MODEL ADVANCEMENT COMMITTEE (MAC) MEETING ‐ APRIL 6, 2017

D1 REGIONAL PLANNING MODEL (D1RPM V1.0.3)

Polk

Glades

Okeechobee

Highlands

Hardee

Hendry

Charlotte

Collier

DeSoto

Lee

Manatee

Sarasota

• 12 County Area(previously individual models)

• 5,662 zones

• 2010 base year

• 2018 existing+committed

• 2040 cost feasible

• Support for 6 MPO LRTPs

• Compatible with CUBE 6.4.2

The D1RPM

Is a 4-step Model, trip-based model

Trip Generation.

Trip Distribution.

Mode Choice.

Assignment.

Incorporates many of the Transit Model Update

recommendations

Developed by FDOT Systems Planning, in conjunction with

FTA guidance in 2012.

Uses Florida (ACS) 2010 data and trip generation rates.

Trip purposes stratified by income: 45 “markets” include

NHBO and HBCU purposes.

Diurnal Factors split trips into 4 periods (AM, MD, PM, NT).

A Feedback Loop is included to account for the effects of

congestion on distribution and mode choice.

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

TRANSITMODEL

Post-Processes

Reporting

Diurnal Factors

Seeded with “real” speed for highway and

transit vehicles

Trip Table split by TODtra

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ee

dba

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Includes Transit Prep, Transit Path, Mode

Choice and Transit Assignment

Assignments

The D1RPM

Updated 2010, Florida Based, Trip Generation Data

Table HBW Trip Production Rates

Number of W orkers in H ousehold H ousehold Income

H ousehold

Autos W rks0 W rks1 W rks2 W rks3+

$0-$24999 0.000 1.000 1.783 3.500

$25000-$49999 0.000 1.000 1.783 3.500

$50000-$74999 0.000 1.000 1.783 3.500

$75000+

V eh0

0.000 1.000 1.783 3.500

$0-$24999 0.000 1.085 2.272 4.389

$25000-$49999 0.000 1.332 3.145 4.389

$50000-$74999 0.000 1.145 2.172 4.389

$75000+

V eh1

0.000 0.954 2.094 4.389

$0-$24999 0.000 1.581 2.974 4.102

$25000-$49999 0.000 1.604 3.171 4.102

$50000-$74999 0.000 1.572 2.863 4.102

$75000+

V eh2

0.000 1.330 3.111 4.102

$0-$24999 0.000 1.595 3.130 5.075

$25000-$49999 0.000 2.297 3.109 5.075

$50000-$74999 0.000 1.967 3.247 5.799

$75000+

V eh3+

0.000 1.551 3.119 5.799

Table 1 Trip Attraction Rates

Trip Purpose

Industrial Employment

Service Employment

Commercial Employment

Households School Enroll.

Coeff. t-Stat Coeff. t-Stat Coeff. t-Stat Coeff. t-Stat

HBW Inc1 0.0663 1.3 0.0910 7.4 0.2218 7.1 HBW Inc2 0.4764 6.9 0.1943 11.5 0.3642 8.5 HBW Inc3 0.1457 2.6 0.1932 14.3 0.2560 7.4 HBW Inc4 0.5202 7.9 0.4225 26.5 0.3132 7.7 HBSh 3.2805 56.0 HBSR 0.1199 1.0 0.2359 8.0 0.6814 8.6 0.7368 35.5 HBO 0.4910 12.1 1.3213 12.9 1.1578 39.8 HBSc 1.326 HBU 0.549 NHBW 0.6346 7.6 0.4534 22.1 0.7118 13.0 0.1773 12.3 NHBO 0.2443 7.5 1.947 23.6 0.7514 32.1

Table HB College/University and HB School Trip Production Rates

Household Size Trip Purpose

Household Autos

/Income Size1 Size2 Size3 Size4+

HB College/University 0.016 0.036 0.266 0.363 HB School

All 0.000 0.042 0.491 1.623

The D1RPM

Mode Choice Procedures

Very similar to the transit methodology we have been using for years, but with some new “wrinkles”

Use of REWALK for pre-processing of transit access-links.

Transit routes may include dwell at stops, particularly at “Transit Centers”.

Changes wait-time from ½ headway to 5 minutes.

Uses (new) recommended Mode Choice coefficients.

Mode Choice accommodates non-motorized modes of travel.

Person Trips

Auto Transit Non Mot

Drive

Alone

Shared

Ride

SR3+

Walk PnR KnR

LOCSR2 PRJ LOC PRJ LOC PRJ

Walk Bike

The D1RPM

D1RPM 2010 Model

Airport Trip Model A unique airport trip generation (based on

enplanements) and distribution program allows

trips from SRQ, PGD & RSW to travel into

tourist and other non-residential destinations at a

higher rate.

The D1RPM

The FLSWM 2010 Model (partial)

Truck Trip Model Inter-state and intra-state Freight

Truck trips from the State-wide Model

are included as heavy trucks which

move in and through D1.

Intermodal logistic centers (ILC) are

included.

The D1RPM

Unique Procedures

The LRTP CF networks include all roadway improvements proposed during the LRTP process.

The field “LRTP_KEY” is used to easily include or exclude proposed roadway projects over the lifetime of the model.

Projects that did not make it into the “cost feasible” model, may be advanced as funding opportunities arise.

Any roadway with a LRTP_KEY<>0 is excluded from the UNLOADED.NET in subsequent model steps.

This has proved to be a great time-saver allowing proposed improvements to be easily shown graphically.

Assignment Procedures

MSA of congested speeds on each Feedback Loop.

Relative Gap = 0.0012, Enhanced, Smoothed.

Optional: Select-Link or Select-node or PATHFILE.

The D1RPM

The D1RPM User Interface

The D1RPM - Current Model Update

COUNTY SUBAREA REFINEMENTS

Charlotte / Lee Babcock Ranch NOPC and CPA

Charlotte / Lee SR 31 from SR 80 to CR 74

Collier Naples Downtown Mobility Study

Collier to Glades SR 29 from Oil Well to SR 27

Districtwide I-75 Auxiliary Lanes

Lee I-75 @ Corkscrew

Lee I-75 @ Colonial

Lee US 41 lane diet

Manatee Central Manatee (CMNAA)

Manatee SR 64 E of I-75 – Roundabout Evaluation

COUNTY SUBAREA REFINEMENTS

Polk Memorial Hwy Lane Reduction (Lakeland)

Polk SR 37 Lane Diet (Lakeland)

Polk US 27 from Washington to Posner

Sarasota I-75 / Fruitville Interchange Area

Sarasota Fruitville lane diet – East of US 41

Sarasota US 41 / Gulfstream Area Study

Sarasota SR 72 E of I-75

A “live” model: v1.0.3 v1.0.4

Base Year (2010), E+C (2018) and Cost Feasible Models (2040)

Update to incorporate recent project level subarea refinements

Incorporate any MPO amendments, revisions or corrections

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Development

2015 Base Year Data Development

A. 2015 Highway (GIS)

New Roads

Roadway Realignments / Deletions

Lane Changes / Median Changes

Directional Changes

Traffic Signal Locations (type, phasing if available)

B. 2014 - 2016 Traffic Counts (GIS)

Count Location Shapefiles

Classification Counts

AADT Database

Hourly Count Database (where available)

Toll Facility Locations/Counts/Type/Fees

C. 2015 Land Use Data (GIS)

Census Data

Parcel Data

Hotel/Motel/Time Share Data (rooms and employees)

Schools (K-12) - Students and Employees

College/University - Students, Resident Students, and Employees

Special Generators (ex. Legoland, beach parking)

Airport Master Plans

Major Freight Facilities (ex. ILC)

Employment

DRI Data

Potential TAZ splits

D. 2015 Parking Cost

CBD Areas (Long Term, Short Term)

E. Transit Shapefiles

Route Alignment

Park and Ride / Kiss and Ride Locations (Spaces, Cost)

Transfer Centers

Stops by route

F. Route Maps w/ Stop Locations

Schedules (hours of service and headways)

G. Transit Route Ridership

Systemwide Annual / Daily Ridership

Route Daily Ridership (by Fare Category)

Park and Ride / Kiss and Ride Use

Number of Transfers

H. Transit Stops and Stations

Utilzation by Stop (ex. APC data)

I. Transit Fares

By Mode - Local Bus, Express Bus

Discount Fares - (Bus pass rates for children, seniors, passes)

Transfer Fares

Test Case Implementation (D1RPM)

Assumes Level 3 Automation (connected vehicles, driver available for occasional control).

Designed for “what if…” Modeling, as well as, LRTP Modeling.

Zero Saturation Rate = adopted model rates and assignment volumes.

Saturation Rate (0% to 100%)

Lookup Tables reflect Saturation Rate and provide:

Estimate AV Trips by TAZ

Estimate Roadway Capacity Adjustments (reduced following distance)

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

May Include Modeling Autonomous Vehicles (AV / CV)

FT 95 may be restricted to AV only

Home Based AV Auto Ownership weighted by Income.

Roadway capacity adjusted based upon Facility Type

and Saturation Rate.

AV included as a separate trip purpose

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

Modeling Autonomous Vehicles

Capacity Adjustment Factors - based on AV Saturation Rate and Facility Type:

Propensity to Own AV based on Saturation Rate and Income:

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

Modeling Autonomous Vehicles

Network with Capacity Adjustments.

Trip Tables with AV and non-AV by purpose.

Loaded Network with AV purpose(s).

TRIP TABLES BY PURPOSE

HBW1 HBW2 HBSH HBSR HBO HBSC HBCU NHB TT IE EE-a EE-t HT AIR

NONAV 911,230 1,318,880 1,661,265 1,297,593 2,166,552 579,151 243,456 2,467,023 543,351 230,269 50,076 5,434 40,337 12,447

AV 473,119 853,911 963,474 793,701 1,316,413 338,754 142,306 2,277,252 501,555 212,556 46,224 5,016 37,234 11,489

TOTAL 1,384,349 2,172,791 2,624,739 2,091,294 3,482,965 917,905 385,762 4,744,275 1,044,906 442,825 96,300 10,450 77,571 23,936

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

Modeling Autonomous Vehicles

Trip Generation

Additional SE data allows model to pick RS areas for consideration.

Based on Population-Employment Density and Saturation Rate.

Designated Service Areas

Trip Distribution

RS Trip Length.

Vehicle Trip Tables (RS and Non-RS).

Non-Revenue “Roaming” Trips.

Assignment

Pre-Assigned to Service Areas.

Transit (access & egress) via RS.

RS Included as a separate trip purpose.

“… a paradigm shift in travel behavior (again)”

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

May Include Modeling Ridesource (RS) Trips

Designated Service Areas Model RS Generation Mapped Over Uber Hot Spots

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

Modeling Ridesource Trips

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update Modeling Ridesource Trips

Reporting for AV and RS

The D1RPM -- 2015 Model Update

Modeling Ridesource Trips

EXTRA SLIDES

Use procedures to quantify trips in Bicycle and Walk “friendly” Communities.

The D1RPM -- Future Updates

Modeling Other Modes

Estimation of bike/pedestrian use

The D1RPM -- Future Updates

Network

Use of “true-shape”, as needed.

Use of posted speeds.

Trip Generation

Use EE IE data FLSWM

Time-of-Day (TOD) factoring here

Trip Distribution

Distribution by TOD

TRANSITMODEL

Transit periods to match TOD

Mode choice calibration by TOD

Assignment

Tolls by TOD

Enhanced reporting