and its owners.
DATA & EVENTS
Coming Off the Sidelines
Getting Straight to Work
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 6
DATA & EVENTS
TIME COUNTRY EVENT SURVEY PRIOR
8:30 Chile Economic Activity YoY 1.90% 2.10%
8:30 Chile Economic Activity MoM -0.30% -0.10%
9:00 Mexico Consumer Confidence Index 89.7 88.9
10:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence — 57.5
10:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index Change -0.8 -0.9
10:00 Ecuador CPI MoM — 0.31%
10:00 Ecuador CPI YoY — 1.78%
10:20 Brazil Vehicle Production Anfavea — 169813
10:20 Brazil Vehicle Sales Anfavea — 162939
10:20 Brazil Vehicle Exports Anfavea — 37851
14:00 Brazil Trade Balance Weekly — —
19:01 U.K. BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY 0.30% -0.90%
19:50 Japan Official Reserve Assets — $1262.5bSource: Bloomberg. Surveys updated at 5:50 a.m. New York time.
Click for the full story and a live version of this chart on the Bloomberg terminal.here
CALENDAR
OVERNIGHT
German factory orders declined in April as demand for investment goods from outside the 19-nation currency region slumped. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 2 percent from the prior month, when they rose a revised 2.6 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed today. The reading, which is typically volatile, compares with economists’ forecast for a drop of 0.5 percent. Orders slid 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
China must improve monetary policy communication as it takes on an increasingly large role in the global economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary
said today in an interview Jacob J. Lew ahead of talks in Beijing between the two countries. Market gyrations following the People’s Bank of China’s decision in August to devalue the yuan reflected “something that was confusing and not well communicated, and it gave rise to fears that China’s economy was in a much weaker place than it actually appears to be or was perceived by policy makers to be,” Lew said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
China's jobless rate may be three times the official estimate, according to a new report by , whose Fathom ConsultingChina's Underemployment Indicator has tripled to 12.9 percent since 2012 even while the official jobless rate has hovered near 4 percent for five years.
The expects the Bank of Indonesiaeconomy to grow by 5.2-5.6 percent next year as global conditions improve, Governor said in Agus Martowardojoparliament during the 2017 budget discussion. It also expects average rupiah seen at 13,600-13,900 per dollar in 2017 and inflation at 3-5 percent. The central bank sees a wider current-account deficit in 2017 while remaining at a “healthy level”, with the balance of payments expected to be in surplus.
Europe
Asia
GLOBAL EVENTS CALENDAR BY PHYLLIS HALLIDAY, STEVE GEIMANN AND STANLEY JAMES
FX Strategists Say the Rebound in the Dollar Is History
The greenback dropped the most in six months versus the euro after a report showing the weakest U.S. jobs growth since 2010 scuppered speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as this month. The dollar’s tumble was the biggest post-payrolls move in at least a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Soft nonfarm payrolls have destroyed three weeks worth of dollar gains,” said Petr Krpata, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Bank NV in London. “We have seen a massive selloff across the board,” and there aren’t many catalysts for a rebound, he said. The setback is signaling to strategists and traders that May’s gains were just a respite from a bearish trend in the dollar that’s taken hold since the new year.
— Lananh Nguyen and Andrea Wong, Bloomberg News
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 7
GLOBAL EVENTS CALENDAR BY PHYLLIS HALLIDAY, STEVE GEIMANN AND STANLEY JAMES
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may
give investors some clues to her thinking about
the economy when she speaks Monday ahead of
policy-makers’ mid-month meeting. ECB
President Mario Draghi highlights the Brussels
Economic Forum. The World Bank issues its
economic outlook for 2016. California is the
biggest prize among six states holding primaries
or caucuses as Hillary Clinton nears the total she
needs to clinch the Democratic presidential
nomination.
CENTRAL BANKS: Turkey central bank’s May effective exchange rate, Bank of Israel minutes.
ECONOMY: Euro area retail PMI (May), Taiwan foreign reserves (May).
U.S. and presidential primaries held in California, Montana, caucuses
New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota (Democrats only) and South Dakota.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet with President Barack Obamain Washington to discuss trade, energy, environment and defense. Modi will also address a joint session of Congress. Through June 8.
U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarlingwill give details about the Republican plan to replace the Dodd-Frank Act in a speech to the Economic Club of New York. 07:30 EDT in New York City.
ECB Member of the Supervisory Board and , Ignazio Angeloni Jose Vinals
director of the monetary and capital markets department of the IMF, will speak on a panel organized by the European American Chamber of Commerce. In New York City at 11:25 EDT.
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameronmakes the case to stay in the European Union, and U.K. Independence Party leader argues for leaving Nigel Farageduring an ITV program ahead of the June 23 referendum. Starts 16:00 EDT in London. On Thursday, ITV will broadcast a pro- and anti-Brexit debate at 15:00 EDT in London.
MONDAY, June 6
TUESDAY, June 7
The World Bank issues its Global, Economic Prospects 2016 report
following a January projection for 2.9 percent global growth this year. 16:01 EDT from Washington.
CENTRAL BANKS: Argentina Central Bank monthly monetary report, Australia rate decision.
ECONOMY: U.S. productivity and costs (1Q, revisions), U.S. consumer credit (April), China foreign reserves (May), Euro-area GDP (1Q), German industrial production (April), Halifax U.K. house prices (May), Hong Kong foreign reserves (May), Taiwan CPI (May), Taiwan imports, exports, trade balance (May), South Africa gross and net reserves (May), South Africa business confidence (May), Israel foreign currency balance (May).
The Labor Department will report on U. for April at 10:00 in S. job openings
Washington. March’s total was the second-highest on record.
probably will Brazil’s central bankkeep its key interest rate at a nine-year high of 14.25 percent for a seventh straight meeting. 18:00 EDT in Brasilia.
Prime Minister and Justin Trudeau Finance Minister are Bill Morneau keynote speakers at the Economist’s Canada Summit. Begins at 08:30 EDT in Toronto.
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi to present 2016-17 .budgets
CENTRAL BANKS: Brazil rate decision, Portugal updates forecasts.
U.S. MBA mortgage ECONOMY: applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation (May), Chile inflation (May), China imports, exports, trade balance (May), Japan current account (April), Japan final reading of GDP (1Q), Turkey industrial production (April), U.K. industrial production (April), South Africa GDP (1Q).
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen will hold a news conference to Poloz
discuss the semi-annual Financial System Review. 10:30 EDT in Ottawa.
WEDNESDAY, June 8
THURSDAY, June 9
ECB President Mario Draghi opens the , which Brussels Economic Forum
begins at 02:45 EDT in Brussels. Other scheduled participants include ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau and European Stability Mechanism CEO Klaus Regling.
European Union home-affairs ministers begin a two-day meeting to discuss Europe’s and visa migration crisisliberalization for Turkey. In Luxembourg through June 10.
Finance ministers gather for the Asia- in Ulaanbaatar, Europe Meeting
Mongolia. Through June 10.
CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Canada financial system review, rate decisions in Peru and New Zealand, Bank of Korea policy board meeting.
ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. wholesale inventories (April), U.S. household change in net worth (1Q), Germany exports and imports (April), France non-farm payrolls (1Q), U.K. RICS house price balance (May), U.K. trade balance (April), Mexico inflation (May), China CPI, PPI (May), South Africa manufacturing production (April), South Africa mining production (April), Japan machine orders (April).
U.S. consumer sentiment probably climbed in June as Americans’ views of their finances hovered close to the decade-high level reached in May. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index will be issued at 10:00 EDT.
German Chancellor Angela Merkeland Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
speak on the European Steinmeier Union’s future at a convention of German family-owned companies. 04:45 EDT in Berlin.
ECONOMY: Canada jobs report (May), U.S. monthly budget statement (May), Mexico industrial production (April), China aggregate financing, new yuan loans, M2 money supply (May), Turkey current-account deficit (April) and GDP(1Q), Italy industrial production (April), France industrial production (April).
FRIDAY, June 10
MARKET INDICATORS
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 8
MARKET INDICATORS
FEDSPEAK CHRISTOPHER CONDON, BLOOMBERG NEWS
Source: Bloomberg. Updated 5:50 a.m. New York time.
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 9
FEDSPEAK CHRISTOPHER CONDON, BLOOMBERG NEWS
Fed’s Brainard Urges Caution Amid Mixed Data and Global RisksFederal Reserve Governor Lael
Brainard said that the latest U.S. employment report suggested the labor market has slowed, as she continued to warn against moving too quickly to raise interest rates and cautioned not to take the U.S. recovery “for granted.”
“In this environment, prudent risk management implies there is a benefit to waiting for additional data to provide confidence that domestic activity has rebounded strongly and reassurance that near-term international events will not derail progress toward our goals,” Brainard said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery Friday in Washington.
“Several factors suggest that the appropriate path to return monetary policy to a neutral stance could turn out to be quite shallow and gradual in the medium term,” she told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Brainard said Friday’s job numbers
Read the full story .here
“suggest that the labor market has slowed” even as she argued that slack remains in the labor force and wages
remain low. She pointed to the historically low level of employment-to-population in the U.S. as a possible explanation.
Market Takes June Hike Off the Table After May Jobs Bust
June 6, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Economics 10
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