Mobile Research: Personal Perspectives on Vision & an Industry Context

WWRF - London, June 2002 11

Mobile Research:Mobile Research:Personal Perspectives on Personal Perspectives on

Vision & an Industry ContextVision & an Industry Context

Dr Walter TuttlebeeDr Walter Tuttlebee

The Virtual Centre of Excellence in Mobile & Personal The Virtual Centre of Excellence in Mobile & Personal Communications Communications - Mobile VCE -- Mobile VCE -

www.www.mobilevcemobilevce.com.com


IntroductionIntroduction


Mobile VCE Mobile VCE Mobile VCE is a not-for-profit company established in 1996 Mobile VCE is a not-for-profit company established in 1996

by the mobile communications industry to facilitate by the mobile communications industry to facilitate highly cost-effectivehighly cost-effective industry-led industry-led long-term researchlong-term researchin all aspects of mobile & personal communicationsin all aspects of mobile & personal communications

Mobile VCE’s research is…Mobile VCE’s research is… Defined by our industrial members, supported by our academic members’ Defined by our industrial members, supported by our academic members’

new technical concepts & ideasnew technical concepts & ideas Steered by our Industrial Steering Groups (member companies) who have Steered by our Industrial Steering Groups (member companies) who have

free access to resulting patentsfree access to resulting patents Funded by our industrial members’ annual subscriptions and competitively-Funded by our industrial members’ annual subscriptions and competitively-

won Government funding, which results in very high financial gearing won Government funding, which results in very high financial gearing


A Unique Company for a Unique Industry- Long Term research steered by the Industry -


Research Vision in Mobile VCE The Influence of Vision The Process and the Mobile VCE Vision

Industry Context Recent Industry Developments Business Issues Services & Applications Technologies

Concluding Remarks A Lesson from History ?

Talk StructureTalk Structure


VisionVision


A Personal Story 1988 – A presentation to the Directors…

What you do and where you What you do and where you go is conditioned by your go is conditioned by your Vision…Vision…

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002e

1 Billion: 1st half 2002

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Action is influenced by Vision…


Mobile VCE Vision Process Mobile VCE Vision Process

Future Mobile Vision Future Mobile Vision Scenario 2010 – a vision created in 1997/1998Scenario 2010 – a vision created in 1997/1998 Used to define the structure of our Core 2 research Used to define the structure of our Core 2 research

programmeprogramme Resulted in the identification of key enablers and the Resulted in the identification of key enablers and the

definition of three key technical research streamsdefinition of three key technical research streams Wireless AccessWireless Access Networks & ServicesNetworks & Services Software Based SystemsSoftware Based Systems

Presented to the WSI ~2 years ago – but still valid…Presented to the WSI ~2 years ago – but still valid…

Vision GroupVision Group A small group of (mainly) industry players A small group of (mainly) industry players Restructured in 2002 to review and maintain the VisionRestructured in 2002 to review and maintain the Vision Provides a ‘Vision Umbrella’ for all our researchProvides a ‘Vision Umbrella’ for all our research Monitors activities of, and seeks to link with, other Monitors activities of, and seeks to link with, other

similar external future vision groups across the globesimilar external future vision groups across the globe


Vision 2010 – the 5 ElementsVision 2010 – the 5 Elements

2010

DiverseUser

Devices

FullyConverged

Services

UbiquitousMobileAccess Software

Dependency

AutonomousNetworks2010

DiverseUser

Devices

FullyConverged

Services

UbiquitousMobileAccess Software

Dependency

AutonomousNetworks


Vision 2010 Elements (1)Vision 2010 Elements (1)Fully converged services

Personal communications, information systems, broadcast and entertainment will have merged into a seamless pool of content available according to the user's requirement. The user will have access to a wider range of services and applications, available conveniently, securely and in a manner reflecting the user's personal preferences.

Ubiquitous mobile accessThe dominant mode of access to this pool of content will be mobile, accounting for all voice communications, the majority of high-speed information services, and a significant proportion of broadcast and entertainment. Mobile access to commercial and retail services will be the norm, replacing current practices in most cases.

Diverse user devicesThe user will be served by a wide variety of low-cost mobile devices to access content conveniently and seamlessly. These devices will commonly be wearable - in some cases disposable - and will normally be powered independently of the mains. Devices will interact with users in a multi-sensory manner, encompassing not only speech, hearing and sight, but also the other human senses, biological and environmental data pertinent to the application. Special devices tailored for people with disabilities will be commonplace.


Autonomous networks

Underlying these systems will be highly autonomous adaptive networks capable of self-management of their structure to meet users' changing and evolving demands, for both services and capacity. Efficient and cost-effective use of the radio spectrum will be an essential element of their operation, and here too autonomy and self-management will be the norm.

Software dependency

Intelligent Mobile Agents will exist throughout the networks and in user devices, acting continually to simplify tasks and ensure transparency to the user. These Mobile Agents will act at all levels, from managing an individual user's content preferences, to organising and reconfiguring major elements of networks.

Vision 2010 Elements (2)Vision 2010 Elements (2)

Note: The above summarises the 1998 vision statement,Note: The above summarises the 1998 vision statement,most of which remains intact, but has been extended…most of which remains intact, but has been extended…


Industry StatusIndustry Status& Drivers& Drivers


Recent Industry DevelopmentsRecent Industry Developments Telecom Industry Stocks…Telecom Industry Stocks…

Stock Market made an analogue-digital transition, with Stock Market made an analogue-digital transition, with mobile going from ‘superhype’ to ‘dotcom disaster’ statusmobile going from ‘superhype’ to ‘dotcom disaster’ status

‘‘Beyond 3G’ is out of fashion in Europe (but not in Asia) Beyond 3G’ is out of fashion in Europe (but not in Asia)

Pragmatic Realities of 3GPragmatic Realities of 3G 3G technology must be 3G technology must be seenseen to work to work Services & applications must be identified & introduced Services & applications must be identified & introduced

that customers are that customers are seenseen to like to like Operators must generate new revenue / increase ARPUOperators must generate new revenue / increase ARPU

‘‘Adjacent’ Markets & TechnologiesAdjacent’ Markets & Technologies PANs & WLANs – hotspot access ?PANs & WLANs – hotspot access ? Digital broadcast – DAB, DTT – wideband delivery ?Digital broadcast – DAB, DTT – wideband delivery ? Threats or opportunities ?Threats or opportunities ?


Recent Industry DevelopmentsRecent Industry Developments

First 3G network launchesFirst 3G network launches Japan – October 2001 – DoCoMoJapan – October 2001 – DoCoMo

Technology is becoming proven, arguably less hassle than Technology is becoming proven, arguably less hassle than GSM introductionGSM introduction

Korea – IMT-2000 stalls selling phones on the streetsKorea – IMT-2000 stalls selling phones on the streets Europe – December – Monaco, Isle of Man Europe – December – Monaco, Isle of Man

Small single-mode 3G networks, service trials and testbedsSmall single-mode 3G networks, service trials and testbeds

Interest in Future (R)Evolution is growing in Interest in Future (R)Evolution is growing in AsiaAsia WWRF launched in Europe, global involvement growingWWRF launched in Europe, global involvement growing Significant interest in ‘4G’ in AsiaSignificant interest in ‘4G’ in Asia

Japan - DoCoMo 4G testbed being builtJapan - DoCoMo 4G testbed being built Korea - MIC $100m investment announced Feb 2002 Korea - MIC $100m investment announced Feb 2002

Philosophically, ‘4G’ is Philosophically, ‘4G’ is NOTNOT mobile phones mobile phones


Near term - M-commerce Requires new cross-industry partnerships

and ‘Out of the box’ thinking The big opportunity for mobile is …

to facilitate micropayment transactions to facilitate other ‘business spaces’ and to create entirely new ones

Degree of Openness ? Open Platforms, Content, Applications, Protocols ? Revenue Sharing Only way to multiply content & services

Longer Term Strategic Shifts Relative Shifts of Power within the Value Chain Opportunities to Enable other Industries

Business DriversBusiness Drivers


Personal ‘Active’ Services The Killer Application is … A multiplicity of mass-customised applications

Productivity, Entertainment, Work/Life Balance

Personal ‘Passive’ Services Passive management of services and environment, based on learned personal preferences

‘Personal’ environment – home, car & office ‘External’ environment – plazas, shared places, virtual locations offered through the TV / Internet

Require a dynamically interlinked electronic environment Personal devices & possessions Shared devices & environment

Services & ApplicationsServices & Applications


Technologies (1)Technologies (1)

Higher data rate air interfacesHigher data rate air interfaces How high is high enough ?How high is high enough ?

100 Mb/s – is it 4G’s equivalent of the 3G 2 Mb/s dream ?100 Mb/s – is it 4G’s equivalent of the 3G 2 Mb/s dream ? Access technologies and enhancements neededAccess technologies and enhancements needed

MIMO, VAA, relaying, narrowbeam terminals, efficiency metrics, etcMIMO, VAA, relaying, narrowbeam terminals, efficiency metrics, etc

Self-managing & Ad hoc networksSelf-managing & Ad hoc networks WLANs & PANsWLANs & PANs

Development timescales & practical performance limitations ?Development timescales & practical performance limitations ? New commercial opportunities for mobile operatorsNew commercial opportunities for mobile operators

Robust & secure dynamic management Robust & secure dynamic management Reconfigurable devices – possible driversReconfigurable devices – possible drivers

At the lower protocol layersAt the lower protocol layers 5 GHz WLAN5 GHz WLAN Handheld video codec evolution & capacity managementHandheld video codec evolution & capacity management

At the higher protocol layersAt the higher protocol layers ‘‘Passive’ and ‘Adaptive’ applicationsPassive’ and ‘Adaptive’ applications Peer-to-peer services – next step from MMS ?Peer-to-peer services – next step from MMS ? Operator desires for customer-isation (churn reduction)Operator desires for customer-isation (churn reduction)


Technologies (2)Technologies (2)

Network dimensioning Network dimensioning Tools, traffic mixes, unknown applicationsTools, traffic mixes, unknown applications

Delivery of end-to-end QoS Delivery of end-to-end QoS The ability to sell differentiated QoS services offers to The ability to sell differentiated QoS services offers to

open up new revenue streamsopen up new revenue streams ““All-IP” (v6 ?)All-IP” (v6 ?)

Circuit switched Circuit switched →→ IP(v4) IP(v4) →→ IPv6 IPv6 ““All major infrastructure projects take longer than planned”All major infrastructure projects take longer than planned” The current climate does not aid the transition timescales in The current climate does not aid the transition timescales in

Europe, but cf initiatives in Asia (eg e-Japan)Europe, but cf initiatives in Asia (eg e-Japan)

Openness - reconfigurable services, networks & Openness - reconfigurable services, networks & protocolsprotocols

Potentially a key service (hence revenue) enablerPotentially a key service (hence revenue) enabler Security mechanisms – robust, yet in an open Security mechanisms – robust, yet in an open

environmentenvironment Distributed management – in an inter-networked worldDistributed management – in an inter-networked world Agents – real time transparent service negotiationAgents – real time transparent service negotiation


Timing & DirectionTiming & Direction

Research is not what it used to be…Research is not what it used to be… The industry needs some ‘short term wins’…The industry needs some ‘short term wins’… BUT … it still cannot afford to ignore the need for the long-BUT … it still cannot afford to ignore the need for the long-

term research term research

Long term research must take into account the Long term research must take into account the immediate needs and the evolution paths that immediate needs and the evolution paths that are emerging are emerging This implies a need for industrial involvement with academic This implies a need for industrial involvement with academic

research, such as seen in WWRF, shaping the 6FP research research, such as seen in WWRF, shaping the 6FP research agenda, and Mobile VCE, undertaking researchagenda, and Mobile VCE, undertaking research


Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks


Identify & question hidden assumptions underlying the Vision…

1987: UMTS Vision“One terminal to do everything :

cellular, cordless, paging, PMR, etc”

Minimal penetration of mobile phones Service concept: primarily voice


Several visions, still emerging

Minimal penetration of m-commerce Service concept: primarily ‘active’

Primarily ‘phones’

2002: Beyond 3G Vision


Mobile VCE - past Though based in the UK, NOT a national programme A global industry member base

Directing our research and using our results A UK academic research base,strong expertise Increasing contributions on the international scene

Mobile VCE - future Establishing more global linkages Exploring opportunity for non-UK academic excellence 6FP – submitted Expressions of Interest

A true International Network of Excellence Concepts and Technologies for Integrated Projects

Eg Virtual Antenna Arrays, SDR Reconfiguration Other development initiatives being explored



Action stems from Vision…Action stems from Vision… Vision - If you are involved in similar vision-creation Vision - If you are involved in similar vision-creation

activities, the Mobile VCE Vision Group would like to activities, the Mobile VCE Vision Group would like to establish linkages – please make contactestablish linkages – please make contact

Use our Research Results - If you work for one of Use our Research Results - If you work for one of our member companies you are our member companies you are already entitled toalready entitled to accessaccess our detailed research reports, results & tools our detailed research reports, results & tools

If you work for a company interested in joining the If you work for a company interested in joining the Virtual Centre of Excellence, please see Virtual Centre of Excellence, please see

Myself (today)Myself (today) Nigel Jefferies of VodafoneNigel Jefferies of Vodafone www.www.mobilevcemobilevce.com.com Or e-mail Or e-mail walterwalter..tuttlebeetuttlebee@@mobilevcemobilevce.com.com


Documents

Mobile Research: Personal Perspectives on Vision & an Industry Context