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Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability Analysis

Ronnie Gori, Pin Chen and Angela Pozgay

Defence Systems Analysis DivisionDefence Science and Technology Organisation

Department of Defence, Canberra ACT 2600 Australia

Presented by Thea Clark

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Outline

• Introduction• Scenario management requirements• Rationales for scenario management • Scenario Classification• DAIM-based approach• Benefits and applications• Conclusions

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Scenario and Architecture Related Activities

The ComplexityThe ComplexityADF Joint Operations ADF Joint Operations -- Generic MobileGeneric Mobile CommsComms OV1OV1

Mixture of Current and Future CapabilityMixture of Current and Future CapabilityOptus C1 (X, Ka, UHF)

Satellite GndStationSatellite GndStation

COMAST

Other HQ’s

1CCS

BDE HQ

SF

AEWC

DJFHQ DRN/JSSA

DRN/JSSA

Parakeet

CTF

LSF

Satellite Comms

UHF/VHF Comms

HF Comms

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S e n s eS e n s o rsE L IN T S e n s o rP a s s iv e S e a rc h & D e te c tio nP a ra m e t ric R e p o rt ingT e s t & T ra in in g S e n s o r S im u la t io nC O M IN T S e ns o rS e a rc h & T ra c k in gS ig n a l P ro c e s s in gT e s t & T ra in in g S e n s o r S im u la t io nA c o u s ti c S e n s o rA c tiv e /P a s s iv e S e a rc h (H u ll M o u nte d , T o w e d A rra y s , S o n o bu o y s , F a th o m e te r, V D S )A c o u s ti c S ig n a tu re R e p o r tin gS ig n a l P ro c e s s in gT e s t & T ra in in g S e n s o r S im u la t io n

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W a r fa r e F u n c tio n s

S y s te m F u n c t io n s

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..

O p e r a t io n a l A c t iv i t ie s

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Why Scenarios?Scenarios are inputs or outputs of the following defence activities:• Identification of defence strategic requirements• Identification and prioritisation of capability gaps• Study of future force and capability• Force projection• Development of a business case for capability acquisition• Defining a context for simulations, experiments and war-gaming• Determining preparedness• Planning for campaign, operations and exercises

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What is a scenario?• A description of:

an eventan military operationa military responsedeployment of forcedeployment of capabilityconfiguration of systems

• A scenario can be seen as:a context of a military responsea reference model used in planninga case study of experiments, simulations or wargames a requirement specification of capability/systemsa view of architecture (OVs)

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Architecture Complexity Embedded in a Scenario T h e C o m p l e x i t yT h e C o m p l e x i t y

A D F J o i n t O p e r a t i o n s A D F J o i n t O p e r a t i o n s -- G e n e r i c M o b i l eG e n e r i c M o b i l e C o m m sC o m m s O V 1O V 1M i x t u r e o f C u r r e n t a n d F u t u r e C a p a b i l i t yM i x t u r e o f C u r r e n t a n d F u t u r e C a p a b i l i t y

O p t u s C 1 ( X , K a , U H F )

S a t e l l i t e G n dS t a t i o n

S a t e l l i t e G n dS t a t i o n

C O M A S T

O t h e r H Q ’ s

1 C C S

B D E H Q

S F

A E W C

D J F H Q D R N /J S S A

D R N / J S S A

P a r a k e e t

C T F

L S F

S a t e l l i t e C o m m s

U H F / V H F C o m m s

H F C o m m s

Operation Scenario (capability) Level: • “N” nodes involved with different features;• Shared by all nodes involved;• Relations between scenarios.Node (platform) Level: • Each node contains one or more systems.• Each system may have sub-systems.• Interfaces:

Between nodes;Between systems;Between subsystems;Between components.

System Level:• Internal system /subsystems views.• Relations to other systems (7 possible types)

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Capability-Based Planning• Work by Paul Davis of RAND

Proposes an analytical framework with three components:a thorough understanding of capability requirementsan assessment of capability options at the level of mission or operationan ability to choose between capability levels and amongst capability options in an integrative portfolio framework that considers other factors (eg, force management), different types of risk and economic limitations.

• Need to explore a scenario space, a design space and a requirements space in a context of architecture

• Need to explore these spaces iteratively and recursively

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Scenario Management Requirements• Why is the scenario management required?

Core knowledge on force operations and capability deployment and development

Direct impact on decision making and operationRich in background and context information and knowledgeRelated to each other with high complexity Involving multiple stakeholdersLosing of knowledge due to frequent change or turnover of staffProblems and difficulties in the current practice:

No commonly agreed definitions of scenario concepts and relations;Creating, defining and managing scenarios in ad hoc manners;No mechanism supporting scenario analysis, evaluation and

validation;Based on assumptions or hypothesis;No linkage and traceability of information and knowledge to

capability and systems.

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Scenario Management Rationales• Military operation knowledge management

Scenario concepts managementScenario relation managementScenario context managementScenario management process

• Innovations Model-basedScenario repositoryRule-based scenario analysisBeing part of Defence architecture management

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Types of Scenarios and Relevant ConceptsStrategic Level

Operation Areas and Levels

• Joint• Air• Army• Navy• Coalition

Capability• Study• Acquisition

Strategic Scenarios

Planning ScenariosOperation ScenariosDeployment ScenariosPreparedness ScenariosReference Scenarios

• OR study scenarios (Sim/Exp/Wargame)• Testing scenarios

Capability Operation ScenariosConfiguration Scenarios

Military Response OptionsStrategic DriversJoint Operation ConceptsContingency Planning

Operation PlansCON-plansCampaign PlansEffect AssessmentMission Capability Force ProjectionForce Transformation

FPSCONOPsCapability PlansOVs

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Scenario Attributes, Formats and Context• Different scenarios have:

different attributes,different formats,different contexts (relations to other scenarios or other concepts).

• Scenario definition — the first step towards Scenario ManagementClass definition, including:

Attribute definitions Context definitionFormat definition

Also possibly, RulesProcesses

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What is DAIM?• A holistic information model represents the whole capability, system and organisation architecture space;• A knowledge schema for construction of the body of knowledge for Defence capability, systems and enterprise, which include:

Taxonomical structures for definitions of concepts and classes (around 100 classes) grouped into six concept packages:

Scenario PackageSystem PackageArchitecture PackageEnterprise PackageDocument PackageProject Package;

Ontological linkages defining relations among concepts and classes, and across the packages for relation management of concepts and objects; and

A basis for object context management through meta data definitions.

• A conceptual model for generating a data schema for the development of an enterprise architecture library or repository.

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Scenario Class Definition Example

Architecture class

System class

Platform class

Other scenario classes

Project class

The ComplexityThe ComplexityADF Joint Operations ADF Joint Operations -- Generic MobileGeneric Mobile CommsComms OV1OV1

Mixture of Current and Future CapabilityMixture of Current and Future CapabilityOptus C1 (X, Ka, UHF)

Satellite GndStationSatellite GndStation

COMAST

Other HQ’s

1CCS

BDE HQ

SF

AEWC

DJFHQ DRN/JSSA

DRN/JSSA

Parakeet

CTF

LSF

Satellite Comms

UHF/VHF Comms

HF Comms

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Requirements for Scenario Based Knowledge Management

Should allow a user to pose, and then answer, the following questions:

• How can Defence plan and evaluate their capabilities in multipleoperational scenarios?

• How many scenarios can Defence cope with, in parallel, at a given level of capability?

• How can Defence analyse conflicts, shortage or gaps of capabilities in coping with multiple scenarios?

• How can Defence analyse impact and consequence of the change to an instantiated operational scenarios to other scenarios due to the constraints of capability requirements shared among those scenarios?

• How can Defence Information Environment information flows be examined in different warfighting contexts?

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A view of a Platform-based Scenario Space

The ComplexityThe ComplexityADF Joint Operations ADF Joint Operations -- Generic MobileGeneric Mobile CommsComms OV1OV1

Mixture of Current and Future CapabilityMixture of Current and Future CapabilityOptus C1 (X, Ka, UHF)

Satellite GndStationSatellite GndStation

COMAST

Other HQ’s

1CCS

BDE HQ

SF

AEWC

DJFHQ DRN/JSSA

DRN/JSSA

Parakeet

CTF

LSF

Satellite Comms

UHF/VHF Comms

HF Comms

CoalitionScenarios

CapabilityDevelopment

Scenarios

Force PlanningScenarios

C2 OperationScenarios

R & DScenarios

National Strategic Scenarios

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Cross Concept Relation Management

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Future Work

Need to:• Start to engage with stakeholders• Develop use cases with potential users• Refine and improve the information models• Further develop the DEAL concept demonstrator

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Architecture-Based Capability Analysis

• Scenario-based Capability analysisScenario classification analysisScenario dependency analysisCapability gap analysisScenario conflict analysisScenario-based interoperability analysis

• Platform-based Capability AnalysisPlatform operation analysisPlatform dependency analysisPlatform-based interoperability analysis

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• System-based Capability AnalysisSystem relation/dependency analysisSystem interoperability analysisSystem interface analysisComplexity analysis of SoS

• Project-based Capability AnalysisProject dependency/relation analysisProject schedule analysis

• Impact AnalysisFrom Scenario to: platforms, systems, and projectsFrom Platform to: scenarios, systems, and projectsFrom System to: scenarios, platforms, projectsFrom project to: scenarios, platforms and systems

Architecture-Based Capability Analysis

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Conclusions• Government has clearly articulated its requirements for rigorous

advice regarding capability options• Complexities of concept development and experimentation,

capability analysis, prioritisation and development require significantly enhanced computer based analytical support

• Have developed an information model (taxonomy, ontology and meta-data) that relates scenarios, the results of scenario “executions” with forces, platforms and capabilities• Should be extensible to capture experimental results and

analytical outcomes.• Will allow users to analyse and compare scenarios and their

experimental outcomes together with their relationships to forces, platforms and capabilities.

• Part of a larger information model, with links to projects, systems and architectures.

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Questions