MODEL Task TeamMODEL Task Team

NEMURONEMURONEMURO.FISHNEMURO.FISH

Dynamic linkDynamic linkCoupled with population dynamics modelCoupled with population dynamics model

PESTPESTRegional comparisonRegional comparison

EE--NEMURONEMURO3D3D--NEMURONEMURO

ECOPATH/ECOSIM+NEMUROECOPATH/ECOSIM+NEMUROEcological Ecological Modelling Modelling special volumespecial volume

Future perspectivesFuture perspectivesSupport by HeiwaSupport by Heiwa--Nakajima, FRA, APNNakajima, FRA, APN

MODEL Task TeamMODEL Task TeamResult of coupled lower Result of coupled lower trophictrophic level level -- fish models fish models

(NEMURO.FISH)(NEMURO.FISH)

Shin-ichi Ito Francisco E. WernerBernard. A. Megrey Michio J. Kishi

NEMURONorth Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography

NEMURO.FISHNEMURO For Including Saury and Herring

30 cm18 cm

Workshop 2000Workshop 2000

Workshop 2002Workshop 2002

Workshop 2003Workshop 2003

PICESPICES--APN Workshop 2004APN Workshop 2004

NEMURO

Courtesy of Dr. Yamanaka

NEMURO.FISH

Courtesy of Dr. Yamanaka

Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury

change of weight

[ ]f

z

CALCALPEFSRC

dtWdW

⋅++++−=⋅

)(

E: excretion

C: consumption

R: respiration (loses through metabolism)

S: specific dynamic action(digesting food)

F: egestion

P: egg production

Dynamic linkage between LTL & HTL

[ ]f

z

CALCALPEFSRC

dtWdW

⋅++++−=⋅

)(

NH4

Decrease ZS, ZL, ZP

PON

dN/dt = - (F+M) N

Population dynamics model

(b) Coupled

Year0 2 4 6 8 10

Ave

rage

wei

ght

(g w

et w

eigh

t)

0

50

100

150

200

250

(a) Uncoupled

0 2 4 6 8 10

Ave

rage

wei

ght

(g w

et w

eigh

t)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Age-0Age-1Age-2Age-3

Age-4Age-5Age-6Age-7

Age-8Age-9Age-10

Effect of Dynamic Linkage and Predation Pressure

• Reduction in large zooplankton

• Slower herring growth

(d) Small Zooplankton

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

(a) Total Phytoplankton

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

Field dataAd-hocPEST

(e) Large Zooplankton

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6(f) Predatory Zooplankton

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

(b) Small Phytoplankton

0.0

1.5

3.0

(c) Large Phytoplankton

Con

cent

ratio

n (m

icro

-moles

N/L

iter)

0.0

1.5

3.0

(g) Total Zooplankton >200 microns (ZL+ZP)

Month

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 120.0

0.3

0.6

0.9 (h) Nitrate

Month

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 120

10

20

30

PEST: a free software to make optimal parameter calibration

Field dataAd-hoc calibrationPESTPEST gives better fits to observed data.PEST is automated and independent to any models.It is easy to calibrate model parameter than adjoint method.

PEST enables NEMURO to be applied any stations which has seasonal LTL data.

Rose et al. (in prep.)

PEST to NEMURO.FISH

It is possible to apply PEST to NEMURO.FISH itself.

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

2

4

6

S imulated Year

Tota

l Bio

mas

s (g

ww

/m2 )

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

100

200

300

S imulated Year

Wei

ght (

g w

w)

12345678910

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400

100

200

300

Month

Wei

ght (

g w

w) P redicted S ize-at-age

Obs erved-S ize-at-age

Bern et al. (in prep.)

BeringPWS

WVCIOregon

3D-NEMURO LTL input to NEMURO.FISHRegional comparisonRegional comparison

Aita-Noguchi et al. (submitted)

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Wat

er T

empe

ratu

re (o C

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Bering SeaPrince William SoundWest Vancouver IslandOregon Coast

3D-NEMURO output (water temp.)Regional comparisonRegional comparison

Bering Sea

0.00.10.20.30.4

Prince William Sound

Con

cent

ratio

n (g

ww

/m3 )

Small zooplanktonLarge zooplanktonPredatory zooplankton

West Vancouver Island

Oregon Coast

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

3D-NEMURO output (zooplankton)Regional comparisonRegional comparison

Age-5

0

100

200

300

Age-10

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Wei

ght (

g w

w/in

divi

dual

)

0

100

200

300

400

Bering SeaPrince William SoundWest Vancouver IslandOregon Coast

NEMURO.FISH output (wet weight of Herring)Regional comparisonRegional comparison

Bern et al. (in prep.)

Schweigert, Funk, Oda, and Moore. 2002. Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific. PICES Scientific Report 20, pp 47-57.

Example of Field dataExample of Field data

30

35

40

45

130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165

Kuroshio Extension

Oyashio Front

spawning groundin winter

spawning groundin spring & autumn

Mixed water region

Migration

Migration

Feeding groundin summer

Fishing groundin autumn

Life History of Pacific Saury with Oceanographic Features

Fig.1 Schematic picture of life history of Pacific saury (Cololabis Saira). Spawning of the saury starts in September and continues untilJune, shifting the location between the mixed water region and Kuroshio region. The main spawning season is winter. The juveniles are advected to the Kuroshio extension region and migrate to the Oyashio region through the mixed region for feeding. After sufficient feeding they migrate back to the Kuroshio region for spawning. On the back migration, fishing ground is made around Japanese coastal zone. Ito et al. (2002)

Table 2. Life stages of Pacific saury in the saruy bioenergetics modelStage period model-day region　　　　larvae Feb.01-Feb.28 1- 28 Kuroshiojuvenile & young Mar.01-Jun.30 29-150 mixed regionsmall Jul.01-Oct.31 151-273 Oyashioadult Nov.01-Dec.14 274-317 mixed regionadult matured Dec.15-Feb.28 318-393 Kuroshioadult Mar.01-Jun.14 394-499 mixed regionadult Jun.15-Oct.31 500-638 Oyashioadult Nov.01-Dec.14 639-682 mixed regionadult matured Dec.15-Jan.31 683-730 Kuroshio

3-box version

OyashioMixed　Waterregion

Kuroshio

9 life stages

Ito et al. (2004)

Simulated wet weight & observed growth (Kurita et al.)

maximum consumption rate multiplied by temperature function (solid line) & water temperature (dotted line).

Terms of the bioenergetics equationblack solid: consumptionred solid: respirationblue solid: egestionblack dotted: excretionred dotted: specific dynamic actiongreen: egg productionopen circle: observed consumption

by Kurita (2002)

Ito et al. (2004)

comparison: autumn, winter, spring spawned saury

Pacific saury spawns from autumn to spring.

growth rate of juvenile :winter > spring > autumn

time span for becoming 30 cm adult saury:

spring < winter < autumn

Autumn & winter cohort spawn at first & second year.Spring cohort only spawns at second year.

Mukai et al. (in prep.)

Similar to observation

Aita-Noguchi et al. (submitted)

Extension to 3D Global NEMUROExtension to 3D Global NEMUROPrimary production relative to Regime Shift

Extension to 3D Global NEMUROExtension to 3D Global NEMUROPrimary production & zooplankton response to

Regime Shift

Aita-Noguchi et al. (submitted)

Saury track by Lagragian model

Fig. 2(a)swimming speed, current speed, temperature where the saury exists,(b), body length and body weight,(c) number of saury,(d) concentration of zooplankton of the point where the saury exists which is given from the results files calculated by 3-D NEMURO model.

Fish migration with 3DFish migration with 3D--NEMURONEMURO

Courtesy of Dr. Yamanaka

eNEMURO eNEMURO From Subtropical to Subarctic

Future PerspectiveFuture Perspective

1. Regional comparisonPESTed NEMURO+NEMURO.FISH is usefulapply NEMURO.FISH to other species

sardine, anchovy, mackerel, squid, …..2. Regime Shift

PESTed NEMURO+ NEMURO.FISH3D-eNEMURO + NEMURO.FISH

3. Global Change3D-eNEMURO + NEMURO.FISH

History of MODEL Task TeamHistory of MODEL Task Team

NEMURONEMURONEMURO.FISHNEMURO.FISH

Dynamic linkDynamic linkCoupled with population dynamics modelCoupled with population dynamics model

PESTPESTRegional comparisonRegional comparison

EE--NEMURONEMURO3D3D--NEMURONEMURO

ECOPATH/ECOSIM+NEMUROECOPATH/ECOSIM+NEMUROEcological Ecological Modelling Modelling special volumespecial volume

Future perspectivesFuture perspectives

Funding & SupportFunding & Support

1. Heiwa-Nakajima Foundation of Japan2. Japan International Science and Technology

Exchange Center3. City of Nemuro Japan 4. Fisheries Research Agency (FRA) of Japan5. Asia Pacific Network (APN)

North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)Collaboration of

NEMURO&NEMURO.FISH member