Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000

Raimundo DuarteManager for Regulatory and Industry Affairs

Nokia do BrasilMultimedia in 221st Century - Porto Seguro, April, 6th - 2001

[email protected]

Mobile MultimediaEvolution from 2G to IMT-

2000

mailto:[email protected]






2 © NOKIA Multimedia in the 21st Century, Porto Seguro 04.06.01/RD

Agenda

•Nokia's vision of the Mobile Information Society

•Present Situation for 2G and 3G•Mobile Services, perspectives•GSM Phenomena in LA•World Technological Division•Evolution Path to IMT-2000•Nokia Solution •Summary


Nokia Vision:The Mobile Information Society

Any TimeAny Location

Any NetworkAny Device

Any ServiceAny Application


•Current Networks are 2nd Generation – 90% Digital

•Evolution of 2nd Generation – Same bands

•IMT-2000 already specified

•Licenses for 3G granted ~75 to date

Present Scenario


•GSM 800 - 900 – 1800 - 1900

•CDMA 800 - 1700 - 1900

•TDMA 800 - 1900

•AMPS 800

Standands x Frequency in 2G


•WCDMA 1900/2100

•CDMA2000 1900/2100

•Number of Licenses•73 WCDMA•2 CDMA2000

Standands x Frequency in 3G

New Frequency Bands for 3G were allocated in WRC-2000

How to use >> Under Big Discussion in ITU


SMS

E-SMS

m-commerce

m-banking

Entertainment

Current Services

Increase the ARPU – today up to 9%


Mobile data and SMS info on selected operators in Europe

Operator, Country % revs SMS/sub/ Charge SMSfrom data month chat (Euro cents)

Sonera, Finland 9 23 16NetCom, Norway 9 25 1.2Telenor, Norway n/a 30 14TeleDanmark/Denmark 3 40 7OPI, Italy 4.5 18 10TIM, Italy 3 10 12*D1, Germany 6.3 32 8*BT Cellnet, UK n/a 15 18.6Vodafone, UK 6 25 11Orange, UK n/a 33 6.4-16Itineris, France <1* n/a 14*Bouygues, France <1 5 10.6Telefonica, Spain 4 13 15Telecel, Portugal 1 4 10Panafon, Greece 4.6 30 9Libertel, Netherlands 2 n/a 23*Eircell, Ireland <2 30 14

Note: *data as of JanuarySource: company data/Merill Lynch estimates, June 2000

Total Europe, Total Europe, Merill Lynch estimatesMerill Lynch estimates• % Operator revenues% Operator revenues from data: from data:

• 2000: 4%2000: 4%• 2005: 26%2005: 26%• 2010: 50%2010: 50%

• % Operator revenues % Operator revenues from non-access: from non-access:

• 2000: 2%2000: 2%• 2005: 16%2005: 16%• 2010: 33%2010: 33%


The Philippines Phenomena

Mobile Subscriber Explosion:

220 % growth in 12 months

96% of the new users chose GSM

True Winner :

1 700 000 new users in 12 months

Every subscriber sends 27 text messages every day at cost of 2 US cents per message

50 million messages / day

Daily revenue : 1 M USDDaily revenue : 1 M USD

COMMUNICATIONS, INC.


•3G will not happen overnight, but in gradual evolutionary steps

•3G is a combination of a wide range of enabling technologies

•For consumers 3G is not discontinuity, but an evolution of handset functionality

3G is an Evolution not a Revolution

3G is one more step of Mobile Internet!


Today's applications will evolve to 3G

Usability of 3G applications require higher bit rates

Thursday Partly cloudy. Temperature 4..8 CFriday Rain

3G is driven by services, not technology


The Perspective of Mobile Data


Data Over GSM by Technology, Western Europe

1999-2004

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f u

se

rs

UMTS (K)

EDGE (K)

GPRS (K)

HSCSD (K)

CS (K)

SMS (K)

Source: Dataquest (April 2000 estimates)


Mobile Services Revenue in Western Europe — Voice versus Data, 1998-

2004

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000$

Mill

ion

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Data Revenue Voice Revenue

Source: Dataquest (April 2000 estimates)


SMS Forecast, Worldwide(no. of messages sent)

SMS in 2000 (average)

Continental Europe12 billion

Asia5 billion

Eastern Europe1 billion

South America1 billion

North America0.5 billion

Middle East0.25 billion

• Totally 20 billion SMS per month

• GSM Association estimates 10 billion

SMS on GSM by Dec. 2000

Source: Mobile Lifestreams, June 2000

SMS Forecast 2000-2005 (monthly)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Bil

lio

n


Why this will happen?


Metcalfe’s Law

More manufactures and R&D produce greater range, drives capability up and unit price down

Large range, capability and low price attract more usersMore users create large markets

Large markets attract more manufactures and R&D

Positive Feedback


GSM countries in 1998:ChileChileFrench French CaribbeanCaribbeanParaguayParaguayVenezuelaVenezuela

GSM Phenomena in Latin America

GSM countries after 2000:Antigua & Antigua & BarbudaBarbudaArgentinaArgentinaBoliviaBoliviaBrazilBrazilChileChileEl SalvadorEl SalvadorFrench French CaribbeanCaribbeanGuatemalaGuatemalaJamaicaJamaicaMexicoMexicoParaguayParaguayPeruPeru SurinameTrinidad & TobagoVenezuelaVenezuela

ColombiaUruguayUruguayEcuadorEcuadorGuyanaGuyana

GSMGSM

Maybe Maybe GSMGSM

TDMA/TDMA/CDMACDMA


Economies of scale

TDMA/GSMCDMA

Infravendors 3/+10~7

Infra market ~4B/~17B~$6B

Subscribers 62M/450M80M

Terminal vendors 5/40 20~60% of world market

+200 M units in 2000Various sources: Nokia, EMC, Ovum

0BUSD

5BUSD

10BUSD

15BUSD

20BUSD

25BUSD

1H99 2H99 1H00 2H00

CDMA

TDMA

GSM

~35% of CDMAsubscribers are in Korea (1/2001)

Source : Global Mobile


First to the market

• Usually new features come first to GSM - vendors spend most and first of their efforts on the largest market

• SMS (chat, picture messaging, ring tones, logos / icons)• Circuit switched data (9.6 kbps -> 14.4 kbps -> HSCSD x times

14.4 kbps)• WAP• Packet data (GPRS and EGPRS)• Location Based Services (E-OTD, Cell ID & TA, GPS)• Accessories (Handspring visor GSM module, telematics, etc.)• SIM card

• Security• M-commerce• SIM ATK• Control over handset configuration with Class 2 SMS• Distribution

• SyncML, MMS, Java, EPOC terminals


Strong Standardization

• Well defined standards in GSM and WCDMA

• GSM standard is strict, with rigorous Type Approval -> all carriers can utilize the standard terminal

• Other technologies with loose standards present possibility for endless carrier variations increasing the cost for handsets

• Easy to have multiple infrastructure vendors for GSM

• GSM offers worldwide roaming• Value added services available when you roam (SMS, CSD,

WAP, etc.)


Analogue & Digital Technologies

GSM64%

CDMA12%

TDMA9%

PDC5%

Analogue10%

Source: EMC 01/2001

Subscribers worlwide

GSM 455 687 350CDMA 84 620 510TDMA 66 602 540PDC 38 543 700Analogue 68 489 870

Total 713 943 970


GSM71%

CDMA13%

TDMA10%

PDC6%

Digital Cellular Technologies

Source: EMC 01/2001

Subscribers worlwide

GSM 455 687 350CDMA 84 620 510TDMA 66 602 540PDC 38 543 700Total 645 454 100


World Cellular Subscriber Division end 2000

Source: EMC 12/00

GSM900/180021%

GSM19002%

TDMA800/19004%

TDMA19000%

TDMA8004%

Analogue10%

PDC7%

CDMA800/19003%

CDMA19002%

CDMA17002%

CDMA8005%

GSM90031%

GSM18009%


1999 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1H2001 2H20011999 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1H2001 2H2001

WCDMA becoming the dominant 3G

standard

Liechtenstein

SpainUK

JapanNetherlands

GermanyItalyAustria

NorwaySwitzerland

SwedenPortugal

Finland

France

5 x WCDMA

6 x WCDMA

2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000

1 x WCDMA

4 x WCDMA

4 x WCDMA

5 x WCDMA

5 x WCDMA

4 x WCDMA

4 x WCDMA4 x WCDMA

6 x WCDMA

S. Korea

5 x WCDMA

2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000 [??]

DenmarkGreece

Ireland

Hong KongTaiwan

Czech

Belgium3 x WCDMA

73 WCDMA licences awarded plus more to come… (120 by end 2001)Vs13 CDMA2000 networks planned (out of which 2 already opted for WCDMA)

AustraliaNew Zealand

Singapore

4 x WCDMA

4 x WCDMA

5 x WCDMA


2 Mbits/s

170 kbits/s

76.8 kbits/s

14.4 kbits/s

43.2 kbits/s

10 Mbits/s

Evolution of Mobile Radio Standards

Estimated Product Availabiliy

EDGE

TDMA (IS-41)

CDPD

384 kbits/s

115.2 kbits/s

GPRSGSM (MAP)HSCSD

PDC/PDC-P

cdmaOne(IS-41)

WCDMA FDD

WCDMAHSDPA

307.2 kbits/s

cdma2000-1X

Standardin

preparation

Standardcompleted

200220012000 2003

WCDMA TDD

200kHz

5MHz

1.25MHz

30kHz

2.4 Mbits/s

2 Mbits/s

Wid

e a

rea c

overa

ge

TD-SCDMA

4,8 Mbits/s

1XEV - DV

1XEV - DO


Nokia UltraSite: solutions that garanty tomorrow operators

today's investement

• Nokia UltraSite Base Station: One unit for all technologies!

• How does it work?• First 'triple-mode BTS' in the world for GSM, EDGE,

UMTS• Data speeds of up to 107,4 kbit/s with GRPS• Data speed of more than 400 kbit/s with EDGE• Data speeds of up to 2Mbit/s with UMTS carriers• Operates on all relevant frequencies

• What are the benefits?• Mobile Multimedia Coverage and GSM Coverage• Enables GPRS, ECSD, EGPRS data services• One platform for all of GSM, EDGE, and UMTS• Secures the operators network investement•

GSM or EDGE

part

WCDMA part


Summary

• TDMA and GSM are converging with a smooth evolution path to 3G

• GSM is the dominate 2G protocol• WCDMA and EDGE will be the dominate 3G protocol• Global economies of scale and global roaming• Better and more cost effective terminal, infra and

application portfolio

• GSM800/1800/1900 enables 3G evolution to TDMA operators

• Common core network for GSM/GPRS -> EDGE/WCDMA

• Triple mode Nokia Ultrasite base station• Multimode and multiband terminalsTerminals will allow roaming Worldwide

(GSM + WCDMA)


Thanks!Muito Obrigado!

Documents

Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000