MobiCom Presentation Athens, 26 February 2001 Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services: The MobiCom Project Dr. Nikos Mylonopoulos, MobiCom

MobiCom Presentation

Athens, 26 February 2001

Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce

Services:The MobiCom Project

Dr. Nikos Mylonopoulos, MobiCom Scientific CoordinatorMs. Ioanna Constantiou, MobiCom Project Manager

eLTRUN - The e-Business Research Center


M-Commerce Market Drivers

• Mass Adoption• Booming Wireline Internet• Supplier Push• New Billing Principles• UMTS Licensing


Mobile Communications Attributes

Ubiquity

Reachability

Convenience

Localisation

Instant Connectivity

Personalisation

Today

Tomorrow

Security


M-Commerce Obstacles

• Multitude of network technologies• Complex Standardization Processes• Infrastructure investments

(replacements)• Demand uncertainty• Slower than anticipated WAP

adoption


M-Commerce Becomes Reality


NTT DoCoMo’s iModeThe Portal Benchmark

• 19.4 million subscribers as of 18 February 2001• 480+ content providers with specific apps.

• Banks, credit cards,insurance, tickets, news, travel, CDs, books,

• games, entertainment• 10000+ providers with HTML content

• Automatic translation into Compact HTML• Messaging is key to achieve lock-in• Revenues: 50% use premium services for $1-3,

commission 9%, iMode monthly subscription, cellular subscription, airtime, more voice, games & banner ads


NTT DoCoMo’s iModeThe Portal Benchmark


• Project started 1 December 2000

• Total duration:20 months• Participating 9 partners:

(4 universities, 3 mobile telcos, 2 eCommerce companies)

MobiComMobiComEvolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce

Services


ConsortiumConsortium

Athens University of Economics and BusinessAthens University of Economics and BusinessProject Coordinator – Expertise in new business models

The University of CologneThe University of CologneExpertise in e-commerce

University of JyvUniversity of JyväskylääskyläExpertise in technology convergence

University of BrightonUniversity of BrightonExpertise in mobile telecommunications and scenario planning methodology


Services


ConsortiumConsortium (Continued)(Continued)

STET Hellas Telecommunications SASTET Hellas Telecommunications SAMobile Telecommunications Operator

Sonera CorporationSonera CorporationMobile Telecommunications Operator

Mannesmann Pilotentwicklungsgesellschaft mbHMannesmann Pilotentwicklungsgesellschaft mbHMobile Telecommunications Operator

Lambrakis Research FoundationLambrakis Research FoundationInfo-broker, internet portal – e-commerce applications and dissemination activities,

Verband der Vereine Creditreform e.V., NeussVerband der Vereine Creditreform e.V., NeussBusiness Information and receivables management – e-commerce applications


Services


MobiCom partners:MobiCom partners:• Recognize that Mobile Commerce will play a significant

role in the European Information Society.• Argue that the value of Mobile Commerce for the

economy and for the people will depend on:• Characteristics of the technology and the standards

adopted• The structure of the technology and services markets• The role of technology providers, mobile operators

and service merchants• The needs of consumers and the nature of demand

• Agree that now (that the mobile markets are being shaped) is the time to plan ahead examining future scenarios and seeking consensus among the key players.

Impetus for Research on Mobile Commerce


OutcomesOutcomes• Current trends and developments in mobile

telecommunications and electronic commerce

• Analysis of new mobile services and mobile business architectures

• Scenarios for business models, market dynamics, social implications

• Feasibility studies and business plans

• Analysis of Mobile Commerce diffusion and adoption

• MobiForum


Services


Analysis of Mobile Telecommunications

Industry

Phase 1

Sectoral analysis of Ecommerce services

Phase 2

Analysis of the convergence between Mobile Telecoms and Ecommerce: New Services and

Applications

Phase 3

Mobile Commerce Evolution Scenarios

Policy and Regulation

New market dynamics New methods of work

New business models

MobiForum – Interactive PlatformAt a glance


Services


Beneficiaries and Beneficiaries and BenefitsBenefits Mobile OperatorsMobile Operators

A learning experience generating insight into alternative strategic directions for Mobile Commerce. Tangible feasibility studies and business plans. E-Commerce MerchantsE-Commerce Merchants

Understanding the breadth of possibilities for new value added services. Market readiness information. Feasibility studies and business plans. The European CommissionThe European Commission

Scenarios of new market development and dynamics. Assessment of socioeconomic impacts. Policy recommendations.

University partnersUniversity partners

Strengthening and widening existing expertise in e-commerce and e-business. Sharing and transferring methodological and research knowledge.


Services


They believed it… (Schoemaker, 1995)

– Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

• I think there is a world market for about five computers

– Ken Olson, President, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

• There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home


Scenario Planning Methodology

• Key approach throughout the project

• Avoids forecasting in a complex environment– Driving ahead by looking at the rear view

mirror

• Explores alternative futures– Manage the present from the future


Special Interest Groups

• Objective– To open participation to scenario planning to

a broad range of stakeholders

• Expectations – To contribute the the debate

• Benefits– To have your voice heard to the European

Commission

• Means– Local meetings, European Worshops,

MobiForum


Special Interest Groups

Join the MobiCom SIG if:• You are mobile operator• You are mobile infrastructure developer or

provider• You offer mobile services to your customers• You develop third party mobile applications and

services• You are involved in the standardization and

policy processes

Documents

MobiCom Presentation Athens, 26 February 2001 Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services: The MobiCom Project Dr. Nikos Mylonopoulos, MobiCom