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Our intuition and common sense
Hindsight Bias we tend to believe, after learning an
outcome, that we would have foreseen it the “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon
Overconfidence we tend to think that we know more than
we do
Perceiving order in random events Our eagerness to make sense of the
world
We overestimate our own intuition
Thinking Critically With Psychological Science
To believe with certainty, we must begin by doubting
Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions examines assumptions identifies hidden values evaluates evidence assesses conclusions
The Scientific Method
The Process of Research Observing a phenomenon Formulating an idea Testing an idea Generalizing or refining the idea
The Scientific Method Formulating an idea
Initial phase of research, in which observations, beliefs, information, and general knowledge lead to a new idea or a different way of thinking about some phenomenon
Testing an idea Organizing countless observations into a theory Formulating testable predictions: hypotheses Testing the hypotheses
Using operational definitions of concepts Generalizing or refining the idea
The Scientific Method
Theory an explanation that integrates principles and
organizes and predicts behavior or events. Theory explains the underlying reason of the observed
phenomenon Produce hypotheses
Hypothesis a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory.
Testing hypotheses using operational definitions Operational Definition
a statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables
Also enables other researchers to replicate example-
intelligence may be operationally defined as the score obtained from the intelligence test measures
Psychological well-being can be operationally defined as high level of life satisfaction and low depression.
Academic success can be operationally defined as GPA.
The Scientific Method
Replication repeating the essence of a research study
to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances
usually with different participants in different situations
the research findings can be generalizable to other samples/situations.
Methods of psychology
1. Description (to describe) 2. Correlation (to predict) 3. Experimentation (to understand)
Methods of psychology
1. To describe human and animal behavior and mental processes, psychologists conduct:
• Case studies• Surveys• Observations (naturalistic / lab)
DescriptionCase Study
observation technique in which on individual (or few incidences) are studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principals Studies of brain damaged individuals Piaget
Suggest hypotheses for further studies
Problems?? May be unrepresentative
DescriptionSurvey
Looks at many cases with less depth. Ask people to report thier behaviors or
opinions.
Market surveys Koç University student satisfaction survey
Problems??
Who do we survey? Usually question a representative, random
sample of people seleced from a population. Population
all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study
Random Sample a sample that fairly represents a population
because each member has an equal chance of inclusion
How do we ask questions?If there is a serious fuel
shortage this winter, do you think there should be a law requiring people to lower the heat in their homes, or do you oppose such a law?
Should be 39.4 %
Oppose 60.6 %
If there is a serious fuel shortage this winter, do you think there should be a law requiring people to lower the heat in their homes, or do you oppose such a law because it would be too difficult to enforce?
Should be 26.0 %
Oppose 74.0 %
Description
Naturalistic Observation observing and recording behavior in naturally
occurring situations (or in more controlled environments) without trying to manipulate and control the situation
Dating behaviors of Koç University students?
Problems?
Methods of psychology
2. To predict human and animal behavior and mental processes, psychologists conduct - Correlational studies: the examination of the
quantitative relationships between two or more variables
how does one behavior relate to the occurrence of another behavior?
if we know one behavior’s pattern can we then, in turn, predict the pattern of occurrence of another behavior?
Variable Defined Any characteristic or attribute that varies in
amount and kind Gender Success Weight, Height Self-esteem Reaction time in a learning experiment Intelligence Achievement motivation
Correlation Correlation Coefficient
a statistical measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus how well either factor predicts the other
Correlation coefficient
Indicates directionof relationship
(positive or negative)
Indicates strengthof relationship(0.00 to 1.00)
r = +.37