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HOW DOES RISING RURAL POPULATION DENSITYAFFECT SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?
EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, KENYA & MALAWI
Milu Muyanga, J. Ricker-Gilbert , D. Headey, A. L. Josephson, T.S. Jayne
Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)
Presentation at the Food Seminar at IFPRI, September 4, 2014, IFPRI Headquarters , Washington DC, USA
10
Motivation• Population densities in many sub-Saharan Africa are
much higher than they were two decades ago
• The rising rural population densities are profoundly affecting farming systems• Diminishing land sizes and limited scope of accessing land
• Limited off-farm opportunities
• Are increasing population densities inducing innovations aimed at intensifying the use of land?• Consistent with the induced innovation theories of Boserup (1965)
and Ruttan and Hayami (1971)
9
Total rural population projections
Source: UN Pop Council, 2013
8
Local analysts point to historical land
injustices as the main cause of the 2007
post-election violence and the 2014
killings in the coastal region of Kenya
Increasing land conflicts-Newspaper Headlines
7
Effects of population density on smallholder-intensification– analytical framework
6
Data sources• Ethiopia: 6 waves of household-level data from the Ethiopian Rural
Household Surveys covering 1293 households
• Kenya: 5 waves of panel survey data on 1,146 farm households
• Malawi: 3 waves of rural farm households; only 1375 households
were re-interviewed in the last wave
• Geographic Information Systems: Population and land estimates data
came from two GIS databases:
• Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP)
• GlobCover 2009
5
RESULTS: ETHIOPIA
4
Household landholding /adult equivalent by population density
Kilogram of fertilizer used/ha, by population density
RESULTS: KENYA 3
Figure 1: Fertilizer quantities applied per hectare cultivated 50
100
150
200
250
kgs/
ha
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 2: Total value of cash expenditures per ha cultivated
810
1214
1618
'000
KSh/
ha
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 4: Net crop income per hectare cultivated
2040
6080
'000
KSh
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 5: Net crop income per family labor (resident adults)
1520
2530
35
'000
KS
h
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
RESULTS: MALAWI 2
Fertilizer kg/ha, by pop. den. Gross value of crop output/ha, by pop. den.
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
99th percentile010
0020
0030
0040
00fa
rm in
com
e pe
r adu
lt eq
uiva
lent
s
0 200 400 600population / square km of land
Farm Income per Adult Equivalent, by pop. den. Value of assets/adult equivalent, by pop. den.
Summary of findings• Rural population density is projected to increase by 48% in sub-
Saharan Africa in the next 35 years
• Population density is endogenous- what are the drivers of population density in sub-Saharan Africa?
• Rising population densities are influencing household behavior and farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa• Intensification is not possible beyond some population density thresholds
• 13% of the rural population in Kenya live in areas beyond the thresholds
• Our results do not explain the reasons for the decline in agricultural intensification• Signs of unsustainable agricultural intensification– reduced fallows; soil
mining, etc.
1
Acknowledgements
0