Migration and the Economy in Cornwall

A quantitative analysis on the relationship between migration and the economy in the small areas of CornwallStuart Burley

Aims & methods

Explore the pattern of migration in Cornwall and the economic implications

Statistical analysis of 1991 census data

Small area analysis, electoral wards Urbanisation & counterurbanisation

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation Operational definitions Urbanisation “a movement from a

state of less concentration to a state of more concentration” (Tisdale 1942)

Counterurbanisation “a movement from a state of more concentration to a state of less concentration” (Berry 1976)

Population change 1981 -1991

-2

02

4

6

810

12%natural change%migration

The migratory profile of Cornwall Cornwall’s population increase over

the last 20 years is solely attributable to migration

Increases by net migration is far higher than the UK average and higher than the South west region

Unemployment in Cornwall 1991

0

2

4

6

8

10

% Unemployed

Male earnings in Cornwall 1991

050

100150200250300350

£ per week

The economic profile of Cornwall Cornwall’s unemployment rates are

far higher than the South west region and higher than the UK

Earnings in Cornwall are lower than the South west region and 22.8% lower than the UK

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Structural disadvantages Geographically peripheral without a

large urban hub Dependence on declining industries –

fishing & agriculture Only seasonal benefits from tourism

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Population-led economic growth

initiatives showed early signs of success

Economic factors, branch closures and relocations

Many former in-migrants now unemployed stayed behind

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Particular type of in-migration Many moving for quality of life motives

rather than economic improvement In-migrants more likely to leave the

labour market than non-migrants Economic benefit of migration may be

dependent on the migratory strategies

Age structure of Cornwall 1991 (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

CornwallUK average

In & out-migration by age, 1991 (%)

01020304050

In-migrationOut-migration

Net change by age, 1991

-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500600700

Net Change

Cornwall as the mirror image of the escalator region Fielding (1992) The South east as an

escalator region Cornwall – the first and last stages of

the escalator effect

Urbanisation – Migrant origins

Urban Wards

75%

25%

All Wards

69%

31%

InternalmigrantsIn-migrants

Urbanisation – Density of internal migrants origins and destinations

15.7

25.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Origin Wards Urban Wards

Persons perhectare

Urbanisation – Age structure of internal migrants

05

10152025303540

Urban internalmigrantsAverage internalmigrants

Urbanisation – Labour market explanations Migration as an equilibrating

mechanism Balances the labour demand

differential between areas Balances the earnings differential

between areas

Urbanisation – Economic indicators of origins & destinations

01020304050607080

Urban wards(destinations)Origin wards

All wards average

Urbanisation – Male earnings 1999

Gross weekly pay full-time workers £

Urban wardsaverage

340

All wards average

348

Urbanisation – Labour market explanations No significant difference in the

economic profile of urban wards and the origin wards

Earnings are slightly lower than average in the urban wards

Little evidence to support labour market explanations

Urbanisation – Semi-detached house prices 1999-2002

Average semi-detached price £

Urban Wards 79,131

All Wards 82,424

Urbanisation – Housing availability

Housing completions 1986-1991

Urban Areas 8,705

All Non-Urban Areas 6,643

Urbanisation – Second homes

% Second homes of all household spaces

Urban Wards 1

All Wards 5

Urbanisation – Housing explanations, tenure

% Rented accommodation

Urban Wards 28.6

All wards 25.2

Urbanisation - Conclusions

Urbanisation of young internal migrants

Housing constraints as the most likely explanations

‘Pull’ of greater affordability and availability of accommodation in urban areas

Counterurbanisation – Migrant origins

Rural wards

62.1

37.9

All wards

69.2

30.8

Internal migrants In-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Density of in-migrant origins and destinations

37.5

0.3

05

10152025303540

Origin wards Rural wards

Persons per hectare

Counterurbanisation – Age structure of in-migrants 1991

05

101520253035

Rural In-migrantsAll In-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Social class of in-migrants

05

1015202530

Rural In-migrantsRural Non-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Economic activity of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

60

65

70

75

80

Economic activity

In-migrantsNon-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Unemployment of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

0

5

10

15

20

Unemployment

In-migrantsNon-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Unemployment of 45-pensionable age in-migrants

020406080

100120140160

% Unemployment of non-migrants

Rural In-migrantsAll In-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Quality of life explanationsReasons for in-migration

% of respondents

Preferred environment 42 %

Rejoin relatives & friends

40 %

Escape urban rat-race 39 %

Enjoyed previous holidays

38 %

Counterurbanisation – House price averages 1991

£ Price semi-detached house

% £ more than Cornwall

Cornwall £48,989

South West £61,073 24.7 %

South East £76,607 56.4 %

Greater London £107,925 120.3 %

Counterurbanisation – Tenure of in-migrants

81 75.6

18.9 24.40

20

40

60

80

100

Owner Occupied Rented

In-migrantsNon-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor High frequency of In-migrants aged

45-pensionable age in rural wards High rates of home ownership High rates of unemployment Moving for quality of life reasons

Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor House price differentials In-migrants release capital through

house price differentials ‘Cash cushion’ Chosen unemployment Pre-retirement fund Semi-retirement business ventures

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications The equilibrating effect of migration on

house prices Destination prices become closer to

the origin prices Increases in the price of rural housing

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation residential property increases 1999-2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

% house price increase

Rural DistrictUrban DistrictCornwall

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications House prices increasing faster than

earnings in the rural areas Increased mortgage gap Housing market disadvantages non-

migrants but has advantages for in-migrants

First-time buyers unable to afford rural housing

Urbanisation of young internal migrants

‘Push’ & ‘pull’ of housing – affordability and availability

Increased urbanisation of young people

Increased demand for employment in high unemployment areas

In-migration increases housing constraints and labour constraints

Incentives for younger people to leave the county

Stream of in-migration – equity rich work poor migrants

Counter-stream of out-migration – economically ambitious young migrants

Opposite of the South East ‘escalator’ An ageing population Increased social welfare costs for a

reducing working-age population