MODELING

HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL

SYSTEMS IN

TRANSBOUNDARY

REGIONS

ASHLEY PAGE

• Introduction: System dynamics modeling

• Background: Hydrologic-social system research

• Summary: NM WRRI research team efforts

• Applications: Modeling for transboundary regions

PRESENTATION STRUCTURE 2

The purpose of a system dynamics study is to understand the causes of a dynamic problem, and

search for the policies that alleviate/eliminate them.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING 3

(BARLAS, 2002)

4SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING, continued

Discovery

• Created by Jay Forester in the 1950s

Strengths

• Understanding nonlinear behavior

• Complex systems

(MIT Sloan School of Management, 2008)

Background

• Malin Falkenmark in 1979

• Resurgence in recent years

• Potential for transboundary regions

• (Blair and Buytaert, 2016)

5HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL RESEARCH

(Stockholm International Water Institute, 2018)

HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL MODELING OF

TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS

6

A system dynamics approach

allows for the analysis of:

• separate, yet intrinsically

connected decision-making

analysis

• connected hydrologic system

• unintended consequences

(Torres, 2017)

• Sam Fernald, Director

• Transboundary research region:

• Mesilla Basin

• Research interests:

• Surface water-groundwater interactions

• Watershed management effects on runoff and water quality

• Water and society

• Transboundary water management

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: afernald@nmsu.edu

7

• Saeed Langarudi, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist

• Transboundary research region:

• Mesilla Basin

• Research interests:

• Natural resources management

• Political economy

• Public policy

• Development economics

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: lang@nmsu.edu

8

• Babak Bahaddin, Graduate Researcher

• Transboundary research region:

• Mesilla Basin

• Research interests:

• Archetypes and generic structures in water resources management

• Socio-economic feedback loops in water systems

• Dynamic mechanisms for closed surface and groundwater systems

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: babak@nmsu.edu

9

• Yining Bai, Graduate Research Assistant

• Transboundary research region:

• Mesilla Basin

• Research interests:

• Regional groundwater resilience

• Agricultural water usage

• Efficiency of natural resource storage

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: ynb@nmsu.edu

10

• Connie Maxwell, Graduate Research Assistant

• Transboundary research regions: Mesilla Valley and Hatch Valley

• Research interests:

• Watershed restoration (multi-functional benefits, including flood mitigation)

• Stormwater harvesting (mitigation of flood energy and aquifer recharge)

• Community collaboration (working to develop NM WRRI’s Water and Community Collaboration Lab)

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: alamosa@nmsu.edu

11

• Ahmed Mashaly, Graduate Research Assistant

• Transboundary research region:

• Southern New Mexico

• Research interests:

• Water-Energy Nexus

• Implications of water and energy interactions

• Analysis of integrated water and energy management

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH

Contact: amashaly@nmsu.edu

12

• Langarudi, Saeed, Ashley Page, Connie Maxwell, Yining Bai, Babak Bahaddin, and Alexander Fernald. 2019. “System-Wide Policy Solutions for Water Issues.” Submitted to the 37th International System Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque, NM: System Dynamics Society.

• A. Page, S. P. Langarudi, S. Forster-Cox, and A. Fernald. A Dynamic HydroSocio-Technical Policy Analysis of Transboundary Desalination Development. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management, 7(1):87– 114, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.5890/JEAM.2019.3.007.

• Langarudi, Saeed P., Connie M. Maxwell, Yining Bai, Austin Hanson, and Alexander Fernald. 2019. “Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?” Ecological Economics 159 (May): 35–45.

• Bai, Yining, Saeed P. Langarudi, and Alexander Fernald. 2017. “Long-Term Dynamics of AcequiaPopulation in New Mexico.” In 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, MA.

• Langarudi, Saeed P., and Carlos G. Silva. 2017. “Crop Price Volatility and Its Influence on Crop Patterns.” In Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference of The Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, 4:1–4:10. CSS 2017. New York, NY.

NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH 13

MESILLA BASIN HYDRO-SOCIAL

TRANSBOUNDARY RESEARCH

Research: Evaluating Policy and Management Instabilities in the

Transboundary Mesilla Basin Hydro-Social System to Rectify Public

Health Concerns

(El Paso Times, 2017)

Ashley Page, Sam Fernald, Saeed Langarudi, Sue Forster-Cox, Humaira Rahman

14

• A Dynamic Hydro-Socio-

Technical Policy Analysis

of Transboundary

Desalination

Development

Focus groups

• Key findings

• Cost

• Reform

• Quality

• Need for

further

research

PREVIOUS RESEARCH

Created by Robert Sabie Jr., NM WRRI

15

System Dynamics model

• Hydrologic-social analysis to investigate

the systematic instabilities that create a

gap between the expressed health

needs of the community and their

rectification

• Focus on the feedbacks between the

hydrologic and social system

• Analysis of unintended consequences

RESEARCH COMPONENTS 16

RESEARCH COMPONENTS

Hydrologic components

Public health components

Policy decision-making components

17

Community

• Meeting to discuss results from

previous focus group

• Receive updated feedback regarding

their water-related and action concerns

Public Health

• Investigate the impact of arsenic

contamination on the health of the

community

RESEARCH COMPONENTS,

continued

18

Ashley Page

apage@nmsu.edu

CONTACT 19