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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
2 The Last 10 years | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
Greetings, The global mobile industry has made phenomenal strides in the past 15 years yet best is still to come. The mobile ecosystem has become much more dynamic, lightening fast paced, and breathtakingly unpredictable. The evolution of mobile services is impacted by several key forces of change. These include technology innovation and diffusion, consumer behavior, globalization, and easing of the regulations to promote trade and commerce. This is leading to the emergence of new players and new ecosystem dynamics, as well as the creation of open architectures. In 1991, Mark Weiser, in his seminal article, “The Computer of the Twenty First Century,” described computing as “a world in which humans and computers were seamlessly united.” The article opened with “The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.” If we look forward to the next 10 years of evolution in the mobile industry, two things are certain. First, over this decade, mobile will become so ingrained and embedded in our daily lives that, as Weiser suggested, it will be indistinguishable from the mundane. Second, the very definition of a mobile device and mobility will undergo a drastic transformation over the next decade. Instead of just mobile phones having cellular radios and connectivity, there will be hundreds and thousands of different devices, each a unique appliance, which will have wireless connectivity to the network. There will be sensors in the buildings we live in, the clothes we wear, the roadways we commute on, and the vehicles we drive in. Almost everything of substance will have connectivity. With the evolution in networking technologies, middleware architectures, and mobile devices, we are entering a new era of always-on, real-time access mobile experiences. We are putting together an exciting Executive Summit - Mobile Future Forward to bring together thought leaders who are some of the most influential minds in the mobile industry and are shaping the ecosystem evolution. These experts and visionaries from around the globe will discuss the mobile industry 5 years forward, envision what the user experience and the use case scenarios look like, discuss and debate the challenges and opportunities in the journey to that vision. This paper describes various themes for the conference through a series of pictures that try to capture the essence, the complexity, the opportunity, and the debate within each of the micro trends. At the Mobile Future Forward conference, these will be the topic areas of our conversation with some of the best minds in the industry. We would love to hear your feedback on what matters to you the most and your suggestions on how we can make the program better. We look forward to seeing you at the event. Thanks Chetan Sharma Chief Curator - Mobile Future Forward
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
3 The Last 10 years | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
The Last 10 years
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Global Mobile Industry: The Last Decade
Data Revenue Revenue Subscriptions
imode > 30M subsChina > 100M subsFirst camera/bluetooth
phone from JPhone/Sharp
India crosses USas #2 market
Mobile becomesa Trillion$ industryVodafone re-entersIndian market
US crosses JP indata revenuesAndroid launchNokia ships 100M
units/qtr
2B Appstore dwldChina > 700M subsIndia > 500M subs
Data revenues > $200BJapan > 90% 3GTeliaSonera LTE launchGlobal DARPU > 20%
DoCoMo DARPU ~ 50%5 operators > $10B in data revenuesNortel bankruptcy
Huawei wins LTEcontracts in Europe68% global penetration
Japan > 50% 3GUS >200M subsWestern Europe
> 100% penetration100M 3G subs2B GSM subsChina Mobile
becomes the mostvalued operatorDoCoMo > $10B indata revenues
Telefonica-O2 mergerNokia 6300
Japan 3G launchRIM BlackberryChina > 200M subs
SE T68i (MMS support)Mobile > Fixed
iPhone, OviChina > 400M subsIndia > 100M subs
Vodafone leavesJapanDoCoMo > $10Bin data revenues
Nokia N95GLobal Subs > 3BiPhone launch
UK > 100% penetrationSE W800i (walkman)
imode launchesFirst CommercialMVNO by Virgin UK
Bluetooth devices
imode > 5M subsJP DARPU > $10FI, DE, JP DARPU > 10%US > 100M subs12% global penetration
Windows Mobile
Razr
©Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
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US Mobile Industry: The Last Decade
Data Revenue Revenue Subscriptions
iPhone launches,the world changesUS > 250M
Everyone chantsOpen MantraSpectacular riseand fall of MVNOs
3G ~ 25%CinBell's first UMA launch, StormKindle
700 MHz Spectrum AuctionAppstore wreaks
havocTMO /Android VZ buys Alltelbecomes #1
ATT buys Wayport> Trillion TXTsTMO @Home
3G networks startlaunchingSmartphone % rises
$1M Mobile Adcampaign startsVerizon Data Rev> $1B/qtr
MS OrigamiCingular buys ATTbecomes #1Sprint buys Nextel
Data ARPU > $5Netadds peakat 7MRazr storms the
handset worldUS Service Rev/
qtr > $100B
ATT/DoCoMo JVVZ #1 OperatorData Rev < $0.5B
iPhone 3GSPre, DroidGoogle buys
AdmobCisco buys StarentData traffic > 1 EBFirst $10B quarter
Facebook > 100M subs on mobileDARPU > 30%Industry weathers
recessionGoogle Phone
Voicestream acquired by DTbecomes TMO US
Mobilestar bankruptcyacquired by VoicestreamMetricom bankruptcyiPod
Windows Mobile
American IdolDARPU < 1%TMO launches
Hotspot businessRIM Blackberry
©Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Global Handset Marketshare Over the Last Decade
Nokia Samsung LG SonyEricsson
Motorola Blackberry Apple iPhone Others
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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
4 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
The Next 10 years: Trends that matter 1. Mobile ecosystem is getting complex
1 2. Network evolution: more capacity, more bandwidth, tremendous usage
1 Source: Adapted from T-Mobile USA
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
5 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
3. New sources of revenue: mobile advertising, commerce, and services
4. Evolution of content, media, entertainment, and commerce
2
2 Source: Microsoft Home, Perceptive Pixel, Intel
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
6 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
5. Evolution of communication
Voice Voice
Text
Voice
Text
IM
Voice
Text/MMS
IM
VoIP
Voice
Text/MMS
IM
VoIP
Video
< 1992 1993 1999 2002 2010
Data
Reven
ues
Voice Revenues
Carrier is typically only a
transport provider
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20
10
2015
Voice/VoIP
Email/IM
RCS
Text/MMS/Video
Facebook/Twitter
?
?
?
?
?
6. Always on Real-Time Access - mobile cloud computing & instant access to anything
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
7 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
7. Internet of things: mobile device as a remote of our lives
3G/4G
WPAN
5/6G
WLAN
Intertech Handoff
Intercarrier Handoff
Pervasive
Security and Privacy
Social Networking
Shared Experiences
Simultaneous video,
audio, talk, IM, internet
access
Frequency and network
agnostic
OFFICE NETWORK
HOME NETWORK
IN-VEHICLE NETWORK
OUTDOOR NETWORK
Field Service
Automation
Mobile Payments
mHealth
Remittances
News and Alerts
Firewall
Mobile Enterprise
mAgricultureEducation
Productivity Apps
Telematics
mGovernance
Emergency Response
Real-Time Information
Access
Context and Ambient
Awareness
Teleworking
Life’s New Remote Control
Mobile Commerce
EntertainmentSuperdistribution and
Communication
Semantic Web
MESH
Smarter and Flexible
DevicesSelf-forming, Self-
healing, Best Available
Security Tracking and Navigation
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8. The world is flat - globalization and competition
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
8 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
9. Mobile as a platform - let a thousand industries bloom
China Mobile Vodafone ATT TelefonicaNTT DoCoMo
Messaging, Browsing
Video, MusicSecurity,
AuthenticationAdvertising
Personalization, Identity
Payments, BankingLocation, Presence,
AwarenessPerformance, Policy
ManagementBillingCRM, Email
mHealth mEducationEnterprise
ApplicationsmGovernancePublic Safety
Entertainment
EV-DO WiMAX Cable FTTHWCDMA/LTE
Doctor Counseling
Health Monitoring
Appointment Reminder
Pay the Doctor
Live Class Transmission
Real-Time Collaboration
Peer Networking
Virtual Field Trips
Field Force Automation
Sales Force Automation
M2M
Video Conferencing
Complaint Filing
Accessing Govt Programs
Registering to Vote
Homeland Security
Social Networking
Celebrity Alert
Live TV
Music Download Service
Integrated Mservices Platform
Disaster Alert
Evacuation Guidance
Relief Notification
Social Organization
OPERATOR
ACCESS
NETWORK
CAPABILITY
APPLICATION
MODULES
© Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
10. New Experiences - display, interaction and commerce
3
3 Source: Fjord, Microvision
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
9 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
11. Reallocation of revenues - winners and losers are decided in reallocation
12. Battle for the analytical mind - data, context and intelligence drives everything
Knowledge
(about User)
Transactions
(from User)
Demographics/Explicit
Profile
Interests/Implicit Profile
Sensor data
User Intent
Location
Presence
Physiological parameters
Calendar
Address Book
Social Community
Intellectual Community
M2M
Preferences
Devices in the vicinity
3rd
Party Sources
Browsing, Watching,
Previewing, Flipping
Purchasing, Payments
Communications
Search (Local, Online,
Media)
User Experience
Gifting
Advertising
Pricing
Security/Authorization
DRIVES
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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
10 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
13. Shifts in ecosystem - the ups and downs, and shifts of revenue sand dunes
14. Nurturing ecosystems - aggregating the developers and partners
OEMSOperators
Content & IP
Admob
RIM
Motorola
LG
Microsoft
Verizon ATT
Sprint
T-Mobile
Orange
China Mobile
Acquisitions
Tool Providers
Flurry
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
Millennial Media
SUNPaypal
Microsoft
LOWEST HIGHEST
# of APPS % of PROFITS
HIGHER LOWER
HIGHESTLOWEST or
NEGLIGIBLE
Glu Mobile
Digital Choclate
Amazon
Direct TVReal
The Weather
Channel
TiVO Facebook
NY Times
©Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
11 The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
15. Managing the network - what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
12 Partial List of Thought Leaders attending the Summit | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
Partial List of Thought Leaders attending the Summit
Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T
Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble
Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo
Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP & GM, Intel
Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype
Hank Skorny, SVP, Media Mobile Cloud Computing, Real Networks
Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN,
Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media
Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow & Director, User Experience, Intel
Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson
Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc
Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Global Health & Discovery, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association
Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive
Takayuki Hoshuyama, COO D2 Communications
Neville Ray, SVP, T-Mobile
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
Russ McGuire, VP, Sprint Nextel
Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks
Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD Sept 8, 2010
13 About Mobile Future Forward Conference | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved. www.mobilefutureforward.com
About Mobile Future Forward Conference Mobile Future Forward is produced by Chetan Sharma Consulting.
About Chetan Sharma Consulting Chetan Sharma Consulting is one of the leading management consulting and strategic advisory firm in the mobile industry. We are focused on evolving trends, emerging challenges and opportunities, new business models and technology advances that will take our mobile communications industry to the next level. Our expertise is in developing innovation-driven product and IP strategy. Our clients range from small startups with disruptive ideas to multinational conglomerates looking for an edge. We assist major brands formulate winning, profitable, and sustainable strategies. Please visit us at www.chetansharma.com