2017

by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider Director of Research and Education MarketGauge.com

Mish’s Picks

Uncertainty Is The New Sure Thing

Ed. 2

©2017 MarketGauge.com 1

Mish’s Picks for 2017

Who is Mish?

Michele 'Mish' Schneider, has 30+ Years of Trading

and Teaching Experience.

Mish currently serves as Director of Trading Research

and Education at MarketGauge.com. She writes and

produces our daily market analysis in "Mish's Daily",

and serves as a developer and trading mentor in

several our trading services.

Mish is a former floor trader on several New York

Commodity Exchanges, including Coffee, Sugar and

Cocoa, NYMEX and FINEX in NYC. While on the trading floor she also

served as a market analyst for two of the largest commodity trading

firms at the time - Continental Grain, and Conti-Commodities.

Mish has an M.S. Special Education, and has applied her educational

expertise as a curriculum improvement consultant to school districts in

the North East and New Mexico.

Mish is currently also a Managing Member in Market Gauge Asset

Management Company, LLC, and a partner in Wizard IP, a software

development company.

Mish was just recognized by MarketWatch as one of the world’s

top 50 Stock Market Analysts.

In December 2016, MarketWatch, an online publication owned by Dow

Jones, published “The Twitter accounts investors need to follow in

2017.” Written by Barbara Kollmeyer, her sub headline read, “These

financial tweeters will make you money or at least make you laugh.”

She goes on to write, “It’s that time again. That is, time for you to clean

out your Twitter closet as 2017 arrives. Toss the bots and Eggheads,

and add a few names who might actually give good guidance in what is

sure to be an interesting year for investors…. Michele Schneider, director

©2017 MarketGauge.com 2

of research and trading education at MarketGauge, tosses up techs and

charts.”

Uncertainty is the New Sure Thing

Looking at the Macro Picture, Mish continues to find the most value in

using technical analysis to assess next year’s trends.

She looks mainly for instruments that have reversed a 7-year trend or

are about to. Furthermore, she notes those instruments that should

continue their existing 7-year trend.

At the end of 2016, Mish looked at the Modern Family and the other 3

indices to decipher if they:

1. Have reversed a 7-year trend,

2. Are about to reverse a 7-year trend or are

3. Poised to continue a 7-year trend.

Here’s the verdict:

The Russell 2000: Poised to continue trend up if holds 129.00, the

June 2015 high. However, caveat that it must also clear above 139.00.

NASDAQ 100: Poised to continue trend up if holds if holds 115.75 the

December 2015 high. Must clear 121.50 to continue higher.

The Dow: Poised to continue trend up if holds if holds 183.35 the May

2015 high.

The S&P 500: Poised to continue trend up if holds if holds 214.00 the

May 2015 high.

That means, although a correction would not be out of the question,

the room to the downside is palpable before we can really say bull run

is over.

©2017 MarketGauge.com 3

The most concerning aspect is reflected in the chart below:

This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. The dotted line is the 50-week

moving average. The solid line is the 200-week moving average. I use

a weekly chart so we can assess a longer-term outlook and not get

swayed by short-term volatility.

One major difference though between the bullish phase of most of 2015

and the second half of 2016? The distance between the 50 and 200 week

moving averages. Note that in 2015 the distance between the two was

quite wide. In 2016, that distance narrowed considerably.

What does that potentially set us up for?

Should SPY head back into a warning phase, the 50 is now much closer

to the 200 WMA. That could mean that if SPY breaks the 200 WMA and

heads into a distribution phase, should things go from bad to worse, we

could see a “death cross” or when the 50 intersects below the 200 WMA.

That would put the SPY in a bearish phase. Last time that happened was

in October 2009. And we all know how that worked out for the market!

©2017 MarketGauge.com 4

Modern Family Sectors

Retail (XRT): As you know, with retail 70% of the Gross Domestic

Product, this has already shown signs it could reverse its 7-year trend.

On the monthly chart, XRT is below the 23-month moving average. On

the weekly chart, it could break down sooner.

The Biotechnology (IBB): Has reversed a 2-year trend and could be

setup to reverse the 7-year trend if breaks under 203.00 First area of

support though is 240.00.

©2017 MarketGauge.com 5

Transportation (IYT): Less clear. A move under 145.00 will reverse

a 2-year bull trend. A move over 168.00 more in line with a bullish

continuation.

Regional Banks (KRE): Poised to continue trend up if holds if holds

providing no apocalyptic event occurs.

©2017 MarketGauge.com 6

Semiconductors (SMH): Poised to continue trend up if holds if holds

providing no apocalyptic event occurs.

The disparity among sectors became more disparate. For now, the

indices say no fire and brimstone on the immediate horizon. Yet, Retail

and Biotech-or the gauge for US economic growth and speculative

interest -say otherwise.

Four Categories of Specific Picks

Mish’s specific stock picks are in four different categories: Longs in big

trends, shorts breaking big trends, fundamental and technical bases,

and undervalued protracted bearish moves.

Long Picks In Big Trends

These picks are holding or clearing 80-month (7-year) and/or 23-

month (2-year) moving averages reversing a long-term trend.

Exelon Group EXC-Holding 23-mo about to clear 80-month

India Fund IFN-20.50 should hold-looking for return over 80-month

or around 23.00

Sugar SGG-over 23-monthly support 36.50

©2017 MarketGauge.com 7

Newfield Exploration NFX-over 23 and 80-monthly. See big

potential. The chart below illustrates the two moving averages and

how Mish looks for longer term trend reversals. Since 2011, NFX has

traded below the 80-month MA until 2016.

KB Home KBH-over 23 and 80-monthly should hold 14.50 (reports

earnings 1/11)

Taiwan EWT-over both MAs and should hold 28.00

Beazer Homes BZH-if holds 10 can see move over 16.50 positive

US Oil Fund USO-Looking for a weekly close over 12.00-then risk is

to around 10.60 longer term

Oil Services OIH-should hold 30.00 and needs to clear 40.00

DB Commodity Index DBC-over 23-mo and needs to hold 15.00

USG Corp USG-over both MAs-monthly close over 30.00 good

Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX-12.70 support and has room

Cliff Natural Resources CLF-over 23-mo with 200 WMA at 11.15

©2017 MarketGauge.com 8

Short Picks Breaking Big Trend

These picks have broken a 23-month and/or 80-month trend

Twenty-First Century FOX-Already broke the 23-month moving

average and 26.00 the 80-month to break. The chart below shows

clearly the potential breakdown and a possible death cross in the

works should weakness continue.

Wynn Resorts WYNN-below the 80-Month with 60 first target

Dish Network DISH-If cannot hold above 60.00 and fails 58.00 lots

of room to the downside

Bed, Bath and Beyond BBBY-under 80-Month with room to 25.00 or

worse

EQT Corp. EQT-Broke the 80-month and the 200-week moving

averages. 69.00 should be resistance now with a break of 63.00

reason to see a move down to 50.00

©2017 MarketGauge.com 9

Apple Inc. AAPL-Bold prediction-needs to fail 112.00 on a monthly

close first

Facebook FB-under 117.00 see 107.00 then under than trouble

Whole Foods WFM-under both MAs and under 30.75 trouble down to

28 or lower

Baidu Inc. BIDU-Already in bear phase, the monthly chart breaks

down under 150

Picks With Fundamental and Technical Bases

These picks have both fundamental and technical bases. The price

parameters are listed. Most of these are newer issues and do not have

enough data to assess 2 and 7-year trends.

Avangrid Inc. AGR-should hold 36.00.

Livestock COW-over the 50 WMA but must clear 24-the 23-mo MA

Uranium URA-like to see over 15.00 (Cameco Corp CCJ stock-12.26

clears 23-month) (Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings CCO-over 80-

month)

Cara Therapeutics CARA-close over 10.00 positive

Dunkin’ Brands Group DNKN-Monthly chart shows possible inverted

head and shoulders. Close over 55.00 good

Yelp Inc YELP-30 support and monthly close over 40.00 can take it

to 50.00 or higher

Pandora P-Holds 10.00 and clears 15.00 could see 20.00 or higher

Gaming and Leisure Properties GLPI-if holds 26.00 and has

monthly close over 32.00-positive

DB Agricultural Fund DBA-A monthly close over 20.00 first step

Greece GREK-a monthly close over 8.60 good with lots of room up

eHealth EHTH-2 years under the 23 and 80-monthly MAs and could

be basing

Icahn Enterprises IEP-Must clear 64.00 the 80-month MA if holds

55.00

©2017 MarketGauge.com 10

JC Penney JCP-if clears 8.80 and then can get a monthly close over

10.00-upside room-note-an older issue therefore enough data for

longer-term trend chart.

Undervalued Picks In Protracted Bear Moves

These are not quite setup yet, but have potential as they are

undervalued compared to the rest of the market and have experienced

protracted bear moves.

FireEye FEYE-Given the rise of hacking, undervalued-weekly close

over 14 positive

Blue Buffalo Pet Products BUFF-22 support with monthly close over

25 positive

Blackberry BBRY-monthly close over 8 positive

Brookdale Senior Living BKD-if holds 11.00, could see a move to fill

a gap at 14.25 plus possible to get to 16.00

©2017 MarketGauge.com 11

First Solar FSLR-been under pressure since 2011. Waiting to see if

this can first get a monthly close back over the 23-month moving

average or dotted line.

Honorable Mention

The Volatility Index VXX- Note the date-April 2017 and the first 100

days of the new administration complete-this could be the time we

finally see volatility pick up

Stay Current With Mish’s Picks

Keep up to date with Mish’s Picks, additional market analysis and

trading idea by following here:

Twitter @marketminute - A MarketWatch, “Top 50 Twitter accounts

investors need to follow”

Mish Market Minute Daily – Unique daily analysis of the markets based

on Mish’s Modern Family.

Mish’s Market Minute Advantage – Follow Mish’s every move - entry,

stops and exits in trades she puts on to teach you how to swing trade.