Module 2 Causal loop modelling

CAUSAL LOOP MODELLING

Professor Ockie Bosch

Dr Nam Nguyen

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)

Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)

Behavior Over Time (BOT)

Systems Archetypes (SA)

Sensitivity Model (Basis of Ecopolicy)

Viable System Model

Stock and Flow Diagrams

Systems Dynamic Models and more…

Systems Thinking Tools

© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Climate Change

Carbon Emission

Water Shortage

Land Use

Environment

Biodiversity

Energy Crisis

Food Crisis

Economic Growth

Globalisation

Sustainability

Social Dislocation

Poverty

Human Health

Animal Health

Food Safety

Current Issues in the Media


These different issues can not be regarded as single entities that can be dealt with in isolation from each other

What are the relationships/interactions between these issues/variables?


Interconnected?


The Environment Loop


The Environment Loop


Population Loop Added


Agriculture Loop Added


Biofuel Loop Added

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)


AN INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODEL

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) provide:

‘… a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots’.

Peter Senge (2006)


Definition

Variable is a condition, state, action, or decision which can influence, and can be influenced by, other conditions, states, actions, etc.

A variable can be quantitative (e.g., number of employees, kilograms of production, business profit, etc.) or it can be qualitative (e.g., values, motivation, reputation, feelings, respect, etc. ).


Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) -Variable (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

• An arrow indicates a causal relationship or change in the state of two variables.

Bank balance

Interest

• S (or +) indicates change in the Same direction.

• O (or -) indicates change in the Opposite direction.


Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) -

Arrow (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

Interest

Bank balance

S (+)

Expenditure

O (-)


Higher Interest

Lower Interest

Higher Bank balance

Higher Expenditure

Higher Savings

Lower Savings

Lower Expenditure

Lower Bank balance

}

}

S (or +)

O (or -)


How to decide on the sign?

Feedback is a process in which outputs from a system affect the inputs

Feedback loops arise when a sequence of interactions form a closed loop:

A-B-C-A:

C

B

A


Feedback (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

Reinforcing Loop (R)

Positive feedback

The R-loop represents growing or declining actions

Balancing Loop (B)

Negative feedback (counteracting)

The B-loop seeks stability or return to control, or

aims for a specific target

+

-


Loop Types (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

InterestSavings

Balance

S

S

R

Virtuous CycleTime

Savings

Balance


Example of a Reinforcing Loop (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

Hiding Errors /

Mistakes

Incidence of Poor

Quality

Management

Punitive Action

Fear of Blame /

Punishment

R

S

S

S

S

Quality

Time

Vicious Cycle


“Quality Problem” - A Vicious Cycle (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

Nguyen & Bosch (2013). Using Systems Thinking to Identify Leverage Points for Sustainability. Systems

Research & Behavioral Sciences, Vol.30, No.2, pp 104-115.© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Example of Balancing Loops

1. Using logic or intuition to identify the nature of the loop: growing or declining action (R), counteracting process (B).

2. Tracing the loop variable by variable: start and end with the same verb (R), with the opposite verb (B).

3. Counting the number of ‘O’ (or ‘-’ sign) in the loop: zero or even number (R), odd number (B).


Differentiating between a ‘R’ and B’ (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

Rule 1: Know your boundaries

Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting

Rule 3: Ask ‘What does this drive?’ & ‘What is this

driven by?’

Rule 4: Use nouns, not verbs

Rule 5: Don’t use terms such as ‘increase in’ or

‘decrease in’

Rule 6: Don’t be afraid of unusual items

Rule 7: Do the ‘s’ and ‘o’ as you go along

Rule 8: A good diagram must be recognised as real

Rule 9: Don’t ‘fall in love’ with your diagram

Rule 10: No diagram ever ‘finished’© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Rules for drawing CLDs (adapted from Sherwood, 2002)

A dynamic systems model of the Afghanistan conflict(The New York Times, April 26, 2010, retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?_r=1) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

But, this might be too much!

o Services

o Infrastructure

o Waste*******

o Hotels , Restaurants*****

o Attraction of CB Island

o Access to markets

o Investment in agriculture

o Information and communication

o Misuse of NR******

o Health

o New construction

o Tourism pollution*******

o Agricultural pollution

o Available underground water******

o Number of tourists

o Other pollution sources

o Use of underground water

o Tourism revenue*******

o NR conservation*******

o Livelihood of Commoner

o Life expectancy

o Governance structures***

o Policies

o Poverty*******

o Educated population

o Lack of Integrated Planning******

o NGOs

o People's awareness

o Social evils/crime

o Cultural values

o Population*******

o Immigration

o GDP per capita

o Tourism Development******

Waste

Water

Poverty

Tourism


Causal Loop ModelingStep1. Gathering mental models to identify variables for the sustainable

development of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Number of tourists

Tourism revenue

Hotels , Restaurants

Tourism DevelopmentWaste

Tourism pollution

Attraction of CB Island

Use of underground water

Available underground water

BiodiversityLivelihood of Commoner

Misuse of NR

NR conservationGDP per capita

Agriculture revenue

Investment in agriculture

Information and communication

Access to market

Poverty

Health

Population

Educated population

Life expectancy

Governance structure

Other income Sources

Social evils/crimeNGOs

Infrastructure

Services

Lack of Integrated Planning

PoliciesStudent population

Cultural values

Agricultural pollution

People's awareness

Immigration

Food safety

New construction

Other pollution sources

Step 2: Move variables around until clear themes are appearing


Step 3: Systemic Structure (of CAT BA Biosphere) after variables have been linked with arrows

Attraction of

CB island

Number of

tourists

Service quality

Biodiversity

Tourism

pollution

Use of

underground

water

Available

underground

waterWaste

Tourism

revenue

Hotels and

Restaurants

Agriculture

pollution

Infrastructure

Other pollution

sources

New construction

Agriculture

revenue

Investment in

agriculture

Access to

market

Information and

communication

GDP per

capita

Livelihood of

Commoner

Misuse of

NRNR

conservation

Food

safetyHealth

Life expectancyImmigration

PopulationStudent

population

Educated

population

Poverty

Cultural

values

Social

issues

People’s

awareness

Tourism

development

Lack of Integrated planning

NGOs Governanc

e structure

Policies


Develop a CLD around an area of your own interest:

1. For Educational Purposes: You can use Vensim software (Download from: http://vensim.com/download/ (Click on Free Download)

2. In the Think2Impact Package: You can draw links between variables directly on the “Whiteboard” in the section on Developing a Systems Model (Vensim not required)


PRACTICAL EXERCISE to draw CLDs

http://vensim.com/download/

Documents

Module 2 Causal loop modelling