Modeling of Regional Climate change effects on ground-level ozone and childhood asthmaPerry E. Sheffield, Kim Knowlton, Jessie L. Carr, Patrick L. Kinney

Background

Asthma “is a genetic and environmental disorder” (1)

the most prevalent chronic disease among children

Morbidity the occurrence of a disease among a population Adolescent asthma morbidity is greatest among

children in urban areas.

Ozone a pollutant created by photochemical reactions

with other pollutants and volatile organic chemicals (VOC)

Significance

“canary in the coal mine”

Image source: http://ithinkmining.com/2008/04/04/do-not-entrust-your-life-to-mining-professors-rely-on-your-own-judgement/

Methods

36 x 36 km grid covering NYC metropolitan area 14 counties

Models for global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality were coupled together

regional model: simulated ground-level ozone levels for June to August

health outcome model: 8 hour maximum ground-level ozone concentrations

Methods summer county-level impacts measured by

M = (P/10,000) x B x ERC

M : average daily number of asthma emergency department visits of children ages 0-17P : county population of 0-17 year oldsB : basic county rate for daily asthma emergency

visits during the summer of children ages 0-17, per 10,000 populationERC : exposure-risk coefficient of asthma

morbidity

Method Problems

The ERC used was not geographically, diagnostically, or age specific to the population under study because there is no such information yet.

Population was kept constant in the 2020s.

Available data from the NYS Department of Health provided asthma emergency department visits of patients of any age.

Method Problems

Other factors on future morbidity rates were not analyzed, such as disease management, access to care, and demographic shifts.

Anthropogenic ground-level ozone emissions were kept constant, as well.

Results

For the Health Outcomes Assessment model, the average daily summer concentration for ground-level ozone increased across the measured grid by 2.7 to 5.3 ppb.

In the 2020s, the average regional adolescent asthma emergency department visits increased by 7.3%.

Projected population growth resulted in an average of a 10.6% increase in asthma morbidity.

Discussion

Climate change could cause an increase of 7.3% in summer ozone related asthma emergency department visits among children aged 0 to 17 across New York City by the 2020s.

Table source: page 254 of the paper

Additional Notes

The ozone simulations utilized did not account for outside climate influences.

the influence of air conditioning

This study provides a basis for local, regional, and national discussion of the effects of ground-level ozone on childhood asthma.

Source

Sheffield, P.E., K. Knowlton, J.L. Carr, P.L. Kinney. 2011. Modeling of regional climate change effects on ground-level ozone and childhood asthma. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 41:251-257.