Midland Research Grain Pricing and 2020 Central Illinois ... · Group 2020 Central Illinois Crop Tour Jerry Gidel and Jack Scoville August 2, 2020 Trading. Investments. Advice. Midland

August 6 | 2016

The PRICE Futures

Group

2020 Central Illinois Crop Tour

Jerry Gidel and Jack Scoville

August 2, 2020

Trading. Investments. Advice.

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CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOURMidland Research

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Like many things, 2020 Crop Tour was changed up.

Jerry Gidel & Jack Scoville split up and took two

routes to cover our normal Central Illinois counties.

Jerry took the I-55 corridor to McLean County while

Jack drove the I-57 route to Dewitt County

CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR

Gidel’s first stop was south of Mazon in Grundy County on IL

47. However, this double row planted field turned into head

scratchier on how to determine ear counts so we moved on.

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Just a few miles south, Gidel found a field with a

its own weather station. He made his first ear, row

and kernel counts on 1/1000 of an acre for yield.

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Despite a modest ear count of 27,000/acre, the

strongest row count (18) & 2nd longest kernel length

(44.5) of the tour produced our 2nd highest yield.

Estimated Yield – 254.9 bu.


Sample #1

.


Our next stop was in Livingston County. This late April-early

May field was 8 miles west of Pontiac on IL 116. Plant height

was shorter, but dried silks suggested earlier planting date. .

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Sample #2

This crop was in late dough stage with a 30,000/acre ear count. However, this field had the lowest row count at 14 & its kernel length dropped back to the trip’s average 39.6 kernels.



Soybeans’ clean carpet was this year’s norm with 10% or less

having weeds or volunteer corn. However, the crop appeared

to be shorter than normal and was generally just blooming.

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Continuing to travel

west on IL 116 into

Woodford County, Gidel

turn south on I-39

before turning west on

US 24. After 3 miles, he

found this reminder of

2019’s late planted crop

with virtually white silks.

This is a sign to keep

looking for a more

mature field since you

won’t have anything to

count. .

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Interestingly, the field across the road was likely planted in late

April or early May before cold & wet weather kept planters out

until month’s end. This might have hurt plant emergence, thou.

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Our Woodford County field had a slightly higher row count of 16.5 vs 16 average, but its 27,000 ears and kernel length of 38.3 held its yield back. The blister ear from the other field isn‘t something to use to make a yield count.


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Sample #3


After driving around Bloomington, we turned on US 51 to our

next corn stop about 5 mile south of I-74 in Central McLean

County. Some grasshopper damage on silks was evident.

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This field just off US 51 west of Randolph in McLean County had our first sign of tip back. This Milk/Early Dough corn had the 2nd lowest kernel length of 36.5 and only a 27,000 earcount and kernel length of 35.3. Rows around averaged 17 resulting in just another solid yield.

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Sample #4



2020’s strong green color suggested big yields from the road.

However, our 2 row ear counts averaged 27,800/acre for the

trip vs. 30,900 in 2019. Blanks & nubbins hurt counts.

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This late March field in SC McLean County had numerous pods

on its stems. Given the various row spacing, the USDA counts 10

by 10 feet plots for plants & yield counts.

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This field has great potential, but soybeans don’t offer

an easy approach to measure seed size and pod

numbers for yields. August rains & temperatures will

determine how the US & IL crops finish again in 2020.

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Jack Scoville took the I-57 route South out of Chicago. His first

stop was in Iroquois County. He was on IL 49 when he stopped

for a yield check 3-4 miles south of the Kankakee County Line.

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CENTRAL ILLINOIS CORN TOUR

In a county with an erratic crop tour history because of weather, a solid field check surfaced. Kernel length was strong at 39.2 while its row count was near average at 15.8. However, this field’s 25,500 ear count was 2nd lowest taking the top off the yield.


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Sample #5


Taking IL 54 south into Ford County, this field a few miles

south of Roberts looked encouraging. However, the view

from the road was deceiving. Emergence problems hurt this

field’s ear level resulting in only a 21,500/acre sample count.

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CENTRAL ILLINOIS CORN TOUR

This field sample had a strong ear length of 38.6 Kernels and an average row count of 16, but its poor ear number of 21,500/acre (the lowest of the crop tour) produced the lowest yield of our 2020 trip.


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Sample #6


On Jack’s crop tour of East Central IL, he also saw impressively

clean soybean fields. He did note the crop’s modest height could

be problematic if weather doesn’t promote better August growth.

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Processing down IL 54, Jack stopped at this field 2 miles north

of Bellflower in SE McLean County. It also looked promising

given it dark green color, but its ear length limited its yield.

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This stop 2 miles north of Bellflower in McLean County on IL 54 had our best ear count of 33,000. However, it also had the lowest row & kernel length of the trip at 15 and 35 projecting just a solid yield vs. a big yield.


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Sample #7


Jack continued his trip down IL 54 into DeWitt County seeing

dark green fields out his window. The final stop of his trip near

Farmer City looked promising again.

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His DeWitt County field stop was impressive producing the highest yield of the tour. This sample had the highest kernel (45) length & 2nd highest ear count (31,500) with just an average row count of 16. It has a bit of tip back, too.


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Sample #8


While traveling back to Chicago, Gidel found this field in Ford

County impacted by this summer’s hefty Midwest winds.

Pollination and harvesting issues will hurt its yield, but not

known until fall.

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No sign of this type of dryness on our C. Illinois crop tour this year,

but August’s weather remains important to both the US & Illinois

corn and soybean yields. (Iowa?) A crop’s final test weight and

seed fill is impacted by weather until harvest.

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This year’s C. Illinois crop tour was again a hectic one-day trip to make 8 field stops in the counties surrounding. Bloomington, IL. 2020’s average corn yield returned to low 200’s, but this year’s 3 less ear count isn’t something you will see driving by the dark green fields.

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Because of our tour relative relationship to Illinois’ past August

average yield, a 10 bu. lower state yield is our estimate. Using

current ratings & past Major states’ yields, our US yield is 177.5 bu.

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Given the importance of August weather to soybean yields & the stage of growth (blooming), we don’t make field checks on our tour. However, the visual picture looks perfect from the car window even if a bit short. Keep tuned to the Midwest weather.

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Midland Research Grain Pricing and 2020 Central Illinois ... · Group 2020 Central Illinois Crop Tour Jerry Gidel and Jack Scoville August 2, 2020 Trading. Investments. Advice. Midland