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Model-based analysis of FIA panel data2001 to 2008
Lodgepole Pine in Colorado
Ray CzaplewskiInterior West FIAFort Collins, CO
4/13/2010 1IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 2IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 3IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 4IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 5IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 6IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
FIA panel data for Colorado Lodgepole Pine
Standing dead LP trees
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 7IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Shouldn’t these variables be correlated?
Standing dead LP trees
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 8IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for LP forest area
t t-1
Lodgepole pine Lodgepole pine
area area
LP forest area
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 9IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for LP mortality during past yearInsect damage
Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
t-1
t
Dead LP treesLive LP trees
past year 50% Insect damage
no insect damage
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 10IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for LP mortality during past yearNo insect damage
t t-1
Dead LP trees past year Live LP trees3%
No insect damage No insect damage
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 11IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for live LP treesNo insect damage
t t-1 t-1
Live trees Live trees Dead trees pst year 103%
No insect damage No insect damag No insect damage
Live LP treesNo insect damage
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 12IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for live LP treesInsect damage
t t-1
Live LP trees Live LP trees 200%
Insect damage Insect damage
Live LP treesInsect damage
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 13IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for recent dead trees2 to 5 years since mortality year
tt-1 t-1
t
dead trees with dead trees withDead LP trees
no insect damage + insect damage2 years prior
1 year prior 1 year prior
Dead LP trees Dead LP trees
3 years prior 2 years
t-1
t t-1
t t-1
prior
Dead LP trees Dead LP trees
4 years prior 3 years prior
Dead LP trees Dead LP trees
5 years prior 4 years prior
4/13/2010 14IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model standing dead LP trees6 or more years since mortality
Standing dead LP trees
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
t t-1 t-1
Standing dead Standing dead Dead LP trees95%
LP trees LP trees 5 years prior
4/13/2010 15IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Simple model for entire LP population
t t-1
t-1t
t
Lodgepole pine Lodgepole pine
area area
Dead LP treesLive LP trees
past year 50% Insect damage
no insect damage
Dead LP trees past year Live L3%
No insect damage
t-1
t t-1 t-1
t
P trees
No insect damage
Live trees Live trees Dead trees pst year 103%
No insect damage No insect damag No insect damage
Live LP trees Live LP 200%
Insect damage
t-1
tt-1 t-1
trees
Insect damage
dead trees with dead trees withDead LP trees
no insect damage + insect damage2 years prior
1 year prior 1 year prior
Dead LP trees
3 years prior
t t-1
t t-1
t t-1
Dead LP trees
2 years prior
Dead LP trees Dead LP trees
4 years prior 3 years prior
Dead LP trees Dead LP trees
5 years prior 4 years prior
Standing dead
LP tree
t t-1 t-1
Standing dead Dead LP trees95%
s LP trees 5 years prior
4/13/2010 16IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Results
4/13/2010 17IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for LP forest area
t t-1
Lodgepole pine Lodgepole pine
area area
FIA panel
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
0.00
0.05
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
4/13/2010 18IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for live LP treesNo insect damage
t t-1 t-1
Live trees Live trees Dead trees pst year 103%
No insect damage No insect damag No insect damage
FIA panel
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
0
10
20
30
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
4/13/2010 19IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for standing dead LP trees6 or more years since mortality
FIA panel
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
t t-1 t-1
Standing dead Standing dead Dead LP trees95%
LP trees LP trees 5 years prior
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
4/13/2010 20IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for Dead LP trees past yearNo insect damage
t t-1
Dead LP trees past year Live LP trees3%
No insect damage No insect damage
FIA panel
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
0.00
0.05
0.10
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
4/13/2010 21IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for Dead LP trees past yearInsect damage
FIA panel
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
t-1
t
Dead LP treesLive LP trees
past year 50% Insect damage
no insect damage
0.0
0.5
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
4/13/2010 22IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for live LP treesInsect damage
t t-1
Live LP trees Live LP trees 200%
Insect damage Insect damage
FIA panel
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model
4/13/2010 23IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
Estimates for live LP treesInsect damage
FIA panel
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model 2x increase/year
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model 1x increase/year
0
1
2
3
2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Model 4x increase/year
4/13/2010 24IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
SUMMARY
• Simple demographic model can improve time-series estimates with FIA panel data
• Does not require re-measurement data for time-series estimates
• Does not require moving average or “temporally indifferent” FIA estimator
• Potential for testing alternative hypotheses regarding rates of change per year
4/13/2010 25IW FIA User Group Webcast Ray Czaplewski, Fort Collins CO
