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CCAASSEE SSTTUUDDYY –– UUGGAANNDDAA,, KKAARRAAMMOOJJAA:: TTHHEE FFOORRGGOOTTTTEENN RREEGGIIOONN?? 11

Uganda at a glance

Introduction to the Karamoja region a) Historical neglect b) Understanding the environmental context c) From traditional cattle-raiding to “cattle war”

The Dynamic of environment, security, and conflict in Karamoja Figure 4: Dynamic of environment, security, and conflict in Karamoja

Karamoja’s vicious cycle a) Political instability b) Social fragmentation c) Weakening of economic activity d) Inappropriate responses e) Migration

Conclusion and the way ahead

Annexes Thematic Bibliography

1 Extracted from an internship report prepared for Sciences Po Lille, France, following a placement with the Energy and Environment Practice Team at the UNDP Bratislava Regional Centre (BRC) for Europe and the CIS, as part of a Masters programme in International Relations: Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding (2007/2008).

ENVIRONMENT, SECURITY, AND CONFLICT Exploring the linkage with a close up of Uganda’s region of

Karamoja

IIVV)) CCAASSEE SSTTUUDDYY -- UUGGAANNDDAA,, KKAARRAAMMOOJJAA:: TTHHEE FFOORRGGOOTTTTEENN RREEGGIIOONN??

UUggaannddaa aatt aa ggllaannccee 11

Source: Adapted from “ CIA The World Factbook” (2008) and “BBC Country Profile: Uganda”. Innttrroodduuccttiioonn ttoo tthhee KKaarraammoojjaa rreeggiioonn Today, the region is plagued by insecurity: under humanitarian watch, in the probability of future climate change driven environmental stress, and not immune from the risk of further conflict. A 2008 OXFAM report identified the following primary hazards: “Drought, conflict, ethnic violence, and cattle rustling. Seven droughts between 1991 and 2000 have increased food insecurity, and prompted animal losses. Increased conflict over water. Tick-borne diseases increase, tsetse belt expansion, dust storms increase, and increase of chest and eye infections”. 22 Another study equally concluded, “Life in Karamoja…. is defined by periodic and extended droughts, sporadic and often brutal violence, cyclical cattle raiding, and chronic food insecurity”.3

This case has to be firstly situated within the broader context it inhibits. Uganda is at the heart of a troubled region, at crossroads of Sudan, Kenya and the DR Congo. Moreover, it has had its share of internal security problems. It is only recently, in August of 2006, that a truce between the Government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels was signed aimed at ending the nineteen year old civil conflict in the northern part of the country.

1 See Annex 3 for more detailed background information and map of Uganda. 2 Magrath, John (2008). “Turning Up the Heat: Climate change and poverty in Uganda”. OXFAM GB. 3 Statement by the Feinstein International Centre at Tufs University study in December of 2007. From “ Uganda: Food concerns grow in Karamoja” IRIN. 14 May 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=78204>

Full name: Republic of Uganda Independence: 9 October 1962 (from UK) Politics: Multi-party politics restored in 2005 Leadership: President Yoweri Museveni (1986, 2001, 2006)

NRM Population: 30.9 million (UN, 2007) Capital: Kampala Area: 241,038 sq km (93,072 sq miles)

Major languages: English (official), Swahili (official), Luganda, various Bantu languages

Major religions: Christianity, Islam Ethnic groups: Baganda 16.9%, Banyakole 9.5%, Basoga 8.4%,

Bakiga 6.9%, Iteso 6.4%, Langi 6.1%, Acholi 4.7%, Bagisu 4.6%, Lugbara 4.2%, Bunyoro 2.7%, other 29.6% (2002 census)

Life expectancy: 51 years (men), 52 years (women) (UN) HDI rank: 154 (out of 177) (HDR 2007/08) Main exports: Coffee, fish and fish products, tea; tobacco, cotton,

corn, beans, sesame GDP real growth rate: 6.5% (2007 est.) GNI per capita: US $280 (World Bank, 2006)

The capital, Kampala, is boosting with economic life; the country experiencing a 6.5% GDP growth rate (2007 est.). Despite these seemingly positive developments, Uganda remains one of the poorest countries of the world, and its most isolated and under developed region is precisely that of Karamoja. This purpose of this briefing will be to illustrate how the current state of vulnerability in Karamoja has resulted from a number of interrelated factors, as a function of the environment and conflict. Rather than an in depth analysis of the weight of one versus the other, the focus will be on the interplay of both aspects (in conjunction with other relevant factors). The prevalence of armed violence in Karamoja has to be put in perspective together with the region’s historical neglect, environmental context (including the impacts of climate change), cattle-raiding culture, and proliferation of arms. aa)) HHiissttoorriiccaall nneegglleecctt Historically, Karamoja’s region has been neglected, resulting in a governance vacuum, security void, and development lag. The British colonisers treated the Karamojong harshly and independence did not seem to bring much change for the better. The first Prime Minister of Uganda, Milton Obote, stated, “Uganda cannot wait for Karamoja to develop”… and indeed it has not.4 The region has been removed from national development trends and the lack of social services and state-funded or supported infrastructure (schools, clinics, roads, police posts, courts) has resulted in a weak social contract between the Karamojong pop-ulace and the state.5 Moreover, with the lack of protection provided by the state and the lack of an ad-equate law enforcement presence in the region, civilians proceeded to arm themselves for both defensive and opportunistic purposes.

Today, the area and its people are stigmatized as ‘backwards’ by the rest of Uganda.6 In fact, the region is the poorest in the country as defined by key human development indicators; with the highest maternal and infant mortality rates, and the lowest life expectancy.7 It receives significantly less humanitarian assistance than the war-affected central north even though interest and attention from international

4 Närman, Anders (2003). “Karamoja: Is Peace Possible?” Review of African Political Economy, 30 (95), Africa, Imperialism & New Forms of Accumulation, (Mar., 2003), pp. 129-133. Accessed through JSTOR. 5 This can be illustrated in part by the extremely low rate of voter turnout. See Tonny Oyana, A Preliminary Report on Uganda’s 2006 Elections, Southern Illinois University, accessed at <http://www.geog.siu.edu/people/oyana/Examples/GIS_Analysis_Visualization_Uganda’s_2006_Election.pdf > 6 Interview in Keulig Steffen and Sacha Kagan and ACTED (2008) “Land of Thorns: struggling for survival in Karamoja”. Documentary film, Karamoja awareness raising campaign across Europe. 49 min. 7 UN figure published in 2007 show Karamoja with the highest maternal and infant mortality in the country (750/100,000 live births and 178/1,000 live births respectively), the lowest primary school enrolment (35%) and the lowest life expectancy (in 2002 at 39.7 years for men and 44.9 for women). From Stites, Elizabeth and Darlington Akabwai, Dyan Mazurana, Priscillar Ateyo (2007) “Angering Akuju: Survival and Suffering in Karamoja” A Report on Livelihoods and Human Security in the Karamoja Region of Uganda. Feinstein International Center.

The people of Karamoja • Home to about 1.1 million people. • Almost all of the Karamoja population is still rural, with

about 90% living from subsistence agriculture and/or live-stock production.

• Besides the 3 "Karimojong" tribes of Pian, Bokora and Matheniko, the "Karamojans" are also constituted of the mountain tribes of Ik, Kadam and Tepeth, each with their own specific history and identity.

donors is gradually increasing.8 Karamoja is to a large extent dependent on foreign food aid and has been classified as a ‘chronically food deficient’ area. As of today, 560,000 people (almost 60% of the population) depend on food distribution by the World Food Program (WFP).

bb)) UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg tthhee eennvviirroonnmmeennttaall ccoonntteexxtt Karamoja is known as “one of the most inhospitable ecozones in Africa”.9 The region is composed of semi-arid thorn savannah that varies seasonally between scrub grassland and desert. Rainfall is generally unpredictable and localized, and the timing of rainy and dry seasons often does not correspond with crop requirements, making agriculture (crops of sorghum, millet, sunflowers, and maize) an unreliable subsistence strategy.10 TThhee iimmppaaccttss ooff cclliimmaattee cchhaannggee 1111 Karamoja, like other arid areas of Africa, is set to experience severe climate change, namely an elevation of average temperatures, more frequent periods of drought, increased rain variability and disease outbreaks- aggravating an already precarious food security situation. Since 1974, the Karamoja region (and Uganda as a whole) has seen a 0.2 to 1.0 centigrade increase in surface temperatures.12 (See Annex 3 for graph of increased drought occurrences in Uganda). In a January to April situation report, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), stated: “Whereas in the 1980s and early 1990s, the severe drought cycle was every 10 years, at present droughts are coming every two to three years, while 2006 and 2007 saw back-to-back years of extended dry spells”.13 Over and over again, people interviewed for the report described how springs and streams that used to flow constantly all year round are now drying up. However, the seasons are not actually shortening; rather they are becoming more unreliable. Rains may come early then stop for long periods, or they may come when it is supposed to be dry. In any event, the essential effect remains: a shortened growing season for crops.14 In the second half of 2007, for example, food availability was affected by unusually heavy rains, which damaged crops. A Karamojong woman accordingly affirmed: “…because of the current weather changes the yields have completely gone down. All this is a result of long spells of sunshine – the sun is prolonged until the end of September - and whenever it rains it rains so heavily it destroys all our crops in the fields. You can plant a whole acre or two and come out with nothing”.15 Climate change is also affecting the health of both people and animals in Karamoja. In the dry season, and especially in arid and semi-arid areas, drought brings skin diseases and ringworm, and the dust ruins eyes. Ill health, in turn, is the most immediate reason people cite for falling into poverty.16 Moreover, outbreaks of crop diseases have formerly decimated sorghum and millet harvests.17 Animals equally suffer when pastures are either inundated or struck by drought. 8 For example, the 2007 United Nations Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP) for Uganda includes “improving protection, ac-cess to services and emergency preparedness and response in Karamoja” as a key area. Ibid. 9 Gray, Sandra J. (2000). “A memory of loss: Ecological politics, local history, and the evolution of Karimojong violence”. Human Organization, 59, 401-419. 10 Stites et al. (2007). 11 Quote by Florence Madamu of the Bulierhe village in Bundibugyo, Karamoja. From Magrath, John (2008). 12 Ibid. 13“ Uganda: Food concerns grow in Karamoja” IRIN. 14 May 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=78204> 14 Magrath, John (2008). 15 Quote by Florence Madamu of the Bulierhe village in Bundibugyo, Karamoja. From Magrath, John (2008). 16 Ibid. 17 According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the 2006 harvest in Karamoja region, experienced a severe attack of honeydew disease that crippled the staple sorghum crop, and falling livestock prices. From “Uganda:

"We have stopped even adopting seasonal planting because it's so useless. Now we just try all the time. We used to plant in March and that'd be it. Now we plant and plant again. We waste a lot of seeds that way, and our time and energy…Sometimes you feel like crying".

PPaassttoorraalliissmm To facilitate survival in this unpredictable habitat, the Karamojans have adopted a pastoral lifestyle i.e.: moving with the herds according to seasonal variability. Although often misunderstood, mobile pastoralism actually provides a highly efficient way of managing the sparse vegetation and relatively low fertility of dry land soils, such as is in the Karamojan region. Findings even indicate that groups that are able to retain their pastoral livelihoods (in opposition to forced sedentarization) are, in general, pursuing the most sustainable livelihoods and have the highest levels of human security.18 (See Annex 2 for map of pastoralist communities in Africa).

Source: Magrath, John (2008) “Turning Up the Heat: Climate change and poverty in Uganda». OXFAM GB. aa)) FFrroomm ttrraaddiittiioonnaall ccaattttllee--rraaiiddiinngg ttoo ““ccaattttllee wwaarr”” Cattle, along with the ability to move with, have taken on extreme significance to the peoples of Karamoja; not only to satisfy virtually all daily needs (food, shelter, and clothing), but also playing a traditional role in the ratification of marriage and the determination of status in the community.

‘Survival of the fittest’ as food crisis bites Karamoja region” IRIN. 20 March 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=77378> 18 Stites et al (2007).

“Cattle-raiding” has been a long-standing practice and important element of Karamojan pastoralist culture. Raiding, a cyclical and reciprocal means to replenish the herd and survive in times of hardship, accordingly peaking during times of environmental stress, was seen as a “quasi-legitimate sharing of resources, permitting groups on the verge of economic ruin and even starvation to re-establish their systems of food production and natural resources management”.19 Traditionally, a series of elaborate rules dictated behaviour before, during, and after the raids, which were carried out with spears and hand in hand combat. Particularly, the community targeted would be sent messages to warn them of the coming attack while loss of human life was kept to a minimum.20

““CCaattttllee wwaarr”” The proliferation of modern automatic weapons brought about a new form of pastoral violence, ultimately changing the character, scope and consequences of cattle-raiding across Karamojong tribes. The introduction of semi-automatic weapons (AK-47s) is attributed to the fall of Idi Amin’s dictatorship, in 1979. Deserting soldiers abandoned stockpiles of weapons which were then stolen by the Karamojong. Moreover, conflicts in neighbouring Sudan and Somalia created greater availability of guns.21 An arms race ensued, together with on-going competition between tribes to protect respective cattle or rustle its neighbours. Subsequently, traditional cattle raiding transformed into distinct forms of armed violence, amongst which the following could (and still can) be depicted.22

• Augmenting and compensatory raiding – raids undertaken to increase stocks and compensate theft. • Death and injury – increased mortality rate. • Commercialized raiding – theft undertaken with the intention of selling livestock for immediate

profit. • Banditry and predation – smaller scale theft of cattle and of small livestock soared. CCoonnfflliicctt ssttaattiissttiiccss Over the years, quantifiable numbers in damage have built up, along with tension and mutual distrust that had not previously existed among tribes. A 1999 study conducted amongst a sample of women of the Bokora and Matheniko sub tribes affirmed that “virtually every one had lost either a husband or at least one male child to intra-tribal violence”.23 Today, almost ten years later, violent raids are continuing. Recent research shows that as many as 25 per cent of households surveyed suffered the death or injury of a family member in the previous 6 months (prior to the study).24 The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism’s (CEWARN) monitoring for the Karamoja cluster, reported the following specifics for Uganda for the period of July 2003 to April 2008:25 19 Jabs, Lorelle (2007). “Where Two Elephants Meet, the Grass Suffers: A Case Study of Intractable Conflict in Karamoja, Uganda” American Behavioral Scientist, 50 (11), 1498-1519. 20 Stites et al. (2007) 21 Doherty, Max (2007). “Karamoja, Uganda’s Cattle War”. International Affairs Forum. Part Two: <http://www.youtube.com/v/z0rIlpzz_rQ&hl> 22 Adapted from “typology of violence in pastoral communities” from Bevan, James (2007). “Between a rock and a hard place: Armed Violence in African Pastoral Communities” UNDP Conference Background Paper. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. 23 Sample of women = 300. In addition, the direct and indirect affects of raids were estimated to account for more than 70% of deaths of males, aged 30 to 39, in these sub tribes. Gray (2000). 24 Bevan, James (2007). 25 Also see Annex 3 for map of Karamoja Cluster. CEWARN- Conflict and Early Warning Response Mechanism of IGAD: Karamoja Cluster Update: <http://www.cewarn.org/index_files/Page404.htm>

Violent Incidents Human Deaths Net Livestock Raided 1, 563 2, 728 103, 157

Source: CEWARN <http://www.cewarn.org > Accessed 14 August 2008.

It is not to say that the government of Uganda has been without reaction. Two disarmament attempts were conducted: the first “voluntary” campaign in 2000 and the second “forceful” campaign in 2006. However, critics argue the failure of these disarmament campaigns and the resulting increase in distrust between the Karamjong populace and the government. In fact, CEWARN identified the period from September through to December 2006 (the commencement of the last disarmament campaign) as the period with the highest statistics of human deaths and violent incidents since the beginning of its monitoring in Uganda.26 Particularly, the government’s ongoing “cordon and search missions” have brought about much critique for excessive use of force, human rights violations and army orchestrated cattle theft.27 Moreover, it has left many communities feeling vulnerable as they are disarmed in opposition to neighbouring others who are still armed.28 Anthropologist Sandra Gray goes so far as to refer to the situation in Karamoja as an “intractable conflict”, one that endures over long periods of time and resists the most persistent attempts at resolution.29 Terminology aside, armed violence is a daily threat to Karamojongs’ security, remaining to date an “open” conflict.

26Specifically, it reported: 529 deaths and 11 028 livestock lost, in a total of 132 violent incidents. Period September- December 2006 (only fully accessible report). See CEWARN Uganda Country Update: http://www.cewarn.org/gendoc/cntryupdt.htm . 27 Doherty, Max (2007). 28 Following the 1st disarmament campaign, government estimated in 2003, that there were still 30 - 40,000 AK47 guns in Karamoja- more guns than actually held by the national army in the region. See Närman, Anders (2003). “Karamoja: Is Peace Possible?” Review of African Political Economy, 30 (95), Africa, Imperialism & New Forms of Accumulation, (Mar., 2003), pp. 129-133. Accessed through JSTOR. 29 Gray (2000).

“The success of recent demilitarization is only temporary [...] less violent raids are only a break in an otherwise endless conflict”.

(Karamoja, Uganda’s Cattle war, Part II)

PPoolliittiiccaall

IInnssttaabbiilliittyy

Environmental Stress

SSoocciiaall

FFrraaggmmeennttaattiioonn

IInnaapppprroopprriiaattee

RReessppoonnsseess

MMiiggrraattiioonn

WWeeaakkeenniinngg ooff

EEccoonnoommiicc AAccttiivviittyy

Vulnerability

Insecurity

Threatened Livelihoods

Increased resource scarcity

Poverty

Vulnerability

Insecurity

Threatened Livelihoods

Increased resource scarcity

Poverty

CClliimmaattee

CChhaannggee

Soil Degration Rising Temperatures

CCoonnfflliicctt

Theft

Arms acquisition

Cattle War

Human Death/ Injury

Disease Outbreak Floods Deforestation

Commercialized Raiding

Drought Crop Failures

Figure 4. Dynamic of environment, security and conflict in Karamoja

Source: Inspired by Buhaug H et al. (2008) “Fig. 5. Possible Pathways to conflict”

TThhee DDyynnaammiicc ooff EEnnvviirroonnmmeenntt,, SSeeccuurriittyy,, aanndd CCoonnfflliicctt iinn KKaarraammoojjaa In order to fully understand the present crisis in the region as well as the preoccupying prospects for the near future, a more detailed account of this dynamic is to follow, covering elements of: Political Instability, Social Fragmentation, Weakening of Economic Activity, Inappropriate Responses, and Migration. Together they form a vicious circle of insecurity and unsustainable livelihoods. (See Fig.4)

KKaarraammoojjaa’’ss vviicciioouuss cciirrccllee:: aa)) PPoolliittiiccaall iinnssttaabbiilliittyy The pattern of violent conflict weakens already bad governance, while climate change puts on additional strain.

Coupled with the lack of law and order and an insufficient judicial system in the region, the resulting culture of impunity allows raiders and criminals to engage in violent livelihood strategies without fear of official reprisal or prosecution. CEWARN’s previously mentioned report on Karamoja’s state of affairs highlighted the increase in the level of violence as partly attributed to the “lack of trust by the local community that the government can provide adequate security for them and their livestock if disarmed”.30 The failure of the state of Uganda to provide adequate governance and security for the populations of Karamoja is an important factor in the region’s violence. Climate change exacerbates social tensions as livelihood insecurity mounts. CEWARN stated environment induced aggravating factors of conflict: “Effects of weather continue to wreck havoc in the livelihood of the people. Scarcity of food crops necessitates increased reliance on livestock products. The result is an increase in cattle raids as individuals seek to increase their herds”.31 One interviewee stated “The situation is bad; the populations in the affected areas have adopted the theory of ‘survival of the fittest’ as the able-bodied take advantage of their physical strength to deprive others of access to food”.32 bb)) SSoocciiaall ffrraaggmmeennttaattiioonn Social effects can be expected on a regional and national scale.

Years of violent raids have undermined trust between the Karamojong tribes and as climate change increases resource scarcity in the region, inter-tribal tensions risk augmenting. Moreover, some communities are becoming more marginalized even within Karamoja. For example the Ik, whose population number is estimated to be 5,000 – has not only shrunk in community size, but most of its cattle have been stolen by the neighbouring Kenyan Turkana community. They have consequently had to abandon their traditional cattle-keeping ways and turn to agriculture. However, their lack of agricultural experience, combined with the floods of 2007 and followed by this year's drought, means that most people currently lack enough food to feed their families.33

On a larger scale, the precarious conditions in Karamoja serve to marginalize the region and its people even further from the rest of Uganda. 30 Period September- December 2006 (only fully accessible report). See CEWARN Uganda Country Update: http://www.cewarn.org/gendoc/cntryupdt.htm . 31 Ibid. 32 “Uganda: ‘Survival of the fittest’ as food crisis bites Karamoja region” IRIN. 20 March 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=77378> 33 “Ngeleca Maddalina – ‘I don't remember the last time there was meat to eat’” IRIN. 25 May 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/HOVReport.aspx?ReportId=78438>

cc)) WWeeaakkeenniinngg ooff eeccoonnoommiicc aaccttiivviittyy Both conflict and climate changes are negatively affecting the economic activity of an already underdeveloped region.

The loss of animals resulting from violent raids or theft undermines Karamojongs’ livelihoods. First, families depend on milk from the animals as a significant source of nutrition; a shortage of animals results in less milk for the children and others. Second, general insecurity resulting from ongoing raids and violence interferes with cultivation of the land, a task done primarily by women. Because of external conflict, the women stay close to their manyatta (community dwelling) and work with the small amount of land available there. Fertile land farther away from home lies fallow, reducing the food supplies for families.34 As nearly all agricultural production in Karamoja is rain-fed, increased droughts are likely to detrimentally affect agricultural production. Similarly, if the average global temperatures rises by two degrees or more, predictions state that Uganda (Africa’s second biggest coffee producer) is likely to cease to be suitable for coffee, which may happen in “40 years or perhaps as little as 30”.35 dd)) IInnaapppprroopprriiaattee rreessppoonnsseess Faced with conflict and climate change, people have adopted “inappropriate” responses- leading to undermined pastoralism, over cropping, and deforestation.

What may be one of the most appropriate and a positive form of livelihood in the face of climate change is being undermined as the movement of pastoralists becomes increasingly restricted. For instance, the scarcities of water and droughts in the region have caused Karamojong cattle herders to move over longer distances and further into the neighbouring districts of Teso and Acholi. As this increased the potential for conflict and in a bid to contain tensions, the government deployed a large number of army personnel and clamped down on the free movement of pastoralists to and from Karamoja. However, this restricted movement has led to a severe loss of livestock and consequent hardship; in the month of March 2008 over 100 head of cattle were reported dying daily by the District Veterinary Officer in Kotido.36

Increased insecurity and violent conflict have worsened Karamoja’s ecological crises. Shifts in livelihood strategies, such as “sedentarization” (the policy of settling pastoralists, sometimes forcibly), usually also entail a move towards greater exploitation of natural resources (ex: overgrazing of available land and soil erosion).37 Moreover, although the Karimojong build their houses (tukuls) from timber, the population increase and the lack of corresponding tree programmes has led to an alarming reduction in vegetation cover of the area.38 The region of Karamoja is thus one of the most deforested of Uganda. The government has to date failed to develop pro-pastoral policies that support the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods of people in the region.39

34 Jabs, Lorelle (2007). 35 “Climate change bleaks Uganda coffee harvest”. Afrol News.18 July 2008. Available at: <http://www.afrol.com/articles/29879> Estimates taken from Magrath, John (2008) “Turning Up the Heat: Climate change and poverty in Uganda». OXFAM GB. 36 Magrath, John (2008). 37 Ibid. 38 Ibid. 39 “ Uganda: Food concerns grow in Karamoja” IRIN. 14 May 2008. Available at: <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=78204>

ee)) MMiiggrraattiioonn:: Insecurity problems have also caused serious displacement and humanitarian challenges.

The presence of weapons and reoccurrences of violence have caused many women and children to flee to major Uganda towns (Kampala, Mbale, Jinja, Soroti) in search of a better life. Instead they end up worst: in slums, on the outskirts of cities, and in danger of rape.40 Remarkably, 80% of street children in Kampala are from Karamoja. Most are from one specific ethnic group, the Bakora, who have especially suffered a series of blows over the last years, losing their cattle in conflict over dwindling resources.41 Drought is often only the last straw for those who have already lost their assets. A number of resettlement camps have been set up for the migrating Karamojong (mainly inhabited by widows). However, these camps do not seem to improve the livelihoods of the people who are sometimes forcefully settled there. They tend to be located in particularly dry lands and far away from towns, water access or other services. These camps only replicate problems of insecurity and hunger, and accordingly contribute to the vicious cycle through further marginalization and environmental degradation.42 CCOONNCCLLUUSSIIOONN AANNDD TTHHEE WWAAYY AAHHEEAADD The gloom of climate change makes environment a security issue indeed- a human centred one. The societies hardest hit by environmental change are time and again those in already precarious conditions; the poor, underdeveloped and unstable states immersed in ecologically fragile environments i.e.: the majority of Africa. The failure to help vulnerable communities cope with the added climate change driven pressures to their livelihoods, only intensifies their existing grievances. While conflicts such as in Darfur show how the right balance of politics and ecology is difficult, “…it also holds a grim lesson for other countries at risk”.43 The degree of vulnerability and instability in Karamoja has resulted from a number of interrelated factors, as a function of the environment and conflict. To date, the region remains embedded in a vicious cycle of insecurity and unsustainable livelihoods, with no solution likely to emerge without adequate response to the entirety of its dimensions. Addressing these interlinked aspects of environmental degradation, livelihood stress and violence will require pro-pastoral government policies, economic development programs, as well as peace-building measures - taking into account the numerous challenges facing the Karamojong, including the repercussions of climate change.

40 Keulig Steffen and Sacha Kagan and ACTED (2008). 41 Magrath, John (2008). 42 Keulig Steffen and Sacha Kagan and ACTED (2008). 43 United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) (2007) Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment. Nairobi, Kenya: June 2007. Available at: <http://www.unep.org/sudan/>.

AAnnnneexx 11 : The « double headed risk » for developing countries Global exposure to climate change: Countries exposure to climate change based on the A1 scenario (approximately ‘business as usual’) used by the IPCC 2007.

Source : Adapted from Smith, Dan and Janani Vivekanada, (2007) “A Climate of Conflict: The links between climate change, peace and war”, International Alert

Developing countries: the most at risk Highlights taken from Ch4.Implications of climate change for developing countries. Stern, Nicholas et al. (2006). The Economics of Climate Change (The Stern Review). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Available at: <http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm

• DDeevveellooppiinngg ccoouunnttrriieess aarree eessppeecciiaall llyy vvuullnneerraabbllee ttoo ccll iimmaattee cchhaannggee bbeeccaauussee ooff tthheeii rr ggeeooggrraapphhiiccaall eexxppoossuurree,, llooww iinnccoommee,, aanndd ggrreeaatteerr rreell iiaannccee oonn sseennssii ttiivvee sseeccttoorrss ssuucchh aass aaggrriiccuull ttuurree.

• MMaannyy [[……]] aarree aall rreeaaddyy ssttrruuggggll iinngg ttoo ccooppee wwii tthh tthheeii rr ccuurrrreenntt ccll iimmaattee.. FFoorr llooww--iinnccoommee ccoouunnttrriieess,, mmaajjoorr nnaattuurraall ddiissaasstteerrss ttooddaayy ccaann ccoosstt aann aavveerraaggee ooff 55 %% GGDDPP..

• HHeeaall tthh aanndd aaggrriiccuull ttuurraall iinnccoommeess wwii ll ll bbee uunnddeerr ppaarrttiiccuullaarr tthhrreeaatt ff rroomm ccll iimmaattee cchhaannggee.. FFoorr eexxaammppllee,, ffaarrmm iinnccoommeess wwii ll ll iinnccrreeaassee ppoovveerrttyy aanndd rreedduuccee tthhee aabbii ll ii ttyy ooff hhoouusseehhoollddss ttoo iinnvveesstt iinn aa bbeetttteerr ffuuttuurree aanndd ffoorrccee tthheemm ttoo uussee uupp mmeeaaggrree ssaavviinnggss jjuusstt ttoo ssuurrvviivvee..

• SSeevveerree ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn iinn tthhee llooccaall ccll iimmaattee ccoouulldd lleeaadd,, iinn ssoommee ppaarrttss ooff tthhee ddeevveellooppiinngg wwoorrlldd,, ttoo mmaassss mmiiggrraattiioonn aanndd ccoonnff ll iicctt,, eessppeecciiaall llyy aass aannootthheerr 22--33 bbii ll ll iioonn ppeeooppllee aarree aaddddeedd ttoo tthhee ddeevveellooppiinngg wwoorrlldd’’ ss ppooppuullaattiioonn iinn tthhee nneexxtt ffeeww ddeeccaaddeess..

Source: Stern Review (2006)

The « double headed risk »: The consequences of consequences of climate change include a high risk of armed conflict in 46 countries with a total population of 2.7 billion people, and a high risk of political instability in a further 56 countries with a total population of 1.2 billion.

Source : Adapted from Smith, Dan and Janani Vivekanada, (2007) “A Climate of Conflict: The links between climate change, peace and war”, International Alert.

Source : Smith, Dan and Janani Vivekanada, (2007) “A Climate of Conflict: The links between climate change, peace and war”, International Alert.

Regional “Hot Spots”:

Source : German Advisory Council on Global Change. (2007). “World in transition: climate change as a security risk; Berlin, Germany WGBU.

AAnnnneexx 22 : Africa in focus African vegetation:

Source: UC Berkeley Library Available at: <http://lib.berkeley.edu/EART/vegmaps.html#africa>

African pastoral communities:

Source: Bevan, James (2007) “Between a rock and a hard place: Armed Violence in African Pastoral Communities” UNDP Conference Background Paper. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.

AAnnnneexx 33 : Case study- Uganda, Karamoja

UGANDA Background: The colonial boundaries created by Britain to delimit Uganda grouped together a wide range of ethnic groups with different political systems and cultures. These differences prevented the establishment of a working political community after independence was achieved in 1962. The dictatorial regime of Idi AMIN (1971-79) was responsible for the deaths of some 300,000 opponents; guerrilla war and human rights abuses under Milton OBOTE (1980-85) claimed at least another 100,000 lives. The rule of Yoweri MUSEVENI since 1986 has brought relative stability and economic growth to Uganda. During the 1990s, the government promulgated non-party presidential and legislative elections. Economic overview: Uganda has substantial natural resources, including fertile soils, regular rainfall, and sizable mineral deposits of copper, cobalt, gold, and other minerals. Agriculture is the most important sector of the economy, employing over 80% of the work force. Coffee accounts for the bulk of export revenues. Since 1986, the government - with the support of foreign countries and international agencies - has acted to rehabilitate and stabilize the economy by undertaking currency reform, raising producer prices on export crops, increasing prices of petroleum products, and improving civil service wages. The policy changes are especially aimed at dampening inflation and boosting production and export earnings. During 1990-2001, the economy turned in a solid performance based on continued investment in the rehabilitation of infrastructure, improved incentives for production and exports, reduced inflation, gradually improved domestic security, and the return of exiled Indian-Ugandan entrepreneurs. Growth continues to be solid, despite variability in the price of coffee, Uganda's principal export, and a consistent upturn in Uganda's export markets. In 2000, Uganda qualified for enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief worth $1.3 billion and Paris Club debt relief worth $145 million. These amounts combined with the original HIPC debt relief added up to about $2 billion Transnational issues: Uganda is subject to armed fighting among hostile ethnic groups, rebels, armed gangs, militias, and various government forces that extend across its borders; Uganda hosts 209,860 Sudanese, 27,560 Congolese, and 19,710 Rwandan refugees, while Ugandan refugees as well as members of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) seek shelter in southern Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Garamba National Park; LRA forces have also attacked Kenyan villages across the border Source: CIA The World Factbook 2008 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ug.html

Karamoja region in Uganda:

Source: Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection Available at : <http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/uganda.html>

Increase of drought occurrences in Uganda:

Source: Magrath, John (2008) “Turning Up the Heat: Climate change and poverty in Uganda». OXFAM GB.

Karamoja cluster:

Source: Meier, P., Bond, D., & Bond, J. (2007). “Environmental influences on pastoral conflict in the Horn of Africa”. Political Geography, 26(6), 716-735.

TThheemmaattiicc BBiibblliiooggrraapphhyy GGeenneerraall -- lliinnkk bbeettwweeeenn eennvviirroonnmmeenntt,, sseeccuurriittyy,, aanndd ccoonnfflliicctt:: Barnett, Jon (2001). “Security and Climate Change”, Tyndall Centre Working Paper

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Documentary film available on YouTube, in three parts. Part One: <http://www.youtube.com/v/WI6DOMzcrnI&hl> Part Two: <http://www.youtube.com/v/z0rIlpzz_rQ&hl> Part Three: <http://www.youtube.com/v/_tMTNAbzIpo&hl>

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<http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=78204> “Uganda: Poor hygiene fuelling Hepatitis in north” IRIN. 7 August 2008. Available at:

<http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79682>

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Karamoja!

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crisis. Available at: <http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2006/> Human Development Report 2007/ 2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided world. Available at: <http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/> UNDP intranet resources: “Human Security”- Conflict Prevention, NHDR Thematic guidance note 2004. Access

limited at <http://www.intra.undp.org>