Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency

Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service

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COE/NWS/USGSCOE/NWS/USGS

Tri-Agency MeetingTri-Agency Meeting

Mississippi River BasinMississippi River Basin

AHPS UPDATEAHPS UPDATE

Craig Hunter Craig Hunter Hydrologist-In-Charge Hydrologist-In-Charge

NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast CenterNOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center

November 14-15, 2006November 14-15, 2006


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OutlineOutline

• Status of AHPS Implementation

• Existing Products

• New Products

• Developmental Work/Products


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AHPS Implementation StatusAHPS Implementation Status

• OHRFC fully converted to SAC-SMA model

• OHRFC generating 90-day probability of exceedance outlooks for entire basin

• OHRFC has been re-calibrating selected river segments including the Scioto River basin

• OHRFC adding several new forecast points on tributaries


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Climate Forecasts

Ensemble Streamflow PredictionEnsemble Streamflow Prediction

Weather Forecasts

HistoricalMAT and MAP

AdjustmentSystem

Adjusted HistoricalMAP and MAT


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AHPS 90-DAY OUTLOOKAHPS 90-DAY OUTLOOK


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AHPS 90-DAY OUTLOOKSAHPS 90-DAY OUTLOOKS


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New ProductsNew Products

Water Resources OutlookWater Resources Outlook

• Experimental Water Resources Outlook at OHRFC

• Based on SAC-SMA model

• Based on OHRFC/HPC/CPC QPF

• Based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

• Parterning with other RFCs to expand this product

http://weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml


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• Partner with USGS/COE

• Utilize USGS streamflow percentiles

• Verify product based on USGS flows

• Experimental period for 1-year to verify and show utility


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• Will also base it on individual USGS points that are NWS forecast points

• 159 of 276 OHRFC points will have these 30, 60 and 90 day expected streamflows

• Up to 20 more USGS points to be used as the complete data-set for these locations becomes available in the future.


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Developmental Work/ProductsDevelopmental Work/Products

ESP Non-Exceedance OutlooksESP Non-Exceedance Outlooks


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Non-Exceedance OutlooksNon-Exceedance Outlooks


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ESP with Post-Adj TechniqueESP with Post-Adj Technique

• Pre-Adjustment technique currently uses climate prediction center outlooks to adjustment the historical time-series for ALL years

• Post-Adjustment technique would weight years based on climate regimes such as El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.

• Run ESP with pre- and post- adjustments

• Research on the post-adjustment is being done by OHRFC and Michigan Tech submitted for a project with AHPS funding on this


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Short-term probabilistic forecastsShort-term probabilistic forecasts

• OHRFC is running the MM5 model currently to 60-hours on a U.S. scale and 36-hours on the Ohio Valley scale

• OHRFC will be moving to a Linux cluster and expand the run to 5-7 days

• Will use a statistical approach to generate short-term probabilistic forecasts

• Will verify results


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Mesoscale modeling at OHRFCMesoscale modeling at OHRFC

24-hr MM5 rainfall 24-hr observed rainfall

MM5 probabilistic project also leading to benefits for 24-hour QPF deterministic forecasts. It is being used as input into OHRFC 24-hr operational QPF currently.


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Real-time Flood Innudation Real-time Flood Innudation Mapping Using HEC-RASMapping Using HEC-RAS

• Used FLDWAV for operational testing last 4 years

• Need a GUI to visualize/adjust forecasts

• 2 staff members sent to HEC for HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS training

• Agreement in principal with USGS and USACE Ohio River District to develop community HEC-RAS for unsteady flows on Ohio River for:

Flood inundation mappingWater quality studiesOther operational needs


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PW

PE

RHImproving QPF with use of PEImproving QPF with use of PE

Improving QPF with use of PEImproving QPF with use of PE

PW Mean RH

Observed Rainfall

• PE = PW * Mean RH

• Looks at how efficient atmosphere is at raining out moisture

• More focused than many other current meteorological parameters on QPF placement

• Biggest challenges to QPF for hydrology: spatial placement of rainfall

• Improves over PW or RH alone


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PW

24-hr cumulative GFS PE

Improving QPF Forecasts 24-hr PE versus 24-hr cumulative GFS QPF. Oct 5,

2006 flood event.

Improving QPF Forecasts 24-hr PE versus 24-hr cumulative GFS QPF. Oct 5,

2006 flood event.

24-hr cumulative GFS QPF


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PW

24-hr cumulative GFS PE

PE Can Help Better Place Model QPF 24-hr cumulative PE provided better placement of QPF

maxima over GFS QPF placement.

PE Can Help Better Place Model QPF 24-hr cumulative PE provided better placement of QPF

maxima over GFS QPF placement.

24-hr observed rainfall


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SummarySummary

• Produce Probabilistic forecasts with the SAC-SMA model using ESP

• Existing products of the 90-Day Probability of exceedance forecasts can now be expanded to include products such as non-exceedance forecasts, Water Resources Outlooks and short-term probability forecasts.

• Other developmental works continues into short-term modeling and the use of HEC-RAS on the Ohio River.

• The goal of many of these products would better link multi-agency goals and further strengthen NWS/USGS/USACE partnerships.

Documents

Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency