MODELKEY DSS as supporting tool for River Basin …€¦ · Basin Management Plan definition: results from application to Elbe and Danube Elena Semenzin1, Stefania Gottardo1,2,Peter

MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by

http://www.modelkey.org

MODELKEY DSS as supporting tool for River Basin Management Plan definition: results

from application to Elbe and Danube

Elena Semenzin1, Stefania Gottardo1,2, Peter von der Ohe3, Jonathan

Rizzi1,2, Alex Zabeo1, Andrea Critto2, Antonio Marcomini1,2

1Consorzio Venezia Ricerche, Via della Libertà 5-12, 30175 Marghera-Venezia, Italy2Department of Environmental Sciences, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Italy

3Helmholtz Centre For Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany



• Legislative context: the Water Framework Directive (WFD)

• Supporting the WFD complexity: problems and solutions

• Decision Support System: definitions• The MODELKEY DSS• Results from Danube and Elbe river basins

OutlineOutline



A common legislative framework …

for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in Europe

to be applied to all categories of water bodies, i.e.- surface inland waters (both rivers and lakes)- surface coastal and transitional waters- groundwater ( Daughter Directive)

“ DIRECTIVE 2000/60/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL

of 23 October 2000

establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy ”

Legislative context: WFDLegislative context: WFD



ASSESSMENT

MONITORING

MANAGEMENT

WFD: timetableWFD: timetable



Such a complexity arising from WFD implementation is a challenge for water managers:

- A large variety of data at different spatial and temporal scales.

- Environmental and socio-economic perspectives.

- Participation of all interested parties in decision making.

Decision Support Systems (DSS)computerized systems that help decision makers in structuring and

evaluating decisions by providing easy-to-use and integrated tools for information elaboration and displaying.

(Shim et al., 2002; Loucks, 1995; Watkins and McKinney, 1995)

Problem & solutionProblem & solution



What is a DSS? A computerized tool that allows to…

…generate, evaluate and making choices of alternatives to solve a complex decision problem (e.g. the assessment of river basin quality);

…take into account different information and data (i.e. environmental, socio-economic) in an integrated framework;

…include opinions and perceptions of stakeholders or decision-makers in the evaluation;

…automate the decision making process, making it flexible, repeatable, changeable, traceable and transparent.

Decision Support SystemDecision Support System



How does it work? A simple example:

1. I have a question/problem

2. I insert my data, based on DSS suggestions and guiding structure

3. The included models are run and provide me with some answers/options

4. I can discuss the results

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Index value

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Comparison of scenarios by different indexes

Socio-economicindexTechnologicindexRisk index

Env. ImpactindexCost

Duration




How does it look like? An example

Textualguidelines

Visualizationmaps

Results by graphs

Bottoms for navigation

Detailedresults

EasyInterface




MODELs for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental KEYpollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity

case studiesElbe, Scheldt, llobregat

KEYTOX

BA

SIN

SITE

DECIS

EFFECT

EXPO

TRAIN

sub-projects

2005 - 201026 partners from 14 countries

Coordination: UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

6 sub-projects3 case studies

Project N. 511237-GOCE

MODELKEY projectMODELKEY project



• It combines several risk-based assessment tools and methodologies into 3 modules.

• It is a generic model characterized by an open and flexible configuration enabling the integration of external assessment tools (i.e. indicators, models and databases).

• It is implemented into an open source GIS environment (uDig: user-friendly, free of charge, offering multilanguage facilities).

• It provides best practices and links to other relevant sources of information.

MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSSMAIN FEATURES



New data collection and evaluation

Quality Status Index

Hot-spots

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

monitoring

WOE

ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS AND IMPACTS ASSESSMENT

Prioritization Index

HOT-SPOTS SELECTION

GIS-based selection

Causes of impairment

MANAGEMENT

Environmental data

Socio-economic data

MCDA

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER USES

Market and no-market valuation methods

Socio-economicIndices

PROBLEM FORMULATION

Existing data evaluationPRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

Hazard Index

DRIVING FORCES AND PRESSURES ANALYSIS

RRA MCDA

Environmental data

Socio-economic data

Quality Status Index

WOE

ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS AND IMPACTS ASSESSMENT

Causes of impairment

MCDA

Socio-economiccharacterization

MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSS

PROCEDUREFOR

INTEGRATEDRISK

ASSESSMENTPROCEDURE FORSOCIO-ECONOMIC EVALUATION

PROCEDURE FOR HOT SPOTS PRIORITIZATION

FRAMEWORK



The procedure aims at supporting water managers to realistically evaluate the ES of sampling sites by following a

risk-oriented approach including uncertainty estimation.

To this end information is organised and aggregated according to a set of inference rules that combines two mathematical

operators:

Minimum: i.e. OO-AA principle suggested by WFD (conservative and not compensative).

Average: widely applied in environmental research (not conservative but compensative).

CONCEPTEnvironmental module




DANUBEThe longest river in the European Union

and Europe's second longest river after the Volga.

The river originates in the Black Forest in Germany as the much smaller Brigach and Breg rivers which join at the German town Donaueschingen, after which it is known asthe Danube and flows eastwards for a distance of some 2850 km (1771 miles), passing through four Central and EasternEuropean capitals, before emptying into the Black Sea via the Danube Delta in Romaniaand Ukraine.

The Danube River basin, comprising the Danube and its tributaries, has a catchmentarea of 817,000 km2.

6 habitat typologies with at least 1 referencesite (Birk and van Kowen, 2009)

The majority of the sites have biological, chemical and physico-chemical indicators calculated for 2007.

APPLICATIONS




Danube DeltaEastern Wallachian Danube

Western Pontic Danube

Pannonian Plan Danube

Hungarian Danube Bend

Lower Alpine Foothills Danube DANUBE – Ecological Status

Fuzzy method

WFD one out all out



MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSSDANUBE - BiologyInvertebrate fauna

Phytobenthos



MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSSDANUBE – other QE

Chemical status(33 PP)

Chemistry

Physico-chemistry



MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSSAPPLICATIONS

ELBE

One of the major rivers of Central Europe. Itoriginates in northwestern Czech Republic beforetraversing much of Bohemia (CZ), then Germany and flowing into the North Sea. Its total length is 1,094 km.

The Elbe River basin, comprising the Elbe and itstributaries, has a catchment area of 148,268 km2, the fourth largest in Europe.

7 habitat typologies with at least 1 reference site (Organisch geprägte Bäche, SandgeprägteTieflandbäche, Sand-und lehmgeprägteTieflandflüsse, Kiesgeprägte Tieflandbäche, Kiesgeprägte Tieflandflüsse, Grobmaterialreiche, Silikatische Mittelgebirgsbäche)



MODELKEY DSSMODELKEY DSSELBEEcological status

Chemical status (33 PP)

Chemistry



MODELKEY DSS

PROMOTION

At national and local level: to support water managers involved in WFD implementation in Italy.

At EU level: to support the next RBMP cycles through further applications (e.g. link to AQUAREhab, link to WISER)

Outside EU border: to support water management in other countries (e.g. link to E-URAL)

FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS



MODELKEY DSS

RESEARCH NEEDS

Adaptation of the modules to be applied to coastal and transitional waters.

Adaptation of existing modules and/or development of new modules to support assessment and management of impacts due to climate change and water bodies vulnerability.

FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS



Thank you for attention!

[email protected]

Documents

MODELKEY DSS as supporting tool for River Basin …€¦ · Basin Management Plan definition: results from application to Elbe and Danube Elena Semenzin1, Stefania Gottardo1,2,Peter