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Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Two “Proofs”. Polya. U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected. Polya in Action. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) = . P(RBRB ) = - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Model ThinkingScott E Page
Two “Proofs”
Polya
U = {1 Blue, 1 Red}Select and return
Add a new ball that is thesame color as the ball selected
Polya in Action
Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely
P(RBBB) =
P(BBBR) =
P(RBRB) =
P(BBRR) =
Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.
P(BBBB) =
P(BBBR) =
P(50B) =
P(49B 1R) =
P(47B 3R) =
Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.
Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely
Model ThinkingScott E Page