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Modeling Applications of the ESA GlobSnow Data Record. Chris Derksen , Ross Brown, Bill Merryfield Climate Research Division Environment Canada Lawrence Mudryk, Paul Kushner, Department of Physics University of Toronto - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Modeling Applications of the ESA GlobSnow Data RecordChris Derksen, Ross Brown, Bill MerryfieldClimate Research DivisionEnvironment Canada
Lawrence Mudryk, Paul Kushner, Department of PhysicsUniversity of Toronto
Stephane Belair, Bernard Bilodeau, Marco Carrera, Natalie GauthierMeteorological Research DivisionEnvironment Canada
Kari Luojus and the GlobSnow SWE team at FMI
Outline1. Strengths and weaknesses of the
GlobSnow SWE record for modeling applications
2. Use of GlobSnow SWE data for modeling applications:
• Evaluation of coupled climate model simulations
• Land surface initialization – CanSIPS
• Land surface data assimilation - CaLDAS
The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network seeks to advance seasonal to multidecadal prediction of Arctic sea ice and snow in Canada’s sub-Arctic, alpine, and seasonally snow covered regions. It will also quantify and exploit, for prediction purposes, the role that Northern Hemisphere snow and sea ice processes play in climate variability and change.
Contextwww.cansise.ca
The GlobSnow Data Record and Modeling Applications• By utilizing climate station observations of snow depth, the GlobSnow SWE record has
better retrieval performance and uncertainty characterization compared to standalone passive microwave products.
• NWP and climate modeling applications have very different requirements:-best instantaneous retrieval (NWP) versus homogeneous time series (climate)
-latency: near real time versus re-processed archives
-use of the GlobSnow processor system versus final products
-For NWP applications new analyses must be shown to be superior to existing operational schemes
-For climate applications new products can make an immediate contribution to efforts to observationally characterize SWE variability and trends
• For Hemispheric modeling applications, the alpine mask is problematic.
Impact of Radiometer Derived Information
Difference between final assimilated SWE and background SWE from interpolated synoptic weather station data.
• The impact of climate station snow depth observations is high
050
100150200250300350400
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008Stat
ions
Rep
ortin
g Sn
ow D
epth
•CMC and GlobSnow datasets utilize climate station observations of snow depth.
•The impact of variability in the number of climate stations on time series homogeneity remains to be fully quantified.
•The mean number of stations reporting through the month of April varies by +/- 70 across Eurasia, and +/- 40 across North America.
Consistency of Climate Station Observations
Mean (with max/min) of number of Arctic stations reporting snow depth within April.
Eurasia
050
100150200250300350400
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008Stat
ions
Rep
ortin
g Sn
ow D
epth
North America
Mean annual maximum SWE (1998/99 – 2009/10) from CMC (left), GlobSnow (middle), and merged dataset (right).
Filling in the GlobSnow Mountain Mask
A simple GlobSnow + CMC merging procedure was used:In areas where information was available in both datasets, the SWE estimates were averaged; the CMC SWE estimates were retained in areas masked in the GlobSnow product
CMC+GlobSnow (mm)
10 model avg (mm)
10 model avg bias (mm)
CMIP5 Simulated vs. Observed Arctic Snow Water Equivalent
• Models overestimate SWEmax over Arctic land areas/high elevation regions• The multi-model ensemble agrees more closely with the observed data than any
individual model
Annual maximum monthly SWE (SWEmax)
Large Ensemble Experiment
Simulated variability and trends in Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover analyzed in large ensembles of climate integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model.
Two 40-member ensembles driven by historical radiative forcings over the period 1981-2010.1. coupled to a dynamical ocean2. observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
Mudryk et al Clim Dyn in press
Annual cycle of snow cover extent (SCE; NOAA snow chart CDR and snow water equivalent (SWE; GlobSnow) for NH (black), NA (red), and EUR (blue). Ensemble mean coupled
experiment (solid), ensemble mean uncoupled experiment (dotted).
Snow Climatology and Variability: CCSM4 Simulations vs. Observations
Mudryk et al Clim Dyn in press
Snow Water Equivalent Trends:CCSM4 Simulations vs. Observations
CoupledUncoupledObservations
Mudryk et al Clim Dyn in press
Snow Water Equivalent Trends:CCSM4 Simulations vs. Observations
Observations identify predominantly negative trends, particularly for NA
Simulations identify positive winter and spring SWE trends over much of the Arctic.
Mudryk et al Clim Dyn in press
Simulated Snowfall Trends
Positive Arctic SWE trends are the result of positive OND and JFM snowfall trends which are very difficult to verify with observations.
Mudryk et al Clim Dyn in press
Evaluation of Snow Initial Conditions in Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) How close are initial conditions to observations of SWE?
HindcastsAssimilation Runs
Historical Runsfreely running CanCM3\CanCM4
ObservationsGlobSnow (station + PMW)MERRA (reanalysis)CMC (station + snow model)…and others
1 year durationserve as initial conditions for hindcasts
assimilate observed T, u, v, q, SST, sea ice
begin on 1st of month
Springtime Bias in SWE Initial Conditions
• Generally too much NH SWE from February to May in CanCM3/CanCM4 assimilation run climatologies. Somewhat reduced in CanCM4 consistent with differences in temperature biases.
• Mean drift of hindcasts from assimilation runs?
Springtime Bias in SWE Initial Conditions
How quickly do hindcasts drift from initial conditions to model climatology?
HindcastsAssimilation Runs
Historical Runsfreely running CanCM3\CanCM4
ObservationsGlobSnow (station + PMW)MERRA (reanalysis)CMC (station + snow model)…and others
1 year durationserve as initial conditions for hindcasts
assimilate observed T, u, v, q, SST, sea ice
begin on 1st of month
Evaluation of Snow Initial Conditions in Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
Mean Drift of Hindcasts from Assimilation Runs
Currently OP: OI assimilation of snow depth surface observations (Brasnett 1999)
Now being implemented: Ensemble OI w/ Canadian Land Data Assimilation System
Tested: Assimilation of GlobSnow products (CaLDAS)
Progress in the Assimilation of GlobSnow SWE in the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System
The Canada Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS)
LANDMODEL(SPS)
OBS
ASSIMILATIONEnKF + EnOI
xb
y
EnKFxa = xb+ K { y – H(xb) }
K = BHT ( HBHT+R)-1
with
CaLDASIN OUT
Ancillary land surface data
Atmospheric forcing
Observations
Surface Temperature
Soil moistureSnow depth or
SWE
Vegetation*Screen-level (T, Td)Surface stations snow depthL-band passive (SMOS, SMAP)Microwave SWE (AMSR-E)*Optical / IR (MODIS, VIIRS)Combined products (GlobSnow)
T, q, U, V, Pr, SW, LW
Orography, vegetation, soils, water fraction, ...
Analyses of…
*) not done yet…
Open Loop
CaLDAS-GS
OBS
Mean snow depth
Bias
STDE
GlobSnow
(CAREFUL… GlobSnow experiments not leave-one-out)
GlobSnow-2 in CaLDAS
• Implementing the GlobSnow SWE operator at CMC has proven challenging
• Direct assimilation of microwave Tbs (not retrievals) is the next step
• First guess from snow model and MW emission model
• Snow model being improved (part of new land surface scheme at EC)
• Utilize microwave forward modeling with HUT as in the GlobSnow retrieval
Moving Forward…
• NWP and climate modeling applications have different requirements for observational snow products
• The development and validation of new SWE products (i.e. GlobSnow) can have an immediate impact on seasonal to multi-decadal model evaluations by adding a new observational ‘member’ to multi-dataset time series.
– GlobSnow v2.0 used to evaluate CMIP5 historical simulations, large ensemble member experiments, and initial conditions for seasonal forecasting
• Greater implementation and validation challenges are a reality for NWP applications.
Conclusions
Questions?
CMIP5 Simulated vs. GlobSnow Arctic Snow Water Equivalent
January April