1Presented on 8/10/2021

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1

MMACCOVID-19 Update08.10.2021

PRESENTED BY:John R. Raymond Sr., MD

2Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduCOVID-19 UPDATE 08.10.2021

John R. Raymond Sr., MDPresident and CEOMedical College of WisconsinPR

ESEN

TED

BY:

LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

Analytics by Ali NematiMCW Institute for Health and Equity

Ben Weston, MD, MPHAssociate Professor, Medical College of WisconsinDirector of Medical Services, Milwaukee County Office of Emergency Management

Mara Lord, MBASenior Vice President, University Engagement and Strategic PlanningMedical College of Wisconsin

3Presented on 8/10/2021

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W I S C O N S I N

1,087CONFIRMED NEW CASES WISCONSIN 7-DAY AVERAGE

TRENDING UNFAVORABLY

COVID-19 CASES AND INDICATORS – 08.10.2021

630,296TOTAL CASES IN WI

112,801TOTAL CASES IN

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

7,989PREVIOUS HIGHEST

DAILY POSITIVE CASES IN WISCONSIN11.18.2020

1,649PREVIOUS HIGHEST

DAILY POSITIVE CASES IN MILWAUKEE11.09.2020

LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

259%14-DAY INCREASE OF

CASESSECOND WORST STATE BEHIND

NEW HAMPSHIRE

7.4%POSITIVITY BY PERSONWISCONSIN 7-DAY TREND IS TRENDING UNFAVORABLY

149%14-DAY INCREASE OF HOSPITALIZATIONSFOURTH WORST STATE

BEHIND VT, SC, MS

1.2R

WISCONSIN

21stIN VACCINATIONS

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W I S C O N S I N

M I L W A U K E E

1DEATHS

WISCONSIN 7-DAY AVERAGE(1) TRENDING STABLE

COVID-19 DEATHS & HOSPITALIZATIONS – 08.10.2021

7,454TOTAL WI COVID-19

DEATHS AS OF 07.12.2021

2,277PEAK WI COVID-19 HOSPITAL CENSUS

11.17.2020

456PEAK WI ICU CENSUS

11.16.2020

104PREVIOUS HIGHEST

DAILY COVID-19 DEATHS WISCONSIN11.23.2020

LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

1DEATHS

MILWAUKEE 7-DAY AVERAGE

TRENDING STABLE

481HOSPITALIZATIONS

WISCONSINTRENDING UNFAVORABLY

245HOSPITALIZATIONS

HERC-7TRENDING UNFAVORABLY

160ICU CENSUS

WISCONSINTRENDING UNFAVORABLY

91ICU CENSUS

HERC-7TRENDING UNFAVORABLY

5Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduWISCONSIN COUNTIES’ COVID-19 DISEASE BURDENS

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-data.htm#day

LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

11.12.2020 – 11.25.2020 03.03.2021 – 03.16.2021 06.23.3021 – 07.06.2021 0721.3021 – 08.03.2021

WISCONSIN’S COVID-19 CASE BURDEN OVER LAST ELEVEN MONTHS

High : 71 CountiesVery High: Milwaukee

6Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEW COVID-19 VARIANT NOMENCLATURE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

New World Health Organization Nomenclature• Alpha: B1.1.7 UK variant spotted in September 2020.• Beta: B1.351 spotted in South Africa in May 2020.• Gamma: P.1 first spotted in Brazil in November 2020.• Delta: B1.617.2 spotted in India.• Epsilon*: B1.427/B1.429 California variants in March 2020.• Zeta: P.2 variant spotted in Brazil in April 2020.• Eta*: B1.525 found widely distributed in December 2020; UK, Nigeria.• Theta*: P.3 spotted in Philippines in January 2021.• Iota: B.1.526 spotted in USA/NY in November 2020.• Kappa*: B1.617.1 spotted in India.• Lambda: C.37 originally detected in Peru

CDC classifies variants by 3 levels

VARIANTS OF INTEREST

Specific markers predicted to impact biology

VARIANTS OF CONCERN

Evidence of increased transmission or virulence or escape from immunity

VARIANTS OF CONSEQUENCEClear evidence that

prevention or treatment measures are ineffectivehttps://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern

7Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduDELTA COVID-19 VARIANT OF CONCERN LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

DELTA VARIANT• Most transmissible strain thus far. Twice as infectious as alpha or

beta. Can be spread by asymptomatic individuals. • Can be spread by fully vaccinated individuals. Transmission reduced

by 50%, but still significant risk. Wear a mask around others.• 100-1,000x nasooropharyngeal viral loads than other strains.• R value much higher than other COVID-19 strains, between 4 and 8.• Primary symptoms are headache, sneezing, runny nose, and sore

throat – different from and more subtle than earlier variants.• Likelihood of hospitalization is increased. “Younger, sicker, quicker”.• Has partial escape from vaccine immunity. Must complete FULL

course of mRNA vaccines to achieve 90% protection.• > 90 % of US cases now.

CDC classifies variants by 3 levels

VARIANTS OF INTEREST

Specific markers predicted to impact biology

VARIANTS OF CONCERN

Evidence of increased transmission or virulence or escape from immunity

VARIANTS OF CONSEQUENCEClear evidence that

prevention or treatment measures are ineffective

8Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEWLY DOCUMENTED OUTDOOR SPREAD LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

Recent Outdoor Delta Outbreaks

Outdoors

Tightly packed crowds

Shouting, singing

Prolonged exposure

No masks

Unvaccinated individuals

Top left. Lollapalooza Chicago 2021. “Where’s Waldo?” photo by Colin Hinkle/Soaring Badger Productions.

Top right. Pendleton, OR 2021 Whisky Music Fest. From Instagram.

Bottom left. Brooklyn, MI 2021 Faster Horses Festival. From Yahoo Life.

9Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEWLY DOCUMENTED OUTDOOR SPREAD LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

Recent Outdoor Delta Outbreaks

Outdoors

Tightly packed crowds

Shouting

Prolonged exposure

No masks

Unvaccinated individualsBucks celebration Jeffrey Phelps. Associated Press. Bucks celebration. From Daily Mail.

10Presented on 8/10/2021

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Bucks celebration – unattributed source.

11Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduWhy Get Vaccinated? LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

If vaccinated individuals still can get COVID-19 and spread it to others, why bother getting the shot?• COVID-19 vaccines reduce severe disease and hospitalizations by >

90%.• COVID-19 vaccines prevent COVID-19 related deaths by > 99%.• COVID-19 vaccines reduce transmission by 50%.Why do vaccinated people need to wear masks and practice other mitigation measures?• Masks protect those around us.• Because vaccinated individuals have mild COVID-19 symptoms and

because they can spread COVID-19 to vulnerable individuals, other mitigation measures add important extra layers of protection for those around us.

COVID-19 vaccines

Are safe and highly effective

Dramatically reduce hospitalizations and

deaths

Reduce symptomatic disease

BUT, delta still can be spread to others

because of high viral loads in nose, mouth

and throat

12Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduLOOKING TO THE FUTURE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

Biggest Threats• Lack of vaccine confidence.• Relaxed personal and community vigilance (masks, distancing, avoid

crowds) • Continuing emergence of newer COVID-19 variants.• Pandemic will not be over until world has been vaccinated. Promising Developments• FDA approval of mRNA vaccine/s expected within weeks.• Booster shots or vaccines to address variants will be easier to

develop than original vaccine.• Promising oral protease inhibitors are in phase 2/3 clinical trials and

could be used for prophylaxis or for mild cases of COVID-19.

13Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS

One-Fourth of Unvaccinated Adults Say They Will Get Vaccinated by End of 2021

Higher Risk from COVID-19

Total Adults Unvaccinated

3%

Don’t Know

Majority of Unvaccinated Adults Believe Getting the Vaccine is a Higher Risk than Getting COVID-19

Wait and SeeAdults

Definitely NotAdults

Higher Risk from Vaccine

Don’t Know

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard

14Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS

Among unvaccinated adults who acknowledge spread of variants in the U.S., more than 35% are taking protective actions

*Vaccination intent only asked of individuals who were unvaccinated at time of survey

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard

15Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS

For unvaccinated adults, the top motivator to get vaccinated is full approval from FDA

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard

16Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – PARENTS

Less than 50% of parents already have vaccinated or will vaccinate child or children between the ages of 12 - 17

Child already vaccinatedRight away Wait and see

Only if Required Definitely not

Nearly 70% of parents are hesitant to vaccinate their child or children under age 12

Will vaccinate right away Wait and SeeOnly if

Required Definitely not

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard

17Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – EMPLOYEES

Among employed individuals, employers rank among the most trusted in providing reliable information about COVID-19 vaccines

*Among parents of children under 18

**Among insured individuals

***Among employed individuals and not self-employed

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard

18Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE EFFORTS IN MILWAUKEE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com

Trained Community Mobilizers Paired with Vaccinators

Door to Door by Census Tract

Peer to Peer Texting

Social Media Geofencing

Teen Squad

19Presented on 8/10/2021

Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduDATA SOURCES

WE USE MULTIPLE EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES FOR THESE PRESENTATIONS• Wisconsin Hospital Association: wha.org/COVID-19Update• Wisconsin Department of Health Services: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/index.htm• Milwaukee County: https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/COVID-19• https://covidtracking.com/• New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html• and https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html• Wisconsin Electronic Disease Surveillance System (secure access required)• Milwaukee County Unified Emergency Operations Center (secure access required)• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/health-equity/race-ethnicity.html• Worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/• Johns Hopkins: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines• Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/

MEDICAL COLLEGE OF WISCONSIN ANALYTICS• Institute for Health and Equity• Division of Epidemiology • Epidemiology Data Resource Center and Geographic Information System

DATA SOURCES LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com