Mississippi River Bridge An Analysis of Alternatives DRAFT Final Report Presentation January 31, 2007

Mississippi River Bridge

An Analysis of Alternatives


An Analysis of AlternativesDRAFT Final Report

PresentationJanuary 31, 2007

OverviewOverview

• Study Objectives

• Alternatives Considered

• Comparison of Alternatives

• Key Findings

• Choices for the Future

Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives

• Provide common understanding ―Existing and projected traffic

conditions―Bridge alternatives―Capital costs―Committed funding―Potential funding shortfalls

• Identify options for moving forward

Fact vs. FictionFact vs. Fiction

• Fiction: “…the cost of an 8-lane bridge – last year estimated at $910 million – is now $1.76 billion…partly due to inflation…”

• Fact: The cost of an 8-lane bridge – last year estimated at $910 million – is now $999.2 million…entirely due to inflation…”

•

Existing NetworkExisting Network

Existing Daily CrossingsExisting Daily Crossings

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Poplar Eads MLK

McKinley I-255 I-270

US 67 Downtown Total Overall Total

Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Average Daily Traffic History, Illinois Department of Transportation.

There is no question that additional

capacity is needed across the Mississippi River between Illinois

and Missouri in the East-West Gateway

region.

Bridge Alternatives: ComponentsBridge Alternatives: Components

• Proposed MRB (I-70)

• Proposed MLK “Coupler”

• Proposed I-64 Connector and “Tri-Level” Interchange

• Proposed IL-3 Relocation & Connector

“Build” Alternatives Considered“Build” Alternatives Considered

• New Mississippi River Bridge (MRB: I-70)―Current EIS/ROD pending―Capital cost (YOE): $999.2 million

• New Mississippi River Bridge with all connectors and ramps (MRB: I-70/I-64/IL-3)―Capital cost (YOE): $1,762.5 million

• New Mississippi River Bridge with principal connectors and ramps (MRB: I-70/I-64)―Capital cost (YOE): $1,561.5 million

• Proposed Martin Luther King Bridge “Coupler”―Capital cost (YOE): $545.9 million

Other Alternatives ConsideredOther Alternatives Considered

• Improvements to Existing Network (“TSM”)―Connectors, ramps, geometric

improvements―Capital cost: $450 million (+/-)

• “No Build”―Reference point or “datum”―Capital cost: $0

MRB: I-70MRB: I-70• Components:

I-70 Bridge

• Cost Estimate: $999.2M (YOE)

• Proposed Schedule: 2009-2014

• NEPA Status: ROD proposed 2007

• Potential Committed Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks:

$239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$210M

• Tolling Considered: Yes

MRB: I-70/ I-64 / IL-3MRB: I-70/ I-64 / IL-3• Components:

I-70 Bridge I-64 Connection IL-3 Relocation & Connection

• Cost Estimate:$1,762.5M (YOE)

• Proposed Schedule:2009-2014


• Potential Committed Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$226M


MRB: I-70 / I-64MRB: I-70 / I-64• Components:

I-70 Bridge I-64 Connection

• Cost Estimate: $1,561.5M (YOE)





$226M


MLK Coupler BridgeMLK Coupler Bridge• Components:

I-70 Bridge

• Cost Estimate: $545.9M (YOE)


• NEPA Status: Not Analyzed



$210M

• Tolling Considered: No

Comparison of AlternativesComparison of Alternatives

• Enhance network capacity

• Improve local, regional, and national movement of people and goods

• Reduce congestion and traffic delay

• Provide redundancy for periods during which one or more of the other bridges are partially or fully closed for repairs and rehabilitation

Forecasts and ProjectionsForecasts and Projections

• Utilized updated EWG modeling system

• Based on comprehensive household surveys done in 2002

• Validated “on the ground” with 2002 traffic

Travel Forecasting: Toll FacilitiesTravel Forecasting: Toll Facilities

• How many drivers will use a toll bridge, and how many will choose free alternatives?―Time saved through congestion

avoidance―Financial considerations (household

income, etc.)

• Diversion is based on travel time savings, toll amount, and availability of “free” alternatives

Projected Traffic:2020 Downtown Bridges Traffic Volume Comparison

Projected Traffic:2020 Downtown Bridges Traffic Volume Comparison

2020 Downtown Bridges Average Daily Traffic Volume

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

No Build MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLK Coupler MRB 70/64/3 -$1/$3

MRB 70/64 -$1/$3

MRB 70 -$1/$3

MRB 70/64/3 -$2/$4

Poplar St. New MRB MLK McKinley Eads

Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run

MRBMRB

PoplarPoplar

Projected Congestion Levels:2020 AM Westbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Projected Congestion Levels:2020 AM Westbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

No Build MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLKCoupler

MRB70/64/3-$1/$3

MRB 70/64-$1/$3

MRB 70-$1/$3

MRB70/64/3-$2/$4

Poplar New MRB MLK McKinley Eads


CO

NG

ES

TI

ON

MRBw/out tolls

MRBwith tolls

MLKCoupler

Projected Congestion Levels:2020 PM Eastbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Projected Congestion Levels:2020 PM Eastbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

No Build MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLKCoupler

MRB 70/64/3-$1/$3

MRB 70/64-$1/$3

MRB 70-$1/$3

MRB 70/64/3-$2/$4

Poplar New MRB MLK McKinley Eads


CO

NG

ES

TI

ON

MRBw/out tolls

MRBwith tolls

MLKCoupler

Local and Regional TravelLocal and Regional Travel

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLK Coupler MRB 70/64/3-$1/$3

MRB 70/64-$1/$3

MRB 70-$1/$3 MRB 70/64/3-$2/$4

IL to MO (Internal) IL to MO (External/Through) IL to MO (External-Internal)


Projected Annual Travel Time Savings:All Bridges

Projected Annual Travel Time Savings:All BridgesAnnual Weekday Travel Time Savings Compared to No Build:

AM Westbound Vehicle Trips - All Bridges (Hours)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLK Coupler MRB 70/64/3-$1/$3

MRB 70/64-$1/$3

MRB 70-$1/$3 MRB 70/64/3-$2/$4

All Bridges


Key FindingsKey Findings• MRB 70 does not optimize

transportation benefits without the I-64 connection

• MRB 70/64 connection is the most cost-effective “MRB” alternative, with a capital cost of $1.56 billion

• MLK Coupler provides some 60% of the user benefits of MRB 70/64 at about 35% of the cost

• Tolling reduces the effectiveness of all MRB alternatives

Funding SourcesFunding Sources

• Committed Sources―SAFETEA-LU Earmarks ($239 million)―IDOT Funding ($210 million)

• Potential Sources―Local/regional taxes/assessments―Additional federal support―Tolls

Public Tolling Authority Public-Private Partnership/Concession

Committed Funding and Funding GapCommitted Funding and Funding Gap

Potential Funding Scenario/ Funding Gap Analysis(in millions)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Funding Gap $1,295 $1,094 $560 $97

Potential Additional IDOT $227 $227 $210 $210

SAFETEA-LU Earmarks $239 $239 $239 $239

MRB 70/64/3 MRB 70/64 MRB 70 MLK

Potential Supplemental Funding: Toll RevenuePotential Supplemental Funding: Toll Revenue

• Public Toll Agency

• Public-Private Partnership Concession

Public Toll Agency Approach:Potential Bond IssuePublic Toll Agency Approach:Potential Bond Issue

Toll Revenue Bond Range

Percent of Total Project Costs

MRB 70/64/3$1 auto / $3 truck

$100-$150 M 6-9%

MRB 70/64$1 auto / $3 truck

$100-$150 M 7-9%

MRB 70$1 auto / $3 truck

$80-$110 M 8-11%


$80-$160 M 5-9%

Public Toll Agency – Funding ScenarioPublic Toll Agency – Funding Scenario


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Funding Gap $1,172 $971 $450 $1,177

Toll Bonds $125 $125 $100 $120

IDOT Funds $227 $227 $210 $227

SAFETEA-LU Earmark $239 $239 $239 $239

MRB 70/64/3:$1A/$3T MRB 70/64-$1A/$3T MRB 70: $1A/$3T MRB 70/64/3: $2A/$4T

Public-Private Partnership ConcessionPublic-Private Partnership Concession• 75-Year Concession Period

• 99-Year Concession Period

Public-Private Partnership Concession:Potential Bid Value

Public-Private Partnership Concession:Potential Bid Value

75-Year Concession Value


99-Year Concession Value



$235-$335 M

13-19%$325-$470

M18-27%

MRB 70/64$1 auto / $3 truck

$235-$330 M

15-21%$330-$460

M21-24%

MRB 70$1 auto / $3 truck

$185-$250 M

19-25%$260-$350

M26-35%


$180-$360 M

10-20%$254-$490

M14-28%

Private Concession: 75-Year Funding ScenarioPrivate Concession: 75-Year Funding Scenario


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Funding Gap $962 $768 $300 $942

Private Concession $335 $328 $250 $355

IDOT Funds $227 $227 $210 $227



Private Concession: 99-Year Funding ScenarioPrivate Concession: 99-Year Funding Scenario


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Funding Gap $829 $640 $203 $804

Private Concession $468 $456 $347 $493

IDOT Funds $227 $227 $210 $227



What is the Funding Potential? (Order of Magnitude Estimates)What is the Funding Potential? (Order of Magnitude Estimates)

Public Toll Agency Approach

Public-Private PartnershipConcession Approach:

75-Year Period

Public-Private PartnershipConcession Approach:

99-Year Period

$80 - $160 M $180 - $360 M $250 - $470 M

Key Findings: Financing the ProjectKey Findings: Financing the Project• Tolling significantly reduces the

effectiveness of all alternatives• However, in the absence of other viable

sources, tolling and PPP/Concession could provide funding to partially offset shortfall―Remaining shortfall for MRB 70/64 is in the

range of $700 M

• Concession approach could create difficulty in improving existing free bridges, approach ramps, and connections

• Funding shortfall for MLK Coupler is approximately $100 M

Choices for the FutureChoices for the Future

• Can all parties agree on numbers and forecasts?

• Can Missouri and Illinois find common ground?―If there are insufficient sources of funds, will

Illinois accept “discounted” tolls for Illinois residents to achieve equity?

―If a toll authority or concession cannot be achieved, will Missouri accept the MLK Coupler alternative?

• Is the St. Louis business community willing to “pitch in?”

• In the absence of consensus, should the committed funds be used for early action projects, and defer building the bridge?


Option 1:

• Move forward with most significant components of new bridge: MRB 70/64

• Close funding gap Identify additional

funding sources – public/private

Achieve consensus on tolling


Option 2:

• Move forward with MLK “Coupler”

• Initiate design and environmental studies

• Close funding gap Identify additional

public funding sources


Option 3:

• Move forward with improvements to the existing bridges I-70/I-64 “tri-level”

interchange Connections from

Poplar Bridge to Interstates

• Leaves open the possibility for future new bridge


Option 4:

• Do nothing

• Reprogram federal earmarked funds


An Analysis of Alternatives


An Analysis of AlternativesFinal Report Presentation

January 31, 2007

Final Report PresentationJanuary 31, 2007

Sharon Greene & Associates

Documents

Mississippi River Bridge An Analysis of Alternatives DRAFT Final Report Presentation January 31, 2007