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MISO LOLE Modeling of
Wind and Demand Response
Item-9b
LOLE Best Practices Working Group
July 26-27, 2012
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Overview
• Wind Capacity Modeling
– MISO performs a detailed analysis to determine
what the capacity value of wind should be used in:
• Capacity Market Resources (Tariff Module-E)
• Resource Adequacy & LOLE type Studies
• Other models that require a capacity value
representation for wind
• Demand Response (DR) Modeling
– A description of LOLE modeling technique using
available MISO market data (Tariff Module-E)
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Why do we calculate Wind Capacity Credit?
• So that wind capacity can be treated comparable to
traditional dispatchable capacity for Resource Adequacy
and locational aspects.
– MISO reserve margin requirement for 2012 year is 16.7%. Reserve
margins are mandatory and determined by MISO
– Capacity has value.
– Wind is intermittent any may not be available on-peak. If not
available on peak then it has diminished capacity and economic
value
– The LMP for Wind energy is treated comparable in the real-time
market, usually as a price taker; however wind can optionally offer
short term prices under terms of Dispatchable Intermittent
Resources (DIR) and set market price.
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MISO Wind – 11,000 MW and Growing
140+ Wind CP-Nodes
Red locations indicate Dispatchable Interment Recourses (DIR)
The MISO process for determining Wind Capacity
consists of two steps:
1. Step-1 utilizes a Probabilistic approach to calculate the
MISO system-wide Effective Load Carrying Capability
(ELCC) value for all wind resources in the MISO footprint
– 1 day in 10 year outage reliability standard
– USE GE MARS program – Monte Carlo
2. Step-2 is a Deterministic Period Metric that results in
a value for each wind resource at each of the 140+ wind
CP-Nodes on the MISO system
• The 2012 LOLE Study Report
• Chapter-3 describes Step-1
• Appendix-F describes Step-2 • https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Study/LOLE/2012%20L
OLE%20Study%20Report.pdf
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Effective Load Carrying Capability
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• Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC)
– defined as the amount of incremental load a resource,
such as wind, can dependably and reliably serve,
while considering the probabilistic nature of
generation shortfalls and random forced outages as
driving factors to load not being served
ELCC Calculation
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Base System
Base System
+ New Resource
(Wind)
LOLE = 0.15 days/year (or 1½ days in 10 years)
LOLE = 0.08 days/year (or 0.8 days in 10 years)
Example System “With” & “Without” New Resource
Base System
Base System
+ New Resource
(Wind)
LOLE = 0.1 days/year (or 1 day in 10 years)
LOLE = 0.1 days/year (or 1 day in 10 years)
Decreased Load
Load Increased
-200 MW
+100 MW 1000 MW
Nameplate
ELCC Example System at the same LOLE
• To measure ELCC of a particular resource, the reliability effects
need to be isolated for the resource in question, from those of all the
other sources. This is accomplished by calculating the LOLE of two
different cases: one “with” and one “without” the resource
Calculation methodology
• Step 1 – Yearly LOLE simulation with historic hourly wind output and
hourly load, LOLE benchmark level is set
• Step 2 – Yearly LOLE simulation without the wind, load reduction by
trail & error until LOLE benchmark level is met
• Step 3 – The load reduction to meet the LOLE benchmark is the
Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC)
• Step 4 – Plot historic wind ELCC values (left most graph points)
• Step 5 – Repeat Steps 1-4 but at increased wind penetration levels
(10%, 20% & 30%) to develop penetration curves
• Step 6 – Average the 7 curve points at the current system penetration
level to establish MISO System-Wide ELCC Wind Capacity Credit
• Step 7 – Calculate Wind Capacity Credit by CP-node by taking wind
CP-node output at 8 different daily peak load hours for each year of
historic operations to deterministically determine each individual wind
CP-Nodes contribution to the System-Wide Capacity Value
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Historical tracking chart
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Market-wide Operational Tracking
Peak Load (MW)
Planning Year (PY)
Actual Metered
Wind MW at Peak Load
1
Registered Max MW Capacity (RMax)
Peak Day % of
(RMax) Historical
Penetration
Annual Historical
ELCC
MISO Capacity
Credit
109,473 2005 104 908 11.5% 0.8% 16.7% N/A
113,095 2006 700 1,251 56.0% 1.1% 39.6% N/A
101,800 2007 44 2,065 2.1% 2.0% 2.8% N/A
96,321 2008 384 3,086 12.4% 3.2% 12.8% N/A
94,185 2009 86 5,636 1.4% 6.0% 3.1% 20.0%
107,171 2010 1,770 8,179 21.3% 7.6% 18.9% 8.0%
102,804 2011 4,421 9,996 42.8% 9.7% 30.1% 12.9%
Pending 2012 Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending 14.7%
Note 1 Curtailed and DIR MW have been added to settlement MW
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141
Number of CPnodes Ordered by Capacity Credit %
Wind CPnode Capacity Credit Percent Results
CPnode Capacity Credit (%)
14.7% System Wide ELCC
10 GWPenetration
20 GWPenetration
30 GWPenetration
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Penetration
Wind Capacity Credit Method
14.7% System-Wide Wind ELCC Value
If Appliedto Past
Capacity Credit Projection
Demand Response (DR) Modeling
• Current LOLE modeling practice not that sophisticated
– DR is being modeled as an energy limited resources
– Modeled as a unit of last resort on as needed basis to reduce LOLE
– Model parameters are driven by capacity market inputs
• Demand Response Background
– DR is categorized as a Load Modifying Resource (LMR)
• Behind the Meter Generation is also an LMR
– LMRs are one of the various steps of Emergency Operation
Procedures (EOPs)
• EOP step table on next slide
• LMRs are emergency steps taken before shedding firm load
– To participate as a capacity resource, LMRs have a tariff defined
minimum requirement to be able to be called for 5-events lasting
4-hours each (20 total hours of use)
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Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs)
Resource Levels
14
Contact Info
• Brandon Heath – (651) 632 - 8473
• Davey Lopez – (317) 249 - 5109
• Chuck Tyson – (651) 632 - 8405
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