Modeling and Simulation Ch 2

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    CHAPTER TWO

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    MODELING FUNDAMENTALS

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    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Every model we have ever created is wrong, as is

    every model you will ever build.

    CHAPTER TWO

    Model Fundamentals

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    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Being wrong is part of the nature of a model. The world

    that we model is much richer, much more complex,

    and much stranger than the models that we build of it.

    CHAPTER TWO

    Model Fundamentals

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    Model Fundamentals

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    statistician George Box said it best:

    All models are wrong. Some models are useful.

    Sometimes people discuss whether a model is right or

    wrong, but that discussion is pointless since all models

    are wrong. Instead people should discuss whether the

    model is useful.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Model Fidelity

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    The fidelity of a model is a measure of how closely the

    model approximates the real world.

    Fidelity is an inverse measure of wrongness:

    a high-fidelity model is less wrong than a low-fidelity

    model.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Model Fidelity

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Fidelity is all about shades of gray.

    A model can be a sort of accurate reflection of reality

    (for its purpose), and another higher-fidelity model can

    be more accurate.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Model Validity

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    A model is valid if it meets all the constraints, and it is

    invalid otherwise.

    Validity is a property of the model itself. Does the

    model meet the constraints? Then it is a valid model.

    All models have these two qualities: validity and

    fidelity.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Classical business models

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    organizational chart

    The org chart focuses on the employees and the

    reporting relationships.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Organizational chart

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Classical business models

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Balance sheet

    The financial statements focus on how much moneythe restaurants are earning and what financial assets

    and liabilities they have. The two business models

    serve different purposes, and they are complementary.

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Balance sheet

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Recently four newer business models have become

    important, models that complement the classic models.

    Instead the four new models focus on some different

    parts of the complex reality of business.

    These new models open up some new views ofbusiness new views for new purposes.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    The four new models are business motivation models,

    business organization models, business process

    models, and business rule models.

    Each of these four kinds of models is a model

    discipline.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    A model discipline includes a set of constraints fordetermining whether a model is valid. The constraints

    are different from one model discipline to another.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Each model discipline has a different focus, differentquestions that it can answer, and different analyses

    that it supports.

    When modeling a business, you usually build modelsin several different model disciplines, to look at the

    business from different angles.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    The four model disciplines also complement the

    classic accounting and organizational disciplines.

    If you wait long enough, everything important

    eventually shows up in the accounting, but sometimes

    not until it is too late to fix.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    example

    a restaurant can have good books this year but beslow to seat and serve guests. This will lead to

    customer dissatisfaction and lower demand.

    Accounting will show this next year, as the revenues

    decline.

    A business process model of how people are seated

    and served will illuminate the problem today.

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    Four new model disciplines

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    example

    a restaurant can have good books this year but beslow to seat and serve guests. This will lead to

    customer dissatisfaction and lower demand.

    Accounting will show this next year, as the revenues

    decline.

    A business process model of how people are seated

    and served will illuminate the problem today.

    Feedbackward controlling vs. feedforward controlling

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    model discipline maturity

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Accounting is mature, with a long history and hundredsof thousands of professional practitioners around the

    world, accountants who focus their efforts on creating

    and interpreting accounting models.

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    model discipline maturity

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Business process modeling is not mature enough yet.Until then, we must content ourselves with degrees of

    fidelity,

    without any professional consensus about how much

    fidelity is enough. Until consensus is achieved we mustrely on our own judgments.

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    model usefullness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    To be useful, a model must have enough fidelity for the

    intended purpose.

    But fidelity alone is not sufficient. Models are read and

    interpreted by people, sometimes by the same people

    who built the model, and usually by others as well.

    An overly large model is not useful; it cannot be

    comprehended, and so the purpose of the model will

    not be achieved.

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    model usefullness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    The following diagram shows strategy alternatives for

    Adelina restaurant and the consequences of the

    different alternatives.

    There are 14 model elements in and 18 associations

    among these model elements. If a model is too big and

    complex to be understood, it will be ignored.

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    model usefullness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

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    model usefullness

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    CHAPTER TWO

    Beginning modelers often build models that are too bigand

    too complex; they often ignore the limits of human

    comprehension.

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    model usefullness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    How big is too big?A useful rule of thumb is that a model should have no

    more than nine elements. Nine is about how many

    things a typical person can keep in her head on a good

    day. Beyond nine, people often get confused. And ifthe model you built confuses the people who read it,

    the fault is yours, not theirs. Your model is not easy to

    understand.

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Attractive models are easier to understand and morereadily accepted than ugly models. Attractive models

    are therefore more useful.

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    The following example shows the activities performedby a server, a bartender, and a cook in taking drink and

    dinner

    orders in a restaurant, preparing them, and serving

    them.This is a valid business process model, and it is simple

    enough, but it is ugly.

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    the following example shows the same businessprocess model after a makeover; it has the same

    modeling elements

    and flows, but they are arranged in a manner that is

    visually appealing.

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    The unconscious emotional response to an attractivemodel has another effect: It makes the model more

    persuasive. As described in Chapter 1, models are not

    just used for communication. They are also used for

    persuasion.

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    Modeling tools

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Some models use special-purpose modeling tools thatexist just for creating business models. Other modelers

    use general-purpose diagram drawing tools (such as

    Microsoft

    Visio) that are used both for creating business

    models and for many other diagramming uses.

    Both provide functionality to make models attractive:

    fonts, colors, and model element layout.

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    Modeling tools

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Visio offers no special support for recording the typicalduration of an activity or for noting the sub-process

    behind

    an activity. Visio understands the activity as a

    rectangle in a drawing, not as an activity in a businessprocess.

    The special-purpose modeling tools are better for

    business modeling. These tools understand business

    activities as activities, not as rectangles.

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    Modeling tools

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Special-purpose modeling tools also make it easier to

    build valid models.

    Many tools support business process simulation,

    allowing you to experiment with prospective business

    processes to see what happens. Some tools support

    direct execution in a business process engine, allowing

    you to turn your business process model intoexecutable workflow.

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    Application interface and publication

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Business modelers work with a modeling tool to create

    models and analyze the models they create. But every

    model built by a modeler will be consumed by others.

    These consumers of business models do not have any

    modeling tools loaded on their desktops.

    To make models accessible to this wider audience,

    many of the business modeling tools have publication

    functionality.

    A model can be published to a variety of accessible

    formats: HTML, PDF, Microsoft Word

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Sometimes it is difficult to understand the implications

    of a business model, particularly complex business

    models and models that have many interacting

    elements.

    Simulation is a technique for running a model to get a

    deeper understanding. Many business modeling tools

    support simulation. A model that simulates is more

    useful than one that does not.

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    what is simulation, really?

    First, simulations are based on models. Within SimCity

    is a model of a city: houses, neighborhoods, roads, rail,

    parks, and malls and the

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    First, simulations are based on models. Within SimCity

    is a model of a city: houses, neighborhoods, roads,

    rail, parks, and malls and the interactions of people

    who live in those houses, travel on those roads and

    trains, play in those parks, and shop in those malls.

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Second, a simulation shows how a model behaves over

    time. Things happen in SimCity over time: houses are

    built, existing roads become congested, crimes arecommitted, and neighborhoods improve or slide in

    disrepute.

    These changes are not scripted; the decline of aneighborhood in SimCity is not preordained by the

    application. Rather, things happen the way they do

    because of the gradual interaction of all the elements of

    the city model over time.

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    Some business simulations are also playable, like

    SimCity.

    But most business simulations are not playable. They

    are simulated purely for understanding behavioral

    results of a new process or strategic environment.

    Simulation becomes another method of analysis.

    Usually many different simulation runs will be made of anon-playable simulation, to explore a space of

    possibilities, and the results will be summarized in

    graphs or statistics.

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    For example, you might create a business process

    model of how Portia customers experience the

    restaurant. A customer arrives, perhaps waits for atable, is seated, orders a meal, pays, and departs. Of

    course, the customers quality of experience will be

    affected by the food, but it will also be affected by

    delays and customer service. Simulating the processmodel will reveal where delays are present and allow us

    to experiment with alternative techniquesmore

    servers, fewer reservations, etc.to reduce those

    delays.

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    Simulation

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    No one is playing this Portia simulation.

    Rather, this non-playable simulation allows us to better

    analyze and understand the process.

    C A O

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    In examining a model, its always useful to ask about

    the purpose of individual model elements. Why do we

    enforce this rule? Why do we perform this businessprocess task?

    The answers to the questions of purpose are usually

    model elements in other models. We enforce this rulebecause of a particular strategy we are working.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Traceability is connecting model elements between

    models, explaining a model element in one model by

    referring to a model element in another.

    Traceability answers whyquestionsquestions

    about rationale, purpose, and intent. Some business

    modeling tools support traceability.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    At fast-food restaurants, takeout restaurants,

    and many other places, food and beverages

    are ordered together.

    Why do the servers at our restaurant work first

    on the drinks and only then on the food?

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    model attractiveness

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    One reason is that customers will drink more if

    they are served drinks first, and drinks are

    high-margin items for the restaurant.

    Another reason is that at more sophisticated

    restaurants, taking the drink order and dinnerorder at the same time is considered to be

    rushing the customer and is inconsistent with a

    high-end image.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    the following figure shows part of the restaurants

    motivation modelthe goals that the restaurant are

    trying to achieve and how it is trying to achieve thosegoals.

    Asking for drink orders first is a tactic, a short-term

    course of action that is meant to channel effort towardobjectives or goals.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Of course, this is only a small example. A more

    complete motivation model for our restaurant would

    include many more tactics, objectives, and goals aswell as other motivation model elements such as

    influencers and threats.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    The activities of a business process model are

    connected to the tactics, objectives, and goals of a

    business motivation model through tracelinks.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr. Rami Gharaibeh

    Note that tracelinks are not relationships between

    whole models. We are not tracing the whole business

    process model to the whole business motivationmodel.

    Rather, we are tracing two individual elements of the

    business process model to a single element in themotivation model. We are not answering broad

    questions about the purpose of the business process

    model. Instead we are answering narrow questions

    about the purpose of serving drinks first.

    CHAPTER TWO

    CHAPTER TWO

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    Traceability

    Dr Rami Gharaibeh

    Traceability is useful for understanding the impact of a

    change. If we change this tactic, what activities must

    be changed? By examining the tracelinks that pointfrom activities to the tactic, we can determine which

    ones are affected. With the right tracelinks in place, we

    can continue our traceability walk, looking at which

    systems support the activities that are affected by the

    changed tactic.

    CHAPTER TWO