Modeling,LearningandPlanningTogetherAddressingBigQuestionswithData,Models,and

ParticipatoryExploration

MoiraZellnerAssociateProfessor,UPP

ResearchAssociateProfessor,IESPDirector,UDVL

NSFSUSworkshop

TheUniversityofTexasatAustinAugust22-24,2019

Motivations

Source: http://www.greenpeace.org Source: sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com

QuestionsI:Toolsformodeling

•  Sustainablegrowth•  Effectivenessofgreeninfrastructure•  Localeconomicinterestsv.regionalenvironmentalgoals

•  Managingfloodinganddroughtinagriculture

Modelingcoupledhuman-naturalsystems

Demo

•  SOMEmodel

AnswersI:Toolsformodeling

•  Growthisnotsustainable(.)–  ZellnerandReeves(2012)

•  Greeninfrastructure:Thresholdsandlayouts–  Zellneretal.(2016)

•  Collaborativeconservationcanariseunderdevelopmentpressure–  Zellneretal.(2010)

•  Adaptationcanreducecroplossesbutexacerbateflooding–  Zellneretal.(2019)

Conventionalplanningandmodeling

(Zellner 2008)

“Unconventional”planningandmodeling

(Zellner 2008)

Challenges

•  Communicationacrossexpertise•  Spatialthinkingandcomputermodeling•  Confirmatorybias•  Consensus-buildingandgeneralization

QuestionsII:Toolsforparticipation

•  Howcancomplexsystemsmodelinghelpuslearn?

•  Howdoeslearningleadtobetterplanningdeliberationanddecision-making?

Whatwe’velearned

•  Itsupportslearningandinnovation•  It’shard!•  It’sdeeplyhuman•  Twostories:

–  Smallisbeautiful– Makingtheinvisiblevisible

WaterSustainabilityinNEIllinois

Data Sources Illinois base data – Illinois GIS Data Clearinghouse Wisconsin base data – Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources 2001 Land Use Data – Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning

Smallisbeautiful

Groundwatersupply

SOMEModel(SLUCEProject)

(Zellner et al. 2012)

SOMEModel

(Zellner et al. 2012)

SOME-GWModel

DetailedModel

Learning,innovationandresistance

•  TransparencyofassumptionsThereisnoresidentialgrowthhere…exceptin…“Ifwaterisnotaproblem,thenwhyarecommunitiesdoingconservation?”

•  MentalmodelingLakeMichiganwaterandgroundwatereffects

•  Favoredapproacheswon’twork“There'stheideathat…we'regonnahavesuchabigimpactanditreallydoesn't”Couldn’tisolatethemselvesfromtheimpactofgrowth

•  Specificityofalternativesolutions“Dowecreategiantrechargeareasthatwillassistthewholeregion?...““Ithinkwe’relearningthat{regionalwatermanagement}isessentialforallofus”“I’dneverbringthisupinapublicmeeting…”butwhataboutinjection?

•  Andyet…rejection(Hochetal.2015)-  Inaccuracy

DiscourseanalysisI

(Radinskyetal.2016)

DiscourseanalysisII

Simpleinterfaces…

(Zellneretal.Inprogress)

Todetailedinterfaces

Simpleprocesses…

Todetailedprocesses

23

Lessons

•  Keepitsimple•  Useintermediatetangibleuserinterfaces(TUI)•  Interactiveexerciseversusinstruction•  Startwithmorevisibleproblems

Makingtheinvisiblevisible

Flooding

Anillustrationinflooding

L-GrID model (Zellner et al. 2016)

Anillustration:Rainbarrelsorbioswales?

Thingstoconsider

•  Simulationsalonearenotenough-  Tradeoffs-  Costsanddistribution-  Spatialconstraints-  Diversestakeholderinterests

•  Solution-buildingANDcompromise-  Awarenessofpreferences-  Addressingdiverseneeds

•  metrics,evaluation,exploration

Workshopsetup

(Zellner et al. in press)

Concernprofile

Workshopsetup

Workshopsetup

Workshopsetup

Sortedsimulationresults

34

Socialviewer

Socialviewer

Workshopsetup

Learning,innovation,compromise

•  TransparencyofassumptionsandtradeoffsJo:“Ohwow,that’smuchbetter…foryou.”Nina:“Iguessitmatterswhatyourprioritiesare!”Kevin:“Damagewasreducedby87%…butwewereoverbudgetby1.2million.”

•  Systematicexploration“Let’sstartbygoingcrazy,puttingalotofstuffonhere,andthenparebackfromthere.”“Wecanrunmultiplesimulations,solet’srunthisoneandthentrythat”

•  GesturingandmentalmodelingFollowingtheflowImaginingdifferentperformance

•  Greeninfrastructurecannotlocallysolvetheproblem“Perhapsweneedtothinkofmovingthehousesoutofthere”GreenANDgrayinfrastructureCoordinationwithothercommunities

AnswersII:Toolsforparticipation

•  Collaborativedesign•  Facilitationforsynthesis•  Consensusorcompromise?•  Participatorymodelingasapointofentry

–  totheproblem,–  toothertools,–  todiverseinterests–  tootherproblems

APA Academic Tech Innovator Award 2017 (Zellner et al. in press)

Futureplans

•  Refiningandextendingparticipatorymodelingandvisualization–  Newdomains:energy,food,airandwaterquality–  Newcontexts:SouthAmerica,Australia,MiddleEast–  Newtoolsandapproaches:scalingup,datalifecycle

•  Contributingtocommunities–  Scholarly:ComSES,CSDMS–  Decision-making:USandStateCongress,NCSE

•  Interdisciplinaryteaching

Whydothis?

•  Changingestablishedheuristics•  Supportingtheevolutionofunderstandingandvaluation

•  Technologyasaprostheticdevicefordecision-making

•  Innovationiscriticalforresilienceandsustainability

Acknowledgments•  LeilahLyons,DanMilz,CharlesHoch,JoshRadinsky,BenO’Connor,

MaxDieber,AndyJohnson,EmilyMinor,DeanMassey,JustinKeller,EricBoria,JenWeizeorick,JoPena,CarlKunda,EthanBrown,LissaDomoracki,AprilSchneider,KelseyPudlock,JoeyShelley,BrianSlattery,LisaCotner.

•  Chicagoregionstakeholders•  TimLoftus,JasonNavota,NoraBeck,CMAP•  JoshEllis,DanielleGallet,SarahCardona,MPC•  JohnWatson,JimYurik,RichFisher,JackChan,AnnieWright,MWRD•  HowardReeves,USGS•  AlWehrmann,Yu-FengLin,ScottMeyer,ISWS•  UrbanPlanningandPolicy,GreatCitiesInstitute,InstituteforPublic

andCivicEngagement(UIC),UICChancellorDiscoveryFund,•  NationalScienceFoundationCI-TEAMandREESEprograms.

Thankyou!

MoiraZellnermzellner@uic.edu