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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive
Faculty and Researcher Publications Faculty and Researcher Publications
2012-07
Modeling and Evaluating Indigenous
Populations' Trust in Government
Fricker, Ronald D., Jr.
Contributed paper, with LCDR W. Kulzy: "Modeling and Evaluating Indigeneous Populations'
Trust in Government," 2nd International Conference on Cross-cultural Decision Making, San
Francisco, CA, July 2012.
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/38736
Modeling and Evaluating Indigenous Populations’
Trust in Government
LCDR W. W. Kulzy III Prof. Ronald D. Fricker, Jr.
LT Jon Negaard Dr. Adam Schilling
July 25, 2012
1
Objective
• Assess whether “Modeling Essential Services, Security, Employment, and Economics” (MESSEE) useful/appropriate for modeling population’s trust in government
2
Gov't trust = f (Essential Services, Security, Employment, and Economics)
Methodology
3
2010 Raw Data Create Analytical Database
Derive Factors
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
Fit MESSEE Models
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
4
2010 Raw Data
• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3
Create Analytical Database
Derive Factors
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
Fit MESSEE Models
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
Methodology
5
2010 Raw Data
• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3
Create Analytical Database
Derive Factors
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
Fit MESSEE Models
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
Methodology
Create Analytical Database
• Recode ordinal (Likert scale) responses • Strongly positive to strongly negative à 2 to -2
• Impute missing data • Respondent’s data becomes unusable with one
missing response • 6% of responses are missing • Casewise deletion: Delete respondent if missing any answer
ü Imputing 6% of the data saves 60% of the respondents!
• Methodology: nearest neighbor hot-deck imputation
6
7
2010 Raw Data
• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3
Create Analytical Database
• Clean • Recode • Impute
Derive Factors
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
Fit MESSEE Models
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
Methodology
• A statistical method to derive unobserved (latent) variables from observed, correlated data – Idea is combinations of survey questions represent
some complex construct not directly observable – At the very least, a useful data reduction mechanism
• Graphically:
A Bit About Factor Analysis
8
Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…
Country #2 Cont…
Country #3 Cont..
Gov
erna
nce
Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals
Secu
rity
Con
cern
s
External External External
Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy
Borders
Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers
Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism
Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty
Opi
nion
s of…
Non-Western countries West./non-Western country
West/non-Western cntry
Rel
igio
n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries
Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values
U.S
.
Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation
Tole
ranc
e
General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on
Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance
Daily life Daily life Daily Life
Chi
na
Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided
China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Ser
v
Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility
Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water
Roads Roads Current
Free
dom
s
Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West
Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national
The Final Factors
Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…
Country #2 Cont…
Country #3 Cont..
Gov
erna
nce
Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals
Secu
rity
Con
cern
s
External External External
Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy
Borders
Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers
Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism
Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty
Opi
nion
s of…
Non-Western countries West./non-Western country
West/non-Western cntry
Rel
igio
n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries
Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values
U.S
.
Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation
Tole
ranc
e
General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on
Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance
Daily life Daily life Daily Life
Chi
na
Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided
China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Ser
v
Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility
Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water
Roads Roads Current
Free
dom
s
Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West
Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national
The Final Factors
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Ser
vice
s Country #1 Country #2 Country #3
Social & Essential Service
Social & Essential Service
Water
Roads Roads
Electricity Electricity
Current
Progress
Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…
Country #2 Cont…
Country #3 Cont..
Gov
erna
nce
Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals
Secu
rity
Con
cern
s
External External External
Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy
Borders
Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers
Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism
Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty
Opi
nion
s of…
Non-Western countries West./non-Western country
West/non-Western cntry
Rel
igio
n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries
Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values
U.S
.
Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation
Tole
ranc
e
General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on
Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance
Daily life Daily life Daily Life
Chi
na
Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided
China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Ser
v
Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility
Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water
Roads Roads Current
Free
dom
s
Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West
Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national
The Final Factors
12
2010 Raw Data
• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3
Create Analytical Database
• Clean • Recode • Impute
Derive Factors • Determine number of
factors • Conduct factor analysis
and interpret results
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
• Ensure factors not sensitive to recoding and imputation choices
Fit MESSEE Models • Determine appropriate
dependant variable to determine gov’t support
• Linear model
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
Methodology
MESSEE Model Dependent Variable
13
Trust in Government
Agencies
Q49na- Trust at all in NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY
Q49pp- Trust at all in POLITICAL
PARTIES
Q49af- Trust at all in ARMED
FORCES
Q49cj- Trust at all in COURTS AND JUDGES
Q49lp- Trust at all in LOCAL
POLICE
Q49lg- Trust at all in LOCAL
GOVERNMENT
Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…
Country #2 Cont…
Country #3 Cont..
Gov
erna
nce
Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals
Secu
rity
Con
cern
s
External External External
Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy
Borders
Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers
Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism
Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty
Opi
nion
s of…
Non-Western countries West./non-Western country
West/non-Western cntry
Rel
igio
n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries
Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values
U.S
.
Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation
Tole
ranc
e
General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on
Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance
Daily life Daily life Daily Life
Chi
na
Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided
China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Ser
v
Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility
Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water
Roads Roads Current
Free
dom
s
Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West
Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national
Statistically Significant Factors for Country #1
15
2010 Raw Data
• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3
Create Analytical Database
• Clean • Recode • Impute
Derive Factors • Determine number of
factors • Conduct factor analysis
and interpret results
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses
• Ensure factors not sensitive to recoding and imputation choices
Fit MESSEE Models • Determine Appropriate
dependant variable to determine gov’t support
Interpret Results, Make Conclusions
Methodology
Conclusions
• Factor analysis provides useful data reduction Ø 140 questions reduced to about 20 factors Ø Factors provide insight into each country’s culture and
customs
• MESSEE model Ø MESSEE model attributes too limited and too rigid Ø Reasonable start, but can be improved upon
• Broader models (not described here) give fits with
16
R2 ≈ 0.4