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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3661 – 3670 1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1328 7UDQVSRUW 5HVHDUFK $UHQD±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vailable online at www.sciencedirect.com © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012

Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

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Page 1: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1328

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012

Page 2: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3662 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 3: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3663 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 4: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3664 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 5: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3665 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 6: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3666 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 7: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3667 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 8: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3668 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 9: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3669 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670

Page 10: Modeling Uncertainty During Cost Benefit Analysis of Transportation Projects with the Aid of Fuzzy Set Theory

3670 Alexander Maravas et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 ( 2012 ) 3661 – 3670


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