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Modeling China’s Energy FutureModeling China’s Energy Future
A coordinated analysis between A coordinated analysis between Tsinghua Global Climate Change Institute Tsinghua Global Climate Change Institute
Princeton Environmental Institute andPrinceton Environmental Institute and
Clean Energy CommercializationClean Energy Commercialization
Dr.Pat DeLaquilDr.Pat DeLaquilPresented to the Tsinghua University Presented to the Tsinghua University
BP-CEC MARKAL WorkshopBP-CEC MARKAL WorkshopApril 14, 2006April 14, 2006
2
CCICED Addressed Four Key Questions: How can China
• Meet its projected demand for energy services? (Quadruple GDP by 2020)
• Meet projected liquid fuel needs, especially for transportation, while not becoming over-dependent on imported energy?
• Reduce urban and rural air pollution while meeting its projected demands for energy services?
• Meet requirements for lower carbon emissions that may be implemented due to global warming concerns?
3
China MARKAL Model StructureResources Conversion
Technologies
Wind
Uranium
Solar
Natural Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Coal
Biomass
Oil
Coal Bed Methane
Electricity
Hydrogen
RefinedLiquids
Coal
Bio-Gas
SynthesisGas
Nat. Gas& CBM
Final Energy Carriers
Heat
Demand SectorsEnd-UseTechnologies
AgriculturalElectric MotorsAgro-ProcessingIrrigationFarming Machines
CommercialAir conditioningLightingSpace heating
Rural residentialCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating
Urban residentialAir conditioningCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating
IndustrialAmmoniaAluminumCementPaperSteelOther
TransportationAirShipPipelineRail Automobile / BusTruck
4 Agricultural processes
12 Passenger transport
8 Freight transport
16 Industrial processes
2 Industrial electricity & non-fuel
4 Industrial heat processes
6 Commercial space heat
6 Commercial air conditioning
2 Urban air conditioning
5 Urban cooking & water heat
6 Rural cooking & water heat
7 Urban space heat
3 Lighting & Appliances
7 Rural space heat
2 Hydro Power
1 Nuclear Power
2 Wind Power
6 IGCC power/CHP
21 Combustion/CHP
9 Poly-Generation
10 Synthetic Fuels
1 Ethanol Production
1 Oil Refining
1 Coal Wash & 1 Coke
2 Solar Power
5 Gasifier/Digester
1 Geothermal Power
4 Hydrogen Production
2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP
2 Heat Plants
Resources ConversionTechnologies
Wind
Uranium
Solar
Natural Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Coal
Biomass
Oil
Coal Bed Methane
Electricity
Hydrogen
RefinedLiquids
Coal
Bio-Gas
SynthesisGas
Nat. Gas& CBM
Final Energy Carriers
Heat
Demand SectorsEnd-UseTechnologies
AgriculturalElectric MotorsAgro-ProcessingIrrigationFarming Machines
CommercialAir conditioningLightingSpace heating
Rural residentialCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating
Urban residentialAir conditioningCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating
IndustrialAmmoniaAluminumCementPaperSteelOther
TransportationAirShipPipelineRail Automobile / BusTruck
4 Agricultural processes
12 Passenger transport
8 Freight transport
16 Industrial processes
2 Industrial electricity & non-fuel
4 Industrial heat processes
6 Commercial space heat
6 Commercial air conditioning
2 Urban air conditioning
5 Urban cooking & water heat
6 Rural cooking & water heat
7 Urban space heat
3 Lighting & Appliances
7 Rural space heat
2 Hydro Power
1 Nuclear Power
2 Wind Power
6 IGCC power/CHP
21 Combustion/CHP
9 Poly-Generation
10 Synthetic Fuels
1 Ethanol Production
1 Oil Refining
1 Coal Wash & 1 Coke
2 Solar Power
5 Gasifier/Digester
1 Geothermal Power
4 Hydrogen Production
2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP
2 Heat Plants
4
Methodology for Projecting Energy Service Demands
• Future energy demands projections were based on comparisons with historical data for various OECD countries at similar levels of GDP per capita
• Key assumption was that by 2050 China as a whole will have developed to the levels of energy services that are characterized key OECD countries in the mid-1990s
• Cross-country comparisons were selected to minimize the differences in economic structure, demographics, geography, culture, development path, etc.
• The methodology ties the projection of energy service demands to the level of economic development toward which China aspires in the future
5
Projections for Primary Fossil Energy Demand in China
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pri
mar
y F
oss
il E
ner
gy
Use
(E
xajo
ule
s)
Actual Use
This Study Baseline
Issues and Options (WB/Jt Study Group, 1994) China
Country Study(USDOE/SSTC/Tsinghua, 1999)
Energy Development Strategy(ERI, 1999)
International Energy Outlook(EIA, 2000, 2001)
China Carbon Scenarios(LBNL Projection, 2001)
National Response Strategy(E-W Ctr/ANL/Tsinghua, 1994)
This Study High Transport
This Study Low Efficiency
6
Potential Domestic Fossil Fuel Supplies
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Pet
ajo
ule
s
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
CBM
CBM w/CO2 stimulation
Cumulative 1995-2050
1995 Proved reserves
1995 Estimated reserves
Coal (billion t) 138 118 1000
Oil (billion t) 9.3 10 102
Natural gas (trillion m3) 6.4 1.4 47 to 62
CBM (trillion m3) 2.3 -- 30 to 35
CBM w/CO2 injection (trillion m3) 2.5 -- 30?
7
Environmental and Energy- Security Constraints
Sulfur Emissions Constraint• SO2 emission level for 2020 is
government target of 16.5 Mt• 2050 constraint of 10.4 Mt brings
China to same level of SO2 emission per GJ of coal consumption as US in 2000
Sulfur Dioxide Emission Constraint
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mil
lio
n T
on
s S
O2
Energy Security Constraints
• Imported oil and natural gas constrained to be 30% to 50% of total oil and gas fuel consumption in any given year.
Carbon Emissions ConstraintsWRE emissions scenario
Cumulative CO2,
1990-2100 (Gt C)
China’s allowable C emissions,
1995-2050
(Gt C)
Stable CO2
(ppmv)
Global China’s “allowance
”
High 750 1400 301 89
Medium 550 1100 237 80
Low 450 750 161 66
Very low 350 380 82 46
8
Two Technology Scenarios
BASE TECHNOLOGIES
• Coal used primarily by existing or advanced direct combustion technologies
• Energy end-use technologies include current best energy-efficiency options
• Renewable energy technology limited to those currently commercial
• Carbon sequestration options are not available
• Available starting in 1995 or 2000
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES• Advanced poly-generation
technologies based on gasification of coal and biomass
• Advanced high-efficiency industrial processes
• Advanced renewable energy technologies
• Urban residential demand technologies
• Hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehicles
• Carbon capture and sequestration options
• Available starting between 2005 and 2015
9
Technology Characteristics Advanced Techs were phased in over 3, 5-year periods at 1.5, 1.25 and 1.1 times their mature plant cost
Efficiency
(% LHV)
Capital Cost
($/kW)
Fixed O&M
($/kW-yr)
Variable O&M
($/kWh)SO2
(gr/kWh)
BASE Technologies
Coal, steam plant with FGD (500 MW) 36.4 1,090 16.1 0.0020 0.46
Natural gas, gas turbine combined cycle 58.1 600 16.1 0.0015 0
Nuclear 33.0 2,000 40.0 0.0086 0
Wind, large-scale with long-dist. transmission - 580 5.0 0.0020 0
ADVANCED Technologies
Coal, integrated gasification/combined cycle 43.0 1,068 21.4 0.0024 0.075
Coal, gasification-based, with CO2 capture 36.8 1,383 27.7 0.0031 0
Natural gas, combined cycle with CO2 capture 50.8 1,008 18.1 0.0026 0
H2, distributed fuel cell combined heat/power 41.0 250 10.0 0 0
Biomass, electricity and DME co-production 16.3 2,141 44.8 0.0064 0
10
Domestic and Imported Oil Use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
BASE CASE Revised Transport DemandProjection
AdvTech with All Caps
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Imported
Domestic
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps
Base case oil imports are 435 Mt/yr in 2050 while AdvTech oil imports peak at about 75 Mt/yr in 2025. Transport drives Base case oil demand. Natural gas imports are reduced from 120 bcm (Base) to 70 bcm (AdvTech).
11
Gas & Syn. Fuel by Type
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports
Pet
ajo
ule
s
N. gas
Methanol
Hydrogen
CBM
Coal gas
Coal Liquids
DME
F-T Liquids
Ethanol
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps
AdvTech scenario employs a variety of synthetic fuels: coal gas for urban heating and cooking; methanol, F-T liquids and later hydrogen for transportation; DME from biomass for rural heating & cooking
12
Electricity Production by Fuel/Technology
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports
TW
h
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydropower
H2 Fuel Cell
NG Fuel Cell
NG Combustion
Nuclear
Oil
Coal Gasif. w CO2 Seq.
Coal Gasification
Coal Combustion
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps
In AdvTech scenario, coal combustion is replaced by coal gasification and CO2 sequestration. Biomass and wind power plants make significant contributions. CO2 used for enhanced resource recovery of CBM.
13
Total Primary Energy Supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports
Ex
ajo
ule
s
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLES
NUCLEAR
CBM
NGAS
OIL
COALGasification
COALCombustion
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps
AdvTech scenario uses renewable energy in 2005-2020 period, which slows coal use. Coal gasification technologies start in 2005 but grow rapidly after 2020 when plant costs mature.
14
Carbon Emissions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
BASE CASE Revised Transport DemandProjection
AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s c
arb
on
Total
Coml & Res
Electric
Industry
Transport
CarbonSequestered
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps
AdvTech: CO2 emissions from electricity generation are reduced by renewables, CO2 sequestration and by fuel-switching in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors.
15
AdvTech cases can achieve SO2, Oil30 and CO2 targets for lower cost than only achieving SO2 targets with the Base technologies.
System Cost Impact
-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
BASE
BASE-SO2
ADVTECH
ADVTECH-SO2
ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O
ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O-C66
Percent Change from BASE
16
Conclusions• AdvTech strategy offers the opportunity to achieve China’s
sustainable development goals at lower cost than a “business-as-usual” approach
• AdvTech strategy also provides a lower-cost path to deep reductions in CO2 emissions
• To realize the 3E’s: Economic Development, Energy Security and Environmental Protection Coal use must shift from combustion to gasification based
technologies, which enables the production of clean synthetic liquid and gas fuels and significantly reduces the cost of CO2 capture and sequestration
Gas and liquid fuels from coal and biomass need to play increasingly important roles in the energy economy
Energy efficiency and Renewable energy need to take on significant roles
Modest contributions from nuclear power can help achieve goals, but nuclear power is not essential if energy efficiency is stressed
17
Recent Developments in China
• Target 15% of energy consumption from renewable energies by 2020
• Commit US$185 billion investment
• Implementation of Renewable Energy Law
• Provide tax incentives for local manufacturing
• Bio-fuels Corn ethanol Bio-diesel
• Coal gasification-polygeneration Shandong – Fischer Tropsche liquids Ningsha – Dimethyl ether (DME)
18
References• “Transforming Coal for Sustainability: A Strategy for China”,
Report by the Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, 1 September 2003
• Pat DeLaquil, Chen Wenying and Eric Larson “Modeling China’s Energy Future”, Proceedings of the Workshop on Coal Gasification for Clean and Secure Energy for China, 25-26 August 2003, Tsinghua University, Beijing (available from CCICED Secretariat)
• Eric Larson, “Synthetic Fuel Production from Indirect Coal Liquefaction” ibid.
• Zhou Dadi “Energy Policy in China in Coming 20 years”, ibid.
• Thomas B. Johansson, “Energy for Sustainability: a Broad Strategy for China” ibid.
• Robert H. Williams and Eric Larson “A Compsrison of Direct and Indirect Liquefaction Technologies for Making Fluid Fuels from Coal” ibid.