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1CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Discussion of model use by governments, IFOs, emergency management organizations, and others for disaster risk financing, risk management, and risk reduction, as well as key considerations for model improvement and adoption.Session Lead:Dr. Akshay GuptaSVP and Director, Catastrophe Risk EngineeringAIR Worldwide
Panelists
Models As The Universal Currency For Disaster Risk Financing And Management
Dr. Olivier MahulProgram Manager, DRF & Insurance ProgramWorld Bank Group
Ivo MenzingerHead of Global Partnerships, Asia-PacificSwiss Re
Dr. Milan SimicSVP and Managing Director of Int’l OperationsAIR Worldwide
Dr. Eugene GurenkoSenior Insurance OfficerWorld Bank Group
Andrew EddyPresident and CEOAthena Global
Simon YoungLead Advisor – African Risk CapacityFormer CEO of Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd.
2CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Discussion of model use by governments, IFOs, emergency management organizations, and others for disaster risk financing, risk management, and risk reduction, as well as key considerations for model improvement and adoption.Session Lead:Dr. Akshay GuptaSVP and Director, Catastrophe Risk EngineeringAIR Worldwide
Panelists
Models As The Universal Currency For Disaster Risk Financing And Management
Dr. Olivier MahulProgram Manager, DRF & Insurance ProgramWorld Bank Group
Ivo MenzingerHead of Global Partnerships, Asia-PacificSwiss Re
Dr. Milan SimicSVP and Managing Director of Int’l OperationsAIR Worldwide
Dr. Eugene GurenkoSenior Insurance OfficerWorld Bank Group
Andrew EddyPresident and CEOAthena Global
Simon YoungLead Advisor – African Risk CapacityFormer CEO of Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd.
3CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Discussion of model use by governments, IFOs, emergency management organizations, and others for disaster risk financing, risk management, and risk reduction, as well as key considerations for model improvement and adoption.Session Lead:Dr. Akshay GuptaSVP and Director, Catastrophe Risk EngineeringAIR Worldwide
Panelists
Models As The Universal Currency For Disaster Risk Financing And Management
Dr. Olivier MahulProgram Manager, DRF & Insurance ProgramWorld Bank Group
Ivo MenzingerHead of Global Partnerships, Asia-PacificSwiss Re
Dr. Milan SimicSVP and Managing Director of Int’l OperationsAIR Worldwide
Dr. Eugene GurenkoSenior Insurance OfficerWorld Bank Group
Andrew EddyPresident and CEOAthena Global
Simon YoungLead Advisor – African Risk CapacityFormer CEO of Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd.
4CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Catastrophe Modeling Framework
0 0.5 1 1.5
MD
R
Sa (0.3s)
Base Damage FunctionsConcreteMasonry
5CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Catastrophe Modeling Framework
0 0.5 1 1.5
MD
R
Sa (0.3s)
Base Damage FunctionsConcreteMasonry
6CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Catastrophe Modeling Framework
0 0.5 1 1.5
MD
R
Sa (0.3s)
Base Damage FunctionsConcreteMasonry
7CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Modeled Accumulated Precipitation Modeled Maximum Winds
Model Usage in Disaster Risk FinancingTropical Cyclone Ian (Jan 2014)
Residential Buildings -66%
Crops - 20%
Public Buildings andInfrastructure - 9%
Commercial, Industrialand Other Buildings - 5%
Total Modeled Ground-Up Mean Loss per Division
8CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Modeled Accumulated Precipitation Modeled Maximum Winds
Model Usage in Disaster Risk FinancingTropical Cyclone Ian (Jan 2014)
Residential Buildings -66%
Crops - 20%
Public Buildings andInfrastructure - 9%
Commercial, Industrialand Other Buildings - 5%
Total Modeled Ground-Up Mean Loss per Division
9CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Modeled Accumulated Precipitation Modeled Maximum Winds
Model Usage in Disaster Risk FinancingTropical Cyclone Ian (Jan 2014)
Residential Buildings -66%
Crops - 20%
Public Buildings andInfrastructure - 9%
Commercial, Industrialand Other Buildings - 5%
Total Modeled Ground-Up Mean Loss per Division
10CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Modeled Accumulated Precipitation Modeled Maximum Winds
Model Usage in Disaster Risk FinancingTropical Cyclone Ian (Jan 2014)
Residential Buildings -66%
Crops - 20%
Public Buildings andInfrastructure - 9%
Commercial, Industrialand Other Buildings - 5%
Total Modeled Ground-Up Mean Loss per Division
11CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Facilitate growth of catastrophe risk insurance markets through the development of new models for new regions.
Model Usage in Disaster Risk Management
12CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Facilitate growth of catastrophe risk insurance markets through the development of new models for new regions.
Model Usage in Disaster Risk Management
13CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk Reduction
Without Mitigation
With Mitigation
Benefit of Mitigation
Elem
enta
ry S
choo
l
Hig
h Sc
hool
As-Is
Improved
Earthquake Loss to School Buildings
14CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk Reduction
Without Mitigation
With Mitigation
Benefit of Mitigation
Elem
enta
ry S
choo
l
Hig
h Sc
hool
As-Is
Improved
Earthquake Loss to School Buildings
15CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Disaster Risk Reduction
Manhattan – Sandy 2012
16CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Disaster Risk Reduction
Manhattan – Sandy 2012
17CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk ReductionPlan to Protect Lower Manhattan, New York, USA
The Big U - Rebuild By Design Winner
For every $1 of Sandy Losses Ground Up Loss Insured Loss
Sandy Losses $1.00 $1.00
The Big U Mitigation Losses $0.48 $0.41
18CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk ReductionPlan to Protect Lower Manhattan, New York, USA
The Big U - Rebuild By Design Winner
For every $1 of Sandy Losses Ground Up Loss Insured Loss
Sandy Losses $1.00 $1.00
The Big U Mitigation Losses $0.48 $0.41
19CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk ReductionPlan to Protect Lower Manhattan, New York, USA
The Big U - Rebuild By Design Winner
For every $1 of Sandy Losses Ground Up Loss Insured Loss
Sandy Losses $1.00 $1.00
The Big U Mitigation Losses $0.48 $0.41
20CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
Model Usage in Disaster Risk ReductionPlan to Protect Lower Manhattan, New York, USA
The Big U - Rebuild By Design Winner
For every $1 of Sandy Losses Ground Up Loss Insured Loss
Sandy Losses $1.00 $1.00
The Big U Mitigation Losses $0.48 $0.41
