Modeling Work GroupStaff Report

MWG MeetingAugust 1, 2011Web Meeting

2

• MWG analysis of high COI flows is ongoing• Past emphasis was on comparisons between

PROMOD and Gridview, which evolved into attempts to standardize the input and run assumptions.

• Currently, focus is on the differences in the generation commitment and dispatch.

COI Flow Analysis and Gridview Comparison

Result Comparison

Category2020 TEPPC PC0 -

COI984ipp 2020 Gridview PC0 Difference Diff %Conventional Hydro 246,723,896 246,809,200 85,304 0.035%Pumped Storage 2,942,544 2,962,073 19,529 0.664%Steam - Coal 296,325,674 278,831,582 (17,494,093) -5.904%Steam - Other 3,840,647 4,443,199 602,552 15.689%Nuclear 76,693,816 75,833,437 (860,379) -1.122%Combined Cycle 181,798,506 189,345,726 7,547,221 4.151%Combustion Turbine 13,068,291 17,535,122 4,466,830 34.181%Cogeneration 26,852,572 27,734,695 882,123 3.285%IC 338,701 364,828 26,127 7.714%Negative Bus Load 4,640,148 4,640,148 0 0.000%Biomass RPS 16,907,454 16,585,990 (321,463) -1.901%Geothermal 35,733,317 35,427,858 (305,459) -0.855%Small Hydro RPS 7,755,783 7,754,337 (1,446) -0.019%Solar 31,580,224 30,368,296 (1,211,928) -3.838%Wind 81,503,286 81,727,334 224,048 0.275%

Total 1,026,704,860 1,020,363,825 (6,341,035) -0.618%

Generation Results (MWh)

Comparison to new GV run by Sherman with loads reduced by 3.4% to back out transmission losses. Note large difference in coal generation.

Most Significant Gen Differences

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

GW

h

Difference (> 500 GWh) - Annual Generation GV-PM

Gridview Higher Than Promod

Gridview Lower Than Promod

Annual Energy Difference by Area

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

GWh

Annual Energy Difference: 2020 TEPPC PC0 - COI984ipp vs. 2020 Gridview PC0

Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other

In general, the trade-off is between coal and combined cycle generation, and appears to be caused by differences in the commitment and dispatch logic. Since the hurdle rates and tie limits effectively separate Alberta from other areas, initial analysis can focus there.

Difference in Alberta (MWh)

Category AlbertaConventional Hydro 63,420Pumped Storage 0Steam - Coal -3,227,128Steam - Other -2,794Nuclear 0Combined Cycle 1,237,317Combustion Turbine 1,916,084Cogeneration 157,767IC 389Biomass RPS -50,735Geothermal 0Small Hydro RPS 12Solar 0Wind 2,834

Total 97,168

Sample AESO Load/Gen (1)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2/7/2020 2/8/2020 2/9/2020 2/10/2020 2/11/2020 2/12/2020 2/13/2020 2/14/2020 2/15/2020 2/16/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Sample AESO Load/Gen (2)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

4/12/2020 4/13/2020 4/14/2020 4/15/2020 4/16/2020 4/17/2020 4/18/2020 4/19/2020 4/20/2020 4/21/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Sample AESO Load/Gen (3)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

5/10/2020 5/11/2020 5/12/2020 5/13/2020 5/14/2020 5/15/2020 5/16/2020 5/17/2020 5/18/2020 5/19/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Sample AESO Load/Gen (4)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

6/12/2020 6/13/2020 6/14/2020 6/15/2020 6/16/2020 6/17/2020 6/18/2020 6/19/2020 6/20/2020 6/21/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Sample AESO Load/Gen (5)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

9/1/2020 9/2/2020 9/3/2020 9/4/2020 9/5/2020 9/6/2020 9/7/2020 9/8/2020 9/9/2020 9/10/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Sample AESO Load/Gen (6)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

10/9/2020 10/10/2020 10/11/2020 10/12/2020 10/13/2020 10/14/2020 10/15/2020 10/16/2020 10/17/2020 10/18/2020

AESO Load/Gen Balance Snapshot - PC0-84COI+IPPnom

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Hydro+PS

Solar

Wind

Demand

Dump

Alberta Coal Dispatch - PromodAESO Coal Generation Results

Name

Num Starts

Num HoursOn

Num HoursOff

Percent TimeOn Max

Annual Energy (MWh)

BAT #5_5 14 7,897 887 89.9% 368 2,903,486 Genesee1 20 7,897 887 89.9% 384 3,029,377 Genesee2 21 7,897 887 89.9% 384 3,029,223 Genesee3 20 7,874 910 89.6% 450 3,539,940 HR_Milner_1 12 8,044 740 91.6% 143 1,150,234 Kephlls1 16 7,897 887 89.9% 411 3,243,037 Kephlls2 20 7,874 910 89.6% 411 3,232,925 Kephlls3 19 7,874 910 89.6% 450 3,509,615 Shernss1 17 7,897 887 89.9% 378 2,982,216 Shernss2 12 7,897 887 89.9% 378 2,983,043 Sundanc1 13 8,044 740 91.6% 280 2,250,763 Sundanc2 12 7,975 809 90.8% 280 2,231,555 Sundanc3 14 7,897 887 89.9% 353 2,786,084 Sundanc4 18 7,897 887 89.9% 406 3,203,226 Sundanc5 16 7,897 887 89.9% 406 3,202,976 Sundanc6 11 7,897 887 89.9% 399 3,149,194

14

• In PROMOD the hurdle rates represent a financial obstacle that must be overcome to allow economic interchange to occur.

• If the marginal price in SR A is $30 and the marginal price in SR B is $25 and the hurdle rate from B to A is $7, there would be no interchange.

Hurdle Rates

15

TEPPC Hurdle Rates for 2020

Forward Reverse$/MWh $/MWh

Alberta British Columbia $0.00 $48.00Alberta NWPP $0.00 $48.00AZNMNV RMPP $5.40 $2.60BASIN AZNMNV $5.40 $2.70BASIN CALIF_NORTH $5.40 $3.00BASIN CALIF_SOUTH $2.30 $2.30BASIN NWPP $5.40 $2.70BASIN RMPP $5.40 $2.70British Columbia NWPP $4.70 $2.80CALIF_NORTH CALIF_SOUTH $0.00 $0.00CALIF_NORTH NWPP $5.90 $6.10CALIF_SOUTH AZNMNV $2.60 $2.60NWPP CALIF_SOUTH $5.90 $7.70NWPP RMPP $7.30 $2.80

Region Connections

Study Year 2020

16

• Wrap-up• Next meeting

oNeed to set date (1st Monday is holiday)

• Note TAS meeting is August 8-9

Wrap-up and Next meeting

Questions?