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January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page1
ModelingAnalysisofNavajoReservoirOperationsProposedModificationofAvailableWaterCalculationforDeterminingSpringPeakReleasesontheSanJuanRiver
1.0 Introduction
Reclamation has proposed a modification of the calculation used to determine spring peak release operations at Navajo Dam. To support this proposal, Reclamation has conducted extensive hydrologic modeling with the purpose of:
Understanding the recent changes in San Juan River Basin hydrology and its effect on Navajo Operations.
Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the 1999 Flow Recommendations as written.
Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the Proposed Method by SJRIP (San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program) and Reclamation.
Comparing the two methods and assessing changes in overall release volumes and timing, on an annual basis. Assessing the difference in resulting downstream river flows.
Aid workshop participants and the SJRIP in making technical decisions for the Proposal’s implementation.
2.0 Terminology
Terminology used in this report is shown below and was used for convenience in this report. Some terms used here may not apply to other outside purposes.
Base Flow: Average flows through the critical habitat area along the San Juan River (from Farmington, New Mexico to Lake Powell in Utah).
Daily Operations Model: Reclamation’s hydrologic model of the San Juan River Basin for daily management and operation of the reservoirs within the basin.
EOWYST: End of water year storage target. This is the reservoir storage that the reservoir will be operated to begin and end each water year at, dependent on forecasting accuracy and hydrologic availability. The equivalent reservoir elevation is used interchangeably with storage in this discussion and is also referred to as the EOWYST.
Modified Daily Operations Model: The Daily Operations Model, modified to test the Proposed Method.
NIIP: Navajo Indian Irrigation Project
Operational Spill: A planned water released through the outlet works that is in excess of the sum of the spring peak release volume and the release required to maintain the minimum target baseflow.
Original Method: The method of determining available water and the spring peak release using the original 1999 Flow Recommendations.
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Proposed Method: The method of determining available water and the spring peak release using the proposed method by the SJRIP and Reclamation.
SPR: Spring Peak Release
TBF: Target Base Flow. The SJRIP recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area along the San Juan River (from Farmington, New Mexico to Lake Powell in Utah). This is calculated as a weekly average of the minimum of the lower 3 of 4 USGS gages. Uncontrolled Spill: Use of the uncontrolled spillway. An undesirable condition. WY: Water Year. A 12 month period ending September 30 of the designated water year.
3.0 Navajo Inflow Hydrology
The inflow into Navajo Reservoir has decreased significantly in recent years. While the hydrology used to
develop the Flow Recommendations and the Navajo Biologic Opinion include the wet decade of the
1980’s and pre‐dam conditions, Navajo has often received below average inflow since 1999, when the
Flow Recommendations were finalized. Forecasts in the basin and across the southwest indicate the
likelihood of continued below average hydrology in the future.
Though the SJRIP Flow Recommendations have only been in place since 1999, the hydrology used in the
analyses consists of observed daily inflow data into Navajo Reservoir for water years (WY) 1971 through
2013. An additional subset of the last 15 years (since 1999) was analyzed because of its significance
both hydrologically and programmatically.
Figure 1 is a plot of annual water year inflows into Navajo Reservoir. The median inflow is shown for the
entire 42‐year record (1971‐2013), as well as for the more recent, and much drier, 15‐years of record
(1999‐2013).
The more recent range of hydrologic data, from 1999‐2013, had a median inflow into Navajo of 690,000
af/year annually, compared with 850,000 af annually since 1971. The repeated years of lower hydrology
over the last decade has not allowed the reservoir to adequately recover from large spring releases, and
the risk of shortage to users has increased. It is important to consider the more recent subset of
hydrologic data because climatologic forecasts indicate that this dry pattern of hydrology is likely to
continue. Though not represented in this study, WY2014 was yet another dry year for the San Juan
River Basin, only receiving slightly more inflow into the reservoir than 2013.
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Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013).
4.0 Comparison of Original and Proposed Methodologies
4.1 Original Method: 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations for determining Available Water and SPRs
The 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations Chapter 8 gives detailed guidance on recommended hydrograph conditions in the San Juan River and recommended Reservoir Operating Rules that are designed to achieve these hydrograph conditions.
The Recommended Reservoir Operating Rules use a Decision Tree to determine the appropriate SPR for each year, based on forecast inflow and releases. The volume of water that is used to walk through this decision tree is called the Available Water. Under the Original Method, the Available Water is calculated using the following equation:
In this equation, t = time of calculation, TBF = target base flows, NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation project. Carryover storage is based on a Level of Development in the basin, as shown in Table 8.4 (page 8‐13) of the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations
Simply stated, this equation states that the current storage in the reservoir, plus the forecast inflow, minus the forecast releases and evaporation, minus diversions to NIIP, minus a carryover storage volume, is the volume of water available for a SPR this year.
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The Carryover Storage is based on the Level of Development in the basin, as described in Table 8.4 of the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations. The Level of Development is the minimum carryover necessary that the reservoir would need in storage in order to meet demands for one additional year.
The Available Water is then walked through the Decision Tree (Figure 2). The Decision Tree flow chart uses a combination of Available Water, the occurrence of perturbations (based on the number of storm‐event days occurring over the previous year), the possibility of spill, and the size and frequency of SPRs in recent years. If appropriate, the Decision Tree may result in a recommendation that the SPR be reduced or skipped, even when there is sufficient Available Water, with the goal of increasing storage in the reservoir for a potentially larger SPR the following year.
The volumes in Figure 2 correspond to specific hydrographs that range from 1‐week at 5,000 cfs to a full hydrograph that lasts for a month. (It will later be important to note that slight modifications have been made by the SJRIP to these hydrographs since the original report, including a reduced ramping rate and base release volume, resulting in slightly different volumes than those represented in Figure 2.)
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Figure 2. Flow chart of Navajo Dam operating rules for a 5,000 cfs peak release. From 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations.
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4.2 Proposed Method: Reclamation and SJRIP’s proposal for determining Available Water and SPRs
Reclamation’s proposal involves a slight modification to the Available Water calculation that is currently in the Flow Recommendations. This modification is a reflection of the impact recent hydrology has had on the basin, reservoir supply, and shortage risk, and is an attempt to provide a level of insurance against the threat of shortages to the water supply under expected future conditions. Having this insurance against shortage will increase the likelihood that the target base flows can be met, even in a sustained and serious drought.
Rather than using a carryover storage that represents a certain level of development in the basin, as laid out in Table 8.4 of the Flow Recommendations, Reclamation is suggesting using an annual End of Water Year Storage Target (EOWYST).
The EOWYST is the reservoir storage target on September 30th, which is the conclusion of each water year. If the reservoir is operated to begin and end each water year at the same elevation, then operations are based on the year‐to‐year hydrology, rather than speculating on the hydrology of future years. This method is also more consistent with the accuracy of long‐term water supply forecasts, which typically have a sharp decline in forecast skill beyond a few months.
With this change, the Available Water Calculation becomes:
In this equation, t = time of calculation, TBF = target base flows, NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation project, EOWYST = End of Water Year Storage Target.
The new Available Water calculation would be used in the Decision Tree to determine the appropriate SPR for the year. However, this new method negates the need to look back and reduce or skip SPRs in certain years, as suggested in the Decision Tree. These actions are designed to save up water for a larger release in the following year. By utilizing an EOWYST, and therefore operating the reservoir on an annual basis, the need for such predictive actions is unnecessary. This method mimics the actual annual hydrologic conditions in the basin.
Questions posed for hydrologic modeling
What is the difference between the Original and Proposed methods?
How will Navajo’s releases change, both the SPR, and the base flow release?
Will this increase or decrease the overall release from the reservoir? By how much?
How would release timing change?
Are the flow recommendations more likely or less likely to be met with the Proposed Method?
What affect do different EOWYST’s have on the Available Water calculation?
What affect do different EOWYST’s have on release type and timing?
What would be the most conservative EOWYST with regard to the possibility of a multi‐year drought or shortage?
Or conversely, with regard to spill?
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5.0 Description of Model and Rules
Reclamation’s San Juan River Basin Daily Operations Model (Daily Operations Model) was used as the basis for the hydrologic modeling effort. The Daily Operations Model includes the entire San Juan River Basin, including upper basin reservoirs and operations, and high elevation stream gages (Figure 3). It is used in forecasting operations of Navajo and resulting river flows on a day‐to‐day basis and is used in Reclamation’s 24‐month study. The model was altered and updated with new inputs and rules for the purposes of testing the Proposed Method and comparing it with the Original Method from an operational standpoint.
Figure 3. Daily Operations Model for the San Juan River Basin used for realtime daily forecasting and operations.
For this modeling effort, the Daily Operations Model was modified to only include Navajo Reservoir, the
Animas River, and the San Juan River from the release point at Navajo to its confluence with the Animas
River, and downstream through the critical habitat reach (Figure 4). As such it is referred to as the
“Modified Daily Operations Model”.
Appendix B contains a full printout of the Riverware Model rulesets and a copy of the model will be provided upon request.
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Figure 4. Modified Daily Operations Model used for comparisons in daily operation between Original Method and
Proposed Method.
Inputs to the Modified Daily Operations Model include the following
a) Flows: Observed historic flow in the Animas River, historic observed inflow into Navajo.
b) Losses: Observed diversions from NIIP for 2012 were used for each year under the Original
and Proposed Methods. The historic 75% exceedance statistical diversion in the river was
used, based on river flow and time of year. The 75% exceedance was chosen to be
conservative, and to align more closely with higher water user take and drier conditions.
c) EOWYST: Each model run used a single EOWYST for all years. This was the main parameter
varied with each model run for comparison purposes. The EOWYST ranged from 6000 ft to
6080 ft in the modeling runs. The reservoir was modeled to end each water year at the
designated EOWYST.
d) SPRs: SPR Tables are based on the hydrographs described in the 1999 Flow
Recommendations. The prescribed SPRs include 3 day ramps up and down (as approved by
the SJRIP), except in the case of the Full Hydrograph, which has its original full ramps. The
hydrograph volumes are as follows (total volume including base):
a. 1‐week at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 90,843 af
b. 2‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 150,347 af
c. 3‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 229,686 af
d. Full Hydrograph, 3‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with full ramps: 418,512 af
The rules and priority order in the Modified Daily Operations Model follow the SJRIP Recommended Reservoir Operating Rules (1999 Flow Recommendations, Chapter 8) except where noted. Riverware will fire the rules at each time step in the order specified. An exhaustive list of the rules is provided in Appendix B. The rules pertinent to this discussion, listed in priority, are described below.
1. Set release from Navajo to 350 cfs (2006 Reclamation’s ROD, goal minimum release). 2. Increase the release, if necessary, to meet the minimum TBF (Minimum TBF is 500 cfs). 3. Determine what volume of water over the EOWYST will be left at the end of the water year.
This is the volume available for a SPR. 4. Choose the maximum possible SPR from the Decision Tree and SPR tables based on this
Available Water volume.
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5. After SPR inserted, remaining available water evacuated through Operational Spill procedures in the following order:
a. Adding a Nose to the SPR i. If the SPR chosen is a Full Hydrograph, evacuate as much remaining Available
Water as possible by first adding a nose to the SPR, and extending it as far forward as March 1st.
ii. If the SPR chosen was less than a Full Hydrograph, do not add a nose, and skip to option b.
b. Increase the Target Baseflow. The baseflow will be increased up to a maximum of 1,000 cfs.
c. Conduct a Fall Spike. A fall spike (high magnitude, short duration) may be released after September 1st.
(Note that in the 1999 Flow Recommendations, the order of priority for increasing the target baseflow and conducting a fall spike are reversed. However, due to operational safety considerations, Reclamation typically would increase the target baseflow first to keep the reservoir at a safe level, as fall spike season does not begin until well into monsoon season.)
The model rules operate Navajo Reservoir releases based on meeting the current SJRIP target base flows. Navajo releases make up the difference in flow that the Animas River cannot provide. Navajo has the ability to release between 250 cfs and 5,000 cfs. The model rules release the minimum necessary to meet the 500 cfs target base flow. When the base flow exceeds 1000 cfs, the release is reduced by the amount necessary to stay within the target range, down to a minimum release.
Modified Daily Operations Model limitations:
a. No Animas Peak Timing b. Forecasting error cannot be represented when using known values c. Weekend changes, maintenance, etc. cannot be represented d. Target Baseflow is based on Four Corners gage, not 3‐gage average e. Losses are based on historic probabilities, not water rights. f. This is not the baseline model! This is the realtime operations model, used to show
comparisons between the two methods.
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6.0 Model Runs, Output and Analysis
In this section the results of the modeling analyses described in Section 5 will be presented and discussed. Appendix A contains complete tabulated output from the modeling.
6.1 Historic Re‐operation Comparison from 1971‐2013
A reoperation of Navajo Reservoir for 1971‐2013 was performed to determine the quantity of water that would be available for SPRs, had the reservoir been operated under the Original Method and under the Proposed Method.
Within the modeling of the Proposed Method, a range of EOWYST’s were modeled to show the advantages and disadvantages of each. For comparison, where applicable, the Original Method was modeled alongside the Proposed Method. The modeling effort was also divided into two hydrology subsets‐ 1971‐2013 (42 years), and the much drier and more recent subset of 1999‐2013 (15 years).
The resulting operations are discussed by parameter below. Each parameter is discussed in terms of the total volume for the model run. This is to simplify discussion of the effects of varying the EOWYST and comparisons to the Original Method, where applicable. For a breakdown of the results by water year, see Appendix A.
Total Annual Available Water
Total available water is simple result of the Available Water calculation. This number under the Proposed Method should remain relatively steady for each EOWYST, the only difference being in the evaporation. The total 42‐year volume ranged from 17,895,000 af for the highest EOWYST to 18,740,000 af for the lowest EOWYST, a difference of only 4%. This variance is due to the difference in reservoir evaporation, which varies with open surface area.
However, this Total Available Water number is not wholly applicable on its own. Because this number does not take into effect the possibility of shortage or spill, it can be misleading when trying to decide on an appropriate EOWYST. The Total Annual Available Water is useful in demonstrating how overall hydrology and release from the reservoir will not change with EOWYST, even though the timing and type of release will be refined in later discussion.
Because the Total Available Water calculation under the Original Method uses Level of Development rather than the EOWYST, it cannot be compared here. However, products of the Available Water calculation under the Original and Proposed Methods (SPR volumes, Spill and Shortage volumes, etc) will be compared and discussed in the following pages.
SPR Volume
The total SPR volume similarly changes only 4% from the highest EOWYST (9,910,000 af) to the lowest EOWYST (10,262,000 af). Again, this difference is likely due to the difference in evaporation. Using the Original Method, the total SPR is 800,000 af less than the Proposed Method.
Because looking at SPR volumes can be less than intuitive, the SPRs were also classified by “rank”. A 1‐week SPR was given a value of 1. A 2‐week SPR was given a value of 2. A 3‐week SPR was given a value of 3, and a full SPR was given a value of 4. If there was no SPR chosen, it was given a value of 0. (Note, however, that under the Proposed Method, just because there was not enough volume for a SPR, there
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still may have been some volume available for augmentation efforts that would have been available.) These “ranks” were totaled for the entire 1971‐2013 record and compared by EOWYST.
The resulting rank totaled 100 for the highest EOWYST to 104 for the lowest EOWYST. The higher EOWYSTs had lower overall rank (again, we look to evaporation as the main difference). The Original Method, which followed the Decision Tree (including “look back years”) resulted in a total rank of 92. Figure 5 compares the SPRs calculated under the Original and Proposed Methods for comparison.
Figure 5. SPRs under Original and Proposed Method.
(Note that in Figure 5, the Actual SPR released cannot be directly compared to the modeling runs because of the several modeling caveats listed in Section 5. Additionally, the modeling runs use NIIP’s 2012 diversion for each year under both Original and Proposed Methods, as well as a typical 75% exceedance probability loss through the river reach. This loss is based on a combination of time of year and river flows resulting from the modeled operations.)
Figure 6 shows the frequency of each type of release under the Original and Proposed Methods. Under the Proposed Method, we see more long‐duration releases, and fewer 1‐week releases. Under the Proposed Method, we have a higher number of “0” releases (no release), however, as mentioned before, under the Proposed Method some volume may still be available and released for habitat purposes.
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Figure 6. Distribution shows an increase in high duration SPR's and decrease in 1‐week SPR's with proposed method. Also an increase in 0‐release years, but many of these 0‐release years would have some volume of release available for other purposes.
Operational Spill
Because the aim of setting an EOWYST is to operate the reservoir to end at a certain level each year, any Available Water remaining after the SPR was calculated was evacuated through Operational Spill. From highest to lowest EOWYST, the difference in total Operational Spill volume remained 4% due to evaporation. The Original Method resulted in an average of 900,000 af less Operational spill over the course of 42 years (or about 20k per year). However, note that much of this Operational Spill would actually be available to the SJRIP for habitat augmentation, or some other purpose, and would be declassified as Operational Spill when used in this manner.
Because not all Operational Spill is the same, it was broken down into its components of SPR Nose, TBF increase, and Spike Release. The Original Method showed much higher volumes of Fall Spike, and slightly lower SPR Nose volumes than the Proposed Method. The Original Method showed zero total volume of increased TBF. This is because the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations prioritizes the fall spike over an increase in TBF, as mentioned earlier.
EOWYST
The reservoir is unable to be operated to hit its mark (the EOWYST) perfectly every year. If the Available Water calculation results in a negative number (i.e. inflows are less than outflows), then no SPR will be
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made, and the storage at the end of the water year may be less than the desired EOWYST. Unfavorable hydrology resulted in storage less than the desired EOWYST 10 ‐ 11 times between 1971‐2013, depending on the EOWYST.
The September 30th storage was also greater than the EOWYST 1‐2 times (again, depending on EOWYST). The September 30th storage might be greater than the EOWYST if the total allowed operational spill does not evacuate enough water by September 30th.
This calculation was not made for the Original Method, as there is no EOWYST under that method.
Total Outlet Works Release
The total outlet works release over 1971‐2013 is virtually the same across all EOWYSTs. The difference, again, is in evaporation. There is also virtually no difference when compared to the Original Method. The same volume of water, overall, passes through the reservoir no matter what method is chosen. The difference lies in the type of release, size and timing.
Shortage
Shortages were shown in the Proposed Method when the reservoir elevation passed below 5990 ft. At this point, the model passed inflow (representing a shortage) and turned off the NIIP diversion. Shortage occurred at lower EOWYSTs for one of two reasons:
1. Low hydrology year (or succession of years) combined with a low EOWYST. This is the primary concern and the most likely reason for shortage. Annual inflow was less than the user demands. Shortage calculations for low hydrology years put a lower limit of 6050 ft on the EOWYST. The Original Method modeling results show the reservoir coming very close, but never entering a shortage under historic hydrology. This makes sense, as the reservoir has, in reality, forecast a shortage twice, but not yet entered one.
2. Very high hydrology year, combined with a low EOWYST. It was surprising to realize that a shortage could occur even in a very high hydrology year. In fact, the modeling shows that it is entirely possible to have a full SPR in the same year as a shortage. Because the aim of the EOWYST is to start and end the water year at the same elevation, the model will first “dig a hole” to accommodate a large inflow forecast. If the starting EOWYST is too low, and the hole that must be dug is very large, the model can dig its way into a shortage in early spring before snow has even begun to melt. While Reclamation would not actually dig the reservoir into a shortage in the spring time, this “Wet Shortage” first occurs at EOWYST of 6020 ft. Because this is lower than the previously set minimum EOWYST of 6050 ft, the first cut of the minimum EOWYST recommendation stands at 6050 ft.
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Uncontrolled Spill
Despite all efforts to evacuate extra volume through operational spill, it is still possible to require the spillway when using a higher EOWYST. Use of the spillway is not a desirable operation for many reasons. Besides the uncontrollable nature, it can also introduce non‐native fish into the river system. At an EOWYST of 6070, the model begins to use the spillway. Spill calculations based on 1971‐2013 put an upper limit of 6070 ft on the EOWYST under the Proposed Method.
Available Water minus Spill and Shortage (i.e. Optimized Available Water)
The upper limit of 6070 ft and the lower limit of 6050 ft were then refined into 2‐ft increments to optimize the Available Water by EOWYST. This “sweet spot” was calculated to eliminate all possibility of shortage and spill when using historic hydrology (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Total shortage and spill volumes for 1971‐2013 are shown along with the Optimized Available Water. Optimized Available Water subtracts the shortage and spill volumes from the Available Water calculation.
The 2‐ft refinement shows that choosing an EOWYST of 6052 ft maximizes Available Water while eliminating the occurrence of shortage or spill in the modeling for 1971‐2013. This should be the minimum EOWYST considered. The safe upper limit for the EOWYST is 6068 ft to avoid any uncontrolled spill. At this point, the only difference in the Optimized Available Water lies in evaporative loss. Lower EOWYST’s will lose less evaporative volume than higher EOWYSTs due to the reservoir surface area. This loss is very minor though, and should not be a major factor in deciding on an EOWYST.
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It is important to note that while the min and max EOWYSTs are the same for the more recent 15 years of hydrologic data (because the last 15 years are merely a subset of the last 42), a trend towards higher risk of shortage is apparent. Note that in Figure 8, the Optimized Available Water trend has shifted significantly to the right, towards the higher EOWYSTs. With continued dry spells, choosing a higher EOWYST would add a significant factor of safety to potential shortages while having a very minor effect (evaporative loss) on the Optimized Available Water.
Figure 8. Total shortage and spill volumes for the last 15 years of data, 1999‐2013, are shown along with the Optimized Available Water for that time frame. When compared to the last 42 years of data in the previous figure, the pattern shifts to the right towards higher EOWYSTs.
Downstream River Flows
Flow Recommendation statistics in the San Juan River at Four Corners were calculated for both methods. The results of modeling using the Proposed Method with EOWYST of 6060 ft (chosen in the middle of the recommended range) was compared to the modeling using the Original Method. Note that the model used here is NOT the baseline model. The results of this calculation are for comparison purposes only.
Tables 1 and 2 show the Flow Recommendation Statistics comparison. Figure 9 plots these statistics. Overall there were no changes for the highest flow target of 10,000 cfs. However, under the Proposed
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Method, the overall frequency with which most of the flow targets were met increased slightly. Exceptions include the lower durations for lower flow targets.
Table 1. Flow Recommendation Statistic Frequency under Original Method using
Daily Operations Model
Original Frequency (# years target met / 42 yrs)
Days 10,000 cfs 8,000 cfs 5,000 cfs 2,500 cfs
1 28% 44% 72% 95%
5 21% 40% 72% 93%
10 2% 30% 51% 91%
15 0% 26% 49% 77%
20 19% 49% 65%
30 2% 42% 56%
40 33% 42%
50 23% 42%
60 16% 37%
80 9% 19%
Table 2. Flow Recommendation Statistic Frequency under Proposed Method using
Daily Operations Model
Proposed Frequency (# years target met / 42 yrs)
Days 10,000 cfs 8,000 cfs 5,000 cfs 2,500 cfs
1 28% 51% 70% 93%
5 21% 44% 70% 86%
10 2% 33% 65% 84%
15 0% 28% 58% 77%
20 23% 58% 70%
30 0% 47% 58%
40 40% 49%
50 35% 47%
60 30% 40%
80 23% 37%
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Figure 9. Comparison of Flow Statistics under Original (dotted line) and Proposed (solid line) Methods for 1971‐2013. Typically shows a slight increase in frequency in the event durations for each flow target. Exceptions include the lower durations (1‐15 days) for lower flow targets.
6.2 5‐Year Drought Simulation
One of the main advantages of the proposed changes to the Available Water Calculation by using an EOWYST is to protect the target base flows from shortage in a multi‐year drought. But the question remains, “How much insurance against shortage will various EOWYST’s provide?” For the 5‐year drought simulation, the hydrology was broken into two sets: The past 42 years of hydrologic data (1971‐2013), and the past 15 years of hydrologic data (1999‐2013Statistics performed on each hydrologic range yielded a set of “drought scenarios”. The following hydrologic inflow scenarios were repeated for 5 years continuously, simulating varying degrees of a multi‐year drought:
2002 Observed Volume (minimum observed into Navajo) for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 154,411 af)
90% Exceedance Volume (1999‐2013), or past 15 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 431,206 af)
90% Exceedance Volume (1971‐2013), or past 42 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 469,342 af)
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75% Exceedance Volume (1999‐2013), or past 15 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 479,192 af)
75% Exceedance Volume (1971‐2013), or past 42 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 602,158 af)
The analysis assumed each of these hydrologic conditions occurred for five years in a row. The simulation ran under the Proposed Method under the full range of EOWYSTs. No SPRs were made, as the Proposed Available Water calculation resulted in a negative number under these drought scenarios; rather the model rules calculated only the minimum releases required to meet the existing target base flows. Full diversion to NIIP (2012) was assumed each year.
The reservoir storage fell with each subsequent year, as the inflows were less than the releases required to meet target base flows. As expected, the probability of shortage increases each year, and shortage sharing would be implemented much sooner with a lower starting reservoir elevation. Additionally, the simulation shows a shortage much more quickly when analyzing the most recent 15 years of hydrologic data, as opposed to the past 42 years. See Figure 10.
Figure 10. The number of years of storage that can be expected from Navajo Reservoir under repeating hydrologic regimes and varying initial reservoir elevations.
As seen in Figure 10, the speed with which a shortage is realized increases with a decreasing starting reservoir elevation. It is important to note, however, that the hydrologic conditions of the past 15 years are much drier than the historical average. The model shows the reservoir entering shortage much
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faster under the 75% exceedance condition of the past 15 years, than the 75% exceedance condition of the last 42 years. Ten of the last fifteen years have had below‐average hydrologic conditions.
Also note that a starting reservoir elevation of 6018.8 ft, which corresponds to approximately 900,000 af in the reservoir, results in 1 year of carryover storage under the 75% and 90% exceedance inflow volumes from 1971‐2013. This corresponds to the Biologic Opinion minimum carryover storage volume and reservoir elevation of 6018.8 ft. However, one additional year of these inflows will result in a shortage.
While the likelihood of seeing the exact same five years of hydrology in a row is obviously nearly impossible, the notable trend of drying conditions, moving the optimal EOWYST towards the higher end of the range, is obvious from this figure. In this modeling, avoiding a shortage for at least 3 years under each of these hydrologic scenarios (with the exception of the WY2002 scenario) is successful when the EOWYST is higher than 6063 ft. When combined with the efforts from the first modeling, the recommended EOWYST range is refined to 6063 ft – 6068 ft (Figure 11).
Figure 11. Superimposed on the previous Figure 10 are the shaded bounds from the Section 6.1 Re‐Operation Analysis. The red line signifies the minimum EOWYST recommended under this analysis, as it is the minimum EOWYST above the breakpoint, insuring against shortage for one additional year.
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7.0 Summary of Findings
Hydrology in the San Juan River Basin has been increasingly below‐average over the last 15 years and that trend is forecast to continue. A shortage has been forecast at Navajo twice in the last fifteen years and risk of shortage is likely to increase.
Reclamation is proposing an End of Water Year Storage Target (EOWYST) as a modification to the Original Method’s Available Water Calculation. This EOWYST would replace the Carryover Storage parameter in the original equation, and negate the need for lookback years in the Decision Tree. This method increases insurance against shortage by passing annual hydrology over an EOWYST. In multi‐year droughts, a higher EOWYST banked will ensure the TBF will be met for longer.
As compared to the Original Method, the Proposed Method would likely result in a higher number of 2‐week, 3‐week, and Full SPRs, and a decrease in the number of 1‐week SPRs. Additionally, the Proposed Method results in a higher number of 0‐week (no SPR) years. However, in years when the Available Water is less than that required for a 1‐week SPR, that volume would be available for some other use by the SJRIP (i.e. increased TBF, a modified or shorter SPR, moving sediment, etc).
Based on modeling that re‐operates Navajo Reservoir from 1971‐2013, choosing an EOWYST within the range of 6052 ft‐6068 ft will minimize the risk of shortage and spill over historic inflow conditions.
Based on the modeling that assesses the risks associated with various EOWYST’s under a multi‐year drought, a minimum EOWYST of 6063 ft is recommended to increase long‐term insurance against a shortage.
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page21
Appendix A
Modeling Result Tables
Modeling results broken out by water year are shown in the next several tables. A finer resolution
analysis (2‐ft intervals) was also performed and that data is available upon request.
January 2015
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Total Avail Water (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 110,699 109,361 107,999 106,476 104,785 102,805 100,688 98,347 95,809 452,491
1972 (17,737) (18,819) (19,938) (21,317) (22,897) (24,733) (27,482) (29,486) (29,235) 354,284
1973 1,360,914 1,358,501 1,355,928 1,352,952 1,349,651 1,345,850 1,341,037 1,336,802 1,334,408 1,644,173
1974 (7,124) (8,090) (9,143) (10,390) (11,819) (13,614) (15,250) (17,045) (19,064) 489,819
1975 830,367 827,118 823,469 820,229 815,052 812,492 810,679 808,658 806,489 1,349,729
1976 288,778 287,890 286,988 285,806 284,560 283,244 281,722 279,991 277,998 611,706
1977 (180,957) (182,299) (183,664) (185,067) (186,548) (188,129) (190,748) (194,045) (196,018) 311,452
1978 (24,616) (27,376) (30,152) (33,044) (36,200) (39,595) (44,323) (49,851) (54,355) 464,802
1979 1,411,111 1,406,719 1,402,150 1,397,471 1,392,609 1,387,338 1,380,600 1,372,928 1,365,445 1,809,833
1980 914,686 909,036 903,051 896,821 890,157 882,982 880,782 878,353 875,979 1,391,881
1981 20,261 18,853 17,337 15,819 14,093 12,577 10,877 9,102 6,867 517,253
1982 698,982 697,935 696,860 695,558 693,992 692,333 689,946 687,551 685,357 1,185,424
1983 981,843 980,898 979,760 978,501 977,036 975,508 973,876 972,058 970,122 1,486,556
1984 681,610 680,554 679,240 677,770 675,994 674,275 672,006 669,694 667,233 1,172,082
1985 1,459,536 1,458,490 1,457,323 1,456,021 1,454,563 1,453,031 1,451,484 1,449,803 1,446,903 1,966,693
1986 1,256,830 1,254,520 1,252,014 1,249,065 1,245,858 1,242,408 1,238,661 1,234,591 1,230,307 1,767,811
1987 1,338,317 1,337,268 1,336,035 1,334,688 1,333,261 1,331,714 1,330,112 1,328,412 1,326,270 1,845,333
1988 224,550 222,947 221,432 220,267 218,813 217,296 215,482 212,891 210,839 710,501
1989 236,939 235,143 234,279 233,146 231,153 229,791 227,741 225,711 223,549 729,911
1990 90,887 87,460 85,249 83,395 81,260 80,668 77,739 74,045 70,706 589,079
1991 483,945 483,012 481,983 480,658 479,243 477,689 476,093 474,268 472,298 972,656
1992 568,337 567,397 566,373 565,031 563,630 562,040 560,444 558,556 556,562 1,026,215
1993 1,025,758 1,024,797 1,023,680 1,022,452 1,020,991 1,019,458 1,017,815 1,015,999 1,014,012 1,541,341
1994 464,413 463,122 461,679 459,742 457,577 455,015 452,390 449,299 445,888 927,842
1995 1,076,259 1,075,211 1,074,032 1,072,778 1,071,373 1,069,826 1,068,169 1,066,300 1,064,327 1,581,310
1996 (98,927) (100,009) (101,105) (102,236) (103,693) (105,239) (106,952) (108,806) (110,914) 399,050
1997 751,545 749,104 746,631 743,954 740,816 737,273 733,438 729,216 724,564 1,227,958
1998 363,656 362,742 361,593 360,272 358,848 357,313 355,733 353,898 352,031 880,273
1999 740,547 739,403 738,238 736,964 734,762 733,124 730,487 728,531 726,408 1,230,820
2000 (48,542) (49,532) (50,537) (51,690) (53,098) (54,591) (56,221) (57,965) (59,971) 479,031
2001 349,254 347,013 344,563 341,830 338,711 335,245 331,552 327,448 322,991 757,185
2002 (380,655) (383,076) (384,740) (386,881) (389,022) (390,532) (393,323) (396,013) (399,385) 121,604
2003 (491,568) (495,752) (499,528) (503,724) (507,908) (511,487) (516,094) (520,755) (526,552) (2,220)
2004 (305,458) (311,405) (317,051) (323,346) (329,320) (334,596) (341,012) (347,787) (355,941) 180,309
2005 657,956 650,782 643,677 635,861 628,155 620,978 612,543 603,439 592,866 1,034,075
2006 100,652 99,592 98,488 97,040 95,472 93,746 91,963 89,942 87,741 600,100
2007 522,701 521,758 520,618 519,258 517,838 516,285 514,698 512,868 510,781 1,010,954
2008 764,606 763,585 762,267 760,816 759,186 757,453 755,640 753,570 751,428 1,290,389
2009 249,862 248,724 247,365 246,019 244,445 242,754 240,972 239,114 237,115 749,075
2010 246,961 245,421 244,167 242,777 241,086 239,487 237,774 235,773 233,689 733,859
2011 128,571 127,348 126,231 124,961 122,961 121,241 119,565 117,695 115,696 630,473
2012 (31,422) (32,528) (34,016) (35,250) (36,882) (38,879) (41,131) (43,389) (45,995) 478,034
2013 (74,130) (77,359) (80,948) (84,720) (88,429) (92,989) (99,689) (105,172) (110,486) 335,836
Total Af 18,740,197 18,655,457 18,569,881 18,476,733 18,372,114 18,268,856 18,150,485 18,024,539 17,894,760 39,036,982
Proposed Method EOWYST (ft)WaterYr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page23
WY Operational Spill (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 35,414 33,128 30,760 28,195 25,075 21,513 18,012 13,745 147,510 ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 1,271,331 1,265,682 1,259,580 1,252,722 1,245,003 1,235,408 1,224,159 1,214,155 1,208,378 733,721
1974 15,139 13,972 12,715 11,266 9,917 8,735 6,765 4,637 2,275 6,322
1975 451,664 447,331 442,618 438,389 431,249 425,980 420,470 416,372 412,063 579,174
1976 83,137 81,364 80,393 78,437 76,632 74,859 71,235 67,199 64,347 115,716
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 1,354,182 1,348,877 1,343,358 1,337,708 1,331,835 1,325,469 1,310,538 1,292,983 1,276,042 898,804
1980 540,669 534,582 528,309 521,575 514,187 506,716 503,784 500,611 497,846 483,138
1981 35,860 33,476 31,200 29,264 26,553 24,776 21,332 18,376 14,184 12,631
1982 291,829 290,336 288,847 287,264 285,037 282,608 279,686 276,712 273,768 274,579
1983 607,881 606,747 605,891 604,514 603,613 601,645 600,236 598,329 596,553 576,400
1984 283,930 282,399 280,880 279,293 277,255 275,360 272,628 270,421 267,180 261,570
1985 1,412,670 1,411,406 1,409,997 1,408,423 1,406,662 1,404,812 1,402,945 1,400,914 1,397,411 981,818
1986 1,030,071 1,024,790 1,017,185 1,010,594 1,001,539 993,702 983,446 974,259 962,861 857,596
1987 1,219,176 1,216,276 1,213,302 1,210,027 1,206,490 1,202,678 1,198,450 1,193,870 1,188,901 933,990
1988 116,350 111,760 109,319 108,212 106,713 104,119 101,892 98,366 95,626 128,409
1989 27,116 24,294 22,593 20,418 16,713 117,141 113,852 109,091 104,596 83,301
1990 3,932 131,497 127,418 123,412 116,923 115,855 108,999 100,050 92,215 84,199
1991 83,494 82,241 80,570 78,960 76,847 74,905 72,600 69,852 66,966 58,154
1992 169,502 168,159 166,844 165,340 163,423 161,301 158,923 156,403 153,519 297,521
1993 654,967 654,126 652,804 651,792 650,011 648,361 646,816 644,559 642,629 627,139
1994 64,997 63,222 61,188 58,764 55,691 52,442 48,435 44,272 39,838 202,943
1995 702,456 700,943 699,808 698,271 696,415 694,330 691,886 689,809 686,997 669,327
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 342,158 339,273 336,388 333,455 330,024 326,072 321,690 316,912 311,676 297,521
1998 262,416 260,252 257,636 254,661 253,082 249,535 245,159 240,936 236,590 153,691
1999 335,745 333,704 332,091 330,448 327,808 325,594 322,111 319,650 316,375 297,521
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 220,137 216,888 211,699 205,448 197,745 190,452 181,278 172,865 163,517 264,988
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 254,888 247,621 240,402 232,453 224,577 216,793 207,770 198,386 187,351 111,829
2006 35,635 32,972 29,214 24,413 18,287 12,640 5,905 148,423 142,505 106,729
2007 118,494 117,322 116,027 114,664 112,990 111,247 109,380 107,256 104,793 89,381
2008 368,469 367,268 365,891 364,209 362,123 359,951 357,453 354,558 351,435 382,076
2009 48,144 46,732 44,864 42,904 40,833 38,250 35,547 32,793 29,593 164,287
2010 32,143 29,748 27,456 25,457 21,909 19,303 16,180 12,169 7,710 239,469
2011 74,461 72,754 71,328 69,078 66,026 63,712 61,302 57,814 54,157 135,377
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 12,548,457 12,591,142 12,498,575 12,400,027 12,279,188 12,266,265 12,120,865 12,116,746 12,097,405 11,109,320
WaterYrProposed Method EOWYST (ft)
January 2015
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WY Spike Volume (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 17,363 16,293 15,164 13,780 12,219 10,483 8,935 6,826 55,434 ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 275,299 272,563 269,568 266,306 262,573 257,569 252,133 247,244 244,360 154,547
1974 15,139 13,972 12,715 11,266 9,917 8,735 6,765 4,637 2,275 6,322
1975 37,935 36,916 35,924 35,000 33,181 30,664 27,095 25,146 23,277 ‐
1976 22,510 21,647 20,859 20,130 18,908 17,823 16,496 14,281 12,898 115,716
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 290,727 282,439 274,537 214,506
1980 39,064 38,623 37,959 37,519 36,901 35,840 35,135 34,436 33,859 161,816
1981 17,441 16,338 15,213 14,060 12,825 11,546 10,031 8,801 6,782 12,631
1982 17,076 16,531 16,067 15,729 14,899 13,954 13,310 12,752 11,957 274,579
1983 44,972 44,786 44,643 44,526 44,243 43,805 43,193 42,693 42,419 255,078
1984 22,356 21,893 21,556 21,286 20,735 20,258 19,578 19,020 18,169 261,570
1985 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521 297,521
1986 167,751 165,139 162,369 159,146 155,615 151,678 147,419 142,778 137,821 173,298
1987 250,435 248,802 247,317 245,668 243,854 241,911 239,619 237,091 234,710 249,693
1988 30,583 28,788 28,079 27,395 26,688 25,868 24,914 23,637 22,564 128,409
1989 20,617 19,404 18,478 17,318 15,379 43,887 41,484 39,600 37,098 83,301
1990 3,893 42,900 39,954 37,850 34,608 33,091 29,242 24,082 20,590 84,199
1991 20,445 20,072 19,430 19,088 18,334 17,891 17,183 16,203 15,233 58,154
1992 19,068 18,666 18,368 18,148 17,568 17,039 16,257 15,625 14,736 297,521
1993 53,625 53,355 53,170 52,982 52,672 52,133 51,369 50,941 50,638 47,965
1994 18,252 17,780 17,201 16,736 15,862 15,226 13,898 12,893 11,940 202,943
1995 44,709 44,245 43,868 43,582 43,131 42,593 41,805 41,594 40,754 211,146
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 15,535 15,064 14,695 14,451 14,199 13,758 13,209 12,632 11,991 297,521
1998 119,747 118,556 117,163 115,595 113,856 111,964 109,290 107,045 104,711 153,691
1999 19,514 18,661 18,186 17,820 17,369 16,779 15,951 15,412 14,265 297,521
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 99,016 96,514 93,839 90,392 87,303 83,522 79,412 75,102 70,212 264,988
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 15,089 14,850 14,738 14,606 14,363 13,791 12,993 12,658 12,137 111,829
2006 23,789 22,406 19,980 17,089 13,297 9,662 4,800 39,793 36,531 106,729
2007 14,524 14,293 14,140 14,028 13,774 13,529 13,141 12,846 12,416 89,381
2008 20,801 20,599 20,443 20,234 19,814 19,320 18,686 17,961 17,072 213,481
2009 29,802 29,425 28,791 28,056 27,223 26,199 25,140 23,978 22,647 164,287
2010 14,868 13,603 12,410 11,345 9,917 8,610 6,938 4,974 2,875 239,469
2011 39,183 38,145 37,319 36,289 34,743 33,314 31,834 30,265 28,658 135,377
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 2,145,444 2,155,870 2,124,647 2,092,462 2,051,014 2,037,485 1,975,500 1,952,905 1,943,087 5,365,188
WaterYrProposed Method EOWYST (ft)
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page25
WY Nose Volume (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 579,174
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 387,802 385,379 382,673 380,249 376,925 376,840 376,667 376,278 375,506 579,174
1976 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298
1980 464,013 458,332 452,574 446,700 440,609 433,646 431,570 429,354 426,084 321,322
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 274,091 273,154 272,134 270,897 269,518 268,055 265,790 263,370 261,227 ‐
1983 530,821 529,739 528,574 527,250 525,879 524,452 523,045 521,352 519,199 321,322
1984 257,510 256,413 255,039 253,590 251,784 250,108 247,794 245,526 243,116 ‐
1985 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298
1986 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298
1987 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298 684,298
1988 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1989 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1990 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1991 61,261 60,327 59,298 57,978 56,564 55,012 53,416 51,595 49,625 ‐
1992 145,124 144,196 143,120 141,802 140,379 138,813 137,210 135,331 133,354 ‐
1993 574,780 573,630 572,393 571,027 569,501 567,919 566,315 564,383 561,721 579,174
1994 41,843 40,595 39,218 37,392 35,385 33,066 30,706 27,930 24,863 ‐
1995 625,550 624,425 623,176 621,766 620,225 618,675 617,076 614,828 612,853 458,182
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 326,178 323,766 321,246 318,557 315,374 311,866 308,034 303,835 299,243 ‐
1998 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1999 315,159 314,069 312,935 311,657 309,367 307,744 305,087 303,171 301,042 ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 233,971 226,753 219,667 211,868 204,151 197,294 189,241 180,170 169,629 ‐
2006 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2007 99,988 99,043 97,901 96,544 95,121 93,572 91,980 90,160 88,076 ‐
2008 337,435 336,294 335,066 333,721 332,276 330,802 329,234 327,655 325,953 168,595
2009 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2010 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2011 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 8,097,015 8,067,602 8,036,504 8,002,487 7,964,546 7,929,350 7,894,653 7,856,426 7,812,979 5,744,132
WaterYrProposed Method EOWYST (ft)
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WY TBF Increase Volume (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 18,051 16,835 15,596 14,415 12,856 11,030 9,078 6,919 92,076 ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 311,735 308,822 305,714 302,119 298,132 293,541 287,729 282,614 279,721 ‐
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 25,927 25,037 24,021 23,140 21,143 18,476 16,708 14,948 13,280 ‐
1976 60,627 59,716 59,534 58,306 57,724 57,036 54,739 52,919 51,449 ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 372,364 367,059 361,540 355,890 350,016 343,651 335,514 326,246 317,208 ‐
1980 37,591 37,627 37,776 37,355 36,677 37,230 37,079 36,821 37,903 ‐
1981 18,419 17,139 15,987 15,203 13,728 13,230 11,301 9,575 7,402 ‐
1982 663 651 646 639 619 599 586 589 584 ‐
1983 32,087 32,223 32,673 32,739 33,492 33,388 33,998 34,284 34,936 ‐
1984 4,064 4,093 4,285 4,416 4,736 4,994 5,256 5,874 5,895 ‐
1985 430,852 429,588 428,179 426,605 424,844 422,994 421,127 419,096 415,593 ‐
1986 178,022 175,353 170,519 167,150 161,627 157,727 151,730 147,184 140,743 ‐
1987 284,443 283,176 281,688 280,061 278,338 276,469 274,534 272,481 269,893 ‐
1988 85,767 82,972 81,240 80,817 80,025 78,251 76,978 74,729 73,062 ‐
1989 6,499 4,890 4,115 3,100 1,334 73,254 72,367 69,491 67,498 ‐
1990 39 88,597 87,464 85,561 82,315 82,764 79,757 75,968 71,625 ‐
1991 1,788 1,842 1,842 1,894 1,949 2,001 2,001 2,054 2,107 ‐
1992 5,310 5,298 5,356 5,390 5,476 5,449 5,457 5,446 5,428 ‐
1993 26,562 27,142 27,242 27,783 27,839 28,309 29,132 29,234 30,269 ‐
1994 4,901 4,848 4,768 4,636 4,444 4,150 3,831 3,449 3,034 ‐
1995 32,196 32,273 32,763 32,922 33,059 33,062 33,004 33,387 33,390 ‐
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 445 443 446 447 450 448 447 446 442 ‐
1998 142,669 141,696 140,473 139,066 139,226 137,571 135,869 133,890 131,879 ‐
1999 1,071 974 970 971 1,073 1,070 1,073 1,067 1,068 ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 121,121 120,374 117,861 115,056 110,442 106,930 101,866 97,762 93,304 ‐
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 5,828 6,018 5,996 5,978 6,063 5,709 5,536 5,559 5,585 ‐
2006 11,846 10,566 9,234 7,325 4,990 2,979 1,105 108,630 105,974 ‐
2007 3,982 3,985 3,986 4,092 4,095 4,145 4,259 4,250 4,301 ‐
2008 10,232 10,375 10,381 10,254 10,033 9,830 9,533 8,943 8,410 ‐
2009 18,343 17,307 16,072 14,848 13,609 12,051 10,407 8,816 6,946 ‐
2010 17,275 16,144 15,046 14,112 11,992 10,693 9,242 7,195 4,835 ‐
2011 35,278 34,609 34,010 32,788 31,283 30,397 29,468 27,548 25,499 ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 2,305,998 2,367,671 2,337,424 2,305,077 2,263,628 2,299,429 2,250,712 2,307,414 2,341,338 ‐
WaterYrProposed Method EOWYST (ft)
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page27
SPR Volume (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 ‐ 90,843
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
1973 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1976 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
1979 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1980 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1983 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1984 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1985 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1986 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1987 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1988 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 90,843
1989 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347 150,347
1990 90,843 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1991 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1992 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 229,686
1993 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1994 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 229,686
1995 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
1998 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686
1999 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
2001 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 ‐
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
2005 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
2006 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 ‐ ‐ ‐
2007 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
2008 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512 418,512
2009 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 90,843
2010 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 229,686 ‐
2011 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 90,843 ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 90,843
Total 10,268,083 ########## ########## ########## 10,177,280 ########## ########## ########## 9,916,295 9,190,215
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page28
SPR Rank
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ‐ 1
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
1973 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1976 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
1979 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1980 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1983 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1984 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1985 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1986 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1987 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1988 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
1989 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
1990 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1991 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1992 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
1993 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1994 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
1995 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1998 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1999 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
2001 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ‐
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
2005 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2006 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ‐ ‐ ‐
2007 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2008 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2009 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1
2010 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ‐
2011 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
Total 104 103 103 103 103 102 102 101 100 92
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page29
WaterYr Observed
1971 600,000
1972 508,796
1973 1,815,900
1974 502,758
1975 1,299,518
1976 778,367
1977 326,907
1978 667,950
1979 1,872,385
1980 1,318,206
1981 524,751
1982 1,155,562
1983 1,410,850
1984 1,137,821
1985 1,890,702
1986 1,615,559
1987 1,770,261
1988 713,684
1989 726,425
1990 614,951
1991 934,288
1992 1,019,281
1993 1,453,798
1994 918,743
1995 1,504,531
1996 411,955
1997 1,306,094
1998 850,239
1999 1,196,976
2000 460,081
2001 890,761
2002 154,411
2003 399,846
2004 691,605
2005 1,418,373
2006 605,485
2007 974,027
2008 1,220,105
2009 756,806
2010 750,480
2011 638,095
2012 490,431
2013 471,626
Total 40,769,391
Total WY Inflow (af)
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page30
Total WY Outlet Works Release (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 357,816 356,346 354,833 353,034 351,012 348,888 347,362 344,699 338,685 337,050
1972 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 263,156 346,363
1973 1,537,122 1,534,397 1,531,612 1,528,373 1,524,672 1,520,760 1,515,389 1,510,565 1,507,757 1,301,770
1974 276,614 275,447 274,190 272,742 272,325 271,143 269,172 267,045 264,683 268,730
1975 1,023,165 1,021,250 1,019,294 1,017,535 1,014,270 1,011,099 1,008,640 1,006,052 1,003,231 1,168,878
1976 520,287 519,077 517,843 516,369 514,721 512,973 510,901 508,641 506,053 353,008
1977 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 263,671 270,133
1978 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 257,717 341,214
1979 1,560,357 1,560,357 1,560,357 1,560,357 1,560,357 1,560,357 1,553,563 1,545,903 1,538,809 1,469,194
1980 1,093,298 1,087,319 1,081,125 1,074,634 1,067,608 1,060,023 1,057,333 1,054,434 1,051,601 1,052,862
1981 275,593 273,843 272,048 270,285 268,392 266,564 265,068 263,364 260,706 268,134
1982 896,423 894,941 893,458 891,882 890,071 887,960 885,050 882,073 879,312 881,918
1983 1,162,832 1,161,623 1,160,492 1,159,096 1,157,693 1,155,846 1,154,377 1,152,469 1,150,393 1,144,169
1984 878,793 877,340 875,736 874,127 871,890 869,799 866,878 864,127 860,967 869,949
1985 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,564,786 1,549,587
1986 1,432,837 1,430,225 1,427,455 1,424,232 1,420,701 1,416,764 1,412,505 1,407,864 1,402,907 1,425,364
1987 1,518,002 1,517,327 1,516,335 1,514,691 1,512,882 1,510,945 1,508,965 1,507,466 1,505,093 1,504,035
1988 457,940 456,882 454,869 453,166 451,897 449,744 447,838 444,917 442,497 446,939
1989 488,049 487,217 486,113 484,743 482,463 478,338 476,876 475,814 473,311 470,630
1990 341,023 336,507 334,096 331,952 329,378 328,352 324,831 320,599 316,782 340,418
1991 680,560 679,268 677,879 676,363 674,515 672,558 670,378 668,079 665,517 669,027
1992 765,366 764,056 762,702 761,214 759,353 757,399 755,182 752,841 750,175 743,107
1993 1,204,403 1,203,093 1,201,757 1,200,395 1,198,638 1,196,750 1,194,588 1,192,370 1,189,878 1,199,904
1994 662,717 661,385 660,020 658,426 656,562 654,552 652,351 649,959 647,225 651,673
1995 1,253,153 1,251,728 1,250,307 1,248,823 1,247,106 1,245,254 1,243,112 1,240,874 1,238,309 1,238,908
1996 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,393 264,418
1997 949,052 946,168 943,280 940,346 936,912 932,963 928,582 923,805 918,573 904,860
1998 603,323 602,147 600,768 599,215 598,309 596,438 595,345 593,108 590,784 607,492
1999 938,229 936,597 934,989 933,345 930,724 928,785 925,600 923,145 920,381 904,860
2000 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 261,966 345,286
2001 591,253 589,699 587,028 584,631 581,736 577,954 574,515 570,278 566,222 499,202
2002 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 287,027 291,965
2003 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 261,161
2004 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 257,705 341,617
2005 857,809 850,353 843,154 835,223 827,270 819,831 810,979 801,571 790,509 730,474
2006 349,337 347,914 346,464 344,835 342,814 340,703 338,309 335,193 332,603 340,205
2007 723,239 722,064 720,768 719,299 717,622 715,829 713,848 711,733 709,219 707,320
2008 967,451 966,165 964,877 963,300 961,389 959,455 957,189 954,732 952,016 955,204
2009 512,783 511,716 510,205 508,613 506,974 504,873 502,690 500,492 497,909 493,740
2010 485,796 484,211 482,515 480,960 479,450 477,612 475,414 472,939 470,316 479,245
2011 386,393 384,954 384,123 382,561 380,400 378,719 377,127 375,235 373,195 375,362
2012 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 267,167 350,558
2013 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 261,097 354,563
Total 29,959,808 29,900,411 29,839,489 29,773,560 29,698,900 29,618,025 29,528,750 29,431,182 29,324,414 29,520,495
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page31
No.Days Short (Red indicates Type 2 shortage (Wet Shortage))
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 45 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 82 28 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1976 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1977 99 42 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 234 205 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 83 65 17 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1980 7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 89 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1983 40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1984 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1985 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1986 22 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1987 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1988 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1989 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1990 54 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1991 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1992 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1993 22 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1994 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1995 77 52 19 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1996 37 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 268 27 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1998 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1999 121 93 44 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 132 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2002 187 108 70 33 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 365 365 365 365 111 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 366 366 366 242 194 7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 195 157 121 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2006 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2009 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2010 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2011 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 273 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 2,798 1,508 1,002 640 305 7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page32
No Days Spilled
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 149 ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 74 ‐
1973 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 44 202 ‐
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 58 ‐
1975 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1976 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 34 ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 57 86 ‐
1980 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 16 ‐
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3 ‐
1983 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 143 ‐
1984 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 42 10
1985 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 76 288 49
1986 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 13 200 ‐
1987 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 181 332 38
1988 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 58 ‐
1989 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 23 146 ‐
1990 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 45 ‐
1991 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 94 ‐
1992 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 60 13
1993 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1994 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 61 ‐
1995 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 5 ‐
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1998 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 25 164 ‐
1999 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 18 ‐
2001 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 116 33
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6 ‐
2006 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 69 ‐
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 57 244 ‐
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 86 2
2009 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 10 101 ‐
2010 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 54 5
2011 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 57 ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 55 ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 486 3,066 150
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page33
Vol Shorted (af) (Red indicates Type 2 shortage (Wet Shortage))
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1973 446,281 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1975 727,339 277,686 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1976 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1977 79,010 30,144 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 162,446 142,314 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 823,140 644,628 168,595 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1980 69,421 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 271,041 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1983 359,008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1984 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1985 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1986 197,355 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1987 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1988 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1989 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1990 37,488 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1991 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1992 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1993 217,190 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1994 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1995 631,636 464,132 183,471 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1996 28,033 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 721,185 267,769 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1998 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1999 586,150 449,058 175,240 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2001 91,636 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2002 163,456 108,613 67,914 26,277 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 260,110 260,110 260,110 260,110 78,789 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 257,705 257,705 257,705 168,106 134,678 4,860 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 183,910 108,992 84,000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2006 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2009 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2010 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2011 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2013 196,635 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total 6,510,177 3,011,151 1,197,035 454,493 213,467 4,860 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page34
Vol Spilled (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 129,935 ‐
1972 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 52,675 ‐
1973 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 39,465 362,473 ‐
1974 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 40,264 ‐
1975 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1976 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 180,099 ‐
1977 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1978 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1979 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 96,456 257,514 ‐
1980 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 11,107 ‐
1981 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1982 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3,372 ‐
1983 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 292,488 ‐
1984 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 145,017 138,843
1985 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 142,934 1,133,182 56,628
1986 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 35,306 386,719 ‐
1987 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 355,310 1,407,243 118,413
1988 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 141,421 ‐
1989 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 71,008 271,735 ‐
1990 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 42,527 ‐
1991 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 354,613 ‐
1992 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 339,635 137,256
1993 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1994 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 360,437 ‐
1995 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 35,107 ‐
1996 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1997 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
1998 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 136,959 376,515 11,008
1999 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 12,496 ‐
2001 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 321,378 29,157
2002 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2003 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2004 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2005 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 59,504 ‐
2006 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 61,120 ‐
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 186,112 586,720 77,355
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 533,127 101,157
2009 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 71,207 285,096 ‐
2010 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 240,099 13,884
2011 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 39,730 ‐
2012 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 38,182 ‐
2013 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Total ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1,134,756 8,501,532 683,702
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page35
Optimized Available Water (af)
Original
6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method
1971 110,699 109,361 107,999 106,476 104,785 102,805 100,688 98,347 (34,126) 452,491
1972 (17,737) (18,819) (19,938) (21,317) (22,897) (24,733) (27,482) (29,486) (81,911) 354,284
1973 914,633 1,358,501 1,355,928 1,352,952 1,349,651 1,345,850 1,341,037 1,297,337 971,935 1,644,173
1974 (7,124) (8,090) (9,143) (10,390) (11,819) (13,614) (15,250) (17,045) (59,328) 489,819
1975 103,029 549,432 823,469 820,229 815,052 812,492 810,679 808,658 806,489 1,349,729
1976 288,778 287,890 286,988 285,806 284,560 283,244 281,722 279,991 97,899 611,706
1977 (259,966) (212,443) (183,664) (185,067) (186,548) (188,129) (190,748) (194,045) (196,018) 311,452
1978 (187,062) (169,690) (30,152) (33,044) (36,200) (39,595) (44,323) (49,851) (54,355) 464,802
1979 587,970 762,091 1,233,555 1,397,471 1,392,609 1,387,338 1,380,600 1,276,472 1,107,931 1,809,833
1980 845,265 909,036 903,051 896,821 890,157 882,982 880,782 878,353 864,871 1,391,881
1981 20,261 18,853 17,337 15,819 14,093 12,577 10,877 9,102 6,867 517,253
1982 427,941 697,935 696,860 695,558 693,992 692,333 689,946 687,551 681,985 1,185,424
1983 622,835 980,898 979,760 978,501 977,036 975,508 973,876 972,058 677,634 1,486,556
1984 681,610 680,554 679,240 677,770 675,994 674,275 672,006 669,694 522,216 1,033,239
1985 1,459,536 1,458,490 1,457,323 1,456,021 1,454,563 1,453,031 1,451,484 1,306,868 313,721 1,910,065
1986 1,059,475 1,254,520 1,252,014 1,249,065 1,245,858 1,242,408 1,238,661 1,199,285 843,588 1,767,811
1987 1,338,317 1,337,268 1,336,035 1,334,688 1,333,261 1,331,714 1,330,112 973,102 (80,974) 1,726,919
1988 224,550 222,947 221,432 220,267 218,813 217,296 215,482 212,891 69,417 710,501
1989 236,939 235,143 234,279 233,146 231,153 229,791 227,741 154,703 (48,186) 729,911
1990 53,399 87,460 85,249 83,395 81,260 80,668 77,739 74,045 28,179 589,079
1991 483,945 483,012 481,983 480,658 479,243 477,689 476,093 474,268 117,685 972,656
1992 568,337 567,397 566,373 565,031 563,630 562,040 560,444 558,556 216,927 888,959
1993 808,568 1,024,797 1,023,680 1,022,452 1,020,991 1,019,458 1,017,815 1,015,999 1,014,012 1,541,341
1994 464,413 463,122 461,679 459,742 457,577 455,015 452,390 449,299 85,451 927,842
1995 444,622 611,078 890,561 1,072,778 1,071,373 1,069,826 1,068,169 1,066,300 1,029,220 1,581,310
1996 (126,961) (100,009) (101,105) (102,236) (103,693) (105,239) (106,952) (108,806) (110,914) 399,050
1997 30,360 481,335 746,631 743,954 740,816 737,273 733,438 729,216 724,564 1,227,958
1998 363,656 362,742 361,593 360,272 358,848 357,313 355,733 216,939 (24,483) 869,265
1999 154,397 290,345 562,999 736,964 734,762 733,124 730,487 728,531 726,408 1,230,820
2000 (48,542) (49,532) (50,537) (51,690) (53,098) (54,591) (56,221) (57,965) (72,467) 479,031
2001 257,618 347,013 344,563 341,830 338,711 335,245 331,552 327,448 1,613 728,028
2002 (544,111) (491,689) (452,654) (413,158) (389,022) (390,532) (393,323) (396,013) (399,385) 121,604
2003 (751,678) (755,862) (759,637) (763,834) (586,698) (511,487) (516,094) (520,755) (526,552) (2,220)
2004 (563,163) (569,110) (574,756) (491,453) (463,998) (339,456) (341,012) (347,787) (355,941) 180,309
2005 474,046 541,790 559,677 635,861 628,155 620,978 612,543 603,439 533,362 1,034,075
2006 100,652 99,592 98,488 97,040 95,472 93,746 91,963 89,942 26,621 600,100
2007 522,701 521,758 520,618 519,258 517,838 516,285 514,698 326,756 (75,940) 933,598
2008 764,606 763,585 762,267 760,816 759,186 757,453 755,640 753,570 218,301 1,189,232
2009 249,862 248,724 247,365 246,019 244,445 242,754 240,972 167,908 (47,981) 749,075
2010 246,961 245,421 244,167 242,777 241,086 239,487 237,774 235,773 (6,411) 719,974
2011 128,571 127,348 126,231 124,961 122,961 121,241 119,565 117,695 75,967 630,473
2012 (31,422) (32,528) (34,016) (35,250) (36,882) (38,879) (41,131) (43,389) (84,177) 478,034
2013 (270,766) (77,359) (80,948) (84,720) (88,429) (92,989) (99,689) (105,172) (110,486) 335,836
Total Af 12,230,020 15,644,306 17,372,845 18,022,240 18,158,647 18,263,996 18,150,485 16,889,784 9,393,229 38,353,280
Water Yr
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page36
Original Method Decision Tree Walkthrough
Year Avail Water Perturb? Spill? Spill Vol AvailStorage Path SPR nose
1971 452,491 no no ‐ ‐ acghlk 1 ‐
1972 354,284 yes no ‐ ‐ acghlk 1 ‐
1973 1,644,173 yes yes 750,961 407,061 acfe Full 5
1974 489,819 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
1975 1,349,729 no yes 589,899 575,216 acfe Full 5
1976 611,706 no no ‐ ‐ acghlo 0 ‐
1977 311,466 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
1978 464,802 yes no ‐ ‐ acgk 1 ‐
1979 1,809,832 yes yes 559,680 273,968 acfe Full 6
1980 1,391,881 no yes 225,786 515,168 acfjimqt Full 3
1981 517,253 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
1982 1,185,424 no yes 60,445 529,476 acfjimp Full ‐
1983 1,486,556 yes yes 319,045 675,390 acfjimqp Full 3
1984 1,172,082 yes yes 47,637 563,376 acfjimqp Full ‐
1985 1,966,693 yes yes 798,257 669,976 acfe Full 6
1986 1,767,811 no yes 597,067 759,112 acfe Full 6
1987 1,845,333 yes yes 676,462 842,308 acfe Full 6
1988 710,501 yes no ‐ ‐ acgk 1 ‐
1989 729,911 yes yes 3,349 493,253 acfjimp 2 ‐
1990 589,076 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
1991 972,656 yes yes 105,870 572,504 acfjie Full ‐
1992 1,026,215 yes yes 208,540 528,528 acfjimqp 3 ‐
1993 1,541,341 yes yes 633,352 532,400 acfe Full 5
1994 927,842 no yes 165,613 506,207 acfjimqp 3 ‐
1995 1,581,310 no yes 693,281 571,709 acfe Full 4
1996 399,050 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
1997 1,227,958 yes yes 311,553 384,646 acfjimp Full ‐
1998 880,273 yes yes 98,986 585,766 acfjimqp 3 ‐
1999 1,230,820 yes yes 310,820 570,492 acfjimqp Full ‐
2000 479,031 yes no ‐ ‐ acgk 1 ‐
2001 757,185 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
2002 121,604 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
2003 (2,220) no no ‐ ‐ ab 0 ‐
2004 180,309 yes no ‐ ‐ acgk 1 ‐
2005 1,034,075 yes yes 235,615 229,266 acfjie Full ‐
2006 600,100 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
2007 1,010,954 yes no ‐ ‐ acgk Full ‐
2008 1,290,389 yes yes 430,106 580,737 acfe Full 2
2009 749,075 no yes 47,853 500,702 acfjimqt 1 ‐
2010 733,859 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
2011 630,473 no no ‐ ‐ acghdb 0 ‐
2012 478,034 no no ‐ ‐ acghlk 1 ‐
2013 335,836 no no ‐ ‐ acghlk 1 ‐
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page37
Annotated Decision Tree
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page38
SPR and Nose Ranks (as denoted in Decision Tree Walkthrough)
SPR Rank
1= no release
2 = 1 week
3 = 2 week
4 = 3 week
5 = full
Nose Vol
0 0
1 107107.4
2 168595
3 321322.3
4 458181.8
5 579173.6
6 684297.5
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page39
Riverware SPR Table based on Available Water (includes Base Release)
Avail Water (af) 0 90,843 150,347 229,686 418,512
Julian Day
Day 117 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 118 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 119 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 120 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 121 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 122 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 123 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 124 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 125 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 126 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 127 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 128 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 129 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 130 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 131 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 132 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 133 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 134 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 135 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 136 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 137 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 138 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 139 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 140 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 141 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 142 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 143 0 0 0 2000 4000
Day 144 0 0 0 3200 4000
Day 145 0 0 0 5000 5000
Day 146 0 0 0 5000 5000
Day 147 0 0 2000 5000 5000
Day 148 0 0 3200 5000 5000
Day 149 0 0 5000 5000 5000
Day 150 0 2000 5000 5000 5000
Day 151 0 3200 5000 5000 5000
Day 152 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 153 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 154 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 155 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 156 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 157 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 158 0 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 159 0 3400 5000 5000 5000
Day 160 0 2200 5000 5000 5000
Day 161 0 0 5000 5000 5000
Day 162 0 0 3400 5000 5000
Day 163 0 0 2200 5000 5000
Day 164 0 0 0 5000 5000
Day 165 0 0 0 5000 5000
Day 166 0 0 0 3400 4500
Day 167 0 0 0 2200 4000
Day 168 0 0 0 0 4000
Day 169 0 0 0 0 3500
Day 170 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 171 0 0 0 0 3000
Day 172 0 0 0 0 2500
Day 173 0 0 0 0 2500
Day 174 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 175 0 0 0 0 2000
Day 176 0 0 0 0 1500
Day 177 0 0 0 0 1500
Day 178 0 0 0 0 1000
Day 179 0 0 0 0 1000
SPR Daily Average Release (cfs)
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page40
Riverware SPR Nose interpolation table
Nose (af) 0 107,107 198,347 273,719 333,223 376,860 454,215 523,636 577,190 630,744 684,298
Day 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000
Day 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000
Day 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Day 89 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 3000 3000 4000 5000
Day 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 4000 4000 4000 5000
Day 91 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 3000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 92 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 93 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 94 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 95 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 96 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 97 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 98 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 99 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 101 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 102 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 103 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 104 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 105 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 106 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 107 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 108 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 109 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 110 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 111 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 112 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 113 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 114 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 115 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 116 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000
Day 117 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 118 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 119 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 120 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 121 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 122 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 123 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Day 124 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 125 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 126 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 127 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 128 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 129 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 130 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
Day 131 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 132 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 133 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 134 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 135 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 136 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 137 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Day 138 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 139 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 140 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 141 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 142 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 143 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Day 144 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Add cfs to SPR
January 2015
ReclamationWCAO Page41
Appendix B
Riverware Rules
Model is in Riverware version 6.5.2 and is available upon request. Riverware rules pertaining to the Proposed Method Reoperation modeling follow below.
RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)
14:47 January 22, 2015Page 1
RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)Description: The way the spike and TBF overage rules are written, the EOWYST is reached at some point between Sept 1 and Sept 30. In low hydrologic years, the
EOWYST will be reached slightly earlier in that month.
Policy Group: 3 Cycle Limits and FinishingDescription:
Rule: ComputeEOWYPEPriority: 1Description:
NavajoData.EOWYPE = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND @"t" == @"September 30"
Rule: MaxReleasePriority: 6Description: If the calculated Navajo Reservoir Outflow is too high, this rule sets the outflow to the maximum release (5,000 cfs). The reservoir won't be able to set
a release higher than 5,000 cfs, it will error out because the release table only goes to 5,000 cfs.
Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF Navajo Reservoir.Release > NavajoData.MaxRelease THENNavajoData.MaxRelease
END IF
Execute Only When:
TRUE
Policy Group: 3 Cycle Navajo RulesDescription: If need more iterations, could increase # run cycles and set these rules to >run cycle 2
Rule: AddSpikePriority: 7Description:
Navajo Reservoir.Release = Max Navajo Reservoir.Release , NavajoData.SpikeRelease
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpikeSeason
Rule: CalculateSpikePriority: 8Description: Calculate spike volume for Sept 1- Sept 30 based on leftovers from nose and spike.
NavajoData.SpikeRelease= IF Navajo Reservoir.Storage > ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,
NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE+ 0.50000000 "ft"
+ 0.00000000 "acre-ft"
THEN
Min VolumeToFlow Navajo Reservoir.Storage- ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,
NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE+ 0.50000000 "ft"
+ 0.00000000 "acre-ft"
,
@"t"
,
5,000.00000000 "cfs"ELSE
0.00000000 "cfs"END IF
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpikeSeason
Rule: MeetBaseflowPlusOveragePriority: 9
RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)
14:47 January 22, 2015Page 2
Description: Forecasts the release required to meet the TBF plus any summer overage applied for the current summer. Only fires during summer baseflow season. If the function cannot find a release to use, hypsim will return a message in diagnostics and will be ineffective.
Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF SJS4.Outflow < Min NavajoData.MIN TBF + NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage ,NavajoData.MAX TBF
THEN
Min NavajoData.MIN TBF + NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage ,NavajoData.MAX TBF
- SJS4.Outflow + Navajo Reservoir.Release
END IF
Execute Only When:
NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND SummerBaseflowSeason
Rule: CalculateOverageInCFSPriority: 10Description: Adds overage to TBF for summer (June 15 - September 30) to evacuate extra water. Spreads it equally over summer baseflow season through 9/1.
After 9/1, any additional water wlil be released through a spike.
NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage= IF NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"24:00:00 May 1, Current Year" <= 0.00000000 "acre-ft"
OR Navajo Reservoir.Storage < ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE
THEN
0.00000000 "cfs"ELSE
Max VolumeToFlow SummerOverage
77.00000000
,
@"t"
,
0.00000000 "cfs"END IF
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND SummerBaseflowSeason AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: InsertNewSPRPriority: 11Description:
Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose > NavajoData.MinRelease THENNavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose
END IF
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpringPeakReleaseSeason
Rule: MinReleasePriority: 12Description:
Navajo Reservoir.Release = NavajoData.MinRelease
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000
Rule: AddNoseToSPRPriority: 13Description:
NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose = Min NavajoData.Cycle3SpringPeakRelease + NavajoData.SPRNose , 5,000.00000000 "cfs"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: ComputeSPRNosePriority: 14Description: Computes a nose volume and then picks the appropriate interpolated nose from the table.
RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)
14:47 January 22, 2015Page 3
NavajoData.SPRNose = NavajoData.SPRNoseTables @"t" , SPROperationalSpillVolume
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: MatchAvailWatertoSPRPriority: 16Description: Forecast mode: When SPR has begun (when very close to SPR time) , the SPR may be manually input here-- this rule should be turned off and the SPR
being used should be input into the "NavajoData.KnownReleasePattern" slot.
NavajoData.Cycle3SpringPeakRelease = IF SpringPeakReleaseSeason THENNavajoData.SpringPeakReleaseTables @"t" , NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"t"
END IF
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: Recalculated Available WaterPriority: 17Description: Rule calculates available water based on Proposed Operations Method- using EOWYST.
Storage+Inflow-NIIP-Evap-the releases that were calculated in Cycle 2 for maintaining the TBF-EOWYST
NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater= Navajo Reservoir.Storage @"t - 1"
+ SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Inflow ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"
- SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Diversion ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"
- SumSlot Navajo Reservoir.Evaporation ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"
- NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases @"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"- NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases
- ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE
+ SumFlowsToVolumeSkipNaN NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose ,@"24:00:00 February 28, Current Year" ,@"t - 1"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpringPeakReleaseSeason
Policy Group: 2 Cycle Navajo RulesDescription:
Rule: ComputeEOWYPEPriority: 18Description:
NavajoData.EOWYPE = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND @"t" == @"September 30"
Rule: DetermineAnimasPeakDatePriority: 19Description: No rule yet
Execute Only When:
TRUE
RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)
14:47 January 22, 2015Page 4
Rule: SumOperationalReleasesPriority: 20Description:
NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases = SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Release ,PreviousDate @"t" ,
@"October 1",
@"t"
- SumFlowsToVolume NavajoData.ManualSpringPeakReleasePreviousDate @"t" ,
@"October 1",
@"t"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: StoreCycle2ElevationPriority: 21Description:
NavajoData.Cycle2NavajoElev = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"
Rule: Manual Spring Peak ReleasePriority: 24Description: Manual input of Spring Peak Release. BE SURE that the data shows NaN outside of the spring peak release in that slot.
For Run Cycle 2, use last month's final iteration of Spring Peak Release.
Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF NavajoData.ManualSpringPeakRelease > 0.00000000 "cfs" THENNavajoData.ManualSpringPeakRelease
END IF
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: MeetBaseflowPriority: 25Description: Forecasts the release required to meet the TBF minimum downstream (of 500 cfs). If the function cannot find a release to use, hypsim will return a
message in diagnostics and will be ineffective.
Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF SJS4.Outflow < NavajoData.MIN TBF THENNavajoData.MIN TBF - SJS4.Outflow + Navajo Reservoir.Outflow
END IF
Execute Only When:
NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: MinReleasePriority: 26Description:
Navajo Reservoir.Release = NavajoData.MinRelease
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: Set SJRIP Historic Observed InflowPriority: 27Description:
Navajo Reservoir.Inflow = NavajoData.NVLOC Inflow
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Policy Group: 2 Cycle Set SJ LossesDescription:
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Rule: Bound SJAF Gain/LossPriority: 28Description: This will bound the SJAF Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR
This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.
SJAF.Local Inflow = Min Max - 120.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJAFDaily * SJAF.Inflow , 411.00000000 "cfs"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: Bound SJFS Gain/LossPriority: 29Description: This will bound the SJFS Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR
This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.
SJFS.Local Inflow = Min Max - 250.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJFSDaily * SJFS.Inflow , 638.00000000 "cfs"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: Bound SJS4 Gain/LossPriority: 30Description: This will bound the Animas Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR
This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.
SJS4.Local Inflow = Min Max - 473.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJS4Daily * SJS4.Inflow , 684.00000000 "cfs"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Rule: Bound SJ4B Gain/LossPriority: 31Description: This will bound the Animas Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR
This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year. Actual min is -1300 but that point was thrown out
SJ4B.Local Inflow = Min Max - 120.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJ4BDaily * SJ4B.Inflow , 710.00000000 "cfs"
Execute Only When:
GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000
Utility Group: Navajo FunctionsDescription:
Function: SpringPeakReleaseSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:
@"t" <= @"June 30" AND @"t" >= @"March 1"
Function: SummerBaseflowSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:
@"t" <= @"September 30" AND @"t" > @"June 15"
Function: SPROperationalSpillVolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( )Description: 418,512 af refers to the volume of the maximum hydrograph, INCLUDING base flow (otherwise known as 356,000 af in the flow recommendations)
NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater - 418,512.00000000 "acre-ft"
Function: VolumeBeyondNoseReturn Type: NUMERIC
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Arguments: ( )Description: See if there's any extra spill that couldn't be taken care of with SPR Nose. This is done by taking the maximum release through march 1 (5,000 cfs)
and multiplying it by 57 days (first day of SPR is April 27.
SPROperationalSpillVolume - 565,269.00000000 "acre-ft"
Function: SpikeSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:
@"t" <= @"September 30" AND @"t" >= @"September 1"
Function: SummerOverageReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( )Description: This function figures out how much is left to evactuate after the Spring Peak Release. This only happens when the SPR was less than the maximum,
and thus there was no nose on the hydrograph. Extra water is relased through an increase in TBF first. Then a spike will occur after Sept 1 if necessary.
NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"24:00:00 May 1, Current Year" - FlowToVolume SumSlot NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose ,@"24:00:00 March 1, Current Year" ,@"24:00:00 June 30, Current Year"
,
@"t"
Utility Group: Global FunctionsDescription:
Function: Remaining Spring Runoff VolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT res )Description:
IF @"t" >= @"March 1" AND @"t" <= @"July 31" THENSumFlowsToVolume res . "Inflow" , @"t" , @"24:00:00 July 31, Current Year"
ELSE0.00000000 "acre-feet"
END IF
Function: CalculateAvailableIrrigationVolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT Res, SLOT ResInflow, SLOT ResStorage, SLOT ResEOYMinStorage )Description:
FlowToVolume OutflowRequredToMeetTPE Res ,ResInflow ,ResStorage ,ResEOYMinStorage
,
@"t"
* LENGTH @"t" TO DateMin NextDate @"t" ,@"November 1"
,
@"Finish Timestep"
Function: OutflowRequredToMeetTPEReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT Res, SLOT ResInflow, SLOT ResStorage, SLOT ResEOYMinStorage )Description:
IF @"t" == @"Finish Timestep" THENResInflow @"t - 1"
ELSETargetHWGivenInflow Res ,
@"t" ,DateMin NextDate @"t" ,
@"November 1",
@"Finish Timestep"
,
StorageToElevation Res ,ResEOYMinStorage
,
SumFlowsToVolume ResInflow ,@"t" ,
,
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DateMin NextDate @"t" ,@"November 1"
,
@"Finish Timestep"ResStorage @"t - 1"
END IF