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“Developing a model of crimes’ perceptions of people
in the United Kingdom”
Mohammad Shan-A-KhudaLeeds Metropolitan University
4th Annual Information Studies Postgraduate Symposium
Manchester Metropolitan University Date: 05th May, 2011
Outline of presentation
Purposes of project undertaken Categories of research aspects Gaps in previous research Sources of data Data analysis A simple statistical model A simple mathematical model
Purposes
To design appropriate Data collection and analysis techniques for peoples’ perception of crimes
Devise a model (mix of qualitative and quantitative) to establish the relationships among the factors of perception of crimes such as age, neighbourhood, crime categories in order to explore the gap between perception and reality; relationship between perception and fear of crimes
The 6Ps of research
ProductsPurpose Presentatio
nProcess
Participants
Paradigm
J. Oates, B. (2006) Researching Information Systems and Computing. London, SAGE Publications Ltd
Gaps in previous research
Figure 1.1 A simple spray can image from Water’s model Figure 1.2 Comparison with real crime(green)
with real perceptions (purple)Waters, T. (September, 2002) A Java Public Participation Gis Using a Spray Can Tool for an Investigation on the Perception of Crime in Leeds. Leeds, Department of Geograhpy. University of Leeds.
Shan-a-Khuda, M. (September 2005) A Qualitative and Quantitative Model of Crime and Crime Perceptions. Leeds, School of Computing. University of Leeds.
loss of information through the computational process
Unconvincing tackling of the issues of continuation of research on perception of crimes in the changing aspects of social circumstances
Data collection and Analysis Nature of data
British Crime Survey, April, 2007-March, 2008
Mix of qualitative and quantitative
Experience of crime within 12 months prior to interview
42 Police Force Areas (PFA) of England and Wales
Adults 16 over (focus on Representative individual) in Private House Holds
Sample size: 46, 983 including both victim and non victim
Unaffected by the changes in levels of reporting to the police, and police recording practices
Steps in data analysis Determining the contributing variables of
perception of crimes
Evidencing the relationships among the variables through proper quantitative
and qualitative analysis such as statistical modelling, data triangulation.
Devise a mathematical model Confirming the results of mathematical model
through a qualitative model
Variable Name Description Type
serial Serial number (6 Digits) Numeric and Scale
age Age of the respondent 1 in the household Numeric and Scale
burgreg How likely it will be burgled in the next year
1= “Very likely” 2= “Fairly likely” 3= “Fairly unlikely” 4= “Very unlikely”8= “Refused” 9 = “Don’t know”
Numeric and Scale
sprob How likely is it people in neighbourhood participate in an organization to help solve a community problem
1= “Very likely” 2= “Likely” 3= “Unlikely” 4= “Very unlikely”
Numeric and Scale
educint Do you have any qualifications
1= “Yes” 2= “No”8= “Refused” 9= “Don’t know”
Numeric and Scale
educat2Highest Qualification
1 = “Higher Degree, etc.” 2= “First Degree, etc.” 3= “Diplomas, etc. “ 4= “A/ AS level, etc.”
5= “Trade Apprenticeships” 6= “O-level / GCSE Grades A-C” 7= “O- level / GCSE Grades D-G” 8= Others qualifications(Including overseas)
98= “Refused” 99= “Don’t know”
Numeric and Scale
Graph showing relationship between neighbourhood cohesion and likelihood of burgled in the next year
Graph showing relationship between an individual’s highest qualification and likelihood of burgled in the next year
A Generalized Linear Model
Outline of proposed mathematical model
Dependent and Independent variables There are two different aspects:
i. “locality reference” and
ii. “perceived crime rate” “locality reference” will be measured through two different independent variables:
a. ‘home’: It covers the aspects of perception of crimes where people see the evidence of crime activities around the place where he or she lives in.
b. ‘remote’: It covers peoples’ perceptions about outside of their home. This sort of perception is formed through the reading newspapers, chatting with other people, watching films,etc.
Parameters estimation
Outline of proposed mathematical model (Parameters continued)
The second dependent variable “rate of perceived crime” will be measured through four different qualitative measurements:
a. “perceived vehicle crime rate”b. “perceived antisocial behaviour occurrences”c. “perceived occurrences of burglary”d. “perceived occurrences of drug and gang crime”
Some of the independent variables are the index asking the respondents what area code they are living in, how long they are living for, how they think the extent “people driving the above the speed limit”, “teenagers hanging around on the streets”, “people using or dealing drugs”, “Homes being broken into and property stolen” and “How many times they have felt fearful”.
Demographic variables
The demographic variables are age, gender, ethnicity and area code.
Outline of proposed mathematical model
i. x = X: {x1,x2,x3,x4}
where X=demographic variable and x1= Age; x2 = Gender; x3 =Ethnicity and x4 = area code ...............................................( i ) ii.
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workandlivetheywhereHOMEaroundsperceptionh
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ratecrimevehicleperceivedCandCCCCandratecrimeperceivedCwhere
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