Millersville University of Pennsylvania · Web viewOf all PACE students, 35.81% enrolled in an HMSS department, whereas less than half that number (15.31% in Education and 17.12%

Summary of Retention & Graduation Trends

This analysis covers the retention and academic performance trends of students admitted into Millersville University between Fall 1995 and Fall 2010. Data was collected by the University and includes demographic (i.e., ethnicity and gender) as well as academic data (i.e., yearly persistence, graduation, department and school at entry, and department and school at graduation). Additionally, academic performance data (i.e., course grade, course semester) was gathered from the transcripts of students who declared either no major or a major with the School of Humanities and Social Sciences between 2003 and 2010.

University Demographics

EthnicityThe University’s ethnic make-up has consistently been primarily Caucasian, with these students making up 81.9% of all admitted students. African-Americans made up the next largest ethnic group, making up 8.4% of all admitted students. Table 1 provides the raw numbers and percentages of all students admitted between 1995 and 2010.

Table 1Ethnic Demographics of University Population

N Percent of PopulationAfrican-American 1668 8.4Asian 312 1.6Latino 710 3.6Caucasian 16275 81.9Other* 203 1.0Missing 712 3.6Total 19880 100.0* “Other” category is comprised of Native Americans, Non-resident Aliens, and Multiethnic individuals. None of these groups exceeded .5% of the total population on their own.

GenderThe majority of students admitted into Millersville University were female, making up 58.5% of the population (n = 11632). Males comprised 41.5% of the total population (n = 8248).

Cohort SizeCohort size has averaged 1242.5 students per cohort, ranging from 977 admitted students in 1995 to 1384 students admitted in 2004. All class sizes except for one since 2000 have exceeded this average, ranging from 1238 admitted in 2001 to 1384 admitted in 2004.

Demographics by SchoolEthnicityAnalysis of the data indicates that the vast majority of the student body classified themselves as “Caucasian” (see Table 2). Caucasians made up almost 10 times the size of the next largest ethnic group (African Americans).

Page 1 of 24

Table 2Ethnic Make-up of Schools

African-American

Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Total

HMSS 629 (9.8) 99 (1.5) 258 (4.0) 5075 (79.4) 78 (1.2) 250 (3.9) 6389Ed 262 (6.6) 35 (.9) 86 (2.2) 3430 (86.7) 26 (.7) 119 (3.0) 3958M & S 335 (7.9) 110 (2.5) 150 (3.3) 3660 (81.5) 51 (1.1) 163 (3.6) 4489None 422 (8.4) 68 (1.3) 216 (4.3) 4110 (81.5) 48 (1.0) 180 (3.6) 5044Total 1668 (8.4) 312 (1.6) 710 (3.6) 16275 (81.9) 203 (1.0) 712 (3.6) 19880Numbers in parentheses are percentage of rows.HMSS = School of Humanities and Social SciencesEd = School of EducationM & S = School of Math & SciencesNone = Exploratory

Ethnic minority groups made up a larger percentage of the student population within the School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HMSS) than within any other school (see Figure 1). For example, whereas just under 80% of the student population in the HMSS were Caucasian, Caucasians made up 83% or more of each of the other schools. African Americans and Latinos in particular were more likely to choose a major within HMSS than the other two Schools when first entering the University.

Figure 1

African-American10%

Asian2%

Latino4%

Caucasian80%

Other1%

Missing4%

Ethnic Make-Up of HMSS

Admission TypeWhen examining the admission categories of students entering Millersville, a disparity appeared in the proportions of admissions types across the three Schools (see Table 3). Of all PACE students, 35.81% enrolled in an HMSS department, whereas less than half that number (15.31% in Education and 17.12% in Math and Sciences) chose departments in other Schools. Almost one-third (31.75%) of PACE students did not declare a major. Additionally, PACE students

Page 2 of 24

made up 8.96% of all admitted students in HMSS department, whereas they made up 6.19% of students in Education (Ed), and 6.1% in Math and Sciences (M & S). In short, a greater number of PACE students declared a major within HMSS than in the other two Schools.

Table 3School Demographics by Admit Type and Ethnicity, 1995 -2010

Admit Type School African-American Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing TotalRegular HMSS 296

(5.1)83

(1.4)141 (2.4)

5009 (86.1)

70 (1.2)

217 (3.7)

5816

Ed 118(3.2)

29(.8)

57(1.6)

3374(90.9)

22(.6)

112(3.0)

3713

M & S 175(4.2)

94 (2.2)

111 (2.6)

3637 (86.3)

50 (1.2)

148 (3.5)

4215

None 174(3.8)

49 (1.1)

88 (1.9)

4026 (88.8)

38(.8)

161 (3.5)

4536

Overall 763(4.2)

255 (1.5)

398 (2.2)

16046 (87.8)

180 (1.0)

638 (3.5)

18280

PACE HMSS 333(58.1)

16 (2.8)

117 (20.4)

66(11.5)

8(1.4)

33(5.8)

573

Ed 144(58.8)

6 (2.4)

28 (11.4)

56(22.9)

4(1.6)

7(2.9)

245

M & S 180(65.7)

16 (5.8)

39 (14.2)

23(8.4)

1(.4)

15(5.5)

274

None 248(48.8)

19 (3.7)

128 (25.2)

84(16.5)

10 (2.0)

19(3.7)

508

Overall 905(56.6)

57 (3.6)

312 (19.5)

229 (14.3)

23 (1.4)

74(4.6)

1600

Numbers in parentheses are percentages of row.

High School Class RankAnalysis of the data indicates a significant difference in class rank among the three Schools and undeclared students, F (3, 17917) = 236.469, p = .000. Students entering HMSS departments as freshmen generally had a lower class rank (m = 68.71) than students entering Education (m = 74.48) or Math and Sciences departments (m = 73.57). HMSS students’ rank exceeded only those of undeclared students (m = 65.37). Additionally, a significant difference in class rank emerged among the ethnicities, with Caucasians having the highest class rank (71st percentile), and African Americans having the lowest (61st percentile), F (5, 17915) = 103.280, p = .000. Finally, regular admission students’ class rank (71.32) exceeded those of alternative admission students (m = 55.95), t (17919) = 30.732, p = .000.

SAT ScoreSAT scores of HMSS students appear to lag behind those of their peers in other Schools, aside from exploratory students (see Table 4). When examining the interaction effect of ethnicity and school at entry of Math, Verbal, and Composite scores, significant differences emerged for each, FMath (15, 19642) = 3.149, p = .000; FVerbal (15, 19642) = 2.566, p = .001; FComposite (15, 19642) = 2.838, p = .000. HMSS students’ math scores were below the University average, as were their composite scores. However, their verbal scores were above the University average. The data also show that Caucasians’ SAT scores exceeded those of other ethnic groups and that regular

Page 3 of 24

admit students (M = 542.38, V = 536.25, C = 1078.63) had higher scores than PACE students (M = 400.47, V = 408.05, C = 808.53) , tMath (19664) = 80.514, p = .000; tVerbal (19664) = 73.016, p = .000; tComposite (19664) = 92.514, p = .000.

Table 4Average SAT Scores Across Schools and Ethnicities, 1995 - 2010

African-American

Asian Latino Caucasian

Other Missing Overall

Math HMSS 435.68 516.34 452.83 535.2 510.17 516.42 520.79Ed 437.41 512.06 478.21 545.4 507.39 538.07 536.09M & S 435.58 552.69 497.4 575.83 574.05 559.07 562.39None 425.45 501.04 432.47 525.19 496.89 513.46 511.86Overall 437.18 525.46 458.93 543.98 522.13 529.11 530.98

Verbal HMSS 450.63 508.39 463.54 545.46 496.95 531.02 531.21Ed 446.06 485 478.45 537.83 522.61 528.99 529.68M & S 448.24 487.04 488.56 545.56 499.29 523.27 533.32None 433.66 484.48 437.81 522.31 467.78 510.39 509.83Overall 445.11 492.81 462.65 538.03 493.25 523.67 525.95

Composite HMSS 886.31 1024.73

916.38 1080.66 1007.12 1047.44 1052.00

Ed 883.47 997.06 956.67 1083.22 1030.00 1067.06 1065.78M & S 901.82 1039.7

2985.96 1121.39 1073.33 1082.35 1095.71

None 589.11 985.52 870.28 1047.5 964.67 1023.85 1021.69Overall 882.29 1018.2

8921.57 1082.02 1015.38 1052.78 1056.93

SummaryIn sum, the diversity of the HMSS student body exceeded that of the other 2 Schools. Students admitted through an alternative admission program also tended to gravitate toward HMSS as opposed to the other two Schools. However, students entering HMSS appeared to lag behind their peers who declared majors in either Education or Math and Sciences. This was evident in generally lower SAT scores as well as lower class ranks.

Academic Performance at Millersville UniversityTo understand the academic performance of HMSS students, we analyzed their average course load as well as their performance in certain General Education required courses during their first two years of enrollment.

Course LoadUniversity-wide, students in Math & Science earned the most credits in their first term (14.80) followed by students in HMSS (14.62), Education (14.58), and exploratory students (14.36), F (3, 19876) = 85.851, p = .000. Additionally, a significant difference emerged in the number of credit hours taken by regular-admit students and PACE students. Regular admission students took an average of 14.71 credits during a semester, whereas PACE students enrolled for only 13.15 credits, t (19878) = 46.914, p = .000. Additionally, Caucasian students took the most credits in the first term (14.71), with Latinos (13.80) and African Americans (13.76) taking fewer, F (5, 19874) = 212.595, p = .000.

Page 4 of 24

For HMSS students, similar trends emerged. On average, PACE students completed 13.21 credits per semester, whereas regular admit students completed 14.71 credits, t (6387) = 27.157, p = .000. African American students and Latino students averaged 13.87 and 13.74 credit hours per semester respectively through their first four semesters whereas Asian and Caucasian students averaged 14.24 and 14.72 credit hours respectively during the same time period, F (5, 6383) = 72.936, p = .000.

Additionally, for HMSS students between 2003 and 2010, non-majority students were more likely to take summer courses than were majority students, x2 (5) = 783.619, p = .000. For example, 7.9% of African-American students and 7.1% of Latino students completed a summer course, whereas 3.5% of Asian and 1.9% of Caucasians completed a summer course. In terms of admission type, 14.7% of PACE students completed a summer course whereas only 2% of regular admission students completed a summer course. x2 (3) = 2282.945, p = .000.

Course PerformanceTo examine HMSS students’ performance while at Millersville, we analyzed the performance during their first four semesters in courses between 2003 and 2010 as seen in their earned qualifying points for each class completed (i.e., GPA). We also analyzed their performance in six General Education-required courses: English 010, English 110, Communication 010, Communication 100, Math 090, and Math 100.

Overall Grade Point AverageAnalysis of students’ transcripts revealed that grade point averages generally increased from semester 1 to semester 4. Grade point averages were 2.672 during semester 1, 2.673 during semester 2, 2.781 during semester 3, and 2.87 during semester 4.

Data indicated that there were significant differences in first semester grade point averages across ethnicities (F (15, 60657) = 2.747, p = .000) and admit types (F (9, 60665, = 9.706, p = .000) (see Tables 5 and 6). Caucasians earned the highest GPA (2.799), with African-Americans earning the lowest GPA (1.951). PACE students earned a lower GPA (2.086) than regular admission students (2.734). These patterns were consistent through the first four semesters.

Additionally, GPA for summer classes (m = 2.629), which ethnic minority and PACE students were more likely to take, were significantly lower than that of traditional semester (fall and spring) courses (m = 2.732), t (54482) = -3.334, p = .001.

Analysis of majors’ overall GPA also revealed differences among departments at the end of 4 semesters, F (39, 60605) = 4.789, p =.000. GPA ranged from 2.379 to 3.149 (see Table 7).

Table 51st Semester and 1st Year Grade Point Averages across Ethnicities, 2003-2010

1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester OverallAfrican American 1.951 1.891 2.069 2.273 2.612Asian 2.591 2.762 2.727 2.599 2.649

Page 5 of 24

Latino 2.267 2.216 2.333 2.437 2.818Caucasian 2.799 2.804 2.876 2.955 2.902Other 2.284 2.275 2.612 2.505 2.727Missing 2.612 2.649 2.818 2.902 2.749

Table 61st Semester and 1st Year Grade Point Averages across Admit Types, 2003-2010

1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester OverallRegular 2.734 2.764 2.841 2.925 2.816PACE 2.086 1.86 1.915 2.067 1.982June / January 2.262 2.395 2.451 2.092 2.3

Table 7Grade Point Averages of HMSS Majors through First Four Semesters, 2003 – 2010

1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester OverallArt 2.839 2.873 2.903 2.977 2.898Buad 2.303 2.252 2.376 2.585 2.379Comm 2.667 2.655 2.62 2.637 2.644Econ 2.603 2.544 2.821 2.861 2.707Engl 2.817 2.805 2.948 3.031 2.9Forl 2.944 2.979 2.925 2.994 2.961Geog 2.694 2.885 2.687 3.249 2.879Govt 2.633 2.652 2.849 2.781 2.729Hist 2.755 2.827 3.037 3.039 2.915Musi 3.315 3.003 3.127 3.149 3.149Phil 2.435 2.212 2.863 2.459 2.492Sowk 2.483 2.592 2.833 3.072 2.745Soan 2.410 2.405 2.663 2.747 2.556None 2.684 2.866 2.742 2.930 2.806

General Education Required ClassesA similar pattern seen above was also evident in grade point averages of required courses. Caucasian students consistently ranked at or near the top grade point averages across all courses, whereas African-American students consistently ranked at or near the bottom (Table 8). Latino students’ grade point average was slightly higher than their African American peers.

Table 8Grade Point Average for Required Courses across Ethnicities, 2003 – 2010

ENGL010

ENGL110

COMM 010

COMM 100

MATH 090

MATH 100

African American 1.817 1.969 2.719 2.321 1.114 1.616Asian 1.425 2.89 -- 2.938 2 2.229Latino 1.994 2.124 2.744 2.43 1.469 1.937Caucasian 2.144 2.799 3.286 2.973 1.697 2.455Other 2.057 2.706 2.9 2.574 1.26 2.555Missing 1.897 2.754 2.6 2.873 1.22 2.327Average 1.885 2.658 2.743 2.861 1.322 2.363

Page 6 of 24

F .357 39.411*** 1.261 29.148*** 2.795* 12.394****p < .05***p < .000Likewise, alternative-enrollment students’ grade point average (m = 1.93) lagged behind those of the regular admission students (m = 2.18), exceeding only those students admitted in June / January (m = 1.86) (Table 9).

Table 9Grade Point Averages for Required Courses across Admit Types, 2003 – 2010

ENGL010

ENGL110

COMM 010

COMM 100

MATH 090

MATH 100

PACE 1.901 1.952 2.87 2.279 1.188 1.386Regular 1.00 2.751 - 2.942 1.79 2.423June / January - 2.373 - 2.265 .91 1.878F 2.167 43.473*** -- 43.555*** 5.584** 18.803*****p < .01***p < .000

Additionally, examining pass / fail rates (Tables 10 and 11), there were differences in course outcomes across ethnicities. Caucasian students passed at a greater rate than any other ethnic group, and regular admission students passed at a greater rate than any other admission group.

Table 10Pass / Fail Rates in First Year Courses across Ethnicities, 2003 – 2010

Fail Pass Withdraw Z IncompleteAfrican-American 469

(12.0)3099(79.6)

281(7.2)

36(.9)

8(.2)

Asian 23(4.8)

426(89.1)

27(5.6)

2(.4)

0(.0)

Latino 154(9.7)

1339(84.3)

85(5.4)

9(.6)

1(.1)

Caucasian 1194(4.2)

26101(92.0)

905(3.2)

144(.5)

25(.1)

Other 19(5.4)

294(84.2)

34(9.7)

2(.6)

0(.0)

Missing 159(5.8)

2442(89.3)

122(4.5)

9(.3)

3(.1)

Overall 2018(5.4)

33701(90.1)

1454(3.9)

202(.5)

37(.1)

Numbers in parentheses are percent by row.

Table 11Pass / Fail Rates in First Year Courses across Admit Types, 2003 – 2010

Fail Pass Withdraw Z IncompletePACE 333 (10.6) 2570 (82.2) 191 (6.1) 29 (.9) 5 (.2)Regular 1562 (4.7) 30218 (91.1) 1200 (3.6) 158 (.5) 27 (.1)

Page 7 of 24

June / January 120 (11.3) 866 (81.4) 61 (5.7) 12 (1.1) 5 (.5)Numbers in parentheses are percent by row.

Comparison to National DataThe 2003-04 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics provides a unique comparison with Millersville students’ experiences. For the following table, we limited the student population to those who were enrolled at Master’s comprehensive institutions such as Millersville.

Table 12Academic Performance of Students at Master’s Comprehensive Students, 2003

Ethnicity Taken remedial courses; percent responding “Yes”(reported in 2004)

First Year GPA < 2.0(reported in 2004)

Ever received an incomplete; percent responding “Yes” (reported in 2006)

Ever withdrew or dropped after the add/drop deadline; percent responding “Yes”(reported in 2006)

Caucasian 18.5% 12.1% 12.8% 31.1%African-American

29.9% 23.2% 18.9% 34.6%

Latino 25.3% 17.2% 22.8% 32.9%Asian 21.7% 10.9% 11.5% 45.6%Total 20.6% 13.8% 14.4% 32.8%Source: NCES QuickStats computations, www.nces.ed.gov

According to the above table, African American students were more likely to have taken a remedial course and to have a first year cumulative GPA that was below 2.0. Latino students were more likely to have received an incomplete in a course. Asian students were more likely to have withdrawn from a course after the add/drop deadline.

When comparing the University’s students to this national sample, students within HMSS performed comparably or better than the average. African-American and Latino students had the lowest cumulative first year GPA, consistent with the data in Table 12. Additionally, for students in HMSS between 2003 and 2010, the majority of students enrolled in remedial courses (ENGL 010, COMM 010, and MATH 090) were either African-American or Latino (see Table 13). Yet, students’ reported rates of earning Incompletes or Withdrawals were lower than the national average. Caucasians did report the lowest frequencies of these grades (see Table 10).

Table 13Demographic Make-Up of Remedial Courses, HMSS Students, 2003 – 2010

Ethnicity ENGL 010 COMM 010 MATH 090African-American 190 (56.4) 94 (65.7) 196 (48.3)Asian 4 (1.2) -- 2 (.5)Latino 82 (24.3) 25 (17.5) 67 (16.5)Caucasian 16 (4.7) 7 (4.9) 91 (22.4)Other 7 (2.1) 3 (2.1) 10 (2.5)

Page 8 of 24

http://www.nces.ed.gov/

Missing 38 (11.3) 14 (9.8) 40 (9.9)Total 337 143 406Numbers in parentheses are percentage by column.SummaryAnalysis of transcripts reveals that there was a performance gap in required and other courses among students of different ethnic groups and admission types. Caucasian and regular admission students earned higher grade point averages and passing rates than their peers in other categories.

Retention Rates at Millersville UniversityAnalysis of the retention data shows a variety of trends with regard to University retention of students across admission type, ethnicity, School, and SAT score. The majority of the data analyzed here involves cohorts between 1995 and 2005. More recent cohorts were excluded from analysis because either the data was missing from the University’s records or because fewer than four years had elapsed between the students’ first semester and the time of this analysis.

Ethnicity and SchoolUniversity-wide, the first-year persistence rate of all students remained constant at 72% from 1995 through 2008. However, across the University, persistence fell from years 1 to 4 for all schools (see Table 12, and Figures 2 and 3). Persistence of students who entered HMSS lagged behind persistence of students in the other two Schools, exceeding only those students who entered the University without a declared major.

For regular-admission students, the largest drop in persistence for all Schools came after the first semester. The second largest drop occurred between years 1 and 2. Within HMSS, retention rate fell from 81.2% to 69.5% 2.3% in years 1 and 2. Between year 2 and year 4, this rate fell only another 3.3%. Within HMSS, Caucasian student and Asian student retention exceeded that of African-American, Latino, and “Other” students. In fact, retention rates of African-American, Latino, and “Other” students fell below 60% after year 2, whereas retention rates of Caucasian students never fell below 67%.

Figure 2

Page 9 of 24

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4-Year Persistence Rates Across Schools and Exploratory Students, 1995 - 2005

HMSSEducationMath & SciencesNoneAxis Title

Table 12Percent Persistence Rate Across Schools for Regular Admission Students, 1995 - 2005

Year School African-American

Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Overall

1 HMSS 125(75.8)

51 (85.0)

53 (71.6)

2767 (81.6)

23(76.7)

104(82.5)

3123(81.2)

Ed 61(76.3)

21 (87.5)

25 (86.2)

2069(88.3)

8(72.7)

59(89.4)

2243(87.9)

M & S 68(69.4)

43 (86.0)

43 (71.7)

2080(84.9)

18(69.2)

66(82.5)

2308(83.9)

None 73(74.5)

26 (74.3)

26 (86.4)

2214(79.7)

10(47.6)

66(71.7)

2427(79.1)

Overall 327(74.1)

141 (83.4)

149 (77.2)

9130(83.3)

59(67.0)

295(81.0)

10101(82.7)

2 HMSS 106(64.2)

35(58.3)

40(54.1)

2388(70.4)

19(63.3)

86(68.3)

2674(69.5)

Ed 57(71.3)

18(75.0)

23(79.3)

1908(81.4)

9(81.8)

56(84.8)

2071(81.1)

M & S 56(57.1)

37(74.0)

26(56.5)

1840(75.1)

13(50.0)

51(63.8)

2023(73.5)

None 63(64.3)

20(57.1)

29(65.9)

1869(67.3)

9(42.9)

56(60.9)

2046(66.7)

Overall 282(63.9)

110(65.1)

118(61.1)

8005(73.0)

50(56.8)

249(68.4)

8814(72.2)

3 HMSS 96(58.2)

37(61.7)

39(52.7)

2340(69.0)

18(60.0)

84(66.7)

2614(68.0)

Ed 51(63.8)

16(66.7)

19(65.5)

1868(79.7)

8(72.7)

53(80.3)

2015(78.9)

M & S 50(51.0)

35(70.0)

26(56.5)

1739(71.0)

13(50.0)

51(63.8)

1914(69.6)

Page 10 of 24

None 52(53.1)

20(57.1)

27(61.4)

1804(65.0)

8(38.1)

50(54.3)

1961(63.9)

Overall 249(56.5)

108(63.9)

111(57.5)

7751(70.7)

47(53.4)

238(65.4)

8504(69.6)

4 HMSS 92(55.8)

34(56.7)

34(45.9)

2286(67.4)

18(60.0)

80(63.5)

2544(66.2)

Ed 50(62.5)

15(62.5)

18(62.1)

1840(78.5)

8(72.7)

56(84.8)

1987(77.8)

M & S 50(51.0)

34(68.0)

26(56.5)

1714(69.9)

12(46.2)

49(61.3)

1885(68.5)

None 50(51.0)

19(54.3)

29(65.9)

1740(62.7)

6(28.6)

52(56.5)

1896(61.8)

Overall 242(54.9)

102(60.4)

107(55.4)

7580(69.2)

44(50.0)

237(65.1)

8312(68.0)

Figure 3

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

4-Year Persistence Rates by Ethnicity, 1995 - 2005

African AmericanAsianLatinoCaucasianOtherMissing

Axis Title

Admission TypeStudents admitted through regular admission were significantly more likely to persist through their four years of undergraduate education than students admitted through alternative admissions programs (x2 (1) = 287.811, p = .000) (see Table 13). Whereas persistence rate of PACE students was 67.5% after year 1, regular-admission student persistence rates did not reach that level until year 4 (see Figure 4). Figure 5 provides a longitudinal snapshot contrasting the first year persistence rates of regular and PACE admission students University-wide between 1995 and 2005.

Page 11 of 24

Figure 4

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

4-Year Retention Rates by Admission Types, 1995 - 2005

RegularPACE

Axis Title

Table 13Percent Persistence Rate Across Schools for PACE Students, 1995 – 2005

Year School African-American


1 HMSS 161(68.2)

8(53.3)

55(69.6)

35(67.3)

2(56.3)

9(56.3)

270(67.5)

Ed 79(68.7)

4(66.7)

12(54.5)

34(75.6)

1(100.0)

2(100.0)

132(69.1)

M & S 77(73.9)

7(43.8)

14(51.9)

13(72.2)

0(0)

4(100.0)

137(68.5)

None 113(74.3)

7(58.3)

44(58.7)

36(67.9)

3(75.0)

7(63.6)

210(68.4)

Overall 452(71.0)

26(53.1)

125(61.6)

118(70.2)

6(75.0)

22(66.7)

749(68.2)

2 HMSS 130(55.1)

6(40.0)

42(53.2)

26(50.0)

2(100.0)

7(43.8)

213(53.3)

Ed 60(52.2)

3(50.0)

7(31.8)

29(64.4)

1(100.0)

2(100.0)

102(53.4)

M & S 79(59.0)

7(43.8)

10(37.0)

8(44.4)

0(0)

3(75.0)

107(53.5)

None 79(52.0)

2(16.7)

30(40.0)

27(50.9)

2(50.0)

5(54.5)

146(47.6)

Overall 348(54.6)

18(36.7)

89(43.8)

90(53.6)

5(62.5)

118(54.5)

568(51.7)

3 HMSS 119(50.4)

3(20.0)

40(50.6)

24(46.2)

2(100.0)

7(43.8)

195(48.8)

Ed 61(53.0)

3(50.0)

6(27.3)

25(55.6)

0(0)

2(100.0)

97(50.8)

M & S 57(42.5)

7(43.8)

10(37.0)

8(44.4)

0(0)

3(75.0)

85(42.5)

None 72(47.4)

2(16.7)

26(34.7)

24(45.3)

2(50.0)

6(54.5)

132(43.0)

Page 12 of 24

Overall 309(48.5)

15(30.6)

82(40.4)

81(48.2)

4(50.0)

18(54.5)

509(46.4)

4 HMSS 107(45.3)

3(20.0)

37(46.8)

25(48.1)

2(100.0)

6(37.5)

180(45.0)

Ed 57(49.6)

3(50.0)

5(22.7)

23(51.1)

0(0)

2(100.0)

90(47.1)

M & S 56(41.8)

7(43.8)

10(37.0)

7(38.9)

0(0)

2(50.0)

82(41.0)

None 62(40.8)

2(16.7)

24(32.0)

23(43.4)

2(50.0)

4(36.4)

117(38.1)

Overall 282(44.3)

15(30.6)

76(37.4)

78(46.4)

4(50.0)

14(42.4)

469(42.7)

Figure 5

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20090

102030405060708090

100

1st Year Retention Rate by Admission Type, 1995 - 2009

RegularPACE

Axis Title

Page 13 of 24

Figure 6


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

4-Year Persistence Rates of PACE Students by School, 1988 - 2005

HMSSEducationMath & SciencesNoneAxis Title

Figure 7

Page 14 of 24


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

4-Year Persistence Rates of PACE Students by Ethnicity, 1988 - 2005

African AmericanAsianLatinoCaucasianOtherMissing

Axis Title

Among students admitted through the PACE program, students in HMSS departments maintained a persistence rate on par with other schools. However, persistence dipped from 67.5% through year 1 to 53.3% through year 2, then slipping to 48.8% through year 3, and 45.0% through year 4. These rates were higher than the rates of students in Math and Sciences, but lower than those in Education.

Table 14Percent Persistence Rate in HMSS – Regular vs. Pace, 1995 - 2005

African-American


Year 1 Regular 75.8 85.0 71.6 81.6 76.7 82.5 81.2PACE 68.2 53.3 69.6 67.3 100.0 56.3 67.5




General Education PlanIn 2008, the University enacted a new General Education plan. Comparing retention rates of students before this change and after this change, there appears to be a change in persistence rates for both African-Americans and PACE students. African-American students and students in the “Other” ethnic category witnessed notable decreases in persistence rate, as shown in Table 15. No other ethnic groups experienced this level of negative change.

Table 15

Page 15 of 24

HMSS Retention Rate by Ethnicity by Gen Ed, 1995 - 2009Pre 2008 Gen Ed 2008 & Later

African-American Retained 71.6 62.3Not Retained 28.4 37.7

Asian Retained 76.7 85.7Not Retained 23.3 14.3

Latino Retained 70.9 75.7Not Retained 29.1 24.3

Caucasian Retained 81.5 82.9Not Retained 18.5 17.1

Other Retained 68.8 53.8Not Retained 31.3 46.2

Missing Retained 81.1 81.1Not Retained 18.9 18.9

When considering admission types, regular-admission student persistence rates remained steady from the previous General Education plan (81.3%) to the new General Education (82.3%) plan. However, for PACE students, persistence fell from 66.9% to 53.3% under the new plan.1

SAT ScoreStudents with higher SAT scores were more likely to persist through four years of college (see Table 16). SAT scores of persisters increased with every year they were enrolled, whereas SAT scores on non-persisters were relatively flat. For example, composite SAT scores for persisters increased from 1065.28 in Year 1 to 1073.03 in Year 4 whereas composite scores for non-persisters rose only from 1027.85 to 1029.91. This indicates that students who performed better on their SAT scores in high school were more likely to persist than students who did not.

Table 16Average SAT Scores for Non-Persisters and Persisters, 1995 - 2005

Non-Persisters Persisters tYear 1 Math 513.14 534.91 -12.497***

Verbal 514.71 530.36 -9.514***Composite 1027.85 1065.28 -12.373***

Year 2 Math 515.12 537.50 -15.146***Verbal 516.15 532.22 -11.074***Composite 1031.26 1069.71 -14.991***



*** p = .000df = 13240Average Credit Hours during Year 1

1 Caution should be taken when interpreting this data, as the sample sizes for the previous General Education group (n = 5135) and the current General Education group (n = 810) are vastly different.

Page 16 of 24

Analysis of the data indicates that likelihood of persisting into year 2 was positively related average credit hours taken during year 1, t (13312) = 4.511, p = .000. Students who persisted took an average of 14.51 credit hours per semester whereas students who did not persist took an average of 14.38 credit hours per semester. Additionally, students who took a larger course load during their first semester (m = 15.02) were more likely to persist through their entire first year than students who took fewer credit hours (m = 14.64), t (18575) = 16.557, p = .000.

SummaryAs expected, the data revealed a steady decline in the numbers of persisters, with failure to persist most likely occurring during students’ first two years. Additionally, the decline for non-majority students (i.e., ethnic minorities and alternative admission) was greater than their majority counterparts. Persistence was also related to SAT score and average credits taken during year 1.

Graduation Rates at Millersville UniversityAccording ot the Condition of Education 2011 report published by the National Center for Education Statistics, 65% of Asian, 57% of Caucasian, 46% of Latino, and 39% of African American students who began their Bachelor’s degree at public, four-year institutions in 2002 graduated within six years. Comparatively, Millersville’s graduation rates were 51.7% for Asians, 65.7% for Caucasians, 39.5% for Latinos, and 38.3% for African Americans (Institutional Research, MU Fact Book, 2010-2011).

When limited to Master’s comprehensive institutions only (Millersville’s Carnegie Classification), the rates for the 2003 cohort graduating by 2009 were slightly different (see Table 17).

Table 17Comparison of Graduation Rates between Millersville University and Master’s Comprehensive

Institutions, 2003 – 2009Ethnicity Millersville National AverageAsian 61.1% 45.4%Caucasian 65.7% 45.7%Latino 25.6% 38.1%African-American 34.9% 34.9%Source: www.collegeresults.org

Millersville has a higher than average graduation rate for Asian and White students and an equivalent graduation rate for Black students. The graduation rate for Hispanic students at Millersville is well below the national average.

The following discussion provides the results of data analysis on both length to graduation as well as likelihood of graduation. Several factors are associated with both variables, including ethnicity, major, SAT score, and admission type.

Length to Graduation

Page 17 of 24

http://www.collegeresults.org/

Since 1995, the general trend in length to graduation has been decreasing, such that there was a significant difference that emerged in Cohort Year with regard to graduation length (F (10, 8542) = 8.817, p = .000). The average length to graduation was 399.6 (400 = 4 years, 300 = 3 years). However, since 2001, the average times to graduation has been less than 4 years (m2001 = 395.84, m2002 = 397.49, m2003 = 396.1, m2004 = 391.85, m2005 = 382.12). This trend was also evident within HMSS (F (10, 4133) = 3.493, p = .000. The average length to graduation was 400.22 for the cohorts admitted into the University between 1995 and 2005. All cohorts since 2001 graduated in less time than the average.

Ethnicity & SchoolStudents in HMSS took approximately four years to graduate with their Bachelor’s degree. Time to graduation for HMSS students was significantly longer than the time span for students in Education, but significantly shorter than the time span for students in Math and Sciences, F (3, 8533) = 4.047, p = .007 (see Table 18).

Table 18Length to Graduation x School x Ethnicity, 1988 - 2005

African-American


HMSS 443.87 430.74 445.10 396.03 380.00 393.62 400.22Education 433.29 404.61 431.43 390.36 397.14 378.61 393.07M & S 468.62 436.47 492.61 406.22 425.00 376.47 408.88Total 441.96 426.49 448.28 395.96 394.04 386.48 399.6

In general, Caucasians completed their undergraduate education more quickly than all other ethnic groups, with African American and Latino students taking the longest time to earn their degrees F (5, 8533) = 16.755, p = .000. There was no significant difference in the amount of time African Americans and Latinos took to graduate. Within HMSS, Caucasian students took just under 4 years on average to graduate. In contrast, African-Americans and Latinos took approximately a semester longer to graduate.

Admission TypeStudents admitted through an alternative program such as PACE took significantly longer (m = 463.96) than students admitted regularly (m = 396.37), t (8551) = 17.55, p = .000. In HMSS, PACE students (m = 462.98) took significantly longer to graduate than regular-admission students (m = 396.45), t (4142) = 12.836, p = .000.

SAT ScoreThere is a negative correlation between SAT score and time to graduate, r (8518) math x length = -.110, p<.000; r(8518) verbal x length = -.124, p <.000, r(8518) composite x length = -.136, p < .000). That is, students who performed better on their SAT exams were more likely to earn their undergraduate degree more quickly than students who did not perform well on their test. This is born out in the SAT score averages between graduates (M = 540.28, V = 534.93, C = 1075.21) and non-graduates (M = 514.00, V = 514.05, C = 1028.05) tmath (13240) = 18.777, p = .000; tverbal (13240) = 15.184, p = .000, tcomposite (13240) = 19.433, p = .000. Average Semester Credit Hours

Page 18 of 24

First, students who graduated took a slightly higher number of credits per semester throughout the college careers (m = 14.61) than students who did not graduate (m = 14.23), t (13312) = 14.54, p = .000. Second, students who graduated took more credit hours in their first semester (m = 15.05) than students who did not (m = 14.68), t (13312) = 16.224, p = .000.

Graduation RatesSlightly under two-thirds (64.2%) of admitted students between 1995 and 2005 earned their Bachelor’s degree (Table 19). Students who declared a major within Education had the highest graduation rate (m = 74.6%), followed by Math and Sciences (m = 64.9%), HMSS (m = 62.2%), and then undeclared (m = 57.9%). Figure 7 illustrates graduation rates of HMSS departments.

Table 19First Department Graduation Rates, 1995 – 2005

School Department Did Not Graduate Graduated TotalHMSS ART 171 (34.7) 322 (65.3) 493

BUAD 553 (42.7) 742 (57.3) 1295COMM 167 (31.8) 358 (68.2) 525ECON 10 (52.6) 9 (47.4) 19ENGL 161 (37.2) 272 (62.8) 433FORL 89 (32.5) 185 (67.5) 274GEOG 7 (35.0) 13 (65.0) 20GOVT 79 (37.6) 131 (62.4) 210HIST 108 (32.5) 224 (67.5) 332MUSI 97 (35.1) 179 (64.9) 276PHIL 4 (50) 4 (50) 8SOAN 106 (49.3) 109 (50.7) 215SOWK 50 (37.3) 84 (62.7) 134Total 1602 (37.8) 2632 (62.2) 4234

Education ELED 231 (17.9) 1057 (82.1) 1288ITEC 163 (30.8) 366 (69.2) 529PSYC 210 (38.2) 340 (61.8) 550SPED 94 (24.9) 283 (75.1) 377Total 698 (25.4) 2046 (74.6) 2744

Math & Sciences

BIOL 407 (37.2) 686 (62.8) 1093CHEM 56 (27.9) 145 (72.1) 201CSCI 262 (41.3) 372 (58.7) 634ESCI 127 (29.8) 299 (70.2) 426MATH 132 (28.9) 324 (71.1) 456PHYS 53 (37.6) 88 (62.4) 141Total 1037 (35.1) 1914 (64.9) 2951

Other INTL 4 (36.4) 7 (63.6) 11NONE 1420 (42.1) 1954 (57.9) 3374Total 1424 (42.1) 1961 (57.9) 3385

University Total 4761 (35.8) 8553 (64.2) 13314Numbers in parentheses are percent of row.

Figure 7

Page 19 of 24

ARTBUAD

COMMEC

ONEN

GLFO

RLGEO

GGOVT

HISTMUSI

PHILSO

ANSO

WK0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Graduation Likelihood for First Declared Majors within HMSS, 1995 -

2005

GraduatedDid Not Graduate

Although the average graduation rate within HMSS was 62.22%, the data indicate that graduation rates have not exceeded 60% since 2003, as illustrated in Table 20 and Figure 8.

Table 20Graduation Rate x First Cohort in HMSS and University-Wide, 1995 - 2005

HMSS UniversityCohort Did Not

GraduateGraduated Total Did Not

GraduateGraduated Total

1995 140 (36.1) 248 (63.9) 388 378 (32.7) 778 (67.3) 11561996 116 (40.6) 170 (59.4) 286 354 (36.2) 623 (63.8) 9771997 110 (32.6) 227 (67.4) 337 337 (31.5) 732 (68.5) 10691998 142 (40.6) 208 (59.4) 350 412 (37.2) 696 (62.8) 11081999 147 (38.4) 236 (61.6) 383 435 (35.2) 801 (64.8) 121362000 129 (33.3) 258 (66.7) 387 436 (34.5) 826 (65.5) 12622001 126 (32.0) 268 (68.0) 394 386 (31.2) 852 (68.8) 12382002 139 (34.2) 267 (65.8) 406 464 (36.8) 798 (63.2) 12622003 169 (41.1) 242 (58.9) 411 504 (38.0) 821 (62.0) 13252004 201 (41.0) 289 (59) 490 539 (38.9) 845 (61.1) 13842005 187 (45.3) 226 (54.7) 413 516 (39.8) 781 (60.2) 1297Total 1604 (37.8) 2639 (62.2) 4243 4761 (35.8) 8553 (64.2) 13314

Numbers in parentheses are percent of row.

Figure 8

Page 20 of 24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Graduation Trends in HMSS, 1995 - 2005

GraduatedDid Not Graduate

Students who declared majors within a school when they first entered the University were very likely to graduate within the same school (see Table 21). 91% of freshmen in Education, 92.7% of freshmen in HMSS, and 67.8% of freshmen within Math & Sciences graduate within the same school. 8% of freshmen who began in Education and 21.1% of freshmen who began in Math & Sciences graduated within HMSS. Of exploratory freshmen, over half (56%) graduated from HMSS. Overall, of graduates from HMSS, 58.9% started within the School, 10.7% began in Math and Sciences, 4% began in Education, and 26.4% began with no major.

Table 21Rates of Remaining in the Same School from Entrance to Graduation, 1995 – 2005

School at GraduationEducation HMSS M & S Total

School at Entrance

ED 1861 (91.0) 164 (8.0) 21 (1.0) 2046HMSS 155 (5.9) 2445 (92.7) 39 (1.5) 2639M & S 172 (9.0) 445 (23.3) 1297 (67.8) 1914None 695 (35.6) 1095 (56.0) 164 (8.4) 1954Total 2883 (33.7) 4149 (48.6) 1521 (17.8) 8553

Graduate Demographics by SchoolAcross all Schools and within HMSS, Caucasians had the highest graduation percentage of all groups (see Table 22). African-Americans and Latinos had the lowest graduation percentages of all groups.

However, examination of the demographics of all graduates reveals a slightly different picture. Ethnic minority students were more likely to graduate from HMSS than from the other two Schools. Of the 465 African-American students who graduated, 284 (61.1%) graduated from

Page 21 of 24

HMSS; of the 163 Latino students who graduated, 98 (60.1%) graduated from HMSS. These trends were evident in each Schools’ respective graduate demographics (see Table 23).

Table 22Graduation Rates for Ethnic Groups in First Schools, 1995 – 2005

African-American

Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing

HMSS Graduated 179(44.6)

36 (48.0)

62 (40.5)

2261 (65.7)

20 (62.5)

81(57.0)

No Graduation 222(55.4)

39 (52.0)

91 (59.5)

1181 (34.3)

12 (37.5)

61(43.0)

ED Graduated 100(51.3)

17 (56.7)

24 (47.1)

1845 (77.3)

7 (58.3)

53(77.9)


13 (43.3)

27 (52.9)

543(22.7)

5 (41.7)

15(22.1)

M & S Graduated 94(40.1)

39 (59.1)

33 (45.2)

1687 (68.3)

13 (48.1)

49(58.3)


27 (40.9)

40 (54.8)

782(31.7)

14 (51.9)

35(41.7)

None Graduated 93(37.2)

22 (46.8)

44 (37.0)

1738 (61.4)

7 (28.0)

50(48.5)


25 (53.2)

75 (63.0)

1092 (38.6)

18 (72.0)

53(51.5)

Overall Graduated 465(43.2)

114(52.3)

163(41.2)

7531(67.7)

47(49.0)

233(64.2)


104(47.7)

233(58.8)

3598(32.3)

49(51.0)

164(35.8)

Table 23Demographics of Graduates for Cohorts, 1995 – 2005

African-American


HMSS 284(6.9)

54(1.3)

98(2.3)

3558(85.8)

28(.7)

127(3.1)

4149

ED 152(5.3)

26(.9)

42(1.5)

2584(89.6)

7(.2)

72(2.5)

2883

M & S 29(1.9)

34(2.2)

23(1.5)

1389(91.3)

12(.8)

34(2.2)

1521

Total 465(5.4)

114(1.3)

163(1.9)

7531(88.1)

47(.5)

233(2.7)

8553

Numbers in parentheses are percent of row.

When examining these percentages in light of the Schools’ entry demographics, graduation rates of ethnic groups were fairly similar across all Schools (see Table 24). Caucasians comprised a greater percentage of all Schools’ graduating populations than their entry populations. The percentage of African Americans and Latinos fell from entry to graduation for all Schools.

Table 24

Page 22 of 24

Comparison of Entrance and Graduation Demographics by School, 1995 - 2005African-American


HMSS Entrance 401(9.4)

75 (1.8)

153 (3.6)

3442 (81.1)

32(.8)

142 (3.3)

4245

Graduation 284(6.9)

54(1.3)

98(2.3)

3558(85.8)

28(.7)

127(3.1)

4149

ED Entrance 195(7.1)

30 (1.1)

51 (1.9)

2388 (87.0)

12(.4)

68(2.5)

2744

Graduation 152(5.3)

26(.9)

42(1.5)

2584(89.6)

7(.2)

72(2.5)

2883

M & S Entrance 232(7.9)

66 (2.2)

73 (2.5)

2469 (83.7)

27(.9)

84(2.8)

2951

Graduation 29(1.9)

34(2.2)

23(1.5)

1389(91.3)

12(.8)

34(2.2)

1521

Total Entrance 1078(8.1)

218 (1.6)

396 (3.0)

11129 (83.6)

96(.7)

397 (3.0)

13314

Graduation 465(5.4)

114(1.3)

163(1.9)

7531(88.1)

47(.5)

233(2.7)

8553

Numbers in parentheses are percentages of rows.

SummaryThere are a number of trends to be noted in the data. Using Tinto’s (1980) theory of student retention as a guide, we can break these trends down into pre-entry attributes and academic integration as measured by scholarly performance.

Pre-Entry Attributes1) HMSS students’ average SAT scores trail those of their peers in the other two schools.

2) HMSS students’ average class rank trails those of their peers in the other two schools.

3) The largest percentage of students admitted through an alternative program such as PACE, AIM for Success, and the Millersville Scholars Program choose a major within HMSS.

4) The ethnic diversity of HMSS is greater than that of Education and Math and Sciences.

5) There is a relationship between SAT score and ethnicity and admission type. The lower SAT scores and lower class rank appears to be associated with the more diverse demographic make-up of HMSS. Both Education and Math and Sciences appear to attract those students who may be better prepared academically for college.

Academic Integration1) Latino and African-American students’ GPA trailed that of their Caucasian peers. In the first semester, in particular, GPA of minority students was at or below a “C.” After 4 semesters, GPA for Latino and African-American students had climbed to a C / B average.

2) PACE students’ GPA lagged those of regular admission students.

Page 23 of 24

3) The helpfulness of preparatory PACE programs appears questionable, as is evident in the low “preparatory” course GPA and the lower relative GPA in “regular,” equivalent courses.

4) Majority students were more likely to take a full course load (15 credits) than minority students.

5) Minority students were more likely to complete a summer course than majority students.

6) Minority students and PACE students were more likely to fail a course, withdraw from a course, or earn a Z score than majority students.

Persistence and Graduation1) Persisters and graduates tend to have higher SAT scores than non-persisters and non-graduates.

2) Persisters and graduates tend to complete more credits per semester than non-persisters and non-graduates.

3) Graduation rates within HMSS have hovered just above 60% except for the period between 2003 and 2006.

4) A relative greater proportion of the graduating classes of HMSS is comprised of minority students than both Education and Math and Sciences.

Page 24 of 24

Documents

Millersville University of Pennsylvania · Web viewOf all PACE students, 35.81% enrolled in an HMSS department, whereas less than half that number (15.31% in Education and 17.12%