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ModelingstoragetechnologiesinCapacityExpansionModelsBradyStoll,Ph.D.StrategicEnergyAnalysisCenter
FERCTechnicalConferenceJune28,2017
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• RPMOverview
• MoHvaHonforbeJerstoragemodeling
• StorageMethodology
• Results
RPMOverview
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• Capacityexpansionmodelthatsimulatesleast-costinvestmentsinandoperaHonofageneraHonandtransmissionsystem
• SpecializedforanalysisofaregionalelectricsystemoverauHlityplanninghorizon(10-20years)o Includeshourlychronologicaldispatcho HighspaHalresoluHonofexisHngandnewresourceso Real-worldtransmissionsystem
ResourcePlanningModel(RPM)
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Database:CompleteWesternInterconnecHondataforallmajorgeneraHonunitsandtransmissionlines
Technology Units Capacityin2010(GW)
Coal 143 39
Gas-CC 208 60
Nuclear 8 10
Gas-CT 434 20
OtherGas 184 23
Biomass 62 2
Geothermal 57 3
Hydropower 641 70
PumpedHydro 15 4
PV 5 <1
CSP 10 <1
Wind 144 12
Total 1,911 243
20,086TransmissionLines
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Flexibledatapla`ormallowsdevelopmentofregion-specificmodels
• AggregatedtransmissionandgeneraHonoutsideoffocus-region
• MaintainsspaHalresoluHonoffocusregion
• Fulltransmissionmodelandindividualunitswithinfocusregion
• Representhurdle-ratesbetweenregions
• TemporallyconsistentwithproducHoncostmodel
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HighlydetailedrenewableresourcedataisaggregatedforhighdefiniHoninthefocus-region
Solar Resource Regions
MoHvaHonforbeJerstoragemodeling
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• StateRenewablePor`olioStandards(RPS)• CaliforniaAB32• EPACleanPowerPlan(CPP)
ResultsfromReEDS2015StandardScenarios(Sullivanetal.2015)
Renewabledeploymentexpectedbasedonpolicyandeconomics
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IncreasedsystemflexibilityisknowntosupportREgridintegraHon
(DenholmandHand2011)
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• OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o Isdispatchfeasible?o ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?
• ResourcevaluaHonissueso Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment
• AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions
o NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon
ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling
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• OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o Isdispatchfeasible?o ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?
• ResourcevaluaHonissueso Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment
• AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions
o NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon
ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling
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• OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o Isdispatchfeasible?o ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?
• ResourcevaluaHonissueso Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment
• AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions
o NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon
ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling
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• OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o Isdispatchfeasible?o ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?
• ResourcevaluaHonissueso Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment
• AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions
o NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon
ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling
Methodology
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0. RPMwasiniHallydesignedwithhighrenewablefuturesandflexibilityinmindo Chronological,hourlydispatcho OperaHngreservesbasedonVGpenetraHono Unitcommitmentandrampingconstraintso Unit-leveldetailandtransmissioninfocusregiono DynamiccapacityvaluecalculaHons
Approach
• RPMcancapturemanyofthekeyvaluaHonsforflexibility.
• HowevercomputaHonallimitaHonspreventadequatecoverageoverHme(e.g.,hourlyisnotpossible).
• WeuseHme-seriesandloadduraHoncurvetechniquesoutsideoftheopHmizaHontobeJercaptureflexibilityduring“tail”events.
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0. RPMwasiniHallydesignedwithhighrenewablefuturesandflexibilityinmindo Chronological,hourlydispatcho OperaHngreservesbasedonVGpenetraHono Unitcommitmentandrampingconstraintso Unit-leveldetailandtransmissioninfocusregiono DynamiccapacityvaluecalculaHons
Approach
• RPMcancapturemanyofthekeyvaluaHonsforflexibility.
• HowevercomputaHonallimitaHonspreventadequatecoverageoverHme(e.g.,hourlyisnotpossible).
• WeuseHme-seriesandloadduraHoncurvetechniquesoutsideoftheopHmizaHontobeJercaptureflexibilityduring“tail”events.
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1. “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.
o ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.
o Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels
Approach
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1. “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.
o ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.
o Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels
Approach
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1. “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.
o ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.
o Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels
Approach
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1. “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.
o ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.
o Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels
Approach
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2. Addflexibletechnologyinvestmentso Storagewithmaximumandminimumenergyconstraints
o Captureappropriatevaluestreams,someofwhichrequire8760calculaHons(e.g.capacityvalue,curtailmentreducHon)
o CurrentandfuturecostesHmatesvarysignificantlyandareuncertain.ThusweincludearangeofpossiblecoststodetermineHppingpointsformeasurabledeployment.
Approach
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• StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity
• AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods
• CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’
Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc
Charge
Discharge
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• StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity
• AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods
• CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’
Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc
Charge
Discharge
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• StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity
• AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods
• CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’
Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc
Charge
Discharge
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• StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity
• AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods
• CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’
Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc
Charge
Discharge
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• Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours• ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity• AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:
o capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ
Yoga:CapacityValue
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• Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours• ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity• AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:
o capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ
Yoga:CapacityValue
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• Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours• ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity• AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:
o capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ
Yoga:CapacityValue
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• Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours• ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity• AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:
o capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ
Yoga:CapacityValue
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• CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.
• WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.
Yoga:Curtailment
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• CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.
• WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.
Yoga:Curtailment
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• CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.
• WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.
Yoga:Curtailment
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• CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.
• WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.
Yoga:Curtailment
Scenarios
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CapacityExpansionforBaselineScenariosBase
HighRenewable
• ExisHngpolicies• Mid-linePVandwindcosts• MidStoragecosts• AEOReferenceNaturalGasprices• NoCarbonprice
• ExisHngpolicies• Mid-linePVandwindcosts• MidStoragecosts• AEOHighNaturalGasprices• MedianCarbonprice
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AnnualGeneraHonforBaselineScenarios
HighRenewables
Base
• Solargrowthstartsin2020• Mildwindgrowth• Significantcurtailmentdoesn’t
startunHl2035• IncreaseingasCCgeneraHonin
2035
• Solargrowthstartsin2020• SignificantwindgeneraHonin
2025• Significantcurtailmentstarts
in2030
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Storagecosttrajectories
TrajectoriesfromColeet.al.forseveralstoragecapaciHes
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StoragecapacitybuiltbyRPM
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StoragecapacitybuiltbyRPM
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StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,BaseHighStorageCosts• ReducHonofwindand
increaseofgasCC• ReducHonofcurtailment
largelyfromlowerrenewabledispatch
LowStorageCosts• Largeincreasesolarand
storagegeneraHon• ReducHoninsolarcurtailment
andcoalgeneraHon
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StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,BaseHighStorageCosts• ReducHonofwindand
increaseofgasCC• ReducHonofcurtailment
largelyfromlowerrenewabledispatch
LowStorageCosts• Largeincreasesolarand
storagegeneraHon• ReducHoninsolarcurtailment
andcoalgeneraHon
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StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,HighREHighStorageCosts• Increaseincurtailmentandgas
generaHon• ReducHoninsolarandstorage
generaHon
LowStorageCosts• Increaseinsolar,storageand
gasgeneraHon• Decreaseincurtailment,and
windgeneraHonfromreducedinstallaHons
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StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,HighREHighStorageCosts• Increaseincurtailmentandgas
generaHon• ReducHoninsolarandstorage
generaHon
LowStorageCosts• Increaseinsolar,storageand
gasgeneraHon• Decreaseincurtailment,and
windgeneraHonfromreducedinstallaHons
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Dispatch,HighRE,lowstoragecosts
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StorageOperaHon,long-duraHon
• Charginglargelyoccursduringhighsolarhours• Dispatchlargelyoccursduringanernoonpeak• Long-duraHonstorageprovidesspinningandregulaHonreserves
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StorageOperaHon,short-duraHon
• Short-termbaJeriesaremostlyusedforregulaHonreserves
• GeneraHonprovidedoccasionally
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ValueofStorage,Base,midstoragecosts
• Storageisonlyinstalledin2020and2025tomeetAB32
• ReservesprovisionenableshigherenergycapaciHesintheseyears
• NoeconomicstorageinstalledunHl2035
• 2-hourstorageinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andreserves
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ValueofStorage,Base,midstoragecosts
• Storageisonlyinstalledin2020and2025tomeetAB32
• ReservesprovisionenableshigherenergycapaciHesintheseyears
• NoeconomicstorageinstalledunHl2035
• 2-hourstorageinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andreserves
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ValueofStorage,HighRE,lowstoragecosts
• Storageisonlyinstalledin2020tomeetAB32,withreservesprovisionenablinghigherenergycapaciHes
• 30-minto1-hourstorageareinstalledlargelyforreservesprovision
• By2030,4and8hourstorageareinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andenergyshining
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• RPMrepresentsrenewablesandflexibletechnologywithhighresoluHoninresourceavailabilityanddispersion
• UsemethodologydesignedtofullycapturethetailsofoperaHontoensurewecapturethefullvalueflexibletechnologiesprovide
• RPMrepresentsmulHplevaluestreamsavailabletostoragetechnologiesinplanningandoperaHonsofanelectricgrid
Conclusions
QuesHons?
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Whoarewe?
ClaytonBarrowsPh.D.EnergyandMineralEngineeringPennsylvaniaStateUniversity
AnthonyLopezM.S.GeographicInformaHonScienceUniversityofDenver
ElaineHalePh.D.ChemicalEngineeringUniversityofTexas,AusHn
TrieuMaiPh.D.TheoreHcalPhysicsUniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz
DylanHeUngerB.S.GeographyAppalachianStateUniversity
BradyStollPh.D.MechanicalEngineeringUniversityofTexas,AusHn
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StorageCostImpactsonCapacity,BaseHighStorageCosts• Approximatelythesametotal
storagecapacity,butsmallerenergycapaciHes
• ReducHonofwindcapacitygetsbuilt,withincreaseingasCCunits
LowStorageCosts• Largeincreaseintotalstorage
capacitybuilt,withlargerenergycapaciHesbuiltstarHngin2025
• Increaseinsolarcapacity,reducHonofwindandbothgastechnologies
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StorageCostImpactsonCapacity,HighREHighStorageCosts• ReducHoninstoragecapacity
starHngin2030• Increaseinwindandgas
technologiesanddecreaseinsolarPV
LowStorageCosts• Largeincreaseintotalstorage
capacitybuilt,withlargerenergycapaciHesbuiltstarHngin2030
• Decreaseinwindandgastechnologies
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Foreachmodelyear(2010,2015,…,2030)…
min (capitalandfixedcostsfornewgenerators)+(capitalandfixedcostsfornewtransmission)+(variable,fuel,start-up,andcarboncosts)+(transmissionhurdlerates)
s.t. allowedlocaHonsandsizesofnewassets windandsolarresourceavailability
loadbalancing(hourlychronological,4dispatchperiods)transmissionconstraintscapacity,reserve,andenergyconstraintspolicyconstraints(RPSandCPP)unitcommitment(opHonal)minimumplantsize(opHonal)
ResourcePlanningModel(RPM)
