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Modelling aquatic ecosystem services related to global environmental change by a global modelling framework

Jan H. Janse (jan.janse@pbl.nl)

Arthur Beusen (PBL) Anne van Dam (UNESCO-IHE) Wolf Mooij (NIOO) Eline Boelee (WaterHealth) Marcel Kok (PBL) Antoine le Gal (PBL/AgroParisTech) et al.

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Outline 1. Overview of model framework 2. Water topics 3. Example results 4. Scenario analysis (Rio+20/CBD): Trend + 3 pathways

JH Janse

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IMAGE-GLOBIO: objective

GLOBAL MODEL, linking the main socio-economic factors to environmental changes, biodiversity/ecosystem services and human wellbeing

Focus on global scale and trends

Spatially explicit (30 or 5 arc minutes grid)

Target policy level = UNEP, CBD, OECD, Min. of Foreign Affairs, IPBES, EU, &

May provide the ‘global context’ for REGIONAL scale models

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Scenario drivers

(economy, population, technology, policies)

Socio-Econ system

Agriculture & land use

Energy supply & demand

Live-stock

Forest

manageme

nt

Agricult.

systems

Earth System

Land

Nutrient Balances

Atmosphere-Ocean

Atmospheric

composition & climate

model

Impacts

Land Degra-

dation

Flood Risks

Biodiversity

(terr. + aquatic)

Ecosyst.

Goods &

Services

Policy

Response

Climate

Human

Development

Agricultural economy and forestry

Land Cover and Use Emissions

Energy supply

Hydrolog. Cycle Carbon Cycle

Crop & Grass Growth Natural vegetation

Land & Biodiv

Air pollution &

Energy

Water Stress Agricult.

Impacts

Climate

Impacts

Energy conversion Energy demand

Water Quality

IMAGE-GLOBIO model framework

JH Janse

Topics and options

A. Global trends: population, food demand, energy demand

=> land use, water use

B. Behavioural trends: dietary options, energy mix => land use, water use

C. Resource efficiency, climate change mitigation

D. Sustainable catchment management

Impacts: water shortages, water quality, algal blooms, biodiversity and ecosystem services, flood risk, &

Synergies and trade-offs of options

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Central: Catchment approach, hydrological cycle

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

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AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: location Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD)

JH Janse

Water(y) outputs:

a. Implemented:

b. a. Hydrology and flow; river discharge; flood risks; wetland areas =>PCR-GLOBWB (UU)

b. Soil moisture, irrigation, water stress => LPJ (PIK)

a. c. Water temperature =>PCR-GLOBWB (UU)

b. d. Water quality (N and P), retention => GNM

c. e. Algal blooms => GLOBIO-Aqua/PCLake

d. f. Biodiversity intactness => GLOBIO-Aqua

e. Planned: a. g. Other ecosystem services of lakes and wetlands: C

sequestration; fish; cultural (p.m.)

f. h. Other biodiversity indicators; linking biodiversity and processes

JH Janse, Feb. 2015

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Dams

and river

regulation

Irrigation

(Agricultural)

eutrophication

Overfishing

Hydraulic

infrastructure

Climate change

Deforestation

Wetland conversion

Urban pollution

(point sources)

(modified after Ratner et al, 2004; in MEA), 2005

Invasive species

Drivers of aquatic biodiversity change in catchments

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Dams and

water use Climate (temp.,rain) Land use

Water quality

(N, P)

GlobalNutrientModel

Biodiv.of

RIVERS

Biodiv.of

WETLANDS

Biodiv. of

LAKES

Water flow Water temp.

Empirical biodiv. relations (GLOBIO)

GLWD map

IMAGE

water network

(accumulation

in catchment)

lake depths

Wetland

conversion

GLOBIO-Aquatic model chain

Algal blooms

in LAKES

GLOBIO-Aquatic model chain (v.1, 2011)

Hydrological models

Weighted-averaged aquatic biodiversity

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-5.5 14.5

45.5

61.5

Adjusted River basins, based on UNHGRDC

11 Vorosmarty et al (2000)

JH Janse, 2014

Hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, linked to GLWD

Mm3/year

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

> 500

Annual accumulated total runoff, EUROMOD, prog accueuro, ldd Storms

Wetland area: losses => implications for biodiversity, ecosystem services, LU planning

Potential wetland map (from PCR-GLOBWB)

Mm3/year

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

> 500

Annual accumulated total runoff, EUROMOD, prog accueuro, ldd Storms

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Land use and nutrient model

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Source apportionment: dominant N/P source in surface water by grid cell

Current and potential hydropower stations

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Potential

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Empirical relations for biodiversity intactness (GLOBIO-aqua)

0,0

1,0

0,001 0,01 0,1 1

MS

A

Total Phosporus [mg/l]

Eutrophication and biodiversity

intactness in lakes

Shallow lakes Deep lakes Shallow lakes Deep lakes

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MSA-aquatic: 2000

Combined results: MSA-aquatic

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MSA-aquatic: Baseline 2050

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Difference 2000 -> 2050

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GLOBIO: MSA-terrestrial

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Some output for LAKES: Biodiversity intactness (MSA); Harmful algal blooms

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For LAKES, low MSA correlates with high cyanobacteria

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Global scenario analysis

Some recent assessments with IMAGE-GLOBIO

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2010 (COP CBD, Nagoya)

OECD-EO, 2012 2012 (Rio Conference)

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CBD, 2014

Trend scenario: future water challenges

Water shortages

Deteriorating water quality (urban and agriculture)

Increase in flood risks

Biodiversity decline

Hydropower

People living with water shortage

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Rost et al. “Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land

management” (Adv. Geosciences 2008)

Period [1991-2000]

Actual vs natural vegetation

% changes in water fluxes:

Decrease in transpiration

Increase in river discharges

(Rost et al. 2008)

Human alteration of the water cycle

Biodiversity decline in the Trend scenario, and main drivers

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Global average MSA loss and contribution of drivers

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Pathways to achieve the 2050 targets

Main assumption

Global

Technology

Focus on large-scale technologically optimal solutions:

intensive agriculture and a high level of international

coordination

Decentralized

Solutions

Focus on decentralized solutions: local energy production;

agriculture that is interwoven with natural corridors and

national policies that regulate equitable access to food

Consumption

Change

Focus on changes in human consumption patterns:

limiting meat intake per capita; reduce waste in the

agricultural production chain; less energy-intensive

lifestyle

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Three scenarios for 2050 that meet biodiversity objectives

..in strong synergy with meeting other development goals (SDGs)

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20

40

60

80

Current Trend Rio+20

Green House Gas Emissions Gt CO2 equivalent per year

2050

Trend 2050

Rio+20

Current

Climate change

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Key issues for maintaining biodiversity

Transition production-consumption chain; e.g. for protein-food

Forest protection for climate (in stead of biofuels)

Ecosystem protection and ecological network

Green development mechanism

Combination of measures neceassary

Fundamental changes needed; pathways are not being followed

JH Janse

References

Janse, J.H. et al. (2015). GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems. Environmental Science and Policy 48: 99-114.

Kuiper, J.J., et al. (2014). The impact of river regulation on the biodiversity intactness of floodplain wetlands. Wetlands Ecology and Management 22, 647-658

Stehfest, E. et al. (2014). Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Van Beek, L.P.H. et al. (2011). Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability. Water Resourc. Res. 47

OECD (2012) OED Environmental Outlook to 2050

PBL (2014) How sectors can contribute to sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity. CBD Techn. Series 79.

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Thank you for your attention! Jan.Janse@pbl.nl

JH Janse