Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI ... · Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI Biohazards Solutions Innovators. Profile of Mohammed Rafiuddin ... Costvariance(CV)=BCWP-ACWP

Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI Biohazards Solutions Innovators

Profile of Mohammed Rafiuddin Mohammed is an active member of AACE International since 2006 with 30

years of experience in project management, contracts management, projectcontrols. He is currently serving as CEO and General Manager of BIOSI, aHealth Care Management Company. He is joining the AACE Internationalboard from June 2017 to serve as VP International regions.

Mohammed was the Director Region 7 comprising Middle east and NorthAfrica for the term 2014-16. He served as President of Arabian Gulf Sectionfor two terms 2011-12 and 2013-14.

Mohammed holds a Bachelor Degree in Civil Engineering from OsmaniaUniversity, India and a Master Degree in Engineering Management fromKFUPM, Saudi Arabia.

He holds PMP,CCP and PSP certifications; is a lead instructor teaching forCCP, PSP and Risk Management certifications .

Mohammed is passionate about knowledge sharing and mentoring..

Outline• Overview of Project Management• Modern day project controls scenario• Project management myths• Interaction of management and system skills• One dimensional specialization• Integrated project control techniques• Quantitative Risk Analysis – Schedule example• Conclusion and References

Outline• Overview of Project Management• Modern day project controls• Project management myths• Interaction of management and system skills• One dimensional specialization• Integrated project control techniques• Quantitative Risk Analysis – Schedule example• Conclusions and References

What is a project? What is project management?• Is a temporary endeavor that has a start and end date• Has some objectives or goals that can be defined, measured

and are to be achieved• Objectives are usually measured in terms of time and cost or a

combination of both. • Usually a third dimension of Quality is required that is very

difficult to measure• Project Management is management of the parameters of cost

and time in order to achieve the objectives• Project Controls, as a subset of project management, is a

relatively new discipline that focuses on time and cost management and is influenced by the use of technology

Outline• Overview of Project Management• Modern day project controls scenario• Project management myths• Interaction of management and system skills• One dimensional specialization• Integrated project control techniques• Quantitative Risk Analysis – Schedule example• Conclusions and References

Modern day project controls scenario• Is a common sight to see a mix of young system literate project

controllers mix up with experienced less computer literate • Accelerating transfer of experience and systems knowledge is a

major challenge• System skills like Primavera are becoming an entry level

requirement to project controls rather than project delivery background

• Project Controllers are expected to plan the project as well as take care of Cost engineering issues like Client invoices, Budgets and project P and L.

• Most of the PCMs’are from Finance background and a very few are Engineers.


Project management myths• Project Management is too complex to be computerized.

• This involves leadership, teamwork using judgment, problem solving which cannot be computerized.

• Project management is an art of integrating flair, taking initiatives and intuitive judgment with the efficient data processing capabilities of computer as tools

• Project planning never works as things always go wrong• Project planning is not done to ensure that everything goes right but

a project plan is devised to show when things go wrong• Negative floats, variances and schedule slippages prompt you to

assess the implications and take corrective actions to bring the project back on course.

Project management myths• Project planners don’t know enough about project management to

produce good plans• Project planning is considered as service to the project manager• Majority of planners are software jockeys, just out of college, who know only

about planning techniques whereas project managers have gained their position via “university of life”.

• There is a false belief that project planning is just a collection of techniques.

What is project planning ?• Project planning is a combination of tools and experience and is a

teamwork exercise. • One of the team members who is a systems expert gathers all the

relevant information and presents that in a form that suits the technique

• With Modern day fast track projects and project delivery pressures, can the project managers avoid embracing these jockeys?


Typical Project management tasks• Plan the work • Control the progress• Control Resources and costs• Lead the project team• Coordinate subcontractors and specialists• For some tasks, project manager has to rely

on his soft skills and for some he is aided by the use of computers.

Plan the work• Determine and clarify the objectives• Determine how the objectives can be achieved• What are the activities that are to be performed?• What are the resources needed to achieve the

objectives?• Estimate how long activities need to be performed i.e

Activity durations which are usually not deterministic ( uncertain)

• Activity durations are determined based on the judgment of the project manager /team taking feedback from the previous projects.

B. Control the progress• As work progress project team wants to compare what

was planned and what is achieved.• The main question PM team would ask is how much more

is to be achieved• Progress data is fed into the computer and a status report

is generated that helps the PM team analyze and take corrective action if required in order to meet the objectives

• PM team can devise alternative ways to meet the objectives and can use computer to run different what-if scenarios ( monte carlo simulation)


Current scenario• External resource market place or education system produces

one dimensional specialist like planners, cost engineers, Estimators that do not suit the modern day project controls discipline.

• Planners can only plan the project and develop the schedule• Cost Engineers can only take care of Project accounting

aspects• Estimators have no clue of planning and scheduling

Modern project controls requirement• Project controls Manager or Project Controls Engineer is

responsible for project estimating, change management, project billing, planning and scheduling

• Integrated techniques like Earned value Analysis are extensively used


Earned Value Analysis• The system that allows the review of Cost and Schedule

performance together is Earned Value System

• The earned value system defines these terms as follows:• Budgeted work hours or $ to date represent what is

planned to be done. This is called Budgeted cost for work scheduled (BCWS) or Planned Value (PV)

• Earned work hours or $ to date represent what was done. This is called Budgeted cost for work performed (BCWP) or Earned Value (EV)

• Actual work hours or $ to date represent the cost incurred. This is called Actual cost of work performed (ACWP) or Actual cost ( AC)

Earned Value Analysis

Schedule Performance A comparison of what was done to what was planned. In other words,

work hours budgeted and earned. If the budgeted work hours are lessthan the earned work hours, it means more was done than planned,and the project is ahead of schedule. The reverse would place theproject behind schedule

1. Schedule variance (SV) = BCWP - BCWS2. Schedule performance Index (SPI) = BCWP/BCWS

Cost Performance A comparison of what was done to the cost incurred. To do this, earned

work hours are compared to actual work hours. If the cost incurredwere greater than what was done, the project has overrun its budget.

1. Cost variance (CV) = BCWP - ACWP2. Cost performance index (CPI) = BCWP/ACWP


Schedule Risk Analysis background • Management of most projects is schedule driven• Despite all the PM knowledge, sophisticated software

and experience people on board, project schedules more often than not overrun their targets

• Schedule slippages can result in change of critical paths which in turn can impact the planned execution strategy

• The reasons could be… Imposed unrealistic targets Completeness/Correctness of logical activity sequencing Improper use of constraints Inadequate resource loading Fundamentally the CPM technique itself

Evaluation of CPM technique• Activity durations are defined by single estimated values,

often viewed as most likely value, with out considering the uncertainty, which would mean activities may not go as planned but may take more or less time to complete

• CPM takes ASAP approach indicating optimistic result• Project completion date gets predicted and is regarded as a

certain, solid commitment against which a number of project performance targets are established

• The variability of activity durations enhanced by the complexities of their logical relationships often impacts major milestones or overall schedule. This impact may take place between two reporting periods or as small incremental changes over a longer period

Evaluation of CPM technique

Introduction to Schedule Risk Analysis• With probabilistic approach , unanswered questions are

addressed • Uncertain durations are defined by three point

estimates.(optimistic, likely and pessimistic)• Durations are expressed as PDF ( Probability distribution

functions)• The range of expected values are obtained by simulationBenefits of Schedule Risk Analysis: • Provides range of possible completion dates along with

corresponding probabilities• Provides the extent of possible overruns and the required

contingency• Identifies the areas of greatest risks• Provides inputs to risk response plans

Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis• Probabilistic approach of Schedule risk analysis does not

replace CPM schedule but takes it beyond its reach by addressing the uncertainties and improve them in taking informed decisions

• With this schedule can be called risk adjusted scheduleRisk inputs and activity duration ranges• Risk inputs into the model can be in a number of ways

depending upon the tool (@Risk or Primavera Risk Analysis) being used

• Assess the activity duration as a three point estimate • Choose /Determine appropriate PDF

Simulation, Reporting and Decision making• Simulation is performed by Primavera risk analysis, a Monte

Carlo based simulation technique. However, there are many contemporary soft wares based on Monte Carlo technique like @Risk for project

• As discussed, the results of the simulation are to be interpreted and analyzed to look for the answers to questions like Are the major milestones and other completion dates achievable or

feasible Whether the project completion date is most likely or not How much or how many days of contingency needed to bring the

completion date to an acceptable risk tolerance level

Deterministic Single Logic path schedule

• Above is a simple single logic path schedule with sequential activities in FS relationship.

• As the activity durations are fixed with no overlaps, the sum of activity durations is the project duration, with CPM predicting the finish date

Probabilistic Single Logic path schedule

• The introduction of probabilistic approach, with activity durations taking any value between the minimum and the maximum, gives a number of project finish dates

Triangular Probability Distribution Function

• Above graph shows the triangular distribution function ( minimum, Likely and Maximum) chosen for one activity ( A1010)

Conclusion• Control the system and not let the system control

you. No software or system can replace personal judgement and expertise.

• Education is relatively cheaper but experience is extremely costly

• With very aggressive project delivery requirements , even the experienced lot have to embrace technology

Soft wares• Primavera P6• Primavera Risk Analysis• @Risk for Excel

Books and Articles• Decision Analysis for the professional, Peter

Mcnamee

Documents

Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI ... · Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI Biohazards Solutions Innovators. Profile of Mohammed Rafiuddin ... Costvariance(CV)=BCWP-ACWP