Mobility

World Business Council for

Sustainable DevelopmentGeneva, September 2007

Doing Business with the World - The new role of corporate leadership in global development

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Overview

The global view: Mobilizing a growing

population

Tomorrow’s market: projected transport

demand growth by mode

Projection of number of motorized vehicles

ICT around the world

3

Transport has been critical to unlocking

resources and promoting economic

development

Basic premise: Passenger transport demand is determined by population and income1

Data source for pie charts: UN 2001. United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2001.

World population 1950-2030 (billions of people)

1950Total Pop. 2.52

2030Total Pop. 8.112000

Total Pop. 6.061975Total Pop. 4.07

Source: UN (2001)

The global view: Mobilizing a growing population

Lack of access to transportation, goods and

information are both symptoms of poverty and key

factors in keeping families, communities and nations poor

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Personal transport

Tomorrow’s market: projected transport demand growth by mode

OECD Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trilli

ons

of p

asse

nger

-kilo

met

ers Air Transport

Passenger rail

Bus & minibus

2&3-wheeler

LDV

Average Annual Growth Rate: 2000-2050 (%)OECD non-OECD

LDV 0.54% 3.86%2&3-wheeler 0.34% 2.09%Bus & minibus 0.00% -0.02%Pass Rail 1.21% 2.55%Air Transport 2.53% 4.53%Total 0.92% 2.36%

Source: IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculationsGraphs generated by George Eads from Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum presentation

Average Annual Growth Rate: 2000-2050 (%)OECD non-OECD

Trucks 1.69% 3.47%Rail 1.46% 2.57%Total 1.61% 3.00%

OECD Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trilli

ons

of to

nne-

kilo

met

ers

Rail

Trucks

Goods transportComparison between OECD and non-OECD countries

non-OECD Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trilli

ons

of p

asse

nger

-kilo

met

ers Air Transport

Pass Rail

Bus & minibus

2&3-wheeler

LDV

non-OECD Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trilli

ons

of to

nne-

kilo

met

ers

Rail

Trucks

5

Projection of number of motorized vehicles

Source: WBCSD 2004, IEA/SMP transport model

Total Stock of Motorized Vehicles (millions)

Today there are an estimated one billion vehicles worldwide

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ICT around the world

Digital technologies create gains from transactional efficiency, improved manufacturing controls, and energy efficiency in processes.

"Rural people have systematically less access to ICT than their urban counterpart." 

-UNESCO. 2004. "Transforming the Digital Divide into

Digital Opportunities for Rural Populations"

Penetration rates (%) for internet and telecommunications

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Needs & Challenges

Societal needs

What are the challenges?

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Societal needs

Percentage of people within 30 minutes walk of an all weather road

Road related deaths, 2000

Traffic fatalities in low and middle-

income countries are expected to increase by 80% between 2000

and 2020.1

In rural areas the World Bank estimates that about 900

million inhabitants lack access to reliable transport.2

9

7.48.8

10.9

13.2 13.6

4.74.2

0

4

8

12

16

WesternEurope

Industrialcountries

LatinAmerica

Asia Transitioncountries

Africa Sub-SaharanAfrica

(%)

Africa is impacted by high handling times and charges at the ports, poor road and rail networks, higher operating cost of vehicles, unnecessary road blocks,

various taxes & transit charges

Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Economic Report on Africa 2004, ECA, from official sources. Available at http://www.uneca.org/ERA2004/

Freight cost as a percentage of total import value

What are the challenges?

Poor regulatory frameworks and

burdensome bureaucracy

hinder improved mobility in many

developing nations

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Opportunities

How can business contribute?

What is the market size?

Key messages

WBCSD Resources

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By adopting the goals outlined in the WBCSD Mobility 2030 report

Developing new renewable energy solutions to power the mobility sector

Assisting with more effective urban planning and infrastructure development

Developing virtual mobility solutions

Tomorrow’s market

How can business contribute?

“If emissions from cars are to be cut, engines will have to become dramatically more efficient, or there will have to be a

technological breakthrough to replace petrol with a clean fuel.”

–The Economist The drive for low emissions (31 May 2007)

Corn ethanol?

Cellulosic

ethanol?

Biobutanol?

Hybrid?

Hydrogen

fuel cells?

Nano-

technology?

Bus rapid

transit?

Transportatio

n demand

managem

ent?

Public-private partnerships are increasingly being used to solve mobility

problems

12Source: WRI and IFC. The Next 4 Billion. 2007.

There is a significantly large market that is yet to

be connected

What is the market size?

BOP spending on transportation$179.3 billion

BOP spending on ICT$51.4 billion

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Key messages

For governments, an effective policy framework for sustainable mobility can:

Improve levels of economic development and social progress

Create improved and more interconnected transportation infrastructure

Improve urban planning and the long term sustainability of mobility solutions in cities

Improve the environmental and social performance of the mobility sector through mitigation of negative environmental and social impacts

For business, investing in sustainable mobility can:

Create competitive advantage by developing new and affordable technologies Create new markets for transport solutions and ICT

Reduce transportation costs and improve the efficiency of supply chain sourcing and product distribution to markets

Reduce the lost time and security issues affecting the workforce from transport-related problems

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WBCSD Resources

Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainabilityMobility 2030 is the final report of the WBCSD's Sustainable Mobility project. This publication identifies seven sustainable mobility goals and establishes a set of indicators to help measure the effectiveness of the various options.

Mobility as a Driver for Economic Development: Tanzania Case Study The Mobility for Development workstream builds on the Sustainable Mobility project. The four case studies that form a key part of this work programme include Tanzania, India, China and Brazil. The Tanzania case study is the first of four assessments of mobility challenges and opportunities. The final “Mobility for Development” report will be published in the second half of 2008.

www.wbcsd.org/web/development.htm

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