Evidence Based Decisions for UK Landscapes Programme

Modelling for Coastal and Inland waters

Icarus Allen

Sea

^

The Socio –Ecological System

Coral reefs

Other interesting issues: Population Security Land tenure

Well-being impacts

Climate Change

Socio-ecological system

Urban areas

Forestry Agriculture Mining Coastal development Tourism

Coastal Community Activities Fishers (men and women) Traders Tourist activities (guides etc.) Farming SMEs Crafts Consumers

Resilience strategies Ecological Social

Business

© Reef Conservation

Ecosystem services

The landscape: questions

climate

carbon sequestration

deoxygenation

acidification

bioremediation

eutrophication

coastal erosion prevention

food provision

fisheries

aquaculture

Plankton Functional Types

(variable) stoichiometry

C, N, P, Si, Fe

structured populations

size vs. abundance

mammals & birds

leisure, recreation

bathing water quality

jellyfish, harmful algae

charismatic species

model ingredients

macrophytes, seagrasses

fish & fisheries

benthic fauna

carbonate chemistry

oxygen, redox chemistry

IBMs

ecolo

gy

bio

geochem

istry

questions

pelagic & benthic life stages

Model Processes

The landscape: regions of interest

world ocean

lagoons

estuaries

shelf seas

ocean basins

coastal ocean models

GETM, NEMO-shelf…

global circulation models

NEMO, MOM, …

unstructured grid models

FVCOM, SCHISM, …

scale

re

solu

tion

model of choice domain

Model Scales

River Catchment Models

e.g HYDRO JULES, …

rivers

Particle Tracking

Marine Physics

Aquaculture

Fisheries Biogeochemical / Ecosystem

Local

Regional

Global

More details at: http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Home

Coupler

Marine System Modelling:

Consider the complexities of the marine system to optimise management: • Marine Ecology • Chemistry • Physics

• Atmospheric

drivers • Terrestrial

interactions • Anthropogenic

pressures

observations

Data Assimilation

Physical modelling tools

The Finite Volume Community Ocean

Model (FVCOM)

Horizontal unstructured model grid

allows for a close fit to complex

coastlines and variable resolution.

Simulations with SST assimilation

and high res Atmospheric fields

Provides velocity & diffusivity fields

at hourly or half-hourly intervals.

PyLag

A particle tracking model written in

Python/Cython.

2- or 3-D advection.

A selection of random displacement

models.

Impacts of offshore wind farms: Far field effects

• Use unstructured grid model (FVCOM) to focus on the eastern

Irish Sea

• Explicitly include turbines in large model domain

• Assess impacts at local and shelf scale

• Entrainment of deep waters into

upper layer and vice versa

• Extends 5m below stratified region

and to surface from below

• Upward vertical flow on

downstream side of the monopile

• Mostly decrease in stratification of

5-15% over approximately 250km2

Cazenave et al. 2016 Prog in Phys Ocean

Hetero- trophs

Micro-

Phytoplankton

Consumers

Diatoms

NO3

PO4

NH4

Si

Micro

Aerobic Bacteria

Pelagic

Benthic

pCO2

Carbonate System

Anaerobic Bacteria

Meso-

CO2

TA

Inorganics

Nano

Bacteria

NO3

PO4

NH4

Si Meio-

benthos Deposit Feeders

Organics

Zoobenthos

Microbes

Microbes

Pico

Nutrients O2

Fe

TA

Atmosphere

Suspension Feeders

pH Ω

pH Ω

O2

O2

DIC

DIC

0

Refrac -tory Degradable

DOM

O2

Refrac -tory

DOM

POM

Large Small

DOM

POM

Semi- Labile

Labile

Med

Buried

H2CO3

HCO3-

CO32-

H2CO3

HCO3-

CO32-

Coastal Ecosystem Modelling

Putting it back together: the pelagic ecosystem

passive particle primary producer

predator with variable stoichiometry

predator with fixed stoichiometry

calcium carbonate

oxygen

carbonate system bacteria

Butenschön, and 17 others. (2015) ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the

lower trophic levels, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 7063-7187, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-7063-2015.

Predicting change • Climate response • Ocean acidification • Deoxygenation • Greenhouse gases

Energy • Carbon Capture & Storage • Marine renewables

Environmental health • Eutrophication • Microplastics • Harmful Algae Blooms • Good environmental status

Food • Aquaculture capacity • Fisheries • Trawling impacts

Particle tracking: Microplastics, pathogens etc.

Vulnerability to Deoxygenation

Productivity under climate scenarios

Example Capabilities

More details at: http://www.pml.ac.uk/Modelling/Home

• 2013: UK government designated 28 MCZs.

Marine Conservation Zones .

Ap

ply

Results

Indicators sets can be tailored to case study conditions

For many indicators suitable data are lacking

Climate change will affect indicator ability to detect other sources of change

Cultural ES indicator selection challenging

Indicators of ecosystem functions, services and benefits needed

Reflect quantity and quality of ES

What are potential data sources?

How to measure indicator?

Indicator selection Indicators support

monitoring in context of

EU’s Habitats Directive,

the Biodiversity

Directive and can

contribute to work of

Intergovernmental

Platform on Biodiversity

and ecosystem services

(IPBES)

A

Aʹ

UK parent model with

FVCOM-ERSEM

Nested high

resolution local area

(30m-2km)

Environmental resources: Aquaculture

M. edulis

© R. Zenz, CC3.0

C. gigas

© D. Mannion, CC3.0

T. philippinarum

© wikimedia, CC3.0

P. maximus

© FAO

Locate: Land Ocean Carbon Transfer

• The largest organic carbon

reserves in Europe are in the

soil of North Scotland and the

largest peat areas are in Wales

and Southwest England

• Decreasing levels of acidifying

air pollution has led to a 60%

increase in dissolved organic

carbon levels of rivers over 25

years, affecting riverine carbon

losses and drinking water

supplies

• Restoring some elements of our

carbon reserves could cost up

to £570 million over the next 40

years

• LOCATE is sampling one third

of the rivers that drain the UK

Challenges: Land Coastal Interface.

Aim: to accelerate the pull through and integration of national-scale high resolution environmental

prediction capabilities to useful science and service.

UK Environmental Prediction Initiative Project

JWPRC

Underpinning observations

Sampling on the River Dart

Observing Systems

Satellite Socio-

Economic

Satellites

Model

Improved estimates and

confidence on marine

biogeochemical indicators

of health and productivity

Forecast system

Autonomous Vehicles

Guidance System

Combining Autonomous observations and Models

for Predicting and Understanding Shelf seas –

CAMPUS

Challenges: Improved Monitoring

Challenges: Data assimilation

Application of Data Assimilation

to improve forecast of

deoxygenation events

Observations

Re

an

aly

sis

Unbiased median absolute error Six more variables…

pCO2

NO3: Nitrate

Temperature

O2

Challenges: Uncertainty and Skill Assessment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

passive Fasham ERGOM ERSEM

run

tim

e r

ela

tive

to

ph

ysic

s-o

nly

conservation checks

range checks

sources

vertical movement (sinking/floating)

open boundaries (BCOND)

vertical diffusion (VDIF)

advection smoother (FCT)

advection (ADV)

physics

Performance

BGC

FABM

pelagic state

variables

benthic state

variables

passive 1 0

Fasham 7 0

ERGOM 10 2

ERSEM 50 36

Profiling: Intel Fortran compiler 14.0, LIMITED_2;GCY1;MPDATA;FABM;WET_DRY;MULTIPROCESSOR;PROJ, serial run

Challenges: Computational Cost

Mizer, trait-based community size-spectrum ecological

model

Challenges: Ecological, economic and social impacts

Anthropogenic intervention (decrease river nutrients by 30%)

results in a decrease of fish biomass

Thank you