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Migration data for Leeds City Region What’s available and what does it tell us?

Migration data for Leeds City Region What’s available and what does it tell us?

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Migration data for Leeds City Region

What’s available and what does it tell us?

Available data‘Easily’ accessible• Population trends, migration estimates and projections• Migrant workers• International students at universities• Pupil first language• National migration trends

Negotiable• Local authority level data on A8 workers• Asylum seekers and some refugees• Locally collected data by individual services

Sources of information and support

Links to:• (Inter)national and local datasets• Local Government Association guide• Commentary on national migration statistics and the

net migration target• Local Information Systems in the region

all can be found in our Introduction to Migration Statistics at: www.migrationyorkshire.org.uk/statistics

New JSNA Guide to Migrant Health (flier in packs)

Local Migration Profile project

Driven by partner agencies struggling to find and use migration data to prepare for migrants in their client groups

Flexible design

Regular outputs combining available data for each local authority area and subregions

Send me everything

How many immigrants are

there?

What’s unique?

Non-specialist audience

Compares different sources

Change over time and space

Compares locality to the regional ‘average’

Regular updates to include new data

Mainstream service applications

General migration background

(internal briefings, media)

Population profiling requirements

JSNA (health), LEA and EIA (LAs)

Targeting specific groups

burglary prevention (housing services), engaging with minority communities (police and fire services)

Research support

local studies (arts and leisure), choosing research sample sites (flooding)

Migrant service applications

Needs assessments for new services

(Red Cross destitution work, Barnardo’s scoping needs of asylum children)

Evidence in grant applications (Police)

Planning for existing services

(languages for translation materials, UKBA LITs)

Improving services

(asylum dispersal sites, improving LA support for vulnerable groups following inspection)

Migration trends in Leeds City Region (1)

Different causes of long-term population changeNatural change (births and deaths) significantly adding to Bradford and Kirklees, but reducing change in CravenInternal migration (within UK) significant in Craven, Barnsley and Selby, but reducing change in BradfordInternational migration adding to population growth everywhere, but significant in Bradford, Leeds and York

Stable net international migration levels in LCR but increasing churn in communities?ONS predicted varied changes at a local level, but overall an increase in both immigration and emigrationBut latest national statistics show less emigration than expected, so net migration may rise

International migration in LCR

Sources: ONS

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Imm

igra

tion

& E

mig

ratio

nTIM Immigration TIM Emigration

Migration trends in Leeds City Region (2)

Predictable levels of international students at university; changes in non-EU student imminent

Fewer asylum seekers and refugeesbeginning to stabilise after significant falls

Accession migration beginning to stabiliseFrom 1440 registrations (Q409) to 1170 (Q110), 830 (Q210) and now 1620 (Q310)

Balance between accession / non-accession migration changing, with increasing non-EU arrivalsTop countries of origin mainly Poland except: Pakistan (Bradford and Kirklees), India (Leeds) and China (York)

International students at university

3.6 Foreign Students - domicile

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Num

ber

of S

tude

nts

EU Non-EU

New arrivals across Leeds City Region2.2 NINo Country of Origin - group

Sources: NIRS

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NIN

o R

egis

trat

ions

Accession Other Europe

Old Commonwealth New Commonwealth

Other

Accession falling

New Commonwealth rising

Gaps in the data

Particular migrant groups:Those joining families already hereFurther education and ESOL learnersPeople with no recourse to public fundsPeople leaving the UK (and by what route)

Alternative migration indicators:Local servicesRegistered employers and education providersLocal research

What’s coming up in 2011?

New inclusion of pupil data in our profiles

Less data? Fewer services producing data, localism drive reducing targets and local government reporting requirements

Ending of transitional arrangements for A8 countries will end WRS data

Net migration target reducing entry through formal routes (work, study, asylum) – other routes of entry?

External influences on migration patterns – A8 economies, north Africa displacement

Our role as data users

Balancing risk…

limited access to sensitive data

political sensitivity and gatekeeping

how much data should we collect?…and benefit:

a more informed ‘debate’ on migration

improved data expertise among migrant services

bridging policy, practice, data and research - better services for whole communities