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17 January 2017 Speaker 1 Hein de Haas heindehaas.org Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios

Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

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Page 1: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

17 January 2017 Speaker name

1

Hein de Haas heindehaas.org

Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios

Page 2: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Page 4: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

17 January 2017 Hein de Haas 4

Page 5: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 6: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 7: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Source: Centre for Global Development

Page 8: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Source: Pew Research Center

Page 9: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

So, what has changed?

Neither exodus, nor invasion…

Page 10: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

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82

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84

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86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

EU25 and US immigration, yearly, 1960-2010

EU25

US

Source: Hein de Haas, Simona Vezzoli and María Villares-Varela (2016

forthcoming) Trend and patterns of international migration 1950-2010.

DEMIG working paper. Based on DEMIG C2C data.

Page 11: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 13: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 14: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 15: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 18: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 19: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migratie als veiligheidsgevaar

“Mondiale zekerheden en waarschijnlijkheden” - Eindrapport Verkenningen “Houvast voor de krijgsmacht van de toekomst” 2010, Netherlands Ministry of Defence

19

Migration as a

threat to security (Map produced by Netherlands

Ministry of Defence)

Page 20: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

20

Page 21: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

21

Page 22: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 23: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never migration’

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 24: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Immigration from Suriname

It’s now or never !!!

How the Dutch government stimulated

unwanted migration from Suriname

Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration

across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.

DEMIG Working Paper.

Independence

Page 25: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Immigration from Suriname

It’s now or never !!!

How the Dutch government stimulated

unwanted migration from Suriname

Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration

across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.

DEMIG Working Paper.

Independence

Page 26: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Immigration from Suriname

It’s now or never !!!

How the Dutch government stimulated

unwanted migration from Suriname

Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration

across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.

DEMIG Working Paper.

Independence Visas introduced

Page 27: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Immigration from Suriname

Independence

How the Dutch government stimulated

unwanted migration from Suriname Visas introduced

Returns

Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration

across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.

DEMIG Working Paper.

It’s now or never !!!

Page 28: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never migration’

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 29: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never ‘migration’

3.Interrupting circulation

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 30: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never ‘migration’

3.Interrupting circulation

4.Geographical diversion

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 31: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never ‘migration’

3.Interrupting circulation

4.Geographical diversion

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 32: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 33: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 34: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never ‘migration’

3.Interrupting circulation

4.Geographical diversion

5.Increased role of smuggling

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 35: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 36: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

25 years of Fortress Europe A lethal vicious circle….

Page 37: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

‘Substitution effects’

Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions

1.Category jumping

2.‘Now or never ‘migration’

3.Interrupting circulation

4.Geographical diversion

5.Increased role of smuggling

Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of

international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and

destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2

Page 38: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

DEMIG C2C database - www.imi.ox.ac.uk Estimation de l' émigration basée sur les chiffres d'ímmigration des pays de destination:

FR, BE, NL, IT, ES, DE, DK, NO, FI, AT, CH, US, CA, AU Ligne rouge = moyenne glissante sur 4 ans

Moroccan emigration to OECD countries

Recruit-

ment stop

Visa regimes

S-Europe

Global economic

crisis

Page 39: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

The migration policy paradox

Page 40: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Percentage of population abroad

Guyana

Suriname

The migration policy paradox

Source: Vezzoli 2015

Page 41: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Percentage of population abroad

French Guiana

Guyana

Suriname

The migration policy paradox

Source: Vezzoli 2015

Page 42: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

EU25 migration trends

Immigration

The migration policy paradox

Page 43: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

EU25 migration trends

Immigration Emigration

The migration policy paradox

Page 44: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

EU25 migration trends

Immigration Emigration Within EU25

The migration policy paradox

Page 45: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

45

Page 46: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

3. Development will reduce migration

46

Page 47: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
Page 48: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration as the anti-thesis of development?

Page 49: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

49

Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and

empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international

migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford

The developmental drivers of migration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Very low Low Middle High Very high

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Human development index (HDI)

Immigrants

Page 50: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

50

Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and

empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international

migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Very low Low Middle High Very high

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Human development index (HDI)

Emigrants

Immigrants

The developmental drivers of migration

Page 51: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Destination country drivers of migration

51

Page 52: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

3. Development will reduce migration

52

Page 53: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Myths

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

3. Development will reduce migration

4. Migration can solve the ageing problem

53

Page 54: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970

350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Males Population in Millions Females

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 55: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend - Scenario

350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Males Population in Millions Females

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 56: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend - Scenario

350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Males Population in Millions Females

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 57: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males Population in Thousands Females

China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

World Population ProogramIIASA 2009

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 58: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males Population in Thousands Females

China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend -Scenario

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

World Population ProogramIIASA 2009

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 59: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males Population in Thousands Females

China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend -Scenario

No Education

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

World Population ProogramIIASA 2009

Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009

Page 60: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

Migration Facts

1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

60

Page 61: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high (‘neither exodus nor invasion’), and main changes have been directional

61

Migration Facts

Page 62: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration

62

Migration Facts

Page 63: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Restrictions interrupt circulation, discourage return, push migrants into permanent settlement and encourage smuggling

63

Migration Facts

Page 64: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality

3. Development will reduce migration

64

Migration Facts

Page 65: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality

3. Development drives migration by increasing capabilities and aspirations to migrate

65

Migration Facts

Page 66: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality

3. Development drives migration

4. Migration can solve the ageing problem

66

Migration Facts

Page 67: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high

2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality

3. Development drives migration

4. Migration cannot solve ageing and other structural socioeconomic problems

67

Migration Facts

Page 68: Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios . Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration

17 January 2017 Speaker name

68

Hein de Haas heindehaas.org

Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios