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8/6/2019 MNP 2008 - Local and Global Consequences of the EU Renewable Directive_tcm24-277510
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page 2 of 36 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
MNP 2008
Parts of this publication may be reproduced, on condition of acknowledgement: 'Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the title of the
publication and year of publication.'
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Rapport in het kort
Local and global consequences of the EU renewable directive for biofuels: testing the
sustainability criteria
[pm]
Trefwoorden / Keywords:
Biofuels, Greenhouse gases, Biodiversity, Food security, Energy, EU-directive
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Contents
Summary............................................................................................................................. 6
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 9
2 Discussion on sustainability criteria........................................................................ 12
3 Proposal by the European Commission .................................................................. 15
4 Greenhouse gas savings ........................................................................................... 18
4.1 Methodology in the proposal............................................................................. 18
4.2 GHG savings per production chain........................... ......................................... 19
4.3 The impact of fertilizer use ............................................................................... 22
5 Biodiversity .............................................................................................................. 24
5.1 Macro-impact of European proposal ................................................................. 24
5.2 Land-use allocation........................................................................................... 26
5.3 Conclusions for biodiversity.............................................................................. 26
6 Food security ............................................................................................................ 27
6.1 What is food security?....................................................................................... 27
6.2 Results .............................................................................................................. 28
6.3 Conclusions on food security ............................................................................ 29
7 Synthesis................................................................................................................... 31
7.1 Does the criterion of 35% reduction of GHG-emissions guarantee ofpositive effect on climate change and biodiversity?........................................... 31
7.2 Are second generation biofuels really better than first generation? .................... 32
7.3 Are biofuels for transport the optimal application for the availablebiomass?........................................................................................................... 33
8 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 35
References.......................................................................................................................... 36
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Summary
The European Union has set as target an obligatory share of energy from renewable sources
in transport in 2020 of at least 10% of final consumption of energy in transport in each
Member State. This target for the transport sector is expected to be met by biofuels only,
although other routes like connection of the transport sector to the electricity grid are also
thinkable. In the proposal for the Directive (released the 23rd of January 2008) the European
Commission pays much attention to sustainability criteria for biofuels and bioliquids, as a
consequence of the heated debate in the scientific community and society whether biofuels
can be called sustainable.
In this report the sustainability criteria as formulated by the European Commission in Article
15 of the proposal are analysed. Since the sustainability criteria need to be met by suppliers
of biofuels, the Commission focuses on criteria that can be applied on a batch level.
Therefore, only criteria for greenhouse gas savings and concerns of biodiversity are
addressed. Other environmental concerns and issues like food security are only addressed in
reporting obligations starting in 2011.
We conclude that the current sustainability criteria are not effective in addressing macro-
developments that occur because of the push for biofuels. For example, the displacement of
food and feed production cannot be assessed by the current criteria. The choice to address
these issues ex-post is debatable, since some impacts can lead to irreversible loss of
biodiversity or a substantial loss in food security.
Moreover, the existing criteria are not addressing the link between greenhouse gas savings
and loss of biodiversity. To prevent loss of biodiversity, a push to more intensive crop
production is very likely, but this push cannot occur without additional use of fertilizer in the
entire agricultural system. Use of fertilizer will lead to additional N2O emissions (a
greenhouse gas). Therefore, the optimal greenhouse gas saving of biofuels is not the same as
optimal land use for biodiversity concerns. This trade-off between greenhouse gas savings
and biodiversity is not addressed in the proposal by the European Commission.
In the proposal by the European Commission there is a clear incentive for second generation
biofuels (double counting of 2nd generation is allowed). However, in our analysis it is not
obvious that second generation biofuels yield better results than first generation biofuels,
since the entire production chain needs to be considered. First generation biofuels also yield
by-products that can be used as feed for animals, which is an advantage that is not possible
for second generation biofuels. When the end-use of all by-products of first and second
generation biofuels is considered, the outstanding results of second generation biofuels
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becomes much more uncertain. This adds another uncertainty in the discussion whether
biofuels in transport can be considered a sustainable option.
Therefore, we conclude that the macro-developments that are caused by this 10%-target
(additional demand for land of 16 million ha, additional pressure on the food market, leading
to higher food prices, displacement risks in different regions outside the EU since the
ecosystems, trade-offs between greenhouse gas savings and biodiversity impacts), justify a
rethinking of whether a strict target in 2020 for the transport sector is needed. Other routes
for the transport sector (for example via electricity) need to be stimulated as well, since the
most efficient use of biomass for energy is not through conversion to biofuels (a ton of wood
reduces 471 kg CO2 when converted to Fischer-Tropsch diesel and 1121 kg CO2 when used
as input for electricity). Strict targets for transport in 2020 will lead to production of biofuels
and will cause the development of new markets which are not necessarily needed in the
longer term. Another option is to develop a conditional 10% target. Especially, macro-
impacts like deforestation, use of water resources and impacts on food prices justify such
conditionality. The registration of these impacts needs to be part of a monitoring system that
is necessary before obligatory targets are considered.
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1 Introduction
On the 23rd of January (2008) the European Commission released its climate and energy
policy package, including European targets for greenhouse gas reductions and shares of
renewables for all EU member states in 2020 (EC, 2008). This package by the Commission
contains proposals for Directives following initiatives by the European leaders in March
2007. In March 2007 the European Council agreed to put an ambitious climate and energy
policy package forward, including targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction, energy
savings and share of renewables in the total energy consumption (EU, 2007). This policy
package is supposed to bring the European Union a leader position in the worlds fight
against climate change.
First reactions in 2007 were very enthusiastic from all sides: the European Chemical Industry
Council (Cefic) claimed to support an energy policy striving for further emission reductions
through energy savings, additional increases in energy efficiency, increased use of renewable
energy and better international cooperation, the European Bioethanol Fuel Association
(eBio) stated that the EU policies bring great news for the EU bioethanol industry and
WWF (formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund) proclaimed European initiatives sets
the right path to control climate change at the global level.1 Only Friends of the Earth were
less positive in their reaction, since they proclaimed the targets are too little (for greenhouse
gas emission reductions) or too vague (for share of renewables): Agreeing such a vague
target on the share of renewables instead of sector-specific targets, is leaving in limbo how to
generate enough confidence for investors to spur massive commercial uptake of renewable
energies in all sectors, including electricity and heating and cooling. The EU must now
develop clever strategies to guarantee that this target does not flop.2
However, in the course of 2007 the debate on renewables changed drastically, mainly
following raised objections against the use of biofuels3. Most striking in the debate on
biofuels was OECDs publication Biofuels: Is the curse worse than the disease?4 The two
fundamental questions that were raised in the report were:
1. Do the technical means exist to produce biofuels in ways that enable the world to
meet demand for transportation energy in more secure and less harmful ways, on a
meaningful scale and without compromising the ability to feed a growing population?
1 Reactions taken from EurActiv: http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/eu-energy-summit-new-start-europe/article-162432
2http://www.foeeurope.org/press/2007/March9_JK_council_conclusions.htm
3 The term biofuel is used when bioenergy for the transport sector is meant. Bioenergy to produce electricity and heat is called
bioenergy.
4 OECD claimed this report was not representing an official view of the OECD, but nevertheless the outreach of this report certainly
benefited from OECDs trademark.
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2. Do current national and international policies that promote the production of biofuels
represent the most cost-effective means of using biomass and the best way forward
for the transport sector? (Doornbosch and Steenblik, 2007)
The report concluded that food shortages and damage to biodiversity are a possible
consequence of a rush to energy crops, without clear benefits, since the claimed greenhouse
gas reduction effects can be very small. Therefore, different Member States came with
several reports in which sustainable criteria were introduced. Also the European Parliament
joined this discussion during the approval of the new Fuel Quality Directive by amendments
in December 2007 (EP, 2007; see Section 2).
This increased attention to biofuels in the course of 2007, was also reflected in more critical
positions from NGOs like WWF and Friends of the Earth5. In November 2007, WWF
published its position paper on biofuels in which it was stated that WWF will only support
bioenergy that is environmentally, socially and economically sustainable and considers that
effective measures are needed to address issues like food security, protection of permanent
grasslands, natural and semi-natural forests and other high conservation value areas, a fair
level playing field for small producers and a positive greenhouse gas balance over fossil
fuels (WWF, 2007).
These releases in 2007 resulted in first drafts of the European Commission where several
sustainability criteria were introduced for biofuels in the transport sector. However, just
before the publication of the European Commissions proposal a group of environmentalNGOs (non-governmental organisations) demanded to introduce much tougher standards for
biofuel production or give up mandatory transport biofuel targets altogether (De Clerck et al.,
2008). This position of NGOs completed a year of turmoil regarding biofuels in the transport
sector.
In this report our focus is on the biofuels in the transport sector, where most of the
discussions were aimed at. The sustainability criteria as formulated in the proposal for a
Directive (Section 3) are put central. In combination with the different aspects of production
of biofuels, the following questions are addressed in the Sections to follow:
1. To what extent are the criteria as formulated by the European Commission
sufficient to assure the desired outcome of what was the initial reason for
proposing the criterion?
5http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/european_renewable_revolut_07122007.html
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2. What type of biomass production chain can meet the proposed criteria easier and
what are the geographical consequences of the criteria (domestic production
versus import from different regions)?
3. What kind of considerations can be added to improve the outcome of using
renewables in the transport sector?
Our analysis encompasses a first reaction to the proposed sustainable criteria and addresses a
number of sustainability aspects, ranging from greenhouse gas savings and biodiversity
concerns to other environmental aspects and food security. These aspects play at a local level
in the production chain but also at a national and even global level. Therefore, our
conclusions are indicative and are meant to broaden the discussion on renewables in the
transport sector. The conclusions on biofuels in the transport sector are not necessarily
applicable for other uses of bioenergy in the electricity and heating and cooling sectors.
In Section 2 the general discussion on sustainability criteria is described in short. The details
of the proposal of the European Commission is given in Section 3. Thereafter, three sections
are addressing the following sustainability concerns: greenhouse gas savings, biodiversity,
and food security respectively. The synthesis is given in Section 7 and we conclude with
conclusions in Section 8.
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2 Discussion on sustainability criteria
The discussion on biofuels for the transport sector, summarised in Section 1, also lead to
different proposals on which sustainability criteria should be considered before biofuels can
be seen as good alternatives for fossil fuels. Especially, United Kingdom (UK) and the
Netherlands were the first two countries with clear sustainable criteria, covering areas of the
greenhouse gas balance, biodiversity, land-use change, welfare, well-being and competition
for food and other materials.
In the UK, the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (LowCVP) came with the following criteria of
importance for the production of biofuel crops (LowCVP, 2006):
o Conservation of carbon stocks
Protection of above-ground carbon
Protection of soil carbon
o Conservation of biodiversity
Conservation of important ecosystems & species
Basic good biodiversity practices
o Sustainable use of water resources
Efficient water use in water critical areas
Avoidance of diffuse water pollution
o Maintenance of soil fertility
Protection of soil structure and avoidance of erosion
Maintain nutrient status
Good fertiliser practice
o Good agricultural practice
Use of inputs complies with relevant legislation
Use of inputs justified by documented problem
Safe handling of materials
o Waste management
Waste management complies with relevant legislation
Safe storage and segregation of waste
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In 2007, in the Netherlands, the Cramer Committee6 came with a comparable list of
sustainability indicators (Cramer et al., 2007):
o Greenhouse gas balance: measured over the complete production chain a greenhouse
reduction of 30% compared to use of fossil fuels must be met in the transport sector;
o Competition with food and other local applications: production of biomass may not
endanger the food production and other applications (for medicines etc.)
o Biodiversity: biomass production may not affect protected or vulnerable biodiversity;
o Environment: quality of soil, air and water must be sustained;
o Welfare: production of biomass must contribute to local welfare;
o Well-being: production of biomass must contribute to the well-being of employees and
local population.
In its judgement of the Fuel Quality Directive (EC, 2007) the European Parliament also
implemented sustainability criteria for biofuels to ensure no perverse incentives are
introduced by the Fuel Quality Directive. Most important is the demand by the European
Parliament that biofuels should show a greenhouse gas reduction of at least 50% compared
to fossil fuels in order to offset the negative effects of growing fuel crops, such as negative
environmental effects, increased competition for land, water and food, and increased pressure
on natural forests and local communities (EP, 2007).
Clearly, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) savings that is required is one of the most
important discussion issues on the table. However, the methodology applied is heavily
determining the amount of reduction that can be achieved by using biofuels instead of fossil
fuels. Therefore, a clear methodology on the counting of greenhouse gas savings is essential
before production chains can be assessed. This issue will be discussed in Section 4.
In its amendments to the Fuel Qualitative Directive the European Parliament also introduced
further criteria that need to be met before subsidies may be given to specific production
chains. These criteria demand that international conventions and regulations are complied
with, in particular relevant ILO standards and UN conventions for the protection of
indigenous people, no significant effect on water resources occur due to biofuels
production, air, water and soil quality is not adversely affected by extraction of fuel
feedstock production and no deforestation or net loss of other carbon stocks above or below
ground occurs due to fuel feedstock production (EP, 2007).
6 The Committee was led by Jacqueline Cramer who became Minister of Environment in February 2007.
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The areas that are covered by these criteria are very much related. The discussion seems to
focus on how the greenhouse gas saving should be accounted and how criteria on the other
fields can be implemented at a production level. For specific biodiversity concerns, clear
criteria at a production level can be set, but displacement effects at a national or global level
are difficult to steer by criteria. In Section 6, this issue will be addressed.
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3 Proposal by the European Commission
The official title of the proposal concerned is Proposal for a Directive of the European
Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
(EC, 2008). The broader intention of the Directive is to set a binding target to increase the
level of renewable energy in the EU energy mix to 20% by 2020. The European Commission
acknowledges that an integrated approach to climate and energy policy is needed given that
energy production and use are primary sources for greenhouse gas emissions. However, not
only climate change is a reason to stimulate renewables in the EU. As the European
Commission states the European Union's increasing dependence on energy imports threatens
its security of supply and implies higher prices. In contrast, boosting investment in energy
efficiency, renewable energy and new technologies has wide-reaching benefits and
contributes to the EU's strategy for growth and jobs. In this broader setting the targets for
renewables within the EU27 should be considered.
In this report we only focus on renewables in the transport sector, since environmental
sustainability criteria are only applicable to the renewables in this sector (and bioliquids in
the other sectors). For renewables in the electricity sector and for heating and cooling no
sustainability criteria are set (with the exception of bioliquids). In Article 5(9) it is stated:
Electricity produced from renewable energy sources in third countries shall only be taken
into account for the purposes of measuring compliance with the requirements of this
Directive concerning national targets if:
(a) it is consumed in the Community;
(b) the electricity is produced by an installation that became operational after the date of entry
into force of this Directive; and
(c) the electricity is issued with a guarantee of origin that forms part of a system of guarantee
of origin equivalent to that laid down by this Directive.
The target for renewables in the transport sector is set in Article 3(3): Each Member State
shall ensure that its share of energy from renewable sources in transport in 2020 is at least
10% of final consumption of energy in transport in that Member State. In Article 5(1) it is
mentioned that: Biofuels and other bioliquids that do not fulfil the environmental
sustainability criteria in Article 15 shall not be taken into account. Interesting enough, it is
also stated that Gas, electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy sources shall only be
considered once in either the electricity sector, use for heating and cooling or the transport
sector for calculating the share of final consumption of energy from renewable sources. In
other words, other routes than liquid biofuels are possible for the transport sector, but are not
stimulated in any way in the rest of the proposal.
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In Article 15, the environmental sustainability criteria are given. Article 15(2) indicates the
greenhouse gas saving from the use of biofuels and other biolquids taken into account for the
purposes referred to shall be at least 35%. This saving is applied to the mix of renewables,
not for each raw material.
In contrary, the biodiversity criteria are applicable for the raw materials produced. In Article
15(3) it is stated that biofuels and other bioliquids taken into account for the purposes
referred to shall not be made from raw material obtained from with recognised high
biodiversity value, that is to say land that had one of the following statuses in or after January
2008, whether or not the land still has this status:
(a) forest undisturbed by significant human activity, that is to say, forest where there
has been no known significant human intervention or where the last significant human
intervention was sufficiently long ago to have allowed the natural species composition and
processes to have become re-established;
(b) areas designated for nature protection purposes, unless evidence is provided that
the production of that raw material did not interfere with those purposes.
(c) highly biodiverse grassland, that is to say grassland that is species-rich, not
fertilised and not degraded.
And Artcile 15(4) adds that Biofuels and other bioliquids taken into account for the purposes
referred to shall not be made from raw material obtained from land with high carbon stock,
that is to say land that had one of the following statuses in January 2008 and no longer has
this status:
(a) wetlands, that is to say land that is covered with or saturated by water permanently
or for a significant part of the year, including pristine peatland;
(b) continuously forested areas, that is to say land spanning more than 1 hectare with
trees higher than 5 metres and a canopy cover of more than 30%, or trees able to reach these
thresholds in situ.
Other criteria, such as mentioned in the Cramer criteria are not set in this stage. Even more
important, Member States shall not refuse to take into account biofuel and other bioliquidsobtained in compliance with this Article, on other grounds of sustainability.
Other impacts of biofuels in the transport sector should be considered in reporting obligations
(Article 19): Member States shall submit a report to the Commission on progress in the
promotion and use of energy from renewable sources by 30 June 2011 at the latest, and every
2 years thereafter. In the report Member States should report commodity price and land use
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changes within the Member State associated with its increased use of biomass and other
forms of energy from renewable sources, the development and share of biofuels made from
wastes, residues, grasses, straw and ligno-cellulosic material and the estimated impact of
biofuel production on biodiversity, water resources, water quality and soil quality.
To stimulate innovation, the Commission states in Article 18(4) that tor the purposes of
demonstrating compliance with national renewable energy obligations placed on operators,
the contribution made by biofuels produced from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic
material, and ligno-cellulosic material shall be considered to be twice that made by other
biofuels. This intention plus the high greenhouse gas reduction percentages that are assumed
in Annex VII B and E give a clear incentive for second generation biofuels. The question
remains whether these new biofuels are available before 2020 and whether there supposed
environmental gains can really be met.
These intentions are the basis for our further analysis. In Section 4, the greenhouse saving
counting procedure as proposed by the Commission is followed. Since the greenhouse saving
percentage needs to be met by a blending of biofuels, fuel suppliers can mix different biofuel
production chains. However, here we assumed that all biofuel blendings come from one
source of raw material. With this assumption we can show which production chains have a
higher probability of not meeting the greenhouse gas saving target. In each chain we show the
importance of the largest uncertainties that still exist in the counting procedure. And at a
macro-level we indicate to what extent there is a probability that greenhouse gas emission
increase can be seen although the sustainability criterion is met.
In the other Sections we work with the total amount of biofuels that is needed to meet the
10% transport target in 2020 to visualize the level of ambition that is put forward by the
European Commission. Next, the biodiversity criteria from the European proposal are
followed and the European and global land-use consequences are indicated. Main question
will be to what extent the current criteria are suitable to prevent further loss of biodiversity,
which is supposed to be reduced significantly, as agreed upon by the EU in the context of the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 2002).
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4 Greenhouse gas savings
One of the most important advantages of biofuels over fossil fuels is their assumed lower
emissions of GHG-emissions in the production chain. In the proposal the European
Commission states that the greenhouse gas saving from the use of biofuels shall be at least
35%. To calculate the greenhouse gas saving by biofuels, several aspects of the production
process needs to be considered. The following elements might have a significant impact on
the results:
o Productivity of the crop cultivation and the related input of nutrients leading to N2O-
emissions.
o Emission factors of processes in the production chain, especially N2O-emissions in
the chemical industry for fertilizer production
o The use of biomass for process energy in the production chain; examples are biodiesel
for agricultural activities, bio-electricity and bioheat for biomass industrial processingo Allocation of the emissions based on energy values of the different products resulting
from the same processes in the production chain; of course the market position of the
different products will not remain the same in time
o Extension of the system studied to include all products resulting from the production
chain and their potential to substitute other products (like animal feed, straw for
electricity and fossil glycerine)
o Soil emissions because of the change of land-use
In this Section the proposal by the European Commission is compared to these aspects using
data by Hamelinck (2007).
4.1 Methodology in the proposal
Article 17 encompasses the methodology that the European Commission is proposing to
calculate the GHG saving by biofuels compared to fossil fuel. In the proposal, different
options are possible: or default values as given by the Commission will be taken or a detailed
calculation methodology is followed. Clearly, a preferred option for many Member States
will be to use default values, to minimize work load. However, these default values are only
allowed to be used when the raw materials are cultivated outside the Community or within
the Community in regions that are assigned beforehand by the Member States (this needs to
be done before 31 March 2010). Obviously, this is an incentive for Member States to assign
as many areas as possible, although these areas need to have lower emissions for cultivation
than assigned by the Commission in Appendix VII-D.
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In the detailed methodology that is given in Appendix VII-C the Commission is proposing a
fairly detailed methodology where most of the aspects of a well-to-wheel analysis are
considered. The following emissions need to be included in the calculations: emissions from
the extraction or cultivation of raw materials, annualised emissions from carbon stock
changes caused by land use change, emissions from processing, emissions from transport and
distribution and emissions from the fuel in use. In the case of by-products from first
generation biofuels, the accounting will have to be done on the basis of the energy content.
This allocation method of by-products is relatively simple to calculate.
In summary, the proposed methodology by the European Commission is very extensive and,
theoretically, accounts for most of the steps that need to be considered in a well-to-wheel
analysis. An important aspect of the proposed methodology is the consideration of soil
emissions because of land-use change. Also here the Commission proposes default values
that are very high. For example, if permanent grass (not highly biodiverse, since this category
is excluded in Article 15(3) (see Section 3) is converted to arable land for biofuels, the
emissions become: (181-82)*(44/12)*(1/20) = 18 tons CO2/ha. This value is difficult to
overcome by advantages of biofuels. Therefore, the methodology is a clear incentive to use
existing arable land and not permanent grassland or lightly forested areas.
The only disadvantage of the proposed methodology is that displacement of food and feed
crops is not considered. However, this issue is difficult to address anyhow (see Sections 5 and
6).
4.2 GHG savings per production chain
The default values as chosen in the proposal are documented in Annex 7 of the Commision
staff working document, which is an annex to the Impact Assessment of the European
Commission. In this Annex 7 the reasoning for the methodology is given and the choice to
come to default values is explained. From this explanation it becomes clear that the typical
values in Appendix VII-A and B are based on energy allocation of by-products (as proposed
in the methodology). To build in a safety valve, most of the default values are set to lower
GHG savings than the calculated value, including accounting of by-products by energy
allocation. Again, this shows the European Commission cautiousness with respect to use of
biofuels.
In our own analysis of several production chains, we get to saving rates as given in Figure 1.
The chains considered are summed in Table 1. Different values are given per production
chain. bb refers to the use of bioenergy in the production chain. In the production chain
energy is needed for transport and processing. In most cases the input is fossil energy, but
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also biomass can be used as a resource. With respect to allocation the following three steps
are considered: no allocation of by-products, allocation of by-products based on the energy
value of the products (conform proposal) and by substitution (by-products can substitute
fossil products, for example straw can be used for the production of electricity instead of coal
and animal feed can be a substitute for soy meal, with corrections for the soy oil).
Table 1: Production chains considered in this analysis
Crop Biofuel
Rapeseed Biodiesel
Palm oil Biodiesel
Wheat Bioethanol
Sugar beet Bioethanol
Sugarcane Bioethanol
Wood Fischer-Tropsch diesel
Wood Bioethanol
GHG-emission reduction of biofuels
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
BD rapeseed
BD palm oil
E wheat
E sugar beet
E sugar cane
FTD wood
E wood
Reduction related to fossil fuel
bb allocation
bb no allocation
substitution
allocation
no allocation
Figure 1: GHG savings according to own calculations for different aspects (on the basis of
Hamelinck, 2007)
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From Figure 1 it is clear that how allocation of by-products is calculated is a crucial step for
savings that can be achieved. Moreover, it shows that the proposed default savings by the
European Commission are on the low side for first generation biofuels(for example, sugar
beet ethanol according EC is 35% GHG savings, sugar cane ethanol 74%, rape seed biodiesel
36% and palm oil biodiesel 51%). In contrast, the values for the second generation biofuels
are on the high end (93% for farmed wood Fischer-Tropsch diesel and 70% for farmed wood
ethanol). Again, this result shows the push for second generation biofuels by the European
Commission.
The same conclusions are valid when the values in Appendix VII-D/E are compared to own
calculations (Figure 2-4). Please note that it is assumed for second generation biofuels that
processing emissions are zero since only biomass is used.
GHG-emissi on rapesee d biofuel
0
20
40
60
80
No a llo cat io n Ene rg y b as ed
allocation
EU-proposal
typical
Eu-proposal
default
Transport
Processing
Cultivation
Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions for rape seed biodiesel as reported by the European
Commission (EC, 2008) and as determined by own calculations on the basis of Hamelinck(2007).
GHG-emission palm oil biofuel
0
20
40
60
80
No
allocation
Energy based
allocation
EU-proposal
typical
Eu-proposal
default
gCO2eq/MJ
Transport
Processing
Cultivation
Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emissions for palm oil biodiesel as reported by the European
Commission (EC, 2008) and as determined by own calculations on the basis of Hamelinck
(2007).
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GHG-emission farmed wood FT-diesel
0
20
40
60
80
No
allocation
Energy based
allocation
EU-proposal
typical
Eu-proposal
default
gCO2eq
/MJ
Transport
Processing
Cultivation
Figure 4: Greenhouse gas emissions for farmed wood Fischer-Tropsch diesel as reported by
the European Commission (EC, 2008) and as determined by own calculations on the basis of
Hamelinck (2007).
4.3 The impact of fertilizer use
So far, the conclusion is that the EC proposes a detailed methodology, but that most of the
Member States will work with the default values, since these values are easy to use and these
values are chosen with care and the methodology can easily lead to lower GHG savings when
soil emissions are considered. However, the issue of fertilizer use is hardly mentioned so far.
In the proposed methodology (Appedix VII-C) fertilizer use should be considered. However,
this methodology is hardly addressing the issue that fuel production per hectare and farmers
income increase with higher fertilizer dose. Therefore, a target for biofuels will automaticallyintroduce an incentive for more fertilizer use. However, fertilizer use will lead to additional
N2O emissions, decreasing the GHG savings. Figure 5 shows this trade-off for rape seed
biodiesel: the GHG savings are declining when high N application rates are applied. When
only default values are used from the proposal and farmers will use a lot of fertilizer to
optimize their income, the actual GHG savings become very uncertain. This aspect is not
considered sufficiently in the current proposal and shows the complexity of the problem that
is introduced by the target of 10%.
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GHG-balances rapeseed biodiesel
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
N-dose i n culti vation (tonne s/ha)
reductionGHG-emissions
without allocation
energy based allocat ion
soy substitution (no soil
emission)
bb energy based allocation
bb soy substitution (no soil
emission)
Figure 5: GHG savings for different N application rates, for different allocation rules of bio-products.
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5 Biodiversity
5.1 Macro-impact of European proposal
As described in Section 3, the European proposal excludes several ecosystems from possible
cultivation for the use of biofuels. However, again, displacement of production of food and
feed cannot be excluded. Therefore, a substantial demand for additional land for biofuels will
lead to an incentive to use productive land for biofuels and to shift other cultivations to other
areas. This impact can be crucial given the high target of biofuels. Moreover, the EU is not
the only region with high bioenergy targets. In this analysis the US-target is also considered.
The latest EU proposal on biofuels (10% in 2020) en U.S. plans on biofuels (35 billion
gallons of bioethanol in 2017) require substantial amounts of land for the cultivation ofenergy crops. In the EU the main energy crops cultivated are oil crops (rapeseed, sunflower),
wheat, maize and sugar beet. In the US the main crop used for energy is corn (maize) and is
used for the production of bioethanol.
For the estimation of future crop production and future land demand the OECD-FAO outlook
2006-2016 is used as basic source on future developments in agriculture. For the most
relevant food/feed and fuel crops the required data on production and land demand were
taken form this outlook and extrapolated up to 2020. The data also reflect presumed yearly
yield increase, which is assumed to occur as result of improved management and better cropvarieties. The growth in production demands are based on the development in 2016 and the
yearly yield increase are based on the development in the last 5 years.
In the OECD-FAO report only the most important biofuel producing regions are addressed
separately. These are the EU27, U.S., Canada, Brazil and China. In our calculations we used
the OECD-FAO biofuel figures for all these regions. In the OECD-FAO outlook the
development of biofuels is modest compared to the ambitions of EU policy and US policy.
The ambition in the U.S. is a production of 35 billion gallons of bio-ethanol in 2017. The
target for 2020 is assumed to be equal to the target in 2017.
Four scenarios are considered:
The first scenario (A) is based on the data presented by OECD-FAO. The only
modification is the extrapolation up to 2020.
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The second scenario (B) is based on the first one. The only modification is a doubling of
the growth in yield per hectare. This has substantial impact on the required area (but has a
trade off to N2O emissions (see Section 4.3).
The third scenario (C) is based on the data presented by OECD-FAO. The period is
extended to 2020 by extrapolation and the policy targets of the EU (10% biofuels) and ofU.S. (35 billion gallons bioethanol). The consequences of policies are an additional
increase in demand for biofuels and subsequent impact on the area for the production.
The fourth scenario (D) is based on the third one. The only modification is a doubling of
the growth in yield per hectare. This has substantial impact on the required area.
Area results are shown for EU and US in Table 2. Since less feed crops are needed (by-
products of biofuels can be given to livestock) the total additional area needed for the
European target is around 16 million ha. This is comparable to 10% of the current European
agricultural area.
Table 2: Areas needed in Europe and the USA for meeting the biofuel targets in the region
itself.
EUROPE27- area (wheat, oilseeds, maize)
Scen A OECD-FAO 3.635 kha 7.396 kha 11.867 kha
Scen C target 2020 3.635 kha 7.396 kha 18.888 kha
Scen D target 2020+yield improvement 3.635 kha 7.264 kha 15.853 kha
US7- area ( maize)
Scen A OECD-FAO 5.749 10.222 10.353
Scen C target 2020 5.749 10.222 29.990
Scen D target 2020+yield improvement 5.749 10.090 26.361
This area is very large and not likely to become available in Europe before 2020. Therefore,
the EU-directive can be seen as an incentive to produce biofuels outside Europe, which is
difficult to manage. Moreover, alternatives for bioethanol and biodiesel can be produced
more efficiently in other regions. For example, when 50% of the required bioethanol is
produced by in Brazil with sugar cane, the area needed is only 2 million ha. This shows that
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for reasons of productivity, production outside Europe is recommendable. This trade-off of
productivity and location of production is not addressed in the proposal.
5.2
Land-use allocationPm; what areas are available globally for producing biofuels given the criteria in the
proposal? Allocation of different maps is used to show global availability of ecosystems
according EU proposal. Example of maps:
Figure 6: Maps of potential for woody bio-energy production in 2050, land degradation (map
from the GLASOD database), protected areas (Sustainability First scenario GEOIV) and the
water stress index (WaterGap results for 2050) as used in the analysis.
5.3 Conclusions for biodiversity
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6 Food security
6.1 What is food security?
There are four dimensions to food security: availability, access, stability and utilization.
Further development of bioenergy sectors will affect food security in numerous ways. The
effects of bioenergy on food security will be context-specific, depending on the particular
technology and country characteristics involved. For instance, liquid biofuels derived from
food crops will have different food security implications than modern bioenergy systems
based on lignocellulosic or waste materials. FAO has initiated working groups for assessing
food security implications of bioenergy. The questions that need to be addressed by those
working groups are:
1. What are the expected impacts on food prices at all levels on food insecure
households?
2. What are the implications for food availability in terms of competition for natural
resources, such as land or water, or human resources, such as labour? What about
inputs to agriculture, particularly for households dependent on own food
production?
3. What are the implications on incomes, employment and land rents given current
inequities in access to productive resources? Is there anything different about
bioenergy that could mitigate or overcome factors of exclusion that contribute in
part to food insecurity and rural poverty?
4. What are the implications of bioenergy on environmental sustainability and
climate change as they affect food security?
5. Who (public sector, private sector, civil society) is best placed to monitor and
address possible conflicts arising from the competition between food, feed or fuel
use of biomass?
6. How can low-income food deficit countries ensure that food security concerns are
addressed, given the possibility of unintended consequences due to rapid
development of bioenergy and the complex linkages between agriculture, energy,
environment and trade?
Here identification of the most vulnerable countries:
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Source: Schmidhuber, 2006
6.2 Results
Results from Eururalis study (WUR/MNP, 2008) in which 10% target is implemented in a
liberalised scenario.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Crude oil
Reference BFD
Figure 7: Percent changes in real world prices, 2020 relative to 2001 (Banse et al., 2008)7
7 Numbers in % indicate the share of imported biofuel crops in total use of biofuel crops in petrol sector
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0
4000
8000
12000
16000
Initial, 2001 Reference, 2020 BFD, 2020 Reference, high
oil price, 2020
BFD, high oil
price, 2020
domestic imported
Figure 8: Origin of biofuel crops used in the EU-27 (in Mill US$, 2001; Banse et al., 2008).
6.3 Conclusions on food security
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access
to sufficient amounts of sage and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy live (Nyberg and Raney, 2007). At present about 800
million people suffer from malnutrition. The aim of Millennium Development Goal is to
reduce this number by 50% by 2015.
The central question is whether a criterion to prevent deterioration of food security can be
implemented on micro-scale (individual consignments), or whether this question can only be
addressed at regional, national or global level.
Only in more extreme cases this criterion can be implemented on the level of individual
consignments, for instance when the biofuel-feedstock is coming from a region with high
incidence of malnutrition. However, the fact that an individual consignment is produced in a
food abundant region, does not mean that there is no impact on food security for people in
other regions. Several studies (Banse et al., 2008; Elobeid & Hart, 2008) have shown theeffects of biofuel policies on world market prices (see also Section 6.2). In low income, food
deficit regions higher world market prices lead to a significant impact on purchase power.
Elobeid and Hart demonstrate that the impact of the US policy on bio-fuels lead to cost
increases of food baskets up to 15% in certain SSA countries.
If the criterion can only be implemented on a macro-level, several questions arise, like:
30% 42% 53% 44% 52%
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1. How can the criterion actually be implemented?
2. Who is responsible for monitoring?
3. How is the feedback on the results of the indicator organised?
4. Should the criterion be used ex-ante or ex-post?
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7 Synthesis
7.1 Does the criterion of 35% reduction of GHG-emissions
guarantee of positive effect on climate change andbiodiversity?
A clear reduction is positive for climate change and excludes cases, for which it is doubtful if
there would be a reduction. A reduction of GHG-emissions is beneficial for biodiversity as
well.
The list of default data in Annex VII of the proposal makes clear that none of the biofuels,
which are on the market nowadays or can be expected in future, will have problems with the
criterion mentioned. The most critical situations for fuel producers or suppliers can be solvedby either presenting more data on the actual situation, mixing biofuels (or biomass as the
resource) with different characteristics or using more bio-energy in the process chain.
Producers will only provide extra data, if they are better than the default value of one of the
three distinguished parts of the process chain. So, even if the actual overall values would not
be above 35%, a specific biofuel would comply.
In many process chains the extra use of biomass for process energy might improve the
results. Examples are biodiesel for tractors and transport and production of heat and
electricity by burning biomass. A potential reduction increase of about 20% for crops like
rapeseed and wheat is assessed based on exploring calculations. Although this seems a bit ofa trick, it should be realized the high reductions for biofuels based on wood or for sugar cane
ethanol can be explained by the use of biomass for process energy.
Because the 35% criterion is applied for mixtures adding some more waste as a resource or
mixing worse biofuels with better ones could be attractive. Small amounts of bad biofuel
are not prohibited to enter the market this way.
The conclusion must be that almost no biofuel is prevented from entering the market by the
criterion of 25%. Even a higher reduction criterion (i.e. 60%) would probably have a small
impact on the crops used for biofuels, but would lead to smart solutions in practice.
The results depend on the allocation method. The EC-proposal prescribes the energy basedallocation method for good reasons. The substitution method is more likely to simulate
practice, but will be quite complicated. For rapeseed and wheat the difference between
energy based allocation and the substitution method (with animal feed substituting soymeal)
is about 0-15%.
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A reduction of more than 35% suggests a positive effect on climate change in all cases.
However global land conversion partly driven by the demand for biofuels is not included. To
analyze the potential impact, a more relevant indicator is the GHG-emission reduction per
hectare. In this way an assessment can be made of the compensation for indirect soil
emissions. Using the values presented in the EC-proposal for the conversion of lightly
forested area or permanent grasslands into arable land an emission would lead to an emission
of almost 5000 kg CO2/ha.y.
Furthermore the impact on biodiversity is dominated by two effects: positive because of less
climate change and negative because of conversion of natural area (also indirect and
elsewhere, but related to the extra land-use for biofuels). Although scientific knowledge
doesnt lead to strict guidelines because of many uncertainties, it is likely biodiversity losses
in present ecosystems occur when GHG-reductions are lower than 20000 10000 kg CO2-
eq/ha.y.
Using the energy based allocation method (for emissions and land-use) for the most
important biofuels (including some future options) reductions (all > 35%) are in the order of
5000-15000 kg CO2-eq/ha.y. Extra soil emissions are compensated, but the positive effect is
reduced significantly. For biodiversity negative effects on present ecosystems cannot be
excluded for all biofuels.
The EC-proposal wants to stimulate the use of wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material
and ligno-cellulosic material. Optimal use of waste streams will have positive effects. No
extra land is used. In some cases in practice these streams have other applications. There is no
clear definition of whats waste. Therefore negative effects of using them for biofuels cannot
be excluded.
7.2 Are second generation biofuels really better than first
generation?
In cultivation de energy production per hectare of woody materials is higher.
New technologies enable the conversion of more waste materials into biofuels.
Woody materials can be cultivated on land, which is not suitable for food crops.
Woody material is no food crop and no rival for food production, biomass for the first
generation is.
To start with the last argument, it makes no sense. The real sustainability dilemma is not if
food crops are used for bio-energy or not. The real dilemma is if land is used for the
cultivation of food, feed or energy crops. In case land is not suitable for food production the
cultivation of woody biomass (or other like jatropha) for energy will reduce the pressure on
the food market.
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However, even the cultivation of these types of biomass requires at least reasonable
conditions to realize economically interesting productivities. Problems of availability of
water cannot be neglected. The biodiversity value of these types of land cannot be ignored
either. In general, it can be assumed that the lower the biodiversity of the land the lower the
potential productivity and the higher the extra needed inputs (water and fertilizer). There is
not enough knowledge and experience to conclude whats the strongest impact.
In agricultural practice in many cases it is no question of food or feed or energy. There can be
several products or co-products leaving the production chain with different purposes. This
will be optimized with the biorefinery concept. Two situations of widely used energy crops in
Europe, wheat and rapeseed, both producing biofuel and animal feed have been compared
with the production of the same amounts of biofuel (in MJ) and animal feed (based on
nutritional value and quality) from soybeans (cultivation in Latin-America with relatively low
productivity) and biofuel from European wood. The emissions per MJ for the soybean/wood
combination are lower but more land is needed. In case biomass is introduced in the process
chains for rapeseed and wheat and the N-dose is slightly adjusted to get to the same GHG-emissions per MJ for rapeseed the total land-use is 10-20% higher and for wheat about 30%
lower than for soy/wood.
Based on these results there is no clear answer to the question whats best.
7.3 Are biofuels for transport the optimal application for
the available biomass?
There are no alternatives for transport, at least not on the short term.
Energy security is dominated by oil.
The discussion is determined by two facts: 1. the availability of biomass is limited and 2. the
GHG emission reduction of biomass used for the generation of electricity is higher. Because
of this last point, the way the excess electricity is allocated in the EC-proposal deserves
support. The advantage of electricity generation is especially true for woody materials and
thus for second generation biofuels. For example, a ton of wood reduces 471 kg CO2 when it
is transferred to Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel, but it reduces 1121 kg of CO2 when it is applieddirectly in the electricity sector.
Of course, the advantage of biofuels is they can easily be introduced in the present system,
just blending fossil fuels with a certain percentage of biofuel. The costs for first generation
biofuels are no big problem, especially with the present high oil price. However its potential
to reduce GHG-emissions in 2020 is quite low. A reduction of less than 5% per kilometer can
be expected, far less than the increase of transport.
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Are there really no alternatives for transport? Yes, there are. Fuel cell cars on hydrogen,
hybrid and plug-in hybrid and even all electric cars are alternatives, although there costs are
still relatively high. In a transition process towards a new system their potential is high,
although it depends on the sustainability of the hydrogen production and the generation of
electricity. The EC-proposal includes these alternatives for transport as renewable if the
production is based on renewable energy. Electricity for transport will be taken from the grid,
which delivers mainly fossil based electricity. So, this application is not really stimulated this
way. It might be better to take the amount of renewable electricity as part of the extra
electricity produced compared to a reference year.
Are the hydrogen and electricity alternatives really more promising? This question can be
related to the question of an optimal use of biomass by comparing four situations all starting
with same amount of wood as the source of energy and ending with kilometres driven with an
average car. Electricity wins, hydrogen follows and FT-diesel and bio-ethanol stay behind.
The excess electricity produced is about as valuable for transport as the liquid biofuels. The
electricity pathway is not included in the 10% biofuel. Understandable because wood forelectricity entering the grid cannot be assigned to transport, but a pity because it still is a very
promising option for the long term, although dependent on technological improvement of
batteries. The electricity and hydrogen pathways can be supported by bio-energy, but they are
not depending on it.
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8 Conclusions
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References
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