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Migration: Global context, local impact
May 2019
Çağlar Özden and Soonhwa Yi
The World Bank
Why migration?
Why migration?
% giving this
answer
Source:
European Union:YouGov opinion polls, April 18-30 2018
United States: Gallup, Feb 1-10, 2018
Most important issues facing the United States and EU: Immigration
United States 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15
Britain 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 39
France 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 41
Germany 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 43
Italy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 47
Spain 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 26
Poland 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 42
Denmark 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 53
Sweden 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 49
Finland 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 53
Lithuania 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 35
Greece 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 51
Higher
RankLower
Rank
Why migration?
Source: EU Neighbours east. 2018. Annual Survey Report, Moldova – 3rd Wave
(Spring 2018).
An increasingly pressing issue facing Moldova
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
#5
#7
2018 2017
What do you consider to be the most pressing problems facing in your country? (% given the
WHY ARE THERE SO MANY MIGRANTS?
Trillion dollar gain:Wage increase upon immigration to the United States
0% 500% 1000% 1500%
Nigeria
Haiti
Egypt
Vietnam
Ghana
India
Pakistan
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Uganda
Ethiopia
Philippines
Peru
Brazil
Colombia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
Mexico
Argentina
Dominican Rep
Demography is Destiny Global Labor Force is shifting towards Low-Income Countries
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Labor Force Size (%)
High-income World Low-income
Distance Diasporas
Linguistic OverlapViolence
Of course, there are many other factors shaping migration …
ARE THERE REALLY THAT MANY MIGRANTS?
Global Migrant Stocks since 1960…
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Mig
ran
t p
op
ula
tio
n (
mill
ion
s)
Global migrant stocks have not changed much since 1960 as share of world population
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mig
ran
t sh
are
of
po
pu
lati
on
(%
)
Globalization over time – different metrics since 1960
c
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
International Migrant Stock
Foreign Direct Investment, 5-year MA (2010 USD)
Air Passengers
World Trade (2010 USD)
Yet, Moldova seen stocks of emigrants hovering around 20-27 percent of population (depending on definitions and year)
Source: Moldova Border Police Department (BPD). World Bank, United Nations.
753.8
(2015, BPD)
859.4
(2013, WB)
973.6
(2017, UN)
WHAT ARE THE OVERALL PATTERNS OF MIGRATION?
Most migrants travel to neighboring countries.Only the high-skilled travel farther
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15 20
Shar
e o
f gl
ob
al m
igra
tio
n (
%)
Cumulative distribution of migrants by distance
High-skilled migrants Low-skilled migrants Refugees
The pattern appears to hold for Moldovans.
Source: United Nations. 2017.
WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS?
Receiving countries: Immigration has a positive impact on overall wages but lowers the wages of those with substitutable skills
The impact of immigration across education groups
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
High SchoolDropouts
High SchoolGraduates
Some College CollegeGraduates
Post-College All EducationGroups
Sim
ula
ted
wag
e im
pac
t (%
)
Native Workers Foreign Workers
Sending countries: Emigration and development – an inverse U relationship.
Sending countries: High-skilled emigration can hurt sending countries, but diaspora externalities can offset the negative impact.
WHAT MATTERS ARE THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS
EDUCATION INTEGRATION
GENDERINSTITUTIONS
ISSUE #1: EDUCATIONMigrants are more educated than people left behind in origin countries.
ISSUE #2: INTEGRATION Economic Integration determines the overall gains
Immigrant wage gaps since arrival by cohort
Undocumented migrants hit a ceiling in terms of wages
Age-earnings profiles of immigrants and natives by legal status
ISSUE #3 GENDER
Women Icons Award Ceremony
SINGAPORE
Filipino Maids
SINGAPORE
Filipino Students
MANILA
ISSUE #4 INSTITUTIONSExit and voice can be complimentary in bringing political change (Mahmoud et al. 2014)
Source:Mahmoud et al (2014).
#1: Data data data
#2: Disconnect between economics research and politics
#3: Policies cannot defeat market forces
#4: Focus on long term issues and quantify them
#5: Harass the World Bank/IMF/EBRD
CONCLUSION
